Friday, April 18, 2008

Tata Tele..............

Well Friends,
These first post came on front page of ET yesterday and the second post came in todays ET on front page.Read them properly and then read my comments:

1)Tata Tele to buzz PEs for $1 b :
India Inc Reopened Its Deal Diary With Fresh Fervour.While Cement Majors Get Ready To Mix,A Telco Is Ringing Investors For Capital
R Sriram & Rashmi Pratap MUMBAI
TATA Teleservices is planning to raise more than $1 billion by selling a chunk of its equity to private equity and strategic investors in one of the largest deals in the telecom industry in recent times. India’s second-largest CDMA operator is willing to sell 15-30% to financial and strategic investors to raise money for its expansion in both CDMA and the soonto-be-launched GSM services, people close to the transaction said. This will be one of the largest transactions in the telecom industry in recent times. Bharti Infratel, the wireless tower business of Bharti Airtel, raised around $1 billion from investors such as Temasek in December last year. The Tata Tele deal, which is being run by Lazard, could be bigger than that. Tata Tele wants to bring in a strategic investor and some PE funds. The amount of stake involved could be as high as 25-30%, a person involved in the transaction said. “Tata Teleservices continues to seek appropriate and value-enhancing opportunities that meet its overall business objectives but as a policy, Tata Teleservices doesn’t comment on market speculation,” a Tata Tele spokesperson said. Israeli telecom firm Bezeq is also learnt to be among those interested in buying a stake in TTSL. Bezeq had entered India in the mid-90s by way of a joint venture with HFCL. In 1999, it sold its stake in Fascel (the cellular operator in Gujarat) to Hutchison and left Indian shores. It is now planning a comeback to the world’s fastestgrowing telecom market. Singapore-based Temasek and C Sivasankaran currently hold 9.9% and around 8%, respectively in TTSL. Tata Tele needs funds for GSM rollout in 20 circles
CHENNAI-BASED tycoon Sivasankaran bought over 8% stake in TTSL for Rs 1,200 crore from Tata Sons in March 2006 while Temasek had bought the stake for around Rs 1,500 crore. Siva, as Sivasankaran is widely known, is looking to sell his stake, according to sources familiar with the matter, but has not done a deal as yet. He is believed to be asking for Rs 50 per share, a price that has put off most prospective investors. TTSL, which has a subscriber base of nearly 25 million, offers CDMA-based services in 20 out of 23 telecom circles in India. Early this month, it also received spectrum to roll out operations in the remaining three circles of Assam, North East and Jammu and Kashmir, making it the third pan-India operator after Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Essar. In Maharashtra, including Mumbai and Goa, TTSL’s listed subsidiary TTSL (Maharashtra) provides telecom services. TTSL needs funds to expand its telecom services. Besides starting operations in the three new circles, the telco has applied for GSM spectrum in 20 circles of India, for which it has already received licences. It will, therefore, need more funds to start GSM services as and when spectrum allocation is done. On Tuesday, it received spectrum in Tamil Nadu and Chennai and plans to roll out services before the year-end. TTSL is the fastest-growing service provider, according to a report by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai). Its current market share is nearly 10%. “With increasing market share and future investment plans for network expansion, TTSL has an opportunity to dilute equity stake at a premium,” said Ovum India head (IT & Telecom) Alok Shende. TTSL is, however, still making losses and needs funds for growth. “Tatas have to dilute stake to pump in more money into their telecom venture,” said another analyst on condition of anonymity. Last month, TTSL entered into a brand franchising agreement with Virgin Mobile to offer services of the British company over its infrastructure. “While TTSL has spent a lot in brand building and innovative schemes in the past 2-3 years, it needs to do more to improve market share,” the analyst added.


2)ISRAELI CO EYES 10% IN TATA TELE
Israeli investment firm Koor Industries is interested in buying a 10% stake in Tata Teleservices for up to $720 million, report Kausik Datta & Rashmi Pratap in Mumbai. Koor, controlled by Israeli banking and telecommunications magnate Nochi Dankner, has submitted an ‘initial letter of intent’ for a possible investment of $577-$720m.




