Peter Lynch ran Fidelity's Magellan Fund for thirteen years (1977-1990). In that period, Magellan was up over 2700%. He retired in 1990 at the age of 46.
Q.How did you first get interested in the stock market.
A.Well, I grew up in the 1950s. I started caddying when I was 11. So the would have been 1955 and in that part -- the '50s were a great decade for the stock market. I caddied a very nice club out in west Newton, had a lot of people, corporate executives, and some of these were buying stocks and I remember them talking about stocks and they mentioned the names and I'd look in the paper and look at it a month later, a year later, and I noticed they were goin' up. And I said, "Gee, this makes a lot of sense." And so I watched it. I didn't have any money to invest, but I remember the stock market being very strong in the 1950s and some people, not everybody, but a lot of people on the golf course talking about it.
Q.What was your first stock?
A.Well, when I got a caddie scholarship to college. It was actually a partial scholarship, a Frances Wimen Scholarship, a financial aid scholarship, but it was thousand dollars to go to Boston College and they gave me a $300 scholarship and I got to earn over $700 a year caddying. So I was able to build up a little bit of money and I worked also during the winters. So while I was in college I did a little study on the freight industry, the air freight industry. And I looked at this company called Flying Tiger. And I actually put a thousand dollars in it and I remember I thought this air cargo was going to be a thing of the future. And I bought it and it got really lucky because it went up for another reason. The Vietnam War started and they basically hauled a lot of troops to Vietnam in airplanes and the stock went up, I think, nine- or ten-fold and I had my first ten bagger. I started selling it, I think, at 20 and 30 and 40, sold all the way up to 80 and helped pay for graduate school. So I almost had a Flying Tiger graduate school fellowship.
Q.You originated the expression "four bagger", "five bagger" et cetera. What's that mean exactly?
A.I've always been a great lover of baseball. I mean if you grew up in Boston, you know that the last time we won the World Series, Babe Ruth pitched for us. It was 1918. So it's been a long drought here. So I've always loved baseball and the ten bagger is two home-runs and a double. It's you run around a lot, so it's very exciting. You made ten times your money. Is a ten bagger.
Q.That's pretty good.
A.Excellent. You don't need a lot in your lifetime. You only need a few good stocks in your lifetime. I mean how many times do you need a stock to go up ten-fold to make a lot of money? Not a lot.
Q.Was that your secret?
A.Well, I think the secret is if you have a lot of stocks, some will do mediocre, some will do okay, and if one of two of 'em go up big time, you produce a fabulous result. And I think that's the promise to some people. Some stocks go up 20-30 percent and they get rid of it and they hold onto the dogs. And it's sort of like watering the weeds and cutting out the flowers. You want to let the winners run. When the fun ones get better, add to 'em, and that one winner, you basically see a few stocks in your lifetime, that's all you need. I mean stocks are out there. When I ran Magellan, I wrote a book. I think I listed over a hundred stocks that went up over ten-fold when I ran Magellan and I owned thousands of stocks. I owned none of these stocks. I missed every one of these stocks that went up over ten-fold. I didn't own a share of them. And I still managed to do well with Magellan. So there's lots of stocks out there and all you need is a few of 'em. So that's been my philosophy. You have to let the big ones make up for your mistakes.
In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten. This is not like pure science where you go, "Aha" and you've got the answer. By the time you've got "Aha," Chrysler's already quadrupled or Boeing's quadrupled. You have to take a little bit of risk.
Q.When you first went to Fidelity, what was the market like?
A.Well, after the great rush of the '50s, the market did brilliantly and everybody says, "Wow, looking backwards, this would be a great time to get in." So a lot of people got in in the early '60s and in the mid-60s. The market peaked in '65-66 around a thousand, and that's when I came. I was a summer student at Fidelity in 1966. There were 75 applicants for three jobs at Fidelity, but I caddied for the president for eight years. So that was the only job interview I ever took. It was sort of a rigged deal, I think. I worked there the summer of '66 and I remember the market was close to a thousand in 1966, and in 1982, 16 years later, it was 777. So we had a long drought after that. So the people were concerned about the stock market early in the '50s. They kept watching and watching, not investing. It started to go up dramatically and they finally caved in and bought big time in the mid-60s and got the peak.
Q.So people got in at the wrong time, in effect?
A. A lot of people got in at the wrong time. A lot of people did very well and some people said, "This is it. I'll never get back in again." And they maybe meant it, but they probably got back in again anyway.
Q.How much did you make on your first job at Fidelity?
A.I was paid, $16,000 a year. I was an analyst. I was the textile analyst, the metals analysts, and I remember the second year I got a raise to $17,000. That was great, you know.
Q.Did you get other job offers?
A.I was in ROTC studies, I spent two years in the Army and I did two years of graduate school and in, a business at Wharton School of Finance, University of Pennsylvania. So I was about 25 when I joined Fidelity.
Q.How old were you when you took over Magellan?
A.That was 1977, so I guess I was 33.
Q.What kind of fund was Magellan?
A.It was a small aggressive capital appreciation fund. Magellan Fund basically started in the early '60s. In the name, it was an international fund, but right after it started in 1963, they put sort of a barrier and a heavy tax on foreign investing. So it did very little foreign investing. It had the ability to do it, but there was very little interest then. There was a big penalty. So even though it was Magellan Fund, it was primarily a domestic fund. And when I took over in May of 1977, the fund was $20 million.
Q.And that was your first portfolio managing job?
A.That's correct. I was director research in 1974. I still continued to be an analyst, and then May of 1977 I took over Magellan Fund.
Q.But the market really didn't do much between '77 and '82, between the beginning of that bull market, and yet your fund performed quite spectacularly. What do you do?
A.Well, I think flexibility is one of the key things. I mean I would buy companies that had unions. I would buy companies that were in the steel industry. I'd buy textile companies. I always thought there was good opportunities everywhere and, researched my stocks myself. I mean Taco Bell was one of my first stock I bought. I mean the people wouldn't look at a small restaurant company. So I think it was just looking at different companies and I always thought if you looked at ten companies, you'd find one that's interesting, if you'd look at 20, you'd find two, or if you look at hundred you'll find ten. The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game. And that's always been my philosophy.
Q.How did Magellan begin to make a name for itself in '82?
A.Well, the first three years I ran Magellan, I think one-third of the shares were redeemed. I mean there was very little interest. People didn't care. The market was doing okay and Magellan was doing well, but people were sort of recovering from their losses, so they from the '50s and '60s, and so literally one-third of the shares were redeemed the first three years I ran it. And in 1982, the market started to pick up. It bought 'em in August of '82, and from then on a lot of interest came back in the market in '83 and '84. Magellan had the best five-year record in 1982 and the best five-year record in 1983 and people tend to look, the press and the media and the newspapers, tend to look at who's had a good record and Magellan was there.
Q.Tell about the first time you were on Ruckeyser.
A.Well, 1982, I think it was the market had just gone over a thousand maybe a week or two before that. So this would have been, I think, October of '82 and Chrysler was my biggest position and the stock, I think, was 10 and I recommended Chrysler and I remember I had, ah -- I had people who said, "Gee, we thought you were interesting." These were relatives of mine. "But how could you ever recommend Chrysler? Don't you know they're going bankrupt?" I remember friends of mine and relatives saying, "That sound crazy to me." So it worked out fine.
And amazing. I think I was on "Wall Street with Louis Ruckheyser" in 1990 and Chrysler was 10 again. It had a stock split that had gone all the way down to 10 and I recommended it again in October of 1990 on "Wall Street with Louis Ruckeyser".
Q.Chart the growth of the fund in the '80s, just for chronology.
A.Well, the fund was not very big in 1982, even though I had ran it for five years. And in '80-- end of '82 when the market really started to come in and people started to look to the future, I think it was April of '83 it passed one billion. That was a big number. I remember that number has a lot of zeros and it's kind of a magic number. So I remember that point and people just continued to be interested in the market and these were lots of individuals coming. This was not people putting in four million at the time or three million. It was lots of two-, and three- and five-thousand-investments coming in. And it was steady. It wasn't a torrent. It just was there every day.
Q.Was it becoming more famous? Wasn't it on "Jeopardy", for instance?
A.Yeah. At some point in time I remember -- I didn't watch the show. I always liked "Jeopardy", but I remember my wife watched the show and somebody was saying "What's the fund that was named after an explorer." And all the people, they all hit the button at the same time on "Jeopardy" and they knew it was Magellan. So, I guess it became more famous then, but there wasn't that much coverage. I mean today I think The Wall Street Journal has three full-time reporters covering the mutual fund industry. They had none in the early '80s. So the coverage was really basically Wall Street, Louis Ruckheyser, Barron's, a little bit in The New York Times every quarter. There was not coverage of the mutual fund industry. It was really coverage of stocks. And, you know, occasionally, ah, Forbes or Fortune or a periodical would write an article, but there wasn't very much interest even in the '80s.
Q.What caused that to change?
A.Well, I think the great decade of the '80s and people thinking that, you know, "There's a lot of publicity on the Social Security System not gonna make it," and a lot of pension plans. I mean people used to retire and they'd say, "Right now I'm going to get half my last year's salary for the rest of my life, or 60 percent. I don't have to worry about it." Now a lot of people are given their entire pension plan, the most important financial asset they ever got, and they said, "Okay, sweetheart, it's yours. Take care of it." Or there's no pension plan. So today people have to think about their future. They're worried about Social Security and they may have to do their own pension or they already have been given their pension and say, "You manage it." So I think there's -- you have to become finally literate today.
Q.Was your success part of reason why the press, et cetera, began to look at mutual funds more carefully?
A.Well, I think the fact the fund went up, I mean that was the key. If I'd had gone down, I'd have had to dye my hair and grow a beard and move to Fiji. It was just the fact it went up, people made a lot of money and there was a lot of word-of-mouth. I mean it was people saying that "Investing is good," and "We should put some of our money aside and put so much in quarterly." And I think the IRA was invented and there was a lot of things that were to encourage people to save.
Q.If had put a thousand dollars in Magellan on the day you took it over, how much would I have reaped on the day you retired?
A.Well, if somebody invested a thousand dollars in Magellan on May 31st, 1977, the day I left, the thousand would have been $28,000, --May 31st 13 years later, 1990.
Q.Talk about the change in '86-87.
A.Well, I remember in my career you'd say to somebody you worked in the investment business. They'd say, "That's interesting. Do you sail? What do you think of the Celtics?" I mean it would just go right to the next subject. If you told them you were a prison guard, they would have been interested. They would have had some interest in that subject, but if you said you were in the investment business, they said, "Oh, terrific. Do your children go to school?" It just went right to the next subject. You could have been a leper, you know, and been much more interesting. So that was sort of the attitude in the '60s and '70s.
As the market started to heat up, you'd say you were an investor, "Oh, that's interesting. Are there any stocks you're buying?" And then people would listen not avidly. They'd think about it. But then as the '80s piled on, they started writing things down. So I remember people would really take an interest if you were in the investment business, saying "What do you like?" And then it turned and I remember the final page of the chapter would be you'd be at a party and everybody would be talking about stocks. And then people would recommend stocks to me. And then I remember not only that, but the stocks would go up. I'd look in the paper and I'd notice they'd go up in the next three months. And then you've done the full cycle of the speculative cycle that people hate stocks, they despised, they don't want to hear anything about 'em, now they're buying everything and cab drivers are recommending stocks. So that was sort of the cycle I remember going through from the '60s and early '70s all the way to '87.
Q.Where were you when the Crash of '87 came?
A.Well, I was very well prepared for the Crash of 1987. -- my wife and I took our first vacation in eight years and we left on Thursday in October and I think that day the market went down 55 points and we went to Ireland, the first trip we'd ever been there. And then on Friday, because of the time difference, we'd almost completed the day and I called and the market was down 115. I said to Carolyn, "If the market goes down on Monday, we'd better go home." And "We're already here for the weekend. So we'll spend the weekend." So it went down 508 on Monday, so I went home. So in two business days I had lost a third of my fund. So I figured at that rate, the week would have been a rough week. So I went home. Like I could do something about it. I mean it's like, you know, if there was something I could do. I mean there I was -- but I think if people called up and they said, "What's Lynch doing," and they said, "Well, he's on the eighth hole and he's every par so far, but he's in a trap, this could be a triple bogey," I mean I think that's not what they wanted to hear. I think they wanted to hear I'd be there lookin' over -- I mean there's not a lot you can do when the market's in a cascade but I got home quick as I could.
Q.Why did the Crash of '87 happen?
A.Well, I think people had not analyzed '87 very well. I think you really have to put it in perspective. 1982, the market's 777. It's all the way to '86. You have the move to 1700. In four years -- the market moves from 777 to 1700 in four years. Then in none months it puts on a thousand points. So it puts on a thousand points in four years, then puts on another thousand points in the next nine months. So in August of 1987 it's 2700. It's gone up a thousand points in nine months. Then it falls a thousand points in two months, 500 points the last day. So if the market got sideways at 1700, no one would have worried, but it went up a thousand in nine-ten months and then a thousand in two months, and half of it in one day, you would have said.... "The world's over." It was the same price. So it was really a question of the market just kept going up and up and it just went to such an incredible high price by historic, price earnings multiple load, dividend yields, all the other statistics, but people forget that basically it was unchanged in 12 months. If you looked at September, 1986 to October '87, the market was unchanged. It had a thousand point up and a thousand points down and they only remember the down. They thought, "Oh, my goodness, this is the crash. It's all over. It's going to go to 200 and I'm going to selling apples and pencils," you know. But it wasn't. It was a very unique phenomenon because companies were doing fine. Just, you know, you'd call up a company and say, "We can't figure it out. We're doin' well. Our orders are good. Our balance sheet's good." "We just announced we're gonna buy some of our stock. We can't figure out why it's good down so much."
Q.Was that the most scared you ever were in your career?
A.'87 wasn't that scary because I concentrate on fundamentals( Not technicals, my view)). I call up companies. I look at their balance sheet. I look at their business. I look at the environment. The decline was kinda scary and you'd tell yourself, "Will this infect the basic consumer? Will this drop make people stop buying cars, stop buying houses, stop buying appliances, stop going to restaurants?" And you worried about that.
The reality, the '87 decline was nothing like 1990. Ninety, in my 30 years of watching stock very carefully, was by far the scariest period.
