Can Oil go below $100......!..
I think Oil is going up on speculation more then a on demand getting more then supply.
I have heard that some $600 bn has been in commodities market including crude as major contributary.The Oil price rise seems to me more speculative then due a reason for lack of supply.
Goldman Scahs being the biggest speculator in Crude it seems that they wants to get out in big profit and hence gave a target of $200 for crude so that they can sell.
Crude and commodities cannot be held physically.....
Well, and hence unlike stock market,crude or commodities cannot be sold physically to break the price nor can market speculator can buy crude physically and corner it and take the price high to some astronomical level.....
So no one in the world is holding commodities physically and as all and sundry has taken long postion especially in Crude which rose almost by over $30 within a couple of months is a big big return in comparision what FII's ,Hedge funds use to get 10% in a whole year....and hence 30% in couple of months by far the biggest and hence it is time for them to unwind their long position.....
It seems that the Oil bubble is going to come to an end anytime and should retrace it gains.....How much it can retrace is anybodies guess and when the prices goes up fast and soon what happens to the price is wellknown by Indian Investors.....
These is one of the reason why I am now becoming bullish on Indian Market.....
and as Oil should comes down....I think if that happens then I think we are all very smart to assume.....what can happen to our market.....
Rajeevbhai:
ReplyDeleteI agree with you , Oil bubble should burst after speculation.
Any idea about Cerebra Integrated
thanks,
Hiren
Yes Hiren,
ReplyDeleteIt can double from here.....
ya sure! oil prices will surely double from here.
ReplyDeleteenjoy cairn india!!!
i have been following this blog for a a long time. in fact i have been following mr. rajeev desai on mmb before that. there is no doubt that i have benefited immensely by his stock picks. as many of u r aware he as an uncanny ability to pick fundamentally sound great emerging stories. we all need to thank him for the yeomen service he has been doing for retail investors.
ReplyDeletewhile i have used his stock picks profitably i must say that my strategy has been techno-fundamental, quite different from the strategy he advocates. he advises a buy and hold strategy ---
he advocates sell half the holding when the stock doubles and hold on to balance. u all know that he has a total aversion to technical analysis and believes that it is all fraud.
my experience has been somewhat different. i have taught myself technical analysis from the web resources--there a lot of them .i realized that there are lot of people who have made fortunes based on technical analysis, although perhaps not as much or as many as those who made fortunes based on pure LT fundamental . the essentials of the strategy i have followed is based on the following
- when u make an investment decision and buy a stock there can be only four outcomes-- a small profit, a small loss, a big profit or a big loss. It is vitally important to avoid the last outcome ( big loss) to ensure capital preservation. hence stop loss is a must. i follow a SL on closing basis and also follow the trailing stop loss principle.
- discipline is vital. must sell on a sell signal or a stop loss hit even if u are taking a loss-- remember u r avoiding the big loss outcome or accepting that u have made a mistake--- u cant fight the markets.
- buy low and sell high ( what every one preaches). enter a stock only on a trend reversal or a trend continuation signal after a correction. decide and write down the stop loss at the time of entry. sell on a sell signal or SL.
- enter only fundamentally sound stocks. Avoid low volume stocks that may prove to be difficult to exit when u hit a stop loss.
- money management is important not more than 5-7 percent in any one stock and well diversified portfolio. mr desai emphasizes this over and over again.
I am writing all this here because i have made very good profits on stocks recommended by him-- i must admit i made small losses in a few. eg allied computers entered at 64 and exited at 59. i am waiting for a buy signal to enter now. to elaborate my strategy, as a case in point i would cite one example. TTML
- entry 27 sep - rs 28 levels
- exit 03 oct- 43
- entry 09 0ct- 39
- exit 31 oct- 45
- entry 14 nov- 43
- exit 17 dec - 57
- entry 28 dec - 60
- exit 08 jan - 61
- entry 26 mar - 28
- exit 07 may - 36
TTML has again given a mild buy signal on 05 Jun but no guts to enter as the sensex indicates relentless bearish signals on 05 may, 26 may and 03 jun.
( in some other stocks i have rentered at a higher price after selling at a lower price and still made eventual profits. )
I know very little about fundamental analysis. I rely on stock picks by mr rajeev desai and a few others like him-- all from the net. In the last 12 months i have entered 12 stocks suggested by him. I am sitting on 60 percent profit as of now ( after contributing a little over 10 percent towards brokerage !!!) As of now I am on 80 percent cash. I was 90 percent invested in Jan. I sold out nearly nearly 80 percent of my holdings on Jan 15, well before the fall.we all knew that the market was overheated and the sell signal on the sensex chart on jan 15 was was ominous.
