Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Why we miss Multibaggers...............

I have been trying to find this answer since long.
Why small investor miss finding multibagger?What are the reason why it doesn't come to us?What wrong we do?
I feel that as a small investor or as being a smart investor we miss it.We ask too much questions.Questions are neccessary but should not be a hinderence  of picking a multibagger.
Why we do not have stocks like Infosys Techno?Why we don't have stock like Wipro?Why we don't have stock like Delta Corp?Why we don't have stock like Keleidoscope?Why we don't have stock like Kwality Dairy?Why we don't have stock like Symphony Comfort?
This type of stock is not with Institution nor with HNI's or DII's.Why that happens?
The reasons are many like:

We ask too many questions.We try to go in looking BV, RONW,Earnings, Debt,Inventories , Management etc etc.....and I feel that one of the most valid and concrete reason is looking at the management.
Score of multibagger smart investors missed ( mostly who are MBA's, CA's,degree in Finance) has lost that opppertunity.
Why we lost the oppertunity?becuase we went on looking at the management.Smart investor didn't buy Infosys because the management was unknown.Smart investor didn't buy Kaleidoscope because  there was nothing in the Balance sheet.Smart investor didn't buy Kwality Dairy or Sumphony Comfort because they were not able to forsee the growth of the branded product.
Question asking is good but should not become a benchmark to choose a stock.Investing is just not Books.It is common sense as well .
I have seen reports from brokerage houses.They keeps on writing all statistic.Long long report full of figures.The discription part is very less.That makes no sense to me.Even if there is discription , then that can be found from the website.
I have seen no report barring some exception which gave multibagger return.The reason that happens is the report comes way after the stock is up by 5- 10 times and then the return is limited too.A normal return of 30-40% in a year or two.
The key is to pick a stock on a very nascent stage.The acumen is in identifying stock which can give 10-20 times return but majority of us fail to identify it.
But no one ask this question to themselve that why that is not happening to us.What wrong procedure we are following that we miss those stock.One need to do self introspection.
But the human ego is such that it never let you think the correct way.
We never confess our mistakes . One need to be good at heart for that.That should be first criteria for coming to self introspection.But we never confess out mistakes.We cheat our selves saying, oh, that was not a big deal and I haven't done anything wrong.We defend ourselve by blaming others. That is the worst way of thinking.And then the time comes we never feel guilty of wrong doing or hurting someone.Then it becomes our way of life.We becomes so self centered that we don't see whether we are hurting someone.....We start finding reasons why we did that and justifies our wrong doing....

We need to think on that. I even go and say to that extend to even those financial Wizard( MBA's, CA;s, etc) that find why you are not able to pick such stocks? Find out the reason.What is wrong in coming to pick up stocks that the multibaggers stocks are eluding them.
But who cares ?All wants to have their own way of pie of commission or pay or salary.They invest peoples money.They get salary for that.Now what return investor will get from their fund who cares.
I liked the way Vikram Pandit did it.He said he will take just $1 as salary untill Citi gr do not come in black for 3-4 qrs   and he did exactly what he said.Took salary of $1 for 2 yrs.How many fund managers do this.Ofcourse what he did was a routine things to bring back the Citi gr in black like trimming down the expenses by laying off employees, selling assets etc....
Well, coming back to, why we are not able to hold multibaggers, the other reason I am seeing is we sell them feeling them as fully priced.I am sure there can't be a single person who must be not repenting why he sold that stock which gave multibagger return after selling.Why we sell a multibagger?We become expert.We start thinking about the valuation.We feel that it has runup fast and so we need to sell and we can always buy later.But that never happens as when we sell we buy something else.
As I have written  in my post of " How to pick a Multibagger" the eq is very important.Small eq has always advantage.BV is another point to look at.Promoters stake over 70% is a huge huge positive......visit my post of "How to Pick Multibaggers" again....
If we take a recent call of Digjam Ltd which I gave, it is a loss making Co but it is a branded product and coming from non other then Birla.Digjam Ltd can become a future multibagger.But the thing is when a stock is in 10's range no one believe it and then after 3-4 -5 yrs when it becomes multibagger , we repent.


  1. buy today 1000 shares of digjam ltd for long term


  2. Rajiv, if e-waste mgmt is best growth sector, which one is better

    Infotrek(Eco Recycling) - focused e-waste mgmt player
    Cerebra - Mehboob Irani's recommdation

  3. http://www.techno-preneur.net/information-desk/sciencetech-magazine/2010/jan10/E-Waste/E_wate.html

  4. Sameer,
    I don't track this sector at all.I know nothing about Ewaste.Even after reading your link , I still am not convinced about the growth of this sector.
    So can't give view either on Infotrack or Cerebra...

  5. Rajeevji, I have taken a position in BPL and patiently waiting for it to come good. I have been tempted to average it but been waiting for it to find it's bottom. Are there any inputs on the stock?

  6. C C Roy,
    It is neccessary to be able to evalute the value of brand as well and what can be the future of it.
    I once wrote about BPL that they are coming back but not sure of latest update on that.....

  7. Hi C C Roy,
    I just went through the results of BPL on bse.There is an OI of 137 cr.Looks like they must have sold some land or office something like that.
    But it looks like manegement is doing right things to bring back the old glory of BPL.An eq of 48 cr is good for a Co like BPL.I liked that too.
    While going through the results I saw that there is no big accumalated loss.I am not sure about any hidden loss which is not shown in results.
    If someone can or you can point out then I will appreciate that.
    I think it is time to revisit my post on BPL again and look what they wanted to do and try to foresee if that will come good....

  8. http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2011/06/few-people-have-gotten-rich-off.html?spref=bl

    could be helpful

  9. Rajeevji, I will wait for the balance sheet to understand the numbers more in detail. Thanks for information and the view

  10. Hi Rajeev,

    GMM PFAUDLER Ltd looks interesting with very low equity and high promotor stake. Please take a look at it.