Q.What was so scary about 1990?
A.Well, 1990 was a situation where I think it's almost exactly six years ago approximately now. In the summer of 1990, the market's around 3000. Economy's doing okay. And Saddam Hussein decides to walk in and invade Kuwait. So we have invasion of Kuwait and President Bush sends 500,000 troops to Saudi to protect Saudi Arabia. There's a very big concern about, you know, "Are we going to have another Vietnam War?" A lot of serious military people said, "This is going to be a terrible war." Iraq has the fourth largest army in the world. They really fought very well against Iran. These people are tough. This is going to be a long, awful thing. So people were very concerned about that, but, in addition, we had a very major banking crisis. All the major New York City banks, Bank America, the real cornerstone of this country were really in trouble(Like now?). And this is a lot different than if W.T. Grant went under or Penn Central went under. Banking is really tight. And you had to hope that the banking system would hold together and that the Federal Reserve understood that Citicorp, Chase, Chemical, Manufacturers Hanover, Bank of America were very important to this country and that they would survive. And then we had a recession. Unlike '87 you called companies, in 1990 you called companies and say, "Gee, our business is startin' to slip. Inventories are startin' to pile up. We're not doing that well." So you really at that point in time had to belief the whole thing would hold together, that we wouldn't have a major war. You really had to have faith in the future of this country in 1990. In '87, the fundamentals were terrific and it was -- it was like one of those three for two sales at the K-Mart. Things were marked down. It was the same story.
Q.Is there so much pressure because you're handling so much money for other people?
A.It wasn't the pressure. I loved the job. I mean I worked for the best company in the world. I get paid extremely well. We had free coffee. I mean it's a great place to work. I could see any company I wanted to see. I didn't have to, say, get permission to go visit companies I California or Indiana. I just -- lot of freedom, a lot of responsibility. The pressure wasn't it. It was just too much time. I was working six days a week and that wasn't even enough.
Q.Were you surprised by the outpouring in the wake of your retirement?
A.I was really shocked at people's response and all the networks and news overseas and all around the world that it was such a big deal. I mean I was amazed by it. I could write five letters a day for the next seven years to get back to the people that wrote thanking me or wishing me the best and literally maybe my secretary screened me from the nasty ones, but I don't remember anybody saying, "You god. I just got in yesterday and you left." I mean there were all these very nice notes saying, "You're doing the right thing. I'm very happy about it," and ...
Q.Tell the story about your wife stumbling on a big stock for you in the supermarket.
A.I had a great luck company called Hanes(Peter Lynch believes in LUCK!). They test marketed a product called L'Eggs in Boston and I think in Columbus, Ohio, maybe three or four markets. And Carolyn, ah, brought this product home and she was buying and she said, "It's great." And she almost got a black belt in shopping. She's a very good shopper. If we hadn't had these three kids, she now -- when Beth finally goes off to college, I think we'll be able to resume her training. But she's a very good shopper and she would buy these things. She said, "They're really great." And I did a little bit of research. I found out the average woman goes to the supermarket or a drugstore once a week. And they go a woman's specialty store or department store once every six weeks. And all the good hosiery, all the good pantyhose is being sold in department stores. They were selling junk in the supermarkets. They were selling junk in the drugstores. So this company came up with a product. They rack-jobbed it, they had all the sizes, all the fits, a down they never advertised price. They just advertised "This fits. You'll enjoy it." And it was a huge success and it became my biggest position and I always worried somebody'd come out with a competitive product, and about a year-and-a-half they were on the market another large company called Kaiser-Roth came out with a product called No Nonsense. They put it right next to L'eggs in the supermarket, right next to L'eggs in the drugstore. I said, "Wow, I gotta figure this one out." So I remember buying -- I bought 48 different pairs at the supermarket, colors, shapes, and sizes. They must have wondered what kind of house I had at home when I got to the register. They just let me buy it. So I brought it into the office. I gave it to everybody. I said, "Try this out and come back and see what's the story with No Nonsense." And people came back to me in a couple weeks and said, "It's not as good." That's what fundamental research is. So I held onto Hanes and it was a huge stock and it was bought out by Consolidated Foods, which is now called Sara Lee, and it's been a great division of that company. It might have been a thirty bagger instead of a ten bagger, if it hadn't been bought out.
Q.The beginning of the bull market in 1982 and the environment. Were you surprised?
A.1982 was a very scary period for this country. We've had nine recessions since World War II. This was the worst. 14 percent inflation. We had a 20 percent prime rate, 15 percent long governments. It was ugly( Are the things uglier now in USA, then what Peter Lynch is saying?). And the economy was really much in a free-fall and people were really worried, "Is this it? Has the American economy had it? Are we going to be able to control inflation?" I mean there was a lot of very uncertain times. You had to say to yourself, "I believe it in. I believe in stocks. I believe in companies. I believe they can control this. And this is an anomaly. Double-digit inflation is rare thing. Doesn't happen very often. And, in fact, one of my shareholders wrote me and said, "Do you realize that over half the companies in your portfolio are losing money right now?" I looked up, he was right, or she was right. But I was ready. I mean I said, "These companies are going to do well once the economy comes back. We've got out of every other recession. I don't see why we won't come out of this one." And it came out and once we came back, the market went north.
Q.Nobody told you it was coming.
A.It's lovely to know when there's recession. I don't remember anybody predicting 1982 we're going to have 14 percent inflation, 12 percent unemployment, a 20 percent prime rate, you know, the worst recession since the Depression. I don't remember any of that being predicted. It just happened. It was there. It was ugly. And I don't remember anybody telling me about it. So I don't worry about any of that stuff. I've always said if you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 10 minutes.
Q.So what should people think about?
A.Well, they should think about what's happening. I'm talking about economics as forecasting the future. If you own auto stocks you ought to be very interested in used car prices. If you own aluminum companies you ought to be interested in what's happened to inventories of aluminum. If your stock are hotels, you ought to be interested in how many people are building hotels. These are facts. People talk about what's going to happen in the future, that the average recession last .2 years or who knows? There's no reason why we can't have an average economic expansion that lasts longer. I mean I deal in facts, not forecasting the future. That's crystal ball stuff. That doesn't work. Futile.
Q.Talk about going from one to five to ten billion and whether people thought it was getting too big.
A.Sure. I certainly remember when Magellan passed the billion. I remember it was sometime in 1983 and then remember I think in '84, I don't remember exactly when it became the largest fund in the country, and people said, "Magellan's too big at a billion to get in, to get out. It's hopeless. Leave." And then when it became a largest fund, "It's obviously too big now." And then it got to five billion, they said, "Forget it." When it got to ten billion, they said, "Forget it." And I'd always say, "If I could beat the market by three or four percent a year I'm really doing a service to the public." And then after I left, they said, "The fund's too big. Forget it." And, ah, Magellan's done extremely well in the six years since I left it. It's beaten the market. It's beaten 80 percent of all funds. So I mean I hope they keep warning people to stay away from it. It's been a terrific thing for it.
Q.Can the little guy play with the big guy in the stock market?
A.There's always been this position that the small investor has no chance against the big institutions. And I always wonder whether that's the person under four-foot-eight. I mean they always said the small investor doesn't have a chance. And there's two issues there. First of all, I think that he or she can do it, but, number two, the question is, people do it anyway. They invest anyway. And if they so believe this theory that the small investor has no chance, they invest in a different format. They said, "This is a casino. I'll buy stock this month. I'll sell it a month later," same kind of performance that they do everywhere. When they look at a house, they're very careful. They look at the school system. They look at the street. They look at the plumbing. When they buy a refrigerator, they do homework. If they're so convinced that the small investor has no chance, the stock market's a big game and they act accordingly, they hear a stock and they buy it before sunset, they're going to get the kind of results that prove the small investor can do poorly. Now if you buy a -- you make a mistake on a car, you make a mistake on a house, you don't blame the professional investors. But now if you do stupid research, you buy some company that has no sales, no earnings, a terrible financial position and it goes down, you say, "Well, it because of the programmed trading of those professionals," that's because you didn't do your homework. So I -- I've tried to convince people they can do a job, they can do very well, but they have to do certain things.
Q.Wouldn't one of those things be letting you do it for them?
A.Well, the small investor can do three things. They can avoid the market entirely. They can just say, ah, "I can't stand it. It's too volatile for me. I'll just put my money in money market funds or put my money in the bank." That's one choice. The other choice is they can invest directly in the stock market by buying stocks individually, or they can buy mutual funds and invest in stock. I think they can do the course of investing in mutual funds and every now and then, they find some stocks, they have a chance the make a big hit. I think the average person could know three or four or five companies very well. They could lecture on those three or four or five companies, and if one or two of 'em becomes attractive, they buy 'em. They just can't wake up in the morning and say, "Now's the time to buy this. Now's the time to buy IBM. Now's the time to by GE. Now's the time to buy Dow Chemical. Now's the time to buy some biotechnology company," if they don't know something about it. You have to know the story. And people have lots of edges and they throw them away.
Q.Talk about market timing.
A.The market itself is very volatile. We've had 95 years completed this century. We're in the middle of 1996 and we're close to a 10 percent decline. In the 95 years so far, we've had 53 declines in the market of 10 percent or more. Not 53 down years. The market might have been up 26 finished the year up four, and had a 10 percent correction. So we've had 53 declines in 95 years. That's once every two years. Of the 53, 15 of the 53 have been 25 percent or more. That's a bear market. So 15 in 95 years, about once every six years you're going to have a big decline. Now no one seems to know when there are gonna happen. At least if they know about 'em, they're not telling anybody about 'em. I don't remember anybody predicting the market right more than once, and they predict a lot. So they're gonna happen. If you're in the market, you have to know there's going to be declines. And they're going to cap and every couple of years you're going to get a 10 percent correction. That's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly. That's what a "correction" is called. And a bear market is 20-25-30 percent decline. They're gonna happen. When they're gonna start, no one knows. If you're not ready for that, you shouldn't be in the stock market. I mean stomach is the key organ here. It's not the brain. Do you have the stomach for these kind of declines? And what's your timing like? Is your horizon one year? Is your horizon ten years or 20 years? If you've been lucky enough to save up lots of money and you're about to send one kid to college and your child's starting a year from now, you decide to invest in stocks directly or with a mutual fund with a one-year horizon or a two-year horizon, that's silly. That's just like betting on red or black at the casino. What the market's going to do in one or two years, you don't know. Time is on your side in the stock market. It's on your side. And when stocks go down, if you've got the money, you don't worry about it and you're putting more in, you shouldn't worry about it. You should worry what are stocks going to be 10 years from now, 20 years from now, 30 years from now. I'm very confident.
Q.If you had invested in '66, it would have taken 15 years to make the money back.
A.Well, from '66 to 1982, the market basically was flat. But you still had dividends in stocks. You still had a positive return. You made a few percent a year. That was the worst period other than the 1920s, in this century. So companies still pay dividends, even though if their stock goes sideways for ten years, they continue to pay you dividends, they continue to raise their dividends. So you have to say the yourself, "What are corporate profits going to do?" Historically, corporate profits have grown about eight percent a year. Eight percent a year. They double every nine years. They quadruple every 18. They go up six-fold every 25 years. So guess what? In the last 25 years corporate profits have gone up a little over six-fold, the stock market's gone up a little bit over six-fold, and you've had a two or three percent dividend yield, you've made about 11 percent a year. There's an incredible correlation over time.
So you have to say to yourself, "What's gonna happen in the next 10-20-30 years? Do I think the General Electrics, the Sears, the Wal-Marts, the MicroSofts, the Mercks, the Johnson & Johnsons, the Gillettes, Anheiser-Busch, are they going to be making more money 10 years from now, 20 years from now? I think they will." Will new companies come along like Federal Express that came along in the last 20 years? Will new companies come along like Amgen that make money? Will new companies come along like Compaq Computer? I think they will. There'll be new companies coming along that make money. That's what you're investing in.
Q.You believe that the majority of small investors had lost money and that's why they're in mutual funds?
A.I wrote three books and I had great help with doing it with John Rothschild, is I really want to help the average person. My wife and I have given all the profits from those books to charity. I want to help people do a better job investing, understand the market because what amazes me is we've had this phenomenal market. You start 1982, August of '82, the market's 777. In May of 1996, it's at 5700. I'm that's up almost seven-fold. That's an incredible advance. Now how come there's not a lot more people buyin' stocks? How come the number of registered shareholders hasn't gone up dramatically? When antiques were hot, lots of who were doin' antiques. When rugs were hot, they were doin' rugs. When baseball cards were in, thousands of people were into baseball cards, tens of thousands. And people were fixin' up old cars. The only thing I can conclude from the fact there hasn't been a great jump in the amount of people directly investing in the stock market has been in this best bull market of all time, August of '82 to 19-- May of '96, best stock market ever, people must have done a mediocre job or they would be doing more of it themselves and they'd be telling their friends about it and their friends'd be doing it. So their method must be flawed.
Q.What does that say to you about their frame of mind?
A.Well, for some reason, the public looks at stocks differently than they look at everything else. When they buy a refrigerator, they do research. When they buy a microwave oven, they do research. They'll get Consumer Reports. They'll ask a customer "What's your favorite kind of oven? What kind of car would you buy?" Then they'll -- they'll put $10,000 in some zany stock that they don't even know what it does that they heard on a bus on the way to work and wonder why they lose money, and they do it before sunset. Well, you've got plenty of time. You could have bought Wal-Mart ten years after it went public -- Wal-Mart went public in 1970. You could have bought it ten years later and made 30 times your money. You could have said, "I'm very cautious. I'm very careful. I'm gonna wait. I want to make sure this company -- they're just in Arkansas and I want to watch 'em go to other states." So you watch, five years later the stock's up about four-fold. You say, "I'm still not sure of this company. They have a great balance sheet, great record." I'm going to wait another -- wait another five years, it goes up another four-fold. It's now up twenty-fold. You still haven't invested. You say, "Now I think it's time to invest in Wal-Mart." You still could have made 30 times your money because ten years after Wal-Mart went public they were only in 15 percent of the United States. They hadn't saturated that 15 percent and they were very low cost. They were in small towns. You could say to yourself, "Why can't they go to 17? Why can't they go to 19? Why can't they go to 21? I'll get on the computer.
