Sunday, June 5, 2011

‘China slowdown may lead to 75% dip in commodities’...

BLOOMBERG London, 4 June

A SUDDEN slowdown in China may lead commodity prices to fall as much as 75 per cent from current levels, Standard & Poors said.
Unexpected shifts in government policies or problems in the banking sector may trigger such a slowdown, S&P said in a report e-mailed today. The floor for aluminum is 65 cents to 70 cents a pound ($1,433 to $1,543 a metric ton), compared with about $1.20 a pound now and coppers floor is $1.50 to $1.75 a pound, compared with $4.10 a pound currently, S&P said.

Given the extent to which China has bolstered commodity prices, thats something that we have to be concerned about, S&P analyst Scott Sprinzen said by telephone from New York. The efforts by the government in China to slow growth are having an effect on commodity prices. Its been a pretty modest correction so far. The Standard & Poors GSCI index of 24 commodities dropped 6.8 per cent last month, the first decline since August, as accelerating inflation in China fanned speculation growth will slow. Chinas central bank has raised benchmark interest rates four times and boosted lenders reserverequirement ratios by three percentage points since September.

The central bank may raise rates ahead of a public holiday on June 6 because consumer prices are expected to rise to a new high in May, the Shanghai Daily said May 31, citing UBS AG. Inflation rose 5.3 per cent last month, exceeding the governments full-year target of 4 per cent.


Chinas gross domestic product may grow 9.5 per cent this year, down from 10.3 per cent in 2010, according to a median of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Under S&Ps base- case scenario, Chinas economic growth will moderate, while private consumption will remain strong, according to the report.
The current situation isnt abubble and its not going to burst, but there is a risk, Sprinzen said.

In case of a sudden slowdown in the worlds biggest consumer of commodities, iron ores floor is $85 to $95 a metric ton compared with about $170 now, seaborne coking coal at the mine has a floor of $100 to $120 a ton, compared with about $180 now, and hot rolled coil steels floor is $475 to $525 aton compared with about $750 now, according to the report.

In considering the downside for metals, we generally assume that the global industry production cost curve would set a pricing floor, Sprinzen wrote. Specifically, we assume that prices are unlikely to fall for an extended period below the level at which 10-20 per cent of world capacity cannot generate positive operating cash flow before investment. Commodities may easily drop 25 to 40 per cent in the next 12 months, presenting an enormous opportunity for investors, David Stroud, chief executive officer of TS Capital, a hedge fund manager in New York, said in an e-mail.

My Comments:
As per the report by S&P the commodities will go down as much as 75%.China is trying to put brakes on their overheating economy and thus the demand for the commodities will go down and if even 30-40% prices can go down that will do load of good for the user Ind.
Actually the commodities prices goes up much early then the actual demand comes out.It is the speculators who forecast the demand and takes a postion on commodities and hence the prices goes up.That is an unfortunate part of F&O .Players speculate on coming demand and buy futures of the perticular commodities.So actually the price get rised before even the demand rises.
But if China is putting brakes on economy by rasing the Int rate and lendersreserve requirement ratio  by 3% then that will be good for many Indian Cos who are taking a beating due to commodities prices going up.


  1. Hi Rajeev,
    The previous one article was really excellent.
    Nice insight.
    Need your opinion.
    I remember you saying a big multi-bagger for Money Matters Financial Matters around 1 yr back @ 115.
    I bought it but made the mistake of selling it @ 125.
    After that stock had an excellent run-up till 700. But after the LIC and rest of the scams it had MANY LCs. Now its trading around 54.
    Do you see any future positive multi-bagger in it?
    With Regards,

  2. Vikas,
    I will not buy Money Matters now.Even if you feel like buying and take a chance, buy 500 shares and forget....

  3. Thanks Rajeev for your valuable opinion.

  4. what is your call on spice jet now?

    is it worth investment for 4-5 yaers.

    love to hear ur opinion.


  5. pruthvi,
    Spicejet is a good Co with domestic as well not Int flights they are planning to add.But I am not sure how the issue of Maran will get resloved and how much fast......and what market will decide on it....tuff to take a call now..

  6. source and bsir what is your view on following two companies that come on my radar recently
    1. ncl industries, cement manufacture from andhra, mcap of 120 cr,cement ind is going in demand disruption and especially in the south india supply is overwhelming but company has some 20 million ton of capacity and last quarter it earn 20 cr and some of the big reliable rokare say that it will come out with some 80 cr profit this year.cement companies with 2 times pe

    2. kilburn engg it seem like that most of problomes it has in past getting resolved your comment sir

  7. what is the future of Allied Digital Services Ltd? Can this become a multibagger?

  8. sami,
    Allied Digital Looks good to me with buyback at 140! and price is 46......they are cash Cloud Computing as well, an upcoming sector...