I beleive the markets will go down to 14000 and if that is breached to 12500. this bear phase may last for another 3-6 months. As for LT I entirely agree that we may well hit 27000 in about 2 years.
the system works for me -- but i am an amateur and i dont have the guts or the confidence to advice any body. In the end i must thank mr rajeev desai for his grt picks again. i must also apologise because he hates technicals. but i wd like his fans ( i am one) to know that all technicals are not fraud, specially when combined with sound fundamentals.
Azad
Dear Mr Azad,
ReplyDeleteYou have come out with a wonderfull revealation.
I am happy to note that you have beniffted from my calls.
I have never said Technicals analysis is a fraud.I only meant to say that it is not 100% and 100% is fundamentals.
You yourself have written that you bought high which you sold low……
that it is technically sound and has also become fundamentally sound.
That is what I wants to avoid.You maybe an expert to buy same stocks you sold but not all has the ability to sell one stock and buy it again when it comes down.
I can give numerous example that shows that once sold it can never be bought again as we buy something else from that money and that stock also comes down and then the previous stock goes up and we remain holding that new one in loss and we go on repenting why I sold that stock.
And that happens with everybody and that includes you as well as you have written you have to buy that stock high which you sold low……
Technicals are only for traders.Day to day traders……or for only very ST traders who plays for a month or two in which they invest crores or lacs and gets out for a return of 30-40 %.
Immense wealth is made only by holding long….Long means 5 yrs –10 yrs…..
Rakesh Juhnjhunwala bought BEL at rs 30 in 2000 era when IT was shining.He hold it for 6-7 yrs to see the profit.He never sold BEL on any decline.He bought Titan at Rs 70 and sold only after many fold , above 1K.
I have never heard him selling his core holding like Titan, Praj,Punj,Nagarjun Cont, BEL in a big way.He play ST on technicals but not with core holding.
Coming on low vol..I do not give much importance on that.When the stock is unknown Volume are low.It is after it comes on radar of some operator it gathers volumne.
I never get dettred to buy a stock on low Vol.They follow lateron when the true worth of the company is known to all.
I almost never buy stock on brokerage recommendation.When they recommends, their PMS clients have already taken a position and after some more upside they will unload their holding.The real acumen is to find a Gem from a Coal Mines and we hold low and then a brokerage firm comes out with a buy call…
I think Flex Foods,Asian CERC, Jayaswal Neco, Artson Eng , etc are such stocks where lots of steam is left and can be big big big multibagger in 2 yrs time.
I have always advocated that sell 50% on double. Most probably the stock I recommend double and can go up many a times but we should take out our money and hold the rest to get the maximum.
That is the best strategy at any given time.
Once sold , that stock can never be bought again.Rarely that happens.Gone is gone as we buy something else, we do not keep money with us.
Have anyone heard Warren Buffets selling stock of Kraft Foods though it is not moving up ?Heard Warren Buffet buying Wringly co stake even in bad times in USA…what this shows?Heard RJ selling all his stake though he was knowing that market is going to remain bad for a year?He said that on CNBC last Diwali, didn’t he?Heard he sold 70-80-90% ?As you wrote you were 90% cash?Don’t tell me , he must be , because a slightest sell , media will come out and say Rakesh sold heavily…..and is now 80% cash….
His close collogue Mr Ramesh Damani is also not 80% cash.He is now 20% cash….
Good stocks are not for sell.They are hold for LT come what may.
Think yourself lucky that you sold in Jan.Timing the market is not easy.If you can do time and again then you come in a Genious category.Even Warren Buffet can’t do.
With lots of arguments that US economy will be in dumps,Warren Buffet is still buying stocks…
Buying and selling frequently is not a great way to create a wealth.
This are my views and everyone must have his own way of dealing and how to play the game.Comfort level is very important.
I hail your confession and thanks you that you wrote it here.
I wish you Best Of Luck in stock market.
thats a great post from Hiren and Rajeev. I always used to wonder how to use TA with FA. Ramesh Damani seems to have the right strategy of using FA to identify stocks to buy and TA on when to buy.
ReplyDeleteStill wondering what will cause the oil bubble to prick, with so many asian countries following the subsidy model thus keeping the demand high when in reality demand should have brought it down. probably collapse of an economy or section of an economy like in 1970s when US Import Economy collapsed to bring the Oil Prices down.