Why can't they go to 28?" And that's all they did. They just replicated their formula. That doesn't take a lot of courage. That's homework.
Q.The high and the low analysis.
A.People spend all this time trying to figure out "What time of the year should I make an investment? When should I invest?" And it's such a waste of time. It's so futile. I did a great study, it's an amazing exercise. In the 30 years, 1965 to 1995, if you had invested a thousand dollars, you had incredible good luck, you invested a the low of the year, you picked the low day of the year, you put your thousand dollars in, your return would have been 11.7 compounded. Now some poor unlucky soul, the Jackie Gleason of the world, put in the high of the year. He or she picked the high of the year, put their thousand dollars in at the peak every single time, miserable record, 30 years in a row, picked the high of the year. Their return was 10.6 That's the only difference between the high of the year and the low of the year. Some other person put in the first day of the year, their return was 11.0. I mean the odds of that are very little, but people spend an unbelievable amount of mental energy trying to pick what the market's going to do, what time of the year to buy it. It's just not worth it.
Q.So they just buy and hold?
A.They should buy, hold, and when the market goes down, add to it. Every time the market goes down 10 percent, you add to it, you'd be much -- you would have better return than the average of 11 percent, if you believe in it, if it's money you're not worried about. As the market starts going down, you say, "Oh, it'll be fine. It'll be predictable." When it starts going down and people get laid off, a friend of yours, loses their job or a company has 10,000 employees and they lay off two. The other 998,000 people start to worry or somebody says their house price just went down, these are little thoughts that start to creep to the front of your brain. And they're the back of your brain. And human nature hasn't changed much in 5,000 years. There's this thing of greed versus fear. The market's going up, you're not worried. All of a sudden it starts going down and you start saying, "I remember my uncle told me, you know, somebody lost it all in the Depression. People were jumping out of windows. They were selling pencils and apples." It must have been a great decade to buy a pencil or an apple, but they were always -- there must have been everybody selling pencils. That start to -- we laugh about it. People start to think about these things with the market going down. These ugly thoughts start coming into the picture. Gotta get 'em out. You have to wipe those out and you -- you either believe in it or you don't.
Q.The fact of the matter is, in the America that we live in, there are a lot of people who feel they have no choice, that they have to be in the market. What do those people do?
A.Well, if people don't have the stomach, they really don't have it, the volatility's too much for them with the stock market, they can avoid it. They could buy money market funds and they'd get a little bit better than inflation. They will not get, in my opinion, the same return the next 20 years, the next 30 years they would get by buying stocks. That doesn't sound like much, but over the long period of time Treasury Bills and money markets have yielded a little bit higher than inflation, bonds have yielded five or six percent, and stocks have yielded a total of 11. The differences are massive over 30 years, but that's not a bad return to get a positive return. If you're worried, it's better than losing money.
Q.How do those people educate their kids and retire?
A.They have to save more. The public's not saving enough. Our whole system's all backwards. If you borrow money to spend, add addition to your house, it's tax deductible, you save money, they tax you on it. I mean the public has figured out very well there's no inducement to save. Our system is very confusing. We have the highest capital gains rate in the history of this country right now. The capital gains rates in Japan is zero. They have a 20 percent savings rate in Japan. We have to have a higher savings rate. No one's encouraging savings. And it's the one thing I remember from college is savings equals investment. For every savings of a dollar, money goes into capital investment, that yields more productivity, yields more jobs, yields better standard of living. We are not saving enough money. That's the most single important thing people have to do, they have to save some more.
Q.With so many people investing in mutual funds, let's consider two issues. Short-term profit....long-term stability?
A.Well, if corporate management's job is to make the company deal well and make a good job for employees, provide a good service, they know if they do something very slick, very fast and it works well for three months, their competitors will knock 'em off. They have to come out with a better product. They have to come out with better services. So I think the real issue is they have to think long-term and they're doing that. They have to say, "We have to stay competitive and we have to think about ways -- we just introduced a me-too product. That's not enough. It has to be a better product." And I think that's been the difference. "Can we lower our costs?" You see that with the telephone companies. You see it with electric utilities. You see it with broadcasting. You see it with gas companies, industries that never even thought of this -- publishing, just throughout all of the America in the retailing industry, better ways of delivering products. And it's a serious effort and it's a long-term effort. And they're trying to spend more and more time to say, "How can we do a better job? We just can't raise prices. That game's over."
Q.So companies get a bad rap for this short-term, long-term business?
A.Well, there is a group of people that buy companies, sell this division, sell that division, sell that off and divide it up and that's a very small minority. It doesn't happen very often. And they used to be able to use junk bonds. That day's over. They used to get a lot of money from the banking system to do an LBO. That day's over. So now a corporate buyer's a legitimate buyer. It's a major company buys another company. It's not somebody who puts a thousand dollars down and borrow 23 billion and then tries to sell parts off. So I think corporate managements are doing a very good job of saving companies. But a lot of times it's a tough decision. They don't like lettin' people go. No one enjoys that. The question is, if we can slim down and get more efficient, it'd be better off for 90 percent of the employees than "If we don't do it, we could become another Eastern Air Lines, another Pan Am and everybody loses their job."
Q.A lot of people worry that the mutual fund pressure has caused a lot of pain in this country ...
A.Well, I think it was the recession of '81 and '82 that was the wake-up call. It wasn't the stock market. It wasn't mutual funds managers. It's competition. It's competitor in the apparel industry. It's competition in the textile industry. It's competitor in the housing industry. It's competitor in the broadcast industry independent of mutual fund managers. Now you look at AT&T, about 11 years ago they broke up AT&T, had one million employees. One out of every hundred Americans was working for the telephone company. If you put together AT&T and all the Baby Bells today, you'd have about 700-- less than 700,000 workers and they're doing double the amount of telephone calls, twenty times the faxes, a hundred times the data communications, a thousand times the cellular with 30 percent less employees. Now is that good for America or bad for America? Would we be better off if they had two million employees? I think we're just better off that they have less employees and they're doing a better job.
Q.Why?
A.That's -- competition, because we have the lowest cost communication system in the world. It's the single most important thing. It's not the highway system. Communications is the single most important and we're the lowest cost. That helps us compete with the rest of the world.
Now hopefully these companies have done a good job when they had to let people go, they helped 'em find other jobs or they let people retire. I'm hoping they were good corporate citizens. That would be very good. That's important. So they just don't say, "Sorry, fellas. Sorry, lady. You're outta here." That would be not a very good thing to do. That'd be terrible. So that would be an abuse. That's not the way to treat people. But holding onto people and all of a sudden you have to cut everybody's pay by 10 percent and then cut everybody's pay by another 15 percent, then your whole company folds. No one wins by that.
Q.Talk companies that have gone public since the bull market started and the flow of capital ...
A.I get asked a lot by people, you know, "Where's this money that's going into mutual funds of my money? Other people's money. Where is this going to wind up?" One wonderful thing that happened, the last three years over a hundred-billion dollars has gone into initial public offerings. These are new companies coming public. We've had over 2,500 companies come public. That's over two a business day. These companies now have more money for equipment, more money for research. They have a better balance sheet. They can borrow more. They are going to hire more people and more jobs. These are going to be the companies like the next Staples, the next Federal Express, the next Compaq. That's what made America grow.
In the decade of the '80s the 500 largest companies eliminated three million jobs. We added 18 million jobs. This is the greed decade. The decade of the '80s we added 18 million jobs in the United States. There's 2.1 million businesses started. Some didn't make it, but they just had 10 jobs each. That's 21 million jobs. Some medium-sized companies grew to be big companies. That's what's made America grow. When the stock market does well the next two years or the next three years, that money's there. They've got it now. It didn't just go to a bunch of rich people. It went into the companies' treasuries. It's now being used for research & development. Companies like Amgen has come along and they have two one-billion-dollar drugs. Company didn't exist 20 years ago.
Q.So my money winds up in Amgen?
A.The money the public puts into mutual funds, a large percentage of that is wound up going into finance new issues. From '65 to 1995 in America we added 54 million jobs. The European Union, the old Common Market, has 100 million more people. In those 30 years, they added 10 million jobs. They added 10 million jobs in 30 years. We added 54 million jobs. There's 10 percent unemployment in Europe, 20 million people out of work. We are very lucky we've had these companies come public. That's what made this country hold together. Business has done a terrific job. We ought to be very happy. I don't think 2,500 companies have come public in Europe since Charlemagne, and I think he became King of the Francs in 788. This is a wonderful thing we have in this country, this initial public offerings, putting money into small and medium-sized companies and let them grow.
Q.Do you think Vinik got a bad rap, too much emphasis put on short-term record?
A.Jeff Vinik ran Magellan Fund for a little over four years. It beat the market. It beat 80 percent of all other funds. So if you went somewhere else, you would have been in the 80 percent that lost out to Magellan. Now the last nine months Magellan didn't have a great record, but when you have a basketball game and at the end of the game its 105 to 85, they don't say to the team, " the third quarter you lost by 32 to 22. What happened to the third quarter?" I mean I think a four years is a reasonable period of time to look over a record. I think Jeff Vinik did a very good job the time he ran Magellan.
Q.Too much scrutiny is unfair at this point?
A.Well, I can't say whether there's too much scrutiny or not enough scrutiny. I think there's a lot of watching of the largest fund in the country. The question is, can it continue to beat the market like it's done under Morris Smith, under Jeff Vinik, and under Bob Stansky. And it's still a very small percent of the market. I mean 50 billion is a very large number, but when you think the New York Stock Exchange is five-and-a-half trillion. If you look at the hundred largest stocks over-the-counter, there's another trillion. You look at the 200 largest stocks overseas is several trillion, I mean it's not a very small -- it's a very small percentage of the available market. All you have to do really is find the best hundred stocks in the S&P 500 and find another few hundred outside the S&P 500 to beat the market.
Q.That's all?
A.That's all you do.
Q.What was Magellan's size when you left?
A.When I left Magellan Fund, it was 14 billion.
Q.And where is it today?
A.Today over 50 billion.
Q.What has caused that incredible influx of money?
A.Well, part of it, the market was 2700 when I left. You know, and before today the market was 5500. So, the market doubled, plus dividends has brought a lot of it, and people already were there. So they kept adding. So every year people kept adding money and as it's gone up, it was up over 35 percent in 1995, I mean those compound to give you very big numbers. So it's some people adding do it and the fund doing very well. It went up when Morris Smith ran it. So it's gone up a lot in six years.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Infosys suggests better times ahead...........
Infosys suggests better times ahead; Q2 net up 7.5% YoY
BS REPORTERS Bangalore/Mumbai, 9 October
Setting a positive tone for the IT sectors quarterly earnings performance, Infosys Technologies, Indias second-largest IT services provider, marginally beat market expectations to post a 7.5 per cent increase in consolidated (Indian GAAP) net profit to touch Rs 1,540 crore for the second quarter ended September 30, 2009 against the corresponding period of the last financial year. Its top-line grew 3 per cent to touch Rs 5,585 crore.
Compared to the trailing quarter, the companys net profit moved up a shade under 1 per cent and its top-line rose 2 per cent.
The management attributed the growth to a recovery in business margins, favourable currency movements and greater traction in offshore projects. The company recorded a2.3 per cent growth in volumes on the back of a revival in IT spending by clients.
Net profit margins improved 114 basis points yearon-year, but declined 33 basis points sequentially to 27.6 per cent, due to a higher tax outgo for the quarter. Moreover, since more work moved offshore (that is, on Indian shores), the company could record a 3 per cent gain.
Under US-GAAP, however, revenues in the second quarter fell 5.1 per cent to $1.154 billion from $1.216 billion a year earlier, while net profit after tax declined 0.9 per cent to $317 million from $320 million.
Infosys recorded sequential revenue growth in US dollar terms, after witnessing a decline for the last three quarters.
"Clients are looking to invest in a few strategic initiatives and relationships to maximise value from opportunities when the economic downturn ends," Infosys CEO S Gopalakrishnan told reporters here today.
The markets initially reacted positively to his assertion that the business climate has improved. The Infosys stock opened around 1.6 per cent higher than its previous closing figure, but ended the day at Rs 2,178.35 — around 1.5 per cent down on the Bombay Stock Exchange.
Analysts attributed the fall to currency volatility (the strengthening rupee against the US dollar) which could significantly affect Infosys margins in the coming two quarters. Besides, analysts say the Infosys stock is currently valued at 22 times its earnings, which decreases the attraction of holding the stock.
Infosys has indicated that its third quarter (October-December 2009) revenues would see a decline of 1 to 2 per cent on a year-on-year basis, while its year-end revenues would also dip by 1-1.3 per cent.
BS REPORTERS Bangalore/Mumbai, 9 October
Setting a positive tone for the IT sectors quarterly earnings performance, Infosys Technologies, Indias second-largest IT services provider, marginally beat market expectations to post a 7.5 per cent increase in consolidated (Indian GAAP) net profit to touch Rs 1,540 crore for the second quarter ended September 30, 2009 against the corresponding period of the last financial year. Its top-line grew 3 per cent to touch Rs 5,585 crore.
Compared to the trailing quarter, the companys net profit moved up a shade under 1 per cent and its top-line rose 2 per cent.
The management attributed the growth to a recovery in business margins, favourable currency movements and greater traction in offshore projects. The company recorded a2.3 per cent growth in volumes on the back of a revival in IT spending by clients.
Net profit margins improved 114 basis points yearon-year, but declined 33 basis points sequentially to 27.6 per cent, due to a higher tax outgo for the quarter. Moreover, since more work moved offshore (that is, on Indian shores), the company could record a 3 per cent gain.
Under US-GAAP, however, revenues in the second quarter fell 5.1 per cent to $1.154 billion from $1.216 billion a year earlier, while net profit after tax declined 0.9 per cent to $317 million from $320 million.
Infosys recorded sequential revenue growth in US dollar terms, after witnessing a decline for the last three quarters.
"Clients are looking to invest in a few strategic initiatives and relationships to maximise value from opportunities when the economic downturn ends," Infosys CEO S Gopalakrishnan told reporters here today.
The markets initially reacted positively to his assertion that the business climate has improved. The Infosys stock opened around 1.6 per cent higher than its previous closing figure, but ended the day at Rs 2,178.35 — around 1.5 per cent down on the Bombay Stock Exchange.
