Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Sujana Towers and Ennore old call.....

What is happening in these 2 counters!
See, that is how it happens.I think in just 15 days to 1 months Sujana has moved from 50 to 129!That is market.Ennore Coke has closed at 144.
So, from my call for Ennore Coke 1 has come ahead of 42 means 142.I wrote recently many times, Ennore Coke looks good.
Sujana Towers after lots of consolidation for many months moved very very fast.That is how it happens in market.Stock stakes time to consolidate and then fires all cylinders.Sujana has taken all by surprise.The movement was very fast.It kept on moving up and up.It went up like a rocket givng no chance to buy.Those who sold to bookprofit in Sujana Towers lost the delivery .Those who thought let me BP at 90 as it has almost doubled, it went even much much higher then that letting the delivery sold out what ever left with small if someone wants to buy will he be able to buy at 129?Never....who will buy at 129!So the delivery is gone.....your holding in Sujana Towers has trimmed down.
Ennore Coke after moving to 95-100 range and retracing back to 80-85 consolidating for 2-3 months has started firing.When Haldia Coke and Chemical, the sub Co of Shri Ram EPC gr took over from Shriram EPC all its stake of 60% they did it at market rate and that was between 90-100.That was giving me the clue that Ennore Coke should not come down more and will move ahead anytime soon and that ultimately come true.I still like Ennore Coke beacause they are doubling the capacity of Wellman Coke and also Ennore Coke.
The thing which I like about Ennore Coke is the Eq is just 15 cr while Guj NRE Coke is 534 cr and the Mcap is more then double of sales in Guj NRE Coke while we can see in Ennore Coke the Mcap is still less then the sales.So Ennore Coke needs higher discounting then Guj NRE Coke.
Sujana Towers is one of my favourite stocks which I kept on recomending here time and again.
I have observed that my calls sometimes remains dorment for months or yrs togather but when they takeoff there is no looking back.
So patience is neccesary in market.Those who have no patience will be a loser here.
I am seeing YashRaj Containuer coming up as well.Today it was in UC at Rs 36.05.
Rathi Steel has also moved from my call at 21 to now at 29 andd long way to go........cheapest steal stock going abegging......


  1. Ennore Coke Highlights are as follows:

    FY2011 : Turnover would be around 500-700 crores depending on Coke Prices if prices move to 300 USD then 700 crores

    FY2012: Turnover would be around 1,200-1,300 crores

    Thats gives us the company at a stone throw valuation of 186 cores market cap

    Now as my mentor/friend Rajeev says

    Gujarat NRE Coke Market Cap is 2.4 times higher that Sales.

    Ennore Coke: Market Cap is .6 times Sales, that means upside is still 1.5 times to catch up with valuations of Gujarat NRE Coke in terms of last year sales of 389 crores.

    Ennore Coke in FY2012 would post sales of 1,200-1,500 crores.
    So Market Cap on the basis of Gujarat NRE Coke should be around 2.4 times of Sales; That is equal to 3,000 crores atleast (i took 2 times)

    Current Market Cap = 189 Crores
    FY2012 Market Cap Should be = 3,000 crores giving it Gujarat NRE Coke Valuation

    Remember Stocks can give far higher valuation also.

    Parent of Ennore Coke is very important here, It comes from the Grand Old House of "Shriram Group" Which itself inspires a name of trust & dedication.

    Subsidiaries of lovely Parents which are in extremely good business command much more than 2 times sales.

    So it can easily do 3-4 times of sales eventually as Parent/Business Model & Management is very important.

    All in All- Never Sell Ennore Coke for atleast 3-4 years in the upcoming to utilize the full potential of Ennore Coke

    Rest of it..Already Rajeev Ji has commented.


  2. Dear Rajeev sir,

    Have you seen Avon Corp. It seems interesting but I do not know the details. Face value 10, trading at 5.40 div of 30 paisa. Only concern is prom hold of 11% odd. Also GDR given at Rs 10 ( 44%)
    Looking forward to your reply. I hope you also got my email about my visit to the PSL AGM.



  3. Hi Rajeev,
    Jyoti Ltd and Artson are closing near and above new highs every week. And Rathi buzz is just icing on the cake. For me, the hardest part of investing has definitely been learning to HOLD a stock, waiting for it to be noticed. I have learned that by reading your articles.

    Hi Mitz,

    Happy to know that you took the trouble of attending PSL AGM. Could you post your thoughts about it here also? I remember you once wrote you bought OM Metals at Rs 16 or lower, so many congrats to you! But the management comes too often on the business channels.