My Comments:
I gave a call of Tata Tele at mmb at Rs 27/-.and after that it made a high of Rs 65 and retraced back to23.50 and now again up to Rs 33.80...
Raima and some other friends were asking what to do with Tata Tele.I told them to hold it.
Well, now the news are out.
Now the analysis of the above two post.....
In the second post Israeli investment firm Koor Industries is ready to pay $720 mn for 10% pie....
1)that gives the value of $7200 mn for the company.....as 10 % is worth $720 mn then 100% means $7200 mn...means RS 28,800 cr valuations in Rs.....
2) Now it means that for every shares it is worth Rs 152.39...according to the valuations.... Israeli investment firm Koor Industries ready to pay for...
I am not going to write how I came to this figure....calculate by your self........
Hence I do not see much problem for Sivasankaran for selling his stake at Rs 50/- which he wants....
Tata Tele is also having Tele Towers and they wants to divest some stake in that as well.
I am not writing more as One can read all these things in the above two articles....
I hope those who are holding Tata Tele will have nice sleep now onwards...
As I repeteadly write,hold for 1-2 yrs...... any stocks...
Ahmed and many others were sceptic on Artson Eng,but Ahmed use to write it many times, as it was not getting listed and when get listed it went down horribly.The point here to be noted is that, when Artson Eng is moving in Constant UPPER circuits and it is over 100% from recent low of Rs 22/-,Ahmed is not talking about it...that Rajeev, you were so true on Artson Eng....we were not having the neccesary patience........to hold it.....
Anyway, that is what people are...never remember the successfull call but will point to falied calls immidiately, though they are not actually failed calls.........

16 comments:

  1. Hello Mr Rajeev,
    I m Moin, I was going thru ur MMB homepage and i have been traking ur msgs on MMB , there i got this Blog address which i have started reading daily without fail and i must say that its helping me decide where to invest, why and how. Its indeed a selfless service you are doing thru this Blog and wish you and ur blog all the best. i have been trying to get into Gremach Infra but its in UC ever since i have started reading ur blog. i hope you identify a multibagger and post it very soon so that i can buy before it start showing its true colours. Keep up the Good work.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Rajeev,
    i had a basic question- if Sivasankaran is ready to sell at 50rs / share then why wont Koor Industries buy from him instead of the Tatas at 150 rs/share.
    also do you know which cpy Tata Sky is part of. DTH service is going to explode in india, Tata's seem to be doing better than Dish and with Reliance coming in we should expect Reliance to be there in top 2.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear Rajeev,

    I would like to have some discussion on Tata tele. Hope we have a fruitful discussion.

    TTSL is a company operating pan-India and is not listed. TTML is a subsidary of TTSL, which is listed. Now, TTML has a huge bloated equity of nearly 1900 crores. Currently, the company is operating in net loss. Losses are understandable for the first 2-3 years owning to huge capital investment, and will remain so till the company breaks-even. Having a look at the Results and balance sheet, the operating profits are negated by expenditure and depreciation component. When that start showing profits, will the bloated equity portion not result in a meager EPS?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Rajeev,
    Just wanted to bring to your notice that a few of your earlier recos are seeing some good insider buying:

    Sagar Cement and Sujana Towers.

    Would like your comments on the same.


    Regards
    Raja

    ReplyDelete
  5. Moin,
    I think you are missing something here and at MMB.
    My calls are always almost multibagger.
    I hope you are able to understand what it means.It is more then 2 times....means it can be 3 times, 4 times , 5 times or even 10 times...
    So where is the need for me to write new one....Read all my post backdated and you will get plenty...here at my blog...
    What you have to do is to just see whether they are below my recomended price, if yes then they are buys.....

    ReplyDelete
  6. HI Raja,
    Sagar Cement I recomended at Rs 40 and it is now over 400.
    Sujana Tower I recomended at Rs 200 and it is available at half....so what one is waiting for...?
    One have to just buy it....try to google and find the website of Sujana Towers....Try to see the cleintals list....
    I will not go for Sagar Cement now as it has already proved a big multibagger from where I gave a call.
    The key is to buy them Low.....no use buying high....

    ReplyDelete
  7. Rajeev
    Are you referring to Sujana Universal or Sujana Metal ?Could not find Sujana towers....