Analysts attributed the fall to currency volatility (the strengthening rupee against the US dollar) which could significantly affect Infosys margins in the coming two quarters. Besides, analysts say the Infosys stock is currently valued at 22 times its earnings, which decreases the attraction of holding the stock.
Infosys has indicated that its third quarter (October-December 2009) revenues would see a decline of 1 to 2 per cent on a year-on-year basis, while its year-end revenues would also dip by 1-1.3 per cent.
My Comments:
True to my analysis, Infosys has given a better guidence for the coming year and that despite of the fact that Rupee is appreciating against dollar.
This anoucement comes in line of my view that I wrote in recent post that new frontiers are opening up for IT sector and they are European countries and as IT cos will now be dealing more with Euros and Pounds the loss they use to see with dollar depreciating will be minimized.There are many analyst who became negative on IT sector with dollar becoming weaker.
I was perhaps one of them who categorically wrote that IT sector can be a next sector to watch for in next bull run.....
Genesys Int which I recomended in my latest list has already started making new 52 week highs.....
In other sector Sudal Ind is making newer highs and has crossed half century mark....
Thursday, October 8, 2009
3PSUs to invest Rs 1,200 cr to set up solar plants......
BS REPORTER Chennai, 6 October
After deciding to set up ultra mega power projects (UMPPs) to improve power supply across the country, the government’s next big step would be to set up eight ultra supercritical power plants (USCPPs).
3PSUs to invest Rs 1,200 cr to set up solar plants..
At the same time, the government plans to mandate equipment manufacturers to set up shops in the country to cater to these projects.
“Our next step would be setting up USCPPs. The government is planning to set up eight plants across the country with 800 Mw each. We are planning to start the initiative by next year,” S Seshadri, member of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), said on the sidelines of a CII-organised conference on power.
USCPPs operate at temperatures and pressures above the critical point of water, that is above the temperature and pressure at which the liquid and gas phases of water coexist in equilibrium, at which point there is no difference between water gas and liquid water. This results in higher efficiencies —above 45 per cent.
These power plants are fast becoming the system of choice across China, Europe and the US, which operate at higher temperatures and pressures and, therefore, achieve higher efficiencies than conventional boiler units, resulting in less coal use per megawatt-hour.
According to Seshadri, the government is currently helping set up 12 UMPPs across the country. The first one, commissioned by Tata Power, is expected to go onstream by September 2011. “The government is also planning to set up another two UMPPs,” he said.
Currently, specifications are under preparation, one of which would compel equipment suppliers to set up shop in India. According to Seshadri, one of the major factors would be availability of materials and equipment; there are only two or three manufacturers in the world catering to USCPPs. BS REPORTER Chennai, 6 October
Three public sector companies are planning to set up 60-80 megawatt solar plants with an investment of Rs 1,000-1,200 crore. The projects will come up in Rajasthan, Punjab and the Leh region of Jammu and Kashmir.
Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Nigam Ltd (RVPN) would set up a plant at Suratgarh in Rajasthan, while a similar plant would be set up by NTPC at Anta in the state, SSeshadri, member of the Central Electricity Authority, said on the sidelines of a CII-organised conference on power. The state utility of Punjab would set up a solar plant in the state, he added.
However, it was not decided which state-run power company would set up the plant in Leh.
“For the first time, we are planning to tap solar energy in Leh,” said Seshadri.
Capacity of these plants would vary from 15-20 megawatt each, Seshadri said, adding it would cost Rs 16 crore per megawatt.
Each of these utilities would fund the projects individually, added Seshadri.
My Comments:
Seems Solar sector is going to get a shot in the arm from government itself.Solar Panel maker will have a field day.
With Oil prices going up again and India being a tropical country , I think solar panel producers will have not to look at overseas for the orders.
XL Tele and likes can again gain their old glory.One of my good friend recomended me to write on Solar Energy sector as some annoucement is bound to come in next couple of months.More over he is also bullish on realty sector too.As I am far off India,I donno what is the scenario there in India for realty sector but he is bullish and told me to write on that.....and hence I am here to write that keep a watch on Solar Sector and Realty sector.......Boom time ahead for cos having land banks.......
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Old World becoming the New Frontier for Indian IT .........
Old World becoming the New Frontier for Indian IT
PALLAVI AIYAR Brussels, 6 October
Historically Europe may be of the Old World, but when it comes to IT-related offshoring it is the new frontier.
“Ten years ago Europe contributed 15 per cent of our global revenues, five years ago 21 per cent and in the last fiscal, 30 per cent,” says Abhinav Kumar, Tata Consultancy Service’s director for marketing and communications in Europe.
After years of sniffing suspiciously at the Anglo-Saxon model of business and the outsourcing/offshoring road it has increasingly taken, continental Europe finally seems to be experiencing a shift in mindset.
“We see a change from the belief that offshoring is a temporary phase whose advantages are not sustainable to a mindset that sees it as an emerging trend that will continue to expand further,” explains Hemakiran Gupta, country manager for TCS Belgium.
After 16 years of operating in Belgium the Indian IT major today accounts for some 7per cent of the country’s IT pie. It may not sound huge but adisproportionate percentage of TCS’ European revenues come from this small country of 10 million people.
“After Germany and the Netherlands, Belgium ranks third in terms of our continental European operations,” says Gupta.
The company already has 700 consultants working with Belgian clients — 200 located locally. Out of Belgium’s top 20 firms, eight are TCS clients including the telecom heavyweight Belgacom, retail giant Colruyt and the world’s largest maker of beer, InBev.
A recent report by outsourcing advisory firm Quantum Step put the source-able IT sector in Belgium at $6.5 billion for the coming year, claiming that customers in the country will spend $1.8 billion on infrastructure management outsourcing, almost $2.6 billion on application development and maintenance and nearly $2 billion on BPO.
Gupta agrees that this is asignificant opportunity for Indian IT although he stresses that the competition is stiff. He says that of the $6.5 billion, $1 billion has already been sourced. That leaves $5.5 billion, but Indian companies still account for a relatively small portion of the market. TCS’ main competitors include Accenture, Capgemini and IBM.
Given Belgium’s modest size local competition is limited. This is not the case in other European countries like France for example. According to Kumar, 70 per cent of France’s $30-billion IT market remains controlled by local companies.
“Europe,” he explains, “is still very domestically oriented.” One reason is linguistic. Indian companies pride themselves on their English but in France or Spain, English is not enough.
“In Europe the social sector is very sensitive,” adds Gupta. Sensitivity to job losses due to offshoring is much stronger in Europe than the US or UK he explains. “They are used to doing things a certain way here and they need to be convinced that an Indian company can adapt to their way.” Indian companies have found it tough going in part because they are “very revenue-focused and so don’t prioritise getting into the social fabric,” which is necessary according to Gupta.
“We are aware that in Europe we need a different strategy to that in the US. Pure offshoring can never work here. On the other hand, pure localisation which is feasible in Latin America and other emerging markets is not appropriate for Europe either, due to financial reasons. In Europe we need a middle-path between localisation and offshoring,” concludes Kumar.
Gupta and Kumar agree that the economic recession has been a mixed bag for TCS in Europe. The majority of the company’s clients are in the banking and financial sectors.
TCS has consequently suffered from the deferral and cancellation of new projects.
On the other hand, the financial crisis has also forced companies to look at new models of operating and saving costs. “Companies are increasingly convinced of the cost-effectiveness of a projectmode rather than a staff augmentation-mode,” says Gupta.
“In Belgium we are seeing non-top 20 companies also becoming interested in outsourcing for the first time,” reveals Gupta. He says TCS is bullish on the market, with ambitions to transform itself from the leading Indian IT service provider, to the clear number one IT service provider, in Belgium. “It’s very achievable. We only need to triple in size,” he grins confidently.
Out of Belgium’s top 20 firms, eight are TCS clients, including telecom heavyweight Belgacom ( pictured ), retail giant Colruyt and the world’s largest maker of beer, InBev
My Comments:
From the above news one can derive that new frontiers are opening up for IT sector and that is coming from European countries.If one will see the revenues from European countires has been increasing year by year.
Well, that was what I was expecting and that is the reason I have included 4-5 IT stocks in my latest list.
If this is going to be the next growth driver for the IT sector then I think Indian Information sector is now again going to buzz and with no dollar depreciation coming in as they will deal with Euros and Pounds, that will do whole lot of good for the whole sector.
I remember I wrote 3-4 months back that IT sector can be an outperformer in next bull run and seems that my analysis seems on line with what is happening....
BTW, SRF ltd which was recomended here @153 on 24 Aug has crossed a double century and has still a long way to go.
So is Lumax Ind, Apar Ind and many more which I recomended here and A gr at damn cheap price......they are way above my recomended prices.....thrice, four times and more.......double I am not writing.........
I still Like Areva T&D......Siemens,Thermax,Alsthom , L&T is a Stock of the decade, next 10 years)....
One of my reader has written that someone copied my writing of" Deep Ind" and posted , in another forum , as like he has done himself.I also just came through another site of a very wellknown stock picker who has his own webstie and also charge for giving calls.He has also taken text from my post here ,DeepInd,as I can read the same lines in that call as well for Deep Ind.What I don't understand is why someone has to even copy my analysis, means text that I write in "My Comments"
Well, friends , the real trigger here is how you able to analyse the things when you go through reading a newspaper like ET,BS etc and come to the conclusion.That is a very important part of finding the stock early......and maybe some stock market expert are not that much able to look through what is coming , though they charge for their calls,and hence they have to copy "My Comments" as well.......but original will always be original and my readers will be the first to read and act upon.......but now as more and more people has started reading my post and my interpretation of stock market, readers needs to be extra catious while buying stocks as when the circumference of readers increases , one may lose buying stock which I recomend and can run up fast before one can catch.........so I suggest all my readers to act judiciously when I give a call for individual stock or a new list of my pick.......
Best Of Luck............
PALLAVI AIYAR Brussels, 6 October
Historically Europe may be of the Old World, but when it comes to IT-related offshoring it is the new frontier.
“Ten years ago Europe contributed 15 per cent of our global revenues, five years ago 21 per cent and in the last fiscal, 30 per cent,” says Abhinav Kumar, Tata Consultancy Service’s director for marketing and communications in Europe.
After years of sniffing suspiciously at the Anglo-Saxon model of business and the outsourcing/offshoring road it has increasingly taken, continental Europe finally seems to be experiencing a shift in mindset.
“We see a change from the belief that offshoring is a temporary phase whose advantages are not sustainable to a mindset that sees it as an emerging trend that will continue to expand further,” explains Hemakiran Gupta, country manager for TCS Belgium.
After 16 years of operating in Belgium the Indian IT major today accounts for some 7per cent of the country’s IT pie. It may not sound huge but adisproportionate percentage of TCS’ European revenues come from this small country of 10 million people.
“After Germany and the Netherlands, Belgium ranks third in terms of our continental European operations,” says Gupta.
The company already has 700 consultants working with Belgian clients — 200 located locally. Out of Belgium’s top 20 firms, eight are TCS clients including the telecom heavyweight Belgacom, retail giant Colruyt and the world’s largest maker of beer, InBev.
A recent report by outsourcing advisory firm Quantum Step put the source-able IT sector in Belgium at $6.5 billion for the coming year, claiming that customers in the country will spend $1.8 billion on infrastructure management outsourcing, almost $2.6 billion on application development and maintenance and nearly $2 billion on BPO.
Gupta agrees that this is asignificant opportunity for Indian IT although he stresses that the competition is stiff. He says that of the $6.5 billion, $1 billion has already been sourced. That leaves $5.5 billion, but Indian companies still account for a relatively small portion of the market. TCS’ main competitors include Accenture, Capgemini and IBM.
Given Belgium’s modest size local competition is limited. This is not the case in other European countries like France for example. According to Kumar, 70 per cent of France’s $30-billion IT market remains controlled by local companies.
“Europe,” he explains, “is still very domestically oriented.” One reason is linguistic. Indian companies pride themselves on their English but in France or Spain, English is not enough.
“In Europe the social sector is very sensitive,” adds Gupta. Sensitivity to job losses due to offshoring is much stronger in Europe than the US or UK he explains. “They are used to doing things a certain way here and they need to be convinced that an Indian company can adapt to their way.” Indian companies have found it tough going in part because they are “very revenue-focused and so don’t prioritise getting into the social fabric,” which is necessary according to Gupta.
“We are aware that in Europe we need a different strategy to that in the US. Pure offshoring can never work here. On the other hand, pure localisation which is feasible in Latin America and other emerging markets is not appropriate for Europe either, due to financial reasons. In Europe we need a middle-path between localisation and offshoring,” concludes Kumar.
Gupta and Kumar agree that the economic recession has been a mixed bag for TCS in Europe. The majority of the company’s clients are in the banking and financial sectors.
TCS has consequently suffered from the deferral and cancellation of new projects.
On the other hand, the financial crisis has also forced companies to look at new models of operating and saving costs. “Companies are increasingly convinced of the cost-effectiveness of a projectmode rather than a staff augmentation-mode,” says Gupta.
“In Belgium we are seeing non-top 20 companies also becoming interested in outsourcing for the first time,” reveals Gupta. He says TCS is bullish on the market, with ambitions to transform itself from the leading Indian IT service provider, to the clear number one IT service provider, in Belgium. “It’s very achievable. We only need to triple in size,” he grins confidently.
Out of Belgium’s top 20 firms, eight are TCS clients, including telecom heavyweight Belgacom ( pictured ), retail giant Colruyt and the world’s largest maker of beer, InBev
My Comments:
From the above news one can derive that new frontiers are opening up for IT sector and that is coming from European countries.If one will see the revenues from European countires has been increasing year by year.
Well, that was what I was expecting and that is the reason I have included 4-5 IT stocks in my latest list.
If this is going to be the next growth driver for the IT sector then I think Indian Information sector is now again going to buzz and with no dollar depreciation coming in as they will deal with Euros and Pounds, that will do whole lot of good for the whole sector.
I remember I wrote 3-4 months back that IT sector can be an outperformer in next bull run and seems that my analysis seems on line with what is happening....
BTW, SRF ltd which was recomended here @153 on 24 Aug has crossed a double century and has still a long way to go.
So is Lumax Ind, Apar Ind and many more which I recomended here and A gr at damn cheap price......they are way above my recomended prices.....thrice, four times and more.......double I am not writing.........
I still Like Areva T&D......Siemens,Thermax,Alsthom , L&T is a Stock of the decade, next 10 years)....
One of my reader has written that someone copied my writing of" Deep Ind" and posted , in another forum , as like he has done himself.I also just came through another site of a very wellknown stock picker who has his own webstie and also charge for giving calls.He has also taken text from my post here ,DeepInd,as I can read the same lines in that call as well for Deep Ind.What I don't understand is why someone has to even copy my analysis, means text that I write in "My Comments"
Well, friends , the real trigger here is how you able to analyse the things when you go through reading a newspaper like ET,BS etc and come to the conclusion.That is a very important part of finding the stock early......and maybe some stock market expert are not that much able to look through what is coming , though they charge for their calls,and hence they have to copy "My Comments" as well.......but original will always be original and my readers will be the first to read and act upon.......but now as more and more people has started reading my post and my interpretation of stock market, readers needs to be extra catious while buying stocks as when the circumference of readers increases , one may lose buying stock which I recomend and can run up fast before one can catch.........so I suggest all my readers to act judiciously when I give a call for individual stock or a new list of my pick.......
Best Of Luck............
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Whom to believe ?......Nouriel Roubini or Marc Faber......
Global recession coming to an end: Nouriel Roubini
Economist Nouriel Roubini, the Chairman of RGEMonitor.com and one of the few people who foresaw the US housing bust that preceded the economic crisis of 2008-09, says the global recession is coming to an end. He, however, added that, contrary to consensus view, it would be a “weak, anemic, sub-par recovery,” and not a V-shaped one.
U-shaped recovery on cards
Roubini, also dubbed Dr Doom for long warning the advent of an economic crisis, said the labour market and consumer spend in the US remained weak. Capacity utilization in the corporate was below par as well, he said, and added that the damaged financial sector would result in credit growth being limited and investments not growing.
Roubini, however, did not rule out the chances of a double dip recession if private demand didn’t recover, the stimulus went away but oil prices continued to climb to USD 100 per barrel levels. “It's not my main scenario but there is a risk of that sort. The main scenario is one of anaemic recovery. I don't understand how this is going to be a rapid recovery to potential growth or above potential growth.”
US faces Catch-22
The US faced a dilemma over the direction of its fiscal and monetary policy, he said. “If you take away the monetary and fiscal stimulus away too soon, you end up like Japan 1998-2000 or the US in 1937-1939 — you have a double dip [into recession]. Taking the stimulus away right now when the private demand is still weak is a mistake,” he said. “If you maintain the stimulus, monetary and fiscal, and you have a runaway budget deficit and you've to keep monetising them, eventually that will lead to an unsustainable fiscal policy, increase in expected inflation and that could again crowd out recovery.”
The wall of liquidity chasing risk assets around the world was both good and bad, he said. “Some of it is good news because it leads to higher stock prices and some of it is dangerous as it leads to a sharp increase in all energy, food and commodity prices. There's going to be a negative shock on the commodity importing countries.”
Markets may correct
Stock markets around the world, which have run up heavily on hopes of a quick recovery, will have to correct if the flow of macro-economic news is not as good as expected, Roubini said.
My Commnets:
In a week we saw that two masters came out with entirely opposite view.....whom investor need to beleive.
Going by what I am writing , I am with Noureil Roubini and not with Marc Faber....
Economist Nouriel Roubini, the Chairman of RGEMonitor.com and one of the few people who foresaw the US housing bust that preceded the economic crisis of 2008-09, says the global recession is coming to an end. He, however, added that, contrary to consensus view, it would be a “weak, anemic, sub-par recovery,” and not a V-shaped one.
U-shaped recovery on cards
Roubini, also dubbed Dr Doom for long warning the advent of an economic crisis, said the labour market and consumer spend in the US remained weak. Capacity utilization in the corporate was below par as well, he said, and added that the damaged financial sector would result in credit growth being limited and investments not growing.
Roubini, however, did not rule out the chances of a double dip recession if private demand didn’t recover, the stimulus went away but oil prices continued to climb to USD 100 per barrel levels. “It's not my main scenario but there is a risk of that sort. The main scenario is one of anaemic recovery. I don't understand how this is going to be a rapid recovery to potential growth or above potential growth.”
US faces Catch-22
The US faced a dilemma over the direction of its fiscal and monetary policy, he said. “If you take away the monetary and fiscal stimulus away too soon, you end up like Japan 1998-2000 or the US in 1937-1939 — you have a double dip [into recession]. Taking the stimulus away right now when the private demand is still weak is a mistake,” he said. “If you maintain the stimulus, monetary and fiscal, and you have a runaway budget deficit and you've to keep monetising them, eventually that will lead to an unsustainable fiscal policy, increase in expected inflation and that could again crowd out recovery.”
The wall of liquidity chasing risk assets around the world was both good and bad, he said. “Some of it is good news because it leads to higher stock prices and some of it is dangerous as it leads to a sharp increase in all energy, food and commodity prices. There's going to be a negative shock on the commodity importing countries.”
Markets may correct
Stock markets around the world, which have run up heavily on hopes of a quick recovery, will have to correct if the flow of macro-economic news is not as good as expected, Roubini said.
My Commnets:
In a week we saw that two masters came out with entirely opposite view.....whom investor need to beleive.
Going by what I am writing , I am with Noureil Roubini and not with Marc Faber....
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Some stocks.........still looking good
Friends,
I am listing here some stocks which still looks good.
1)LT Foods
2)Indsil Hydro and Manganese Ltd
3)JBF Ind
4)Sahyadri Ind(My Old call)
5)Laffans Petro( My old call)
6)Supreme Petro
7)Cochin Mineral
8)Kilburn Chemical
9)Frontier Spring(Old call)
10)EPC Irrigation(Old call)
11)RS Software
12) Genesys Int
13)NIIT
14)Sudal Ind
15)TeleCanor Global
16)Sujana Towers
These are some stocks which looks still good to me ,maybe I have missed some.But these are all projections.They may perform or may not perform.
Now it will be difficult to give detail information on all of these stocks.Try to find information yourself and get convinced.......
These are all Cash Gr stock and hence they are risky.........take your own call.....
There are experts who use to say, that in Bull Run everything RUNS..........I have no arguements for them..........
I am listing here some stocks which still looks good.
1)LT Foods
2)Indsil Hydro and Manganese Ltd
3)JBF Ind
4)Sahyadri Ind(My Old call)
5)Laffans Petro( My old call)
6)Supreme Petro
7)Cochin Mineral
8)Kilburn Chemical
9)Frontier Spring(Old call)
10)EPC Irrigation(Old call)
11)RS Software
12) Genesys Int
13)NIIT
14)Sudal Ind
15)TeleCanor Global
16)Sujana Towers
These are some stocks which looks still good to me ,maybe I have missed some.But these are all projections.They may perform or may not perform.
Now it will be difficult to give detail information on all of these stocks.Try to find information yourself and get convinced.......
These are all Cash Gr stock and hence they are risky.........take your own call.....
There are experts who use to say, that in Bull Run everything RUNS..........I have no arguements for them..........
Thursday, October 1, 2009
No revival in US; big economic crisis ahead: Marc Faber
Taken from Moneycontrol website"
The US markets ended lower for the second session yesterday on the back of mixed global cues and disturbing job loss data. Does this mean we’re still not out of the woods? Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report feels nothing has been solved in the US in the last 6-9 months and that a big economic crisis was still to be seen ahead. “The policy makers in the US, are still in-charge and if you look at what has happened in the US over the last 6-9 months, nothing has been solved. It has been postponed through fiscal and monetary measures, precisely the measures that brought about the crisis in the first place. So enjoy your ride in asset classes as long as it lasts but I think we are seeding the next crisis and it may happen in the next three months, maybe tomorrow, maybe five years, maybe only in 10 years but I think the big crisis is still ahead of us.” He said that the markets were overbought and that the economic news was still not good.
My Comments:
Market Guru,Marc Faber,as he is fondly known as , has predicted that the Crisis is not over in USA and it is bound to come but when?he is unsure of.....He says that it can come tommorow,next 3 months, next 5 yrs or next 10 yrs........
Now if someone wants to believe Marc Faber and take position, what he should do?Remain scared for rest of the 10 yrs, 5 yrs , 3 months or tommorow?
One should keep in mind that the crisis can be averted, if it is for 5 yrs or 10 yrs ,then anything can happen and that crisis can be averted for infinite time.
The US markets ended lower for the second session yesterday on the back of mixed global cues and disturbing job loss data. Does this mean we’re still not out of the woods? Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report feels nothing has been solved in the US in the last 6-9 months and that a big economic crisis was still to be seen ahead. “The policy makers in the US, are still in-charge and if you look at what has happened in the US over the last 6-9 months, nothing has been solved. It has been postponed through fiscal and monetary measures, precisely the measures that brought about the crisis in the first place. So enjoy your ride in asset classes as long as it lasts but I think we are seeding the next crisis and it may happen in the next three months, maybe tomorrow, maybe five years, maybe only in 10 years but I think the big crisis is still ahead of us.” He said that the markets were overbought and that the economic news was still not good.
My Comments:
Market Guru,Marc Faber,as he is fondly known as , has predicted that the Crisis is not over in USA and it is bound to come but when?he is unsure of.....He says that it can come tommorow,next 3 months, next 5 yrs or next 10 yrs........
Now if someone wants to believe Marc Faber and take position, what he should do?Remain scared for rest of the 10 yrs, 5 yrs , 3 months or tommorow?
One should keep in mind that the crisis can be averted, if it is for 5 yrs or 10 yrs ,then anything can happen and that crisis can be averted for infinite time.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Excel Crop Care Ltd.........cmp..132......
Friends,
This is one co which I have recomended at 115 ,2-3 months back.It is a United Phosphorus gr co.
Excel Crop has a Mcap of 145 cr and sales turnover is 713 cr.The eps of last year was 25 and the Forex loss was at the tune of 18 cr.So if we add that amt the eps was as good as almost 40.
According to me this is a steal at this price where one gets into a very well managed gr co and also a very ambitious and responsible gr.
To my view ExcelCorp can give multiple returns from hereon.Even if we go by eps and p/e then it should easily touch 400 and on Mcap it can be 5-6 times from here...These are all forward looking statement and I reserve my right to be wrong.
Excel Crop Care Ltd.........
Excel Industries Limited, our founding company, started off in a Kitchen laboratory in 1941. Today it is ranked among industry leaders with a turnover exceeding Rs. 4000 million. Since its inception, Excel Industries has built a solid history and reputation of developing, manufacturing and exporting chemicals. The company achieved over 100 product nd process breakthroughs that are serving the specific needs of various clients even now. Excel Industries is the first company in Asia and third in the world to make Endosulfan Technical. The first in Asia to make Butene Diol. The second in the world to develop Glyphosate Technical. And the third company in the world to develop Aluminium Phosphide. Excel Industries has received various awards in recognition of their dedication and excellence in the field of chemicals. Excel Crop Care was set up in 2003 and actively promotes Integrated Pest Management (IPM) to Indian farmers. We are demonstrating the use of Integrated Crop Management (ICM) techniques to the farmers, using innovative methods. In keeping with the philosophy of our founder, Mr. C. C. Shroff, we at Excel Crop Care also believe that in every interaction with our clients, our individual as well as our corporate character, integrity and professionalism is under scrutiny. As a result, we always keep the virtues of high quality, cost effectiveness, consumer need fulfillment, fair prices and fair trade practices uppermost in our minds.
Excel Crop Care adopts an integrated approach to manufacturing and has built world-scale capacities to make Technical Actives and Formulations. To ensure quality and continuity of supply, we produce key raw material ourselves or source them from our associate companies. Leveraging our capabilities in basic chemistry, we have developed and built-up a range of formulations to cater to special needs arising from peculiar climatic and pest conditions. Excel Crop Care is known for mastering hazardous technologies and manufacturing corrosive compounds that others consider "difficult to make". We are among the world's leading manufacturers of Endosulfan, Glyphosate, Chlorpyriphos, Aluminium Phosphide and Zinc Phosphide, which are made to the highest purity. All our manufacturing plants are the result of in-house research and engineering and have been installed by our own project team. Our main manufacturing plant at Bhavnagar is ISO 9002, ISO 14000 and OSHAS 18000 certified and meets statutory requirements on quality and safety. The more recent plants at Gajod and Silvassa are equipped with state-of-art machinery and are in the process of obtaining the ISO certification. Our quality consciousness is not limited to manufacturing. Each of our manufacturing locations has a well-equipped R&D facility - which is Government of India approved - that's busy exploring newer eco-friendly chemistries for crop care and effective formulations technologies and recipes. This helps us to serve the changing needs of our demanding customers in cost-effective ways.
Excel Crop Care's Technical Actives, bulk and branded formulations are presently registered and marketed in Asia Pacific, South Asia, West Asia, Africa, Europe (West & East including CIS countries) Central & South America and the USA.Our exports presently account for about 25 % of the turnover, but will play a more significant role in the company's business in the coming years. Besides the necessary infrastructure at the plants, we have a subsidiary in Antwerp, Belgium manned by professionals who perfectly understand the requirements and specialties of customers in that part of the world. Herewe also stock key products to reduce transit time and meet urgent customer needs.To become a truly global company, we plan to strengthen our stewardship role in promoting molecules where we have core competencies.Initially, we intend gaining market access in countries that have crops, climatic conditions and size of land holdings similar to India. For this, we are joining hands with companies across the world that offer complementary skills, products and services. Pooling resources and knowledge base will speed up market access and build a firm stronghold in these countries. In return we will offer our marketing and distribution strengths and our knowledge base in India.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
IT Sector....
Friends,
I remember I once wrote that IT sector can be an out performer in next bull run.That is what we are seeing now.
Infosys is making newer highs.So is many IT stocks.The current first comes in biggies and then it goes down to Midcap and then in Small caps.
Nifty yesterday made a new high, 17 months high and created a record while none was ready to stick out the neck and say that Nifty can touch 5k.
The news that are coming from here, USA, that economy is bottoming out and less room for it go down where it was in last Sep 08, when the Lehman brs news broke, that has bygone.
But the confidence seen in IT sector is due to this news, that USA is bottomning out and that is good news for IT sector.I have posted article which was showing that Germany, France and other euoropian countries are getting over from the reccession.
I also wrote that Finance sector is a dark horse and that we are seeing as well.HDFC and likes are making newer highs.Keep a tab on IFCI and IDBI.
The Clean Energy stock will have a bull run next year due to US Prez Obama emphasizing on it more.Look out for those stocks.Guj Fluoro is a gem in A gr stock.
But my all time favourite in this sector has been Navin Flourine and I recomended again at below 100 here few months back.It is already over 250.Watch out for this counter.Lots of steam is still left in Navin.
Other stocks that comes to my mind and which I have recomended time and again here is Tanfac,Aluminuim Flouride etc.
Seems Apar Ind has started its upward journey.Keep a tab on Max India, Lumax Ind,Polyplex Corp.
I just came through a stock named Atlanta Ltd an Eng co .I remember when it got listed it went on to touch 1400 and it has come down to mere 120 now.Seems to me a very good pick.
UTV is also looking very good still and so is TRF which I recomended at 327 with Bonus and it is again 500 XB.Great co.
TRF was first recomended by me at ISG gr at 153.I remember I also recomended Symonds Marshall when I use to write at mmb.It has come out with great results and looking good now as well.
Well, these are my good calls.I have failed as well in many as well.Like Gujarat Carbon and likes.They faired miserably.Sometimes some stocks are such that they do not run in one bull run but moves fast in another run.In last bull run, cos like Hind Oil Explo(HOEC),Ind Swift Ltd,Ind Swift Lab, Surya Pharma, Jupiter Bio, Aptech Ltd didn't move as much they were supposed to move due to their fundamentals .Maybe this time they can outperform the sensex and the market too.We are already seeing HOEC making newer highs.Let us see what happens to the rest of them.
Update:
I take back my call on Atlanta Ltd.I completely overlooked the news on it by SEBI.
Please do not go for Atlanta Ltd.
I thanks Thinck tank for that.....
I remember I once wrote that IT sector can be an out performer in next bull run.That is what we are seeing now.
Infosys is making newer highs.So is many IT stocks.The current first comes in biggies and then it goes down to Midcap and then in Small caps.
Nifty yesterday made a new high, 17 months high and created a record while none was ready to stick out the neck and say that Nifty can touch 5k.
The news that are coming from here, USA, that economy is bottoming out and less room for it go down where it was in last Sep 08, when the Lehman brs news broke, that has bygone.
But the confidence seen in IT sector is due to this news, that USA is bottomning out and that is good news for IT sector.I have posted article which was showing that Germany, France and other euoropian countries are getting over from the reccession.
I also wrote that Finance sector is a dark horse and that we are seeing as well.HDFC and likes are making newer highs.Keep a tab on IFCI and IDBI.
The Clean Energy stock will have a bull run next year due to US Prez Obama emphasizing on it more.Look out for those stocks.Guj Fluoro is a gem in A gr stock.
But my all time favourite in this sector has been Navin Flourine and I recomended again at below 100 here few months back.It is already over 250.Watch out for this counter.Lots of steam is still left in Navin.
Other stocks that comes to my mind and which I have recomended time and again here is Tanfac,Aluminuim Flouride etc.
Seems Apar Ind has started its upward journey.Keep a tab on Max India, Lumax Ind,Polyplex Corp.
I just came through a stock named Atlanta Ltd an Eng co .I remember when it got listed it went on to touch 1400 and it has come down to mere 120 now.Seems to me a very good pick.
UTV is also looking very good still and so is TRF which I recomended at 327 with Bonus and it is again 500 XB.Great co.
TRF was first recomended by me at ISG gr at 153.I remember I also recomended Symonds Marshall when I use to write at mmb.It has come out with great results and looking good now as well.
Well, these are my good calls.I have failed as well in many as well.Like Gujarat Carbon and likes.They faired miserably.Sometimes some stocks are such that they do not run in one bull run but moves fast in another run.In last bull run, cos like Hind Oil Explo(HOEC),Ind Swift Ltd,Ind Swift Lab, Surya Pharma, Jupiter Bio, Aptech Ltd didn't move as much they were supposed to move due to their fundamentals .Maybe this time they can outperform the sensex and the market too.We are already seeing HOEC making newer highs.Let us see what happens to the rest of them.
Update:
I take back my call on Atlanta Ltd.I completely overlooked the news on it by SEBI.
Please do not go for Atlanta Ltd.
I thanks Thinck tank for that.....
Monday, September 21, 2009
Deep Ind...........cmp Rs 112.95........
Friends,
Deep Ind is in Gas sector.Actually gas compression company.DEEp Ind is well diversified Oil & Gas Company with business interest in Air and Gas compression, Drilling, Work over and Oil & Gas Exploration and Production.
Deep Industries Limited is a pioneer in the service sector of oil and gas fields, mainly in Gas compression services. We also provide work-over, Drilling Rig and allied services. The Company was formed in the year 1991 primarily for providing valued, dedicated and professional services to the oil & Gas client in India. After 16 years of featured services to the esteemed clients, namely Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGCL), Assam gas, and the Private Operators like Niko-GSPCL, CPCL, GACL, GSPL, HRD, JTI Selan Explorations etc to their utmost satisfaction. Deep Industries Ltd is focusing towards expanding its operation to United States of America (USA), Asian countries and the southern part of India for providing services as an outsourcing service provider to Oil & Gas Industry.
Deep Industries Limited has been awarded one onshore Oil and Natural Gas block by Government of India.DIL has been awarded two Coal bed Methane (CBM) blocks by Government of India in CBM – III round. DIL has also been awarded service contract for the development of three onshore marginal fields at Ghotaru, Bankia and Kharatar in Jaisalmer district of Rajasthan.
The company is prepared to undertake significant growth and succeed to achieve through focusing on specialized activities and offering a broad spectrum of skills to serve a wide clientele base for Oil and Gas Exploration, Engineering, Servicing, Transportation, Natural Gas Compression, work over and drilling and other allied services furnishing entire range of activities from conceptualization to completion as required by Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Industries.
1)Oil and GAS
Deep Industries Limited has been awarded one onshore Oil and Natural Gas block by Government of India in recent New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP)-VII round.
2)Coal Bed Methane ( CBM )
Deep Industries Limited (DIL) along with its consortium members has been awarded CBM blocks under the third round of Coalbed Methane Exploration policy. Subsequently DIL signed a production sharing contract with GOI for exploration of Coalbed Methane for a period of 34.5 years.
3)Marginal Fields:
IL is working on Marginal field Natural Gas projects at Ghotaru, Bankia and Kharatar in Jaisalmer district of Rajasthan.
4)Compression:
Range of Compressors: 100 HP to 4000 HP
Drives: Natural Gas Engine, Diesel Engine & Electric Motor
Long and Short term Rental Contracts
Wet Lease/ Dry Lease
Total Operation and Maintenance Contracts
Supply of Spare Parts & Components
5)Workover and Drilling:
Range of Rigs: 30 Tons to 100 Tons, 150 HP to 2000 HP
Long and Short term Rental Contracts
Total Operation and Maintenance Contracts
Supply of Spare Parts & Components
Integrated Services.
ORDERS:
1)Deep Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has obtained Letter of Award from ONGC, Ahmedabad Asset for hiring the services of compression of natural gas at Ramol GGS for Ahmedabad Asset approx. value of contract aggregating to Rs 77.50 million.1. Location : Ramol GGS- Approx. Contract Value (in Rs.) : 77.50 million
2)Deep Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has obtained Notification of Award from ONGC, Rajahmundry Asset for Charter Hiring one Work Over Rig of 100 Ton capacity aggregating to Contract Value Rs 296.24 Lacs.
3)Deep Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has obtained following Extention of Contract agreement with GACL and Letter of Awards from ONGC of following Compressors for Hiring of services for Natural Gas Compression aggregating to Rs 764.85 Lacs.1. LOA From: GACL, Vadodara- Approx. Contract Value in Rs - 44.35 lacs2. LOA From: ONGC Assam AssetApprox. Contract Value in Rs - 187.60 lacs3. LOA From: ONGC Rajahmundry AssetApprox. Contract Value in Rs - 532.90 lacs.
4)Deep Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has obtained Letter of Award from ONGC, Ankleshwar Asset and Mehsana Asset for deployment of following Compressors for compressing the natural gas at various locations of Ankleshwar Asset and Mehsana Asset approx. value of contract aggregating to Rs 2299.50 Lakhs.1. Location - North Gandhar, AnkleshwarApprox Contract Value - Rs 328.50 Lacs2. Location - Balol, MehsanaApprox Contract Value - Rs 1971.00 Lacs.
5)Deep Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Company had bidded for the Blocks under New Exploration Licensing Policy - Seventh Round (NELP - VII). The Company has been successful in getting award of Block No. SR-ONN-2005/I at Satpura - Rewa (Chattisgarh). The area of Block is 789 Square Kilometers. The Company had bidded for this block in consortium with Deep Energy LLC, Kanvel Finance Pvt Ltd and Savla Enterprise Pvt Ltd.Following is the sharing pattern of this block:
Block : Satpura - Rewa (SR-ONN-2005/I)- Deep Industries Ltd : 70%- Deep Energy LLC : 10%- Kanvel Finance Pvt Ltd : 10%- Savla Enterprise Pvt Ltd : 10%.
My Comments:
Deep Ind is an excellent growth company.Ril Ind is finding more and more gas in Kaveri Basin etc and Gas will be produced in abundence and compressing of Gas will be a prime priority.Deep ind is going to get many more contracts in future.That is what I am seeing.
In last bull run it made a high of Rs 271 and it is still available over 50% cheaper.The eps is just around 4 for full year and still price is Rs 112 .Looking at the future growth market is giving huge discounting for this wonderful co.
According to my view Deep Ind is a buy at these level as well.Though it has runup recently I still think this is a buy.Market is knowing something about it and hence it is running now.
Deep Ind is in Gas sector.Actually gas compression company.DEEp Ind is well diversified Oil & Gas Company with business interest in Air and Gas compression, Drilling, Work over and Oil & Gas Exploration and Production.
Deep Industries Limited is a pioneer in the service sector of oil and gas fields, mainly in Gas compression services. We also provide work-over, Drilling Rig and allied services. The Company was formed in the year 1991 primarily for providing valued, dedicated and professional services to the oil & Gas client in India. After 16 years of featured services to the esteemed clients, namely Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGCL), Assam gas, and the Private Operators like Niko-GSPCL, CPCL, GACL, GSPL, HRD, JTI Selan Explorations etc to their utmost satisfaction. Deep Industries Ltd is focusing towards expanding its operation to United States of America (USA), Asian countries and the southern part of India for providing services as an outsourcing service provider to Oil & Gas Industry.
Deep Industries Limited has been awarded one onshore Oil and Natural Gas block by Government of India.DIL has been awarded two Coal bed Methane (CBM) blocks by Government of India in CBM – III round. DIL has also been awarded service contract for the development of three onshore marginal fields at Ghotaru, Bankia and Kharatar in Jaisalmer district of Rajasthan.
The company is prepared to undertake significant growth and succeed to achieve through focusing on specialized activities and offering a broad spectrum of skills to serve a wide clientele base for Oil and Gas Exploration, Engineering, Servicing, Transportation, Natural Gas Compression, work over and drilling and other allied services furnishing entire range of activities from conceptualization to completion as required by Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Industries.
1)Oil and GAS
Deep Industries Limited has been awarded one onshore Oil and Natural Gas block by Government of India in recent New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP)-VII round.
2)Coal Bed Methane ( CBM )
Deep Industries Limited (DIL) along with its consortium members has been awarded CBM blocks under the third round of Coalbed Methane Exploration policy. Subsequently DIL signed a production sharing contract with GOI for exploration of Coalbed Methane for a period of 34.5 years.
3)Marginal Fields:
IL is working on Marginal field Natural Gas projects at Ghotaru, Bankia and Kharatar in Jaisalmer district of Rajasthan.
4)Compression:
Range of Compressors: 100 HP to 4000 HP
Drives: Natural Gas Engine, Diesel Engine & Electric Motor
Long and Short term Rental Contracts
Wet Lease/ Dry Lease
Total Operation and Maintenance Contracts
Supply of Spare Parts & Components
5)Workover and Drilling:
Range of Rigs: 30 Tons to 100 Tons, 150 HP to 2000 HP
Long and Short term Rental Contracts
Total Operation and Maintenance Contracts
Supply of Spare Parts & Components
Integrated Services.
ORDERS:
1)Deep Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has obtained Letter of Award from ONGC, Ahmedabad Asset for hiring the services of compression of natural gas at Ramol GGS for Ahmedabad Asset approx. value of contract aggregating to Rs 77.50 million.1. Location : Ramol GGS- Approx. Contract Value (in Rs.) : 77.50 million
2)Deep Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has obtained Notification of Award from ONGC, Rajahmundry Asset for Charter Hiring one Work Over Rig of 100 Ton capacity aggregating to Contract Value Rs 296.24 Lacs.
3)Deep Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has obtained following Extention of Contract agreement with GACL and Letter of Awards from ONGC of following Compressors for Hiring of services for Natural Gas Compression aggregating to Rs 764.85 Lacs.1. LOA From: GACL, Vadodara- Approx. Contract Value in Rs - 44.35 lacs2. LOA From: ONGC Assam AssetApprox. Contract Value in Rs - 187.60 lacs3. LOA From: ONGC Rajahmundry AssetApprox. Contract Value in Rs - 532.90 lacs.
4)Deep Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has obtained Letter of Award from ONGC, Ankleshwar Asset and Mehsana Asset for deployment of following Compressors for compressing the natural gas at various locations of Ankleshwar Asset and Mehsana Asset approx. value of contract aggregating to Rs 2299.50 Lakhs.1. Location - North Gandhar, AnkleshwarApprox Contract Value - Rs 328.50 Lacs2. Location - Balol, MehsanaApprox Contract Value - Rs 1971.00 Lacs.