  4. Here is a nice article which I read.
    Are you making these investing mistakes?
    We are all investors. That is why we read up on the markets. Accept stock advices. Invest our hard earned money. Track our investments. Go berserk when the investments don't perform. Celebrate when they do perform. The bottom line is we are investors.

    So what are the common mistakes that 'we' (investors) as a community make? In this article we'll go through some of the most common investing mistakes and how to avoid them.

    1. Overconfidence: It is in human nature to think of ourselves to be superior to our peers. When we do something and it goes right and this trend continues, we start attributing this to our 'greatness'. Not to our skills. Not to the environment. Most importantly not to the guidance or help that we may have received. We start confusing luck with skill.

    This is one of the biggest mistakes we make while investing as well. If we invest in a stock and the prices go up, we will start thinking that this is a trend. The price will continue to go up. Therefore, we suffer major shocks and potentially major losses, when this trend breaks and the stock price comes crashing down.

    Solution: Valuations. This age old concept can actually bail us out and prevent us from falling into the trap of overconfidence. How does this work? It is simple. When valuations of the stock get stretched, it is time to sell. The stock may go up even after we sell. But, it is important to understand that this will not continue to happen indefinitely. Eventually valuations will start to kick in and the prices will start to fall. Better to be safe than sorry and sell when the valuations get expensive.
    2. Do something, anything: All gurus of value investing talk about the stockmarkets as a mythical creature called Mr. Market. This devious little creature is there to trick investors. The worst part is that he is extremely good at his job and pretends to be an investor's friend. The fact is that Mr. Market wants the investor to do something. Anything as long as it is an action. He will be charming, convincing, scary, intimidating - everything to force you to act. What he does is to force you to buy when the prices are at its peak and to sell when the prices are at its bottom. Common sense can tell us that this is ridiculous business practice. You buy when the prices are low and sell when the prices are high. That is the only way to make money.

    Solution: Mr. Market can hurt us only if we allow him to do so. When he is depressed and scary, he is giving you investment opportunities at great prices. This is the time to buy. When he is exuberant, he is giving you the opportunity to sell your stocks. This is the time to sell. The bottom-line is having patience. The right opportunity will come. We have to understand that investing is like raising 'teenagers'. It is interesting along the way as they grow into fine adults. Experienced parents don't focus on the short term dramas and hiccups. They focus on the long term.
    Contd ...

  5. 3. Charting and trends: Psychologists have identified a tendency in people that they tend to think that they have control in situations when in fact they have none. This is why many investors turn to charting. They identify "patterns" and "supports" in historical prices to tell them what the future will hold. But the truth is these are patterns of history. Not of the future. The likelihood of history repeating itself in the future is very low. We must understand that charting is like astrology. Only one in a thousand astrologers is correct. This is the same case in charting. There is no dependable way to predict the future movements of a stock's price based on its historical movements.

    Solution: Rely on fundamentals. Fundamentals define the value of the stock that you own. In the long run, the fundamentals will get reflected in the price of the stock. This is the best way to maximize your returns.

    4. Brokers: There is an interesting joke on brokers. "Define a broker - someone who helps you go broke". We know this is not a laughing matter but time and again this definition has unfortunately proved itself to be true. As a professional, the broker is focused on earning money for himself. The only way in which he can do this is by earning a commission fee on the transactions carried out by his clients. By his clients we mean the investors. So to earn his own income, he has to make sure that the investor keeps on carrying out a transaction in the market. This could be selling or buying. Either way a broker, just like Mr. Market, forces his clients to do something in the market. And just like following Mr. Market's advice, this something can actually end up in losses for the investor.

    Solution: Use your own judgment when it comes to investing in stocks. After all it's your money.

    We hope having identified the common mistakes, investors would avoid making them. Happy investing!

  6. Dear Rajeev
    am a new reader of your blog. glad to see so many users/followers. would like to check with you on following. please throw some valuable suggestions on following, if you are tracking any of these.
    1. vikash metal vs rathi steel
    2. jyoti structures or kalpataru vs sujana
    3. ks oil?

  7. Hai Rajeev,

    Whats your view on Subex... I have some investments, so thought of asking your advice



  9. Dear RajeevBhai ,

    You had already recommended Yashraj Containers long time back . But answering to one of the blog-reader's query, you had advised to switch from Yashraj to Rathi. But now the volumes have picked up and market seems to fancy this stock. Hence do you suggest to take the plunge now into Yashraj Containers (cmp of 33) though your recommendation was around 23 ??? I do hold Rathi Steel.

    Waiting for your valuable feedback.