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Shruti,

    Find Sujana Towers at the following link.

    http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/power-transmissionequipment/sujana-towers/16/33/ST18

    ReplyDelete
  9. Shruti,
    I think u have not tried to find Sujana Towers properly.
    Seems either you are absolutely new or have not tried to find it seriously.
    OK, I will tell you what one has to do for finding stocks.
    1)Go to www.bseindia.com site and write Sujana or first 3 words of the co name in the empty box and click...A new page will open with the name list if they are more then one.Like in Sujana there are 3, viz:Sujana Metal,Sujana Uni, Sujana Tower....click on Sujana Tower and a new page will come where u will find the quotes of that day's price.
    If you will look into it you will also find the stats of delivary Vol,Total Vol, 52 Week H/L and under that you will also find ....Results, Annoucement, Share Holdiong Pattern etc ...click there which u wants to see.....
    2)Read Economics Times....
    There is a quotation Page everyday and go to "S" Index and find Sujana Tower there as well.
    3) Buy a Capital Market Magazine:
    Therein they give Scoreboard in almost in the middle of the magazine....
    Again here go to Index which is written at the end of gthe scoreboard.Find Sujana Tower there and find the Industry in which is placed...Go back and see the no of Ind and u will find Sujana Towers there...
    4)And last what Vasanth suggest...Go to moneycontrol site and have a look....
    Each page of Moneycontrol is having a alphabetical written for companies....at the extrem end of any page...click on any alphabet which stock u need to see....a new page will come and a list of all stocks will come.Say you wrote "S", then all stocks names of S will come , find Sujana Towers there...

    Shruiti,I will like to have feed backs written here whether you have done all or any of the above...and find Sujana Towers...
    I would personally like you to have go for all the above optoins...from 1 to 4....

    ReplyDelete
  10. dear rajeev,
    I have start reading ur comment at money cotrol from oct. . i was not knowing abt. ur past success and when u actually u have given the buy call at artson and other script.
    i have seen ur call on artson at 92 and i bought at 90. i have sold my half quantity at 42 as it doubled from recent bottom 22.5. now holding rest half.

    Ahmed

    ReplyDelete
  11. Dear rajeev,

    let me tell u one thing 70% of my portfolio consisted of ur script that too i bot in nov,dec,jan.

    1. allied bought at 60 exited half at 33. half i bought SBTL.
    2. Tata tele bought at 45 exited at 38 in recent fall, now seeing ur message again thinking to buy it back.
    3. jayaswal bought at 53 exited at 38 during recent run.
    4. flex food bought at 24 holding.

    only in xl tele i got benefit which i bought at 128 but sold early at 220 but bought very less quantity.

    Ahmed

    ReplyDelete
  12. Ahmed,
    It is pity that dispite of mine writing to hold stocks for atleast 1-2 yrs, you all ends up buying and selling early.
    I can't help here....
    Recent post of Warren Buffet which I have posted also sayd that Warren bot Petro China shares for $500mn and sold them after 5 yrs at $4 bn...It implies that big return is always made while hodling LT....

    ReplyDelete
  13. ya u are absolutely right rajeev bhai. Actually i have to learn patience.
    learning from u and other senior member. May this time by blessing of god i will beat the Dalal streat.

    Ahmed

    ReplyDelete
  14. Ahmed,
    When someone writes I didn't made profit on my call, I feel very bad....
    We are here to earn and not loose.
    I would like and love all my readers making money.....

    ReplyDelete
  15. dear rajeev bhai,
    Actually i don't want to show that i have not mad profit on ur call.
    let me tel u some recent +ves.

    i have recently bought some script from ur list.

    1. on ispat as i have ask the Q. and after reading ur comment i have convinced and bought it at 29.5 .
    2. recently i have added TTML at 33.70.
    3. assam company i bought at 25.5.

    now let me tel u i have recovered well because of ispat and i bought it just because of ur call.

    one more thing i want to ask abt. assam company at wat price we can add it more. i bought it at 25.5.

    thnx for ur gr8 timely call. this time ur buy call are at right time and have mad entry at right time.
    some more script i have bought recently please give ur view about all.

    1. walchand nagar at 380.
    2. garware walrope 121.
    3. yuken india at 181.
    4. rama papper at 23.4.

    Is it right time to book part of profit?

    Ahmed

    ReplyDelete
  16. Ahmed,
    That is absoluetly your choice to book profit or not....

    ReplyDelete