5)Deep Industries Ltd has informed BSE that the Company had bidded for the Blocks under New Exploration Licensing Policy - Seventh Round (NELP - VII). The Company has been successful in getting award of Block No. SR-ONN-2005/I at Satpura - Rewa (Chattisgarh). The area of Block is 789 Square Kilometers. The Company had bidded for this block in consortium with Deep Energy LLC, Kanvel Finance Pvt Ltd and Savla Enterprise Pvt Ltd.Following is the sharing pattern of this block:
Block : Satpura - Rewa (SR-ONN-2005/I)- Deep Industries Ltd : 70%- Deep Energy LLC : 10%- Kanvel Finance Pvt Ltd : 10%- Savla Enterprise Pvt Ltd : 10%.
My Comments:
Deep Ind is an excellent growth company.Ril Ind is finding more and more gas in Kaveri Basin etc and Gas will be produced in abundence and compressing of Gas will be a prime priority.Deep ind is going to get many more contracts in future.That is what I am seeing.
In last bull run it made a high of Rs 271 and it is still available over 50% cheaper.The eps is just around 4 for full year and still price is Rs 112 .Looking at the future growth market is giving huge discounting for this wonderful co.
According to my view Deep Ind is a buy at these level as well.Though it has runup recently I still think this is a buy.Market is knowing something about it and hence it is running now.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Feeling left....!
Dear Friends,
I have been writing since long that we should not break 12500.Analyst , chartist all are waiting for a huge correction of 3000 points and over but it is eluding.And that will never come.1000-1500 points is always there for the take but forget 3000-4000 points.
I think people are still dreaming of market tanking in big way and they will be able to buy those stocks which they sold earlier , thinking that they has run up fast and they need to bookprofit.They did that and they lost the delivary and they are cursing themsleves and are giving all kind of reason for market to tank but unsuccessful.
If wishes were horses!But it never is and perticularly with the stock market it never comes true.
It is a simple common sense thinking that market never gives chance to buy stocks at your will.It never happens.One needs to be very lucky to have that.
When market went up from 8000 to 10500 experts said now 10500 is a very big resistance and it will not be able to cross that and many sold stocks thinking that they will again buy at 9000 if not at 8500.But that never happened.Same thing happened when market was facing resistance at 12500.But in one go on Election result day, market went for an upper circuit and touched 14k and uptill now we have not seen 12700 which was known as a major resistance and major trend setter.Experts were gaga that if 12700 will be crossed desicively then the trend has changed.
Then came the resistance of 14500 and that is also surpassed.
And experts are still waiting for a big correction.Market will never let them buy stock at the level they wants to.Operators are not fools to give them stocsk at their price.When market was at 8k and went to 10500, investors were feeling it has gone up too fast and hence sold stocks.Market still went up and up and ultimately we are over 16k.....!
Now Enam sec is saying that perhaps even at 17k it is not overvalued and maybe at 20k they can feel it is overvalued.
Buy stocks and capilatize on it.Hold it after partial profit booking .That is the order of the day.Never sell 100% of any stocks unless you are convinced that some bad news has come and growth will get hindered.
People who sold Kwality after buying at Rs 17 at 60 and 80 are repenting that they missed the biggest oppotunity.It went on to touch 535.There are many stocks like that.Once you sell out 100% , it is gone.So don't get out from it completely.
Market is looking good and will remain good.The heavy correction all are expecting is never going to come.1000-1500 point correction is always there for the taking.
I have been writing since long that we should not break 12500.Analyst , chartist all are waiting for a huge correction of 3000 points and over but it is eluding.And that will never come.1000-1500 points is always there for the take but forget 3000-4000 points.
I think people are still dreaming of market tanking in big way and they will be able to buy those stocks which they sold earlier , thinking that they has run up fast and they need to bookprofit.They did that and they lost the delivary and they are cursing themsleves and are giving all kind of reason for market to tank but unsuccessful.
If wishes were horses!But it never is and perticularly with the stock market it never comes true.
It is a simple common sense thinking that market never gives chance to buy stocks at your will.It never happens.One needs to be very lucky to have that.
When market went up from 8000 to 10500 experts said now 10500 is a very big resistance and it will not be able to cross that and many sold stocks thinking that they will again buy at 9000 if not at 8500.But that never happened.Same thing happened when market was facing resistance at 12500.But in one go on Election result day, market went for an upper circuit and touched 14k and uptill now we have not seen 12700 which was known as a major resistance and major trend setter.Experts were gaga that if 12700 will be crossed desicively then the trend has changed.
Then came the resistance of 14500 and that is also surpassed.
And experts are still waiting for a big correction.Market will never let them buy stock at the level they wants to.Operators are not fools to give them stocsk at their price.When market was at 8k and went to 10500, investors were feeling it has gone up too fast and hence sold stocks.Market still went up and up and ultimately we are over 16k.....!
Now Enam sec is saying that perhaps even at 17k it is not overvalued and maybe at 20k they can feel it is overvalued.
Buy stocks and capilatize on it.Hold it after partial profit booking .That is the order of the day.Never sell 100% of any stocks unless you are convinced that some bad news has come and growth will get hindered.
People who sold Kwality after buying at Rs 17 at 60 and 80 are repenting that they missed the biggest oppotunity.It went on to touch 535.There are many stocks like that.Once you sell out 100% , it is gone.So don't get out from it completely.
Market is looking good and will remain good.The heavy correction all are expecting is never going to come.1000-1500 point correction is always there for the taking.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Petron Eng and Construction Ltd....cmp...169.60.....A Star in making....
Friends,
I have come out with another virgin stock named Petron Engineering Construction Ltd .
This co is having a Sales turn over of Rs 457 cr and Mcap is just 127 cr.Eps is just around 8 but still it went for 20% upper circuit and ended at 169!
I will not write more on Petron Eng as someone told me I use to write from the website and hence I would say that you all will look at the website and read it........
My job is to bring out stock undiscovered and that I have done........
I have come out with another virgin stock named Petron Engineering Construction Ltd .
This co is having a Sales turn over of Rs 457 cr and Mcap is just 127 cr.Eps is just around 8 but still it went for 20% upper circuit and ended at 169!
I will not write more on Petron Eng as someone told me I use to write from the website and hence I would say that you all will look at the website and read it........
My job is to bring out stock undiscovered and that I have done........
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Global stocks at new 11-month highREUTERS 16 September 2009, 04:58pm IST
LONDON: World equities rose on Wednesday to new 11-month highs, after upbeat US data boosted faith in an economic recovery, persuading more investors to sell their low-yield dollars to buy growth-oriented stocks and commodities. This week's data showing a jump in US retail sales has been interpreted as another sign the world's biggest economy is indeed on the road to recovery - signals confirmed by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke who said on Tuesday the worst US recession since the 1930s was probably over. The optimism saw fresh cash flood to stock markets worldwide and bolstered oil to above $71 a barrel and gold to 18-month highs. The dollar however fell to a one-year low against a currency basket as investors shifted to riskier assets. World stocks rose 0.8 per cent to the highest levels since early October 2008, while emerging stocks surged 1.5 per cent to a new one-year high, trading at levels last touched before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. "When you have comments coming out from Bernanke about a technical recession ending, that's increasing the pressure on the bears, there's a bit of a bear squeeze going on," said Mark Robinson, head of equity research at Unicredit in London. "There is also a stronger fundamental element - the G10 is pulling out of the slump and Asia is clearly in a V-shape (recovery). That's driving risk trade and commodities -- in the last week and a half, and particularly in the last 24 hours, we have seen a commodity stocks trade," Robinson added. The FTSEurofirst index of top European shares rose 0.8 per cent, its eighth rise in nine sessions to the highest since October 2008. The index is up 20 per cent this year. Asian markets set Wednesday's buoyant tone, sweeping to new 2009 highs, with exporters like South Korea and Australia up 1.8 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively. Japan's benchmark Nikkei added a more modest 0.5 per cent, restrained in part by uncertainty over the policies of new Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama. The Bank of Japan began a two-day meeting but no policy change is anticipated. Investors even managed to overlook a 1 percent fall in Shanghai, virtually the only Asian bourse to ease on Wednesday as investors booked profits after three days of gains. The 2.7 per cent jump in US August retail sales - the fastest growth in 3-1/2 years added to expectations US economic growth would stage a sizeable rebound in the third quarter, as businesses rebuild inventories to meet demand. That augurs well for the currencies of exporting nations, especially the big commodity producers like South Africa, South Korea and Australia, probably at the expense of the dollar which slipped as deep as 76.376 against a basket of currencies - the lowest since last October. The euro powered to new 2009 highs around $1.4690. The greenback has shed 2.5 per cent against the currency basket this month and is down almost 5 per cent since early-July. "As the global recovery continues and risk diversification takes place we could see the US dollar stay under pressure for the next six months," said Amber Rabinov, an economist in foreign exchange and international economics at ANZ in Sydney. The yen gained to a near seven-month high versus the dollar after Japan's incoming finance minister said a strong yen had advantages for the nation's economy. Silver and platinum prices rose in gold's wake while growth optimism boosted copper and other base metals across the board. But despite overall exuberance there is some caution, analysts said, citing warnings by the Fed's Bernanke that recovery will be slow and it will take time to create new jobs. Major indexes seem hesitant to make the jump that would take them past the key one-year anniversary of Lehman Brothers' fall. "Both sides of the Atlantic are saying we are now out of recession but growth is going to be slow and anaemic," said Justin Urquhart Stewart, director at Seven Asset Management. "The market still has an attitude that money is to be invested and it's fair value but the economy is showing there is still going to be weakness,” he added.
LONDON: World equities rose on Wednesday to new 11-month highs, after upbeat US data boosted faith in an economic recovery, persuading more investors to sell their low-yield dollars to buy growth-oriented stocks and commodities. This week's data showing a jump in US retail sales has been interpreted as another sign the world's biggest economy is indeed on the road to recovery - signals confirmed by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke who said on Tuesday the worst US recession since the 1930s was probably over. The optimism saw fresh cash flood to stock markets worldwide and bolstered oil to above $71 a barrel and gold to 18-month highs. The dollar however fell to a one-year low against a currency basket as investors shifted to riskier assets. World stocks rose 0.8 per cent to the highest levels since early October 2008, while emerging stocks surged 1.5 per cent to a new one-year high, trading at levels last touched before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. "When you have comments coming out from Bernanke about a technical recession ending, that's increasing the pressure on the bears, there's a bit of a bear squeeze going on," said Mark Robinson, head of equity research at Unicredit in London. "There is also a stronger fundamental element - the G10 is pulling out of the slump and Asia is clearly in a V-shape (recovery). That's driving risk trade and commodities -- in the last week and a half, and particularly in the last 24 hours, we have seen a commodity stocks trade," Robinson added. The FTSEurofirst index of top European shares rose 0.8 per cent, its eighth rise in nine sessions to the highest since October 2008. The index is up 20 per cent this year. Asian markets set Wednesday's buoyant tone, sweeping to new 2009 highs, with exporters like South Korea and Australia up 1.8 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively. Japan's benchmark Nikkei added a more modest 0.5 per cent, restrained in part by uncertainty over the policies of new Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama. The Bank of Japan began a two-day meeting but no policy change is anticipated. Investors even managed to overlook a 1 percent fall in Shanghai, virtually the only Asian bourse to ease on Wednesday as investors booked profits after three days of gains. The 2.7 per cent jump in US August retail sales - the fastest growth in 3-1/2 years added to expectations US economic growth would stage a sizeable rebound in the third quarter, as businesses rebuild inventories to meet demand. That augurs well for the currencies of exporting nations, especially the big commodity producers like South Africa, South Korea and Australia, probably at the expense of the dollar which slipped as deep as 76.376 against a basket of currencies - the lowest since last October. The euro powered to new 2009 highs around $1.4690. The greenback has shed 2.5 per cent against the currency basket this month and is down almost 5 per cent since early-July. "As the global recovery continues and risk diversification takes place we could see the US dollar stay under pressure for the next six months," said Amber Rabinov, an economist in foreign exchange and international economics at ANZ in Sydney. The yen gained to a near seven-month high versus the dollar after Japan's incoming finance minister said a strong yen had advantages for the nation's economy. Silver and platinum prices rose in gold's wake while growth optimism boosted copper and other base metals across the board. But despite overall exuberance there is some caution, analysts said, citing warnings by the Fed's Bernanke that recovery will be slow and it will take time to create new jobs. Major indexes seem hesitant to make the jump that would take them past the key one-year anniversary of Lehman Brothers' fall. "Both sides of the Atlantic are saying we are now out of recession but growth is going to be slow and anaemic," said Justin Urquhart Stewart, director at Seven Asset Management. "The market still has an attitude that money is to be invested and it's fair value but the economy is showing there is still going to be weakness,” he added.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
A Request.....
Dear Friends,
I request all readers that please do not ask personally for any individual multibagger stock.I can't write to everyone which stocks can become multibagger.Anything I write have potential of becoming a multibagger.
I have seen that though scores of stocks which I have recomended has still not run, and one can buy those very easily, readers still ask me which are my top 4-5 picks.They wants me to say again for their satisfaction.I understand that.But there are no top 5 picks.It means that they are not reading what I write properly.I have written many times which stock is going to be a multibagger is not known.Hence one needs to go for what ever they can.But still they ask for my TOP 5 picks.
Please don't do it.
Remember , I am doing this job without any monetary benifit.This is just my part time and whatever I do is my passion.I am trying my level best to write here as and when time permits me.
After all I am also working at my job. I have to first fulfill my that responsibilities .I am trying to just getting adjusted to the new atmosphere in USA.I am still trying to find a decent job here.Whatever I am making is enough just to run my house and that is not sufficient for me if I wants to prosper.....
I hate to write this , but I have no choice.
If anyone can help me in finding a decent job I am always available.My id is written at the top of my blog.One can contact me writing to that id.
I request all readers that please do not ask personally for any individual multibagger stock.I can't write to everyone which stocks can become multibagger.Anything I write have potential of becoming a multibagger.
I have seen that though scores of stocks which I have recomended has still not run, and one can buy those very easily, readers still ask me which are my top 4-5 picks.They wants me to say again for their satisfaction.I understand that.But there are no top 5 picks.It means that they are not reading what I write properly.I have written many times which stock is going to be a multibagger is not known.Hence one needs to go for what ever they can.But still they ask for my TOP 5 picks.
Please don't do it.
Remember , I am doing this job without any monetary benifit.This is just my part time and whatever I do is my passion.I am trying my level best to write here as and when time permits me.