  10. mech,
    Yashraj moving shows something is coming up which investors do not know or there can be nothing.
    I would still go with Rathi Steel..

  11. Dear JC,

    With permission of Rajeev sir would like to post the message about my visit to the AGM of PSL.

    It was a pleasure to visit the AGM and meet the management of m/s PSL Ltd.

    At the very beginning we were informed about their new achievement of API 5L X 80 which is the highest quality of pipe manufactured in the world. They are first company in India to develop this and join a select few companies in the world to have this capability.

    Generally it is observed that a higher quality product always costs more. However in this case it is exactly the opposite and the cost is going to be 15% lower to the user.
    It is also environmentally friendly as it uses almost 30% lesser iron ore due to lower steel consumption.

    They are expecting it to do wonders for their company in the long run and they should get several orders based on this cost cum quality advantage.

    Before I speak of the positives let me talk of a few concerns.

    a) The Topline for this financial year is expected to be flat due to heavy competition and slowdown in orders.

    b) They have completed the huge order that they had received from M/s Florida gas Co in their US factory and now awaiting new orders. So basically their US plant is currently lying idle.

    Due to this I have to agree with a few boarders that the stock price of PSL can be subdued till sometime. But the stock markets are funny; one can never say anything for certain.

    For all you know it is purposely being kept this way. No big news or announcements and even when it announces orders worth 565 cr the share price actually falls down. I have seen this happen with so many good stocks. They are kept down intentionally for accumulation.

    Its like a spring. You keep taking a stock lower and lower and finally when the buying is over the spring is released and the stock price just flares up. Just like it happened in sujana towers and parekh aluminex as Rajeev sir pointed out.

    The current unexecuted order book is at 1500 cr and they expect another 500 cr odd worth of orders in the next couple of months as they are lowest bidders.

    Coming to debt. They have done a lot of research and have added a lot of capacity in diverse locations across India for which a lot of funds have been taken. As and when the capacity gets used up they will be in a position t pay off their huge debt. No Fresh capacity has been planned for the near future.

    Infact PSL is the only company in the world which has the capability to shift their manufacturing plant from one location to another.

    Thus they are shifting some capacity to Chennai and Jaipur from some other locations as they consider the next leg of pipeline development to take place in the country in these regions.

    Coming to Om Metal. My purchase was at Rs 6 and I still hold quite a few shares. Ofcourse my cost is minus now because of the huge run up.

    I hope Rajeev sir keeps coming our with blockbusters like sujana twrs, parekh aluminex, snl bearings, ennore coke etc etc so that all his followers benefit immensely.

    I hold in bulk shares like psl, rathi steel, roit ferro, srei infra and some qty of spanco and venus remedies.

    Since Rajeev sir has recommended these (except rohit ferro) I am sure they will all fire up in future like all his previous picks.

  12. Rajeev,
    Your recommandation NU TEK INDIA got doubled.
    Just too good. I took 50% profit booking making rest as free. Again BIG thanks to u.

  13. Thanks Mitzz for sharing PSL AGM information.
    Please keep updating.

  14. sir i found a list form capital market as you recommended in your earlier post to read that magzine
    Eimco Elecon (India)
    Suryalakshmi Cotton Mills
    Timken India
    MBL Infrastructures
    Sutlej Textiles and Industries
    IL&FS Transportation
    FAG Bearings India
    Rishi Laser
    KEI Industries
    if any of stock as listed above in your radar please give gyan on it at what level one should enter... so that we all can benefited from these multibeggars if any one hidden gem in these :-) waiting for your comments......

  15. rocky,
    u find these stocks in CM.You read the contents.Now what more you want to take the decision?Can't you analyse by your own whether which stocks you need to buy and which not to?
    What you are asking is spoonfeeding to a grown up man.....not child but man....take your own decision....u keep on asking about Indo Solar as well....whether u should wait for it to come down or buy now etc etc.....
    Whether Indo Solar will come down more or not how can I know?I am not market and market or stocks do not move as per me....
    So if I am not answering your query it means I do not want to answer so please don't keeep on asking....I have no time to give reply on quesries which have no meaning or where decision needs to be takeen by readers....
    If I am going to tell when to buy and when to sell then what you are going to do?

  16. Rajeev,

    Is sujana towers a hold for now or partial profit can be booked to make rest of the shares FOC?
    I am holding it at a rate of 15.

  17. LTP,
    Aree yar...tum sab muje pagal kar do ge.When u have bot at rs 15 what u r waiting for?if u sell even 15% of ur holding ur 85% holding becomes FREE....please don't ask me such questions....when one has bot at 15 why one has to ask for what to going totally crazy...