After all I am also working at my job. I have to first fulfill my that responsibilities .I am trying to just getting adjusted to the new atmosphere in USA.I am still trying to find a decent job here.Whatever I am making is enough just to run my house and that is not sufficient for me if I wants to prosper.....
I hate to write this , but I have no choice.
If anyone can help me in finding a decent job I am always available.My id is written at the top of my blog.One can contact me writing to that id.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
About Market and some old recomendation.....
Freinds,
Market was exhibiting weakness last week and everyone was sure that the correction has sets in.And actually from there market turned around to cross previous high and making a new 52week high crossing 16k and 4750 which many chartist were not ready to believe.
Untill bears are confident of market going below 4k , it will keep rising.
I have earlier stated in past when market was even was not over 10k that we will see a new high this year , by dec 09 or next year and we should probably see 31k by Dec 2010.I still stick with my view.Ofcourse, I reserve my right to be wrong but what I am seeing is what I am writing.
US economy is slowly stabilizing.Whatever the experts says , US cannot go down.It is a huge country , 3 times bigger then India and it is the largest consumer of Oil and consumer product worldover.
Chinese market will also do good.Don't worry on that front.
Moreover , I suggest all my readers not to go by figures from CMIE, ASSCOM etc.They are good for nothing.Have your own vision.Be rationale.Try to justify yourself asking yorself that the report saying is correct or not.One of the reader wrote me that CMIE has come out with report that Alumnium product will take a beating and in 48 hrs the report was revised the otherway.There was no way , this was going to happen.When India needs so much of Power,how come Aluminium product can see downward spiral?
Read everything but take decision of yourself.That goes with me as well.After all I can also err.Before investing in my picks ask your self as well.Double check from various other source.Then invest.It is afterall your own money.
Market is at 16k and still loads of cash gr stocks are way below their 52 week high.They have to buckup the trend.B gr should outperform A gr from hereon.It doesn't mean that A gr will not move atall but the return will be more in B gr.
I last recomended Lesha Energy and Telecanor Global.Both gave chances to buy them after I gave a call.Now they have started upper circuits.
India is on upper curve of growth and hence market should do well.Money are to be made here and nowhere else.FII's flow will continue.
Market experts says , 2003 to 2008 was a liquidity driven market.But that phenomenon is world over.If liquidity is quezzed then any economy or market can tank.Liquidity brings cash and uplift in economy.Without money no economy can survive.It is another side of the coin.
Market was exhibiting weakness last week and everyone was sure that the correction has sets in.And actually from there market turned around to cross previous high and making a new 52week high crossing 16k and 4750 which many chartist were not ready to believe.
Untill bears are confident of market going below 4k , it will keep rising.
I have earlier stated in past when market was even was not over 10k that we will see a new high this year , by dec 09 or next year and we should probably see 31k by Dec 2010.I still stick with my view.Ofcourse, I reserve my right to be wrong but what I am seeing is what I am writing.
US economy is slowly stabilizing.Whatever the experts says , US cannot go down.It is a huge country , 3 times bigger then India and it is the largest consumer of Oil and consumer product worldover.
Chinese market will also do good.Don't worry on that front.
Moreover , I suggest all my readers not to go by figures from CMIE, ASSCOM etc.They are good for nothing.Have your own vision.Be rationale.Try to justify yourself asking yorself that the report saying is correct or not.One of the reader wrote me that CMIE has come out with report that Alumnium product will take a beating and in 48 hrs the report was revised the otherway.There was no way , this was going to happen.When India needs so much of Power,how come Aluminium product can see downward spiral?
Read everything but take decision of yourself.That goes with me as well.After all I can also err.Before investing in my picks ask your self as well.Double check from various other source.Then invest.It is afterall your own money.
Market is at 16k and still loads of cash gr stocks are way below their 52 week high.They have to buckup the trend.B gr should outperform A gr from hereon.It doesn't mean that A gr will not move atall but the return will be more in B gr.
I last recomended Lesha Energy and Telecanor Global.Both gave chances to buy them after I gave a call.Now they have started upper circuits.
India is on upper curve of growth and hence market should do well.Money are to be made here and nowhere else.FII's flow will continue.
Market experts says , 2003 to 2008 was a liquidity driven market.But that phenomenon is world over.If liquidity is quezzed then any economy or market can tank.Liquidity brings cash and uplift in economy.Without money no economy can survive.It is another side of the coin.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Apar Ind.........cmp..Rs .141.00.......A Gem in Making....
Friends,
I have written that SRF Ltd is a multibagger in making.I have read somewhere that one of the stock market gr has come out with a buy report on SRF Ltd.
Well, I am today here for writing on Apar Ind.I have mentioned this stock many times here as a BUY.I do not know anyone was convinced about this co and gohead and bought it.When I started recomending it here it was around 70.It has already doubled.
I know many readers just waits for more I write on certain stocks and only then they will buy.But that is not possible for me ,to write in detail on every stock.
Here is some snap shot of Apar Ind.
Read on:
Apar Industries Limited, founded by Late Mr. Dharmsinh D. Desai in the year 1958 is one among the best established companies in India operating in the diverse fields of electrical, metallurgical and chemical engineering. Over the ensuing years it has evolved to be a 500 million US Dollar diversified company offering value added products and services in Power Transmission Conductors and Petroleum Specialities.
A technology – driven and customer – focused vendor to some of the most brand-enhancing power companies in India and abroad, Apar has strengthened the business of its customers through proactive product development, timely product delivery and superior product attributes by reinforcing product innovation, cost leadership and premium quality and living its vision ‘Tomorrow’s Progress Today’ resulting in Reliability, Respect, Reputation and Repeat business across manufacture of Speciality Oils and Power Conductors.
Apar Industries Ltd. headquartered in Mumbai, India with production facilities spread across Rabale (Maharashtra), Silvassa (Union Territory of Dadra Nahar Haveli) and Nalagarth (Himachal Pradesh).
Apar’s Conductor Division started in 1958 with the technical know–how from Alcan (Canada) and Properzi (Italy) is the largest producers of POWERLINE Aluminium and Alloy Conductors, in Asia, with strategic partnership and supply relationships with the top EPC Contractors in the World. The aluminium conductor division manufactures all types of bare overhead aluminium conductors and GS earth wires.
Apar’s Speciality Oil business established in 1969 with the technical know-how from Sun Oil Company (USA) is a pioneer and largest producers of POWEROIL Transformer Oils in Southeast Asia. The division has five diversified product lines – Transformer Oils, White Oils & Liquid Paraffins, Industrial & Automotive Oils and lubricants, Rubber Process Oils and Ink Oils.
In the year 2007-08 Apar established a strong foundation for Automotive Lubricants under a license agreement with ENI of Italy to manufacture and market high-end automotive and speciality industrial lubricants under the AGIP brand in India.
Recently, Apar acquired a strategic stake in Uniflex Cables Ltd. a manufacturer of wide range of power and telecom cables, listed on BSE.
Over the last few years, Apar graduated to the hub-and-spoke model setting up storage distribution and processing facilities in Sydney (Australia), Gebze (Turkey) and Durban (South Africa), significantly improving our proximity to consuming global markets.
All of Apar's manufacturing facilities are accredited with ISO 9001 - 2000 & ISO 14001 - 2004 Quality Management Systems.
Apar Industries Ltd., a dynamic proxy of the Indian power sector’s growing potential deriving around 75 % of its revenues from this industry through key building blocks, aims to graduate from being a participant in India’s infrastructure growth to an infrastructure driver in the world’s second fastest growing economy.
Aluminium Conductors
Located at Silvassa ( D.N.H ) and Nalagarh ( Himachal Pradesh ), APAR is the second largest producer of Aluminium Conductors in India with 23 % market share and among the top five in the world. Leadership reflected in capacity expansion of aluminum conductors including alloy rods from 54,820 TPA in 2004-05 to 82,840 TPA in 2007 – 08 to emerge as the world’s fifth largest in this line of business.
APAR’s competence is derived from five decades of experience and insight into the product industry, manifested in an ability to presage product developments, evolution of customer needs, insights into technologies, global shift in supply, consumption of customer growth plans, forming a significant body of intellectual capital and a formidable competitive barrier.
Aluminium alloy rod and conductors were developed first in India by Apar through its own R&D initiatives. Factors that enabled Apar to emerge as the lowest – cost producer of aluminium conductors in the world include increase in the installed capacity, strategic location of manufacturing facilities in favorable geographies, tax jurisdictions, backward integration and increased productivity. Apar’s backward integration enables it to make complete range of aluminium conductors by altering chemical properties at the alloying stage and tailoring products to match customer needs.
Apar manufactures a full range of POWERLINE brand:
• EC Grade Aluminum Wire Rods,• Aluminum Alloy Wire Rods (6201 Alloy Rod in T-4 & M temper - online solutionied)• AAC (All Aluminium Conductors), • ACSR (Aluminium Conductor Steel Reinforced), • ACSR/AW (Aluminium Conductor Aluminium Clad Steel Reinforced), • AACSR (Aluminium Alloy Conductor Steel Reinforced), • AACSR/AW (Aluminium Alloy Conductor Clad Steel Reinforced)• AAAC (All Aluminium Alloy Conductors), • High Temperature Low Sag (HTLS) TACSR Conductors,• High Conductivity Alloy conductors AL-59 etc.• ACAR (Aluminium Conductor Alloy Reinforced)• Guy Wire / Stay Wire / Galvanized Steel Earth Wire (GSW)• Mechanical Grade Alloy Wire Bundles (T – 81 temper)
Over the years Apar has strengthened its product mix through a shift from AAC and ACSR to value added alloy based conductors. These high temperature conductors are capable of carrying up to 50 % additional power load compared with the other varieties which can substitute creation of parallel transmission lines in land- starved pockets, saving sizable capital investments.
Being the largest exporter of aluminium conductors from India, Apar has earned superior brand recognition and approval status among customers and utilities in India and other developing economies. It is recognized as a registered export house by the Indian Ministry of Commerce, exporting directly to power utilities in Asia, Africa, Europe, the Middle East and the US, along with reputed international turnkey contractors.
Apar enjoys the reputation of being a reliable long-term supplier in a market marked by fluctuating raw material availability and cost spikes. It supplies to all the top 25 turnkey operators in the world and also to all the leading utilities in Asia and Africa.
Admitted as a member of the standardizing committee formed by the Bureau of Indian Standards, Government of India for preparing National Standards ( ISI ) for the transmission & distribution conductors up to 800 KVA and the standardizing committee formed by the Rural Electrification Company Ltd., Government of India. Nominated twice ( consecutively ) to represent India as a national delegate in the Technical Committee of IEC in New Delhi and Kyoto.Conducted independent type tests successfully at internationally approved testing laboratories in NETFA -South Africa, CESI - Italy, EDF - France, ERDA - Vadodara, India, NSIC - Kolkatta, India, CPRI -Bangaluru, India and Tag Corporation - Chennai, India for conductors of 500 kV HVDC & 800 kV AC transmission system and also for distribution conductors of Metropolitan Electricity Authority, Bangkok.
I have written that SRF Ltd is a multibagger in making.I have read somewhere that one of the stock market gr has come out with a buy report on SRF Ltd.
- I have no doubt in my mind that SRF Ltd is a multibagger in making along with some other calls like Lumax Ind,Kalyani Forge,Tin Plate which I have mentioned here , not to mention TRF which I wrote here that it is a buy even at Rs 337 and it is XB now and the price is Rs 450.Hence even if someone sells now the original holding he still remains in profit and still have Bonus FREE...
Well, I am today here for writing on Apar Ind.I have mentioned this stock many times here as a BUY.I do not know anyone was convinced about this co and gohead and bought it.When I started recomending it here it was around 70.It has already doubled.
I know many readers just waits for more I write on certain stocks and only then they will buy.But that is not possible for me ,to write in detail on every stock.
Here is some snap shot of Apar Ind.
Read on:
Apar Industries Limited, founded by Late Mr. Dharmsinh D. Desai in the year 1958 is one among the best established companies in India operating in the diverse fields of electrical, metallurgical and chemical engineering. Over the ensuing years it has evolved to be a 500 million US Dollar diversified company offering value added products and services in Power Transmission Conductors and Petroleum Specialities.
A technology – driven and customer – focused vendor to some of the most brand-enhancing power companies in India and abroad, Apar has strengthened the business of its customers through proactive product development, timely product delivery and superior product attributes by reinforcing product innovation, cost leadership and premium quality and living its vision ‘Tomorrow’s Progress Today’ resulting in Reliability, Respect, Reputation and Repeat business across manufacture of Speciality Oils and Power Conductors.
Apar Industries Ltd. headquartered in Mumbai, India with production facilities spread across Rabale (Maharashtra), Silvassa (Union Territory of Dadra Nahar Haveli) and Nalagarth (Himachal Pradesh).
Apar’s Conductor Division started in 1958 with the technical know–how from Alcan (Canada) and Properzi (Italy) is the largest producers of POWERLINE Aluminium and Alloy Conductors, in Asia, with strategic partnership and supply relationships with the top EPC Contractors in the World. The aluminium conductor division manufactures all types of bare overhead aluminium conductors and GS earth wires.
Apar’s Speciality Oil business established in 1969 with the technical know-how from Sun Oil Company (USA) is a pioneer and largest producers of POWEROIL Transformer Oils in Southeast Asia. The division has five diversified product lines – Transformer Oils, White Oils & Liquid Paraffins, Industrial & Automotive Oils and lubricants, Rubber Process Oils and Ink Oils.
In the year 2007-08 Apar established a strong foundation for Automotive Lubricants under a license agreement with ENI of Italy to manufacture and market high-end automotive and speciality industrial lubricants under the AGIP brand in India.
Recently, Apar acquired a strategic stake in Uniflex Cables Ltd. a manufacturer of wide range of power and telecom cables, listed on BSE.
Over the last few years, Apar graduated to the hub-and-spoke model setting up storage distribution and processing facilities in Sydney (Australia), Gebze (Turkey) and Durban (South Africa), significantly improving our proximity to consuming global markets.
All of Apar's manufacturing facilities are accredited with ISO 9001 - 2000 & ISO 14001 - 2004 Quality Management Systems.
Apar Industries Ltd., a dynamic proxy of the Indian power sector’s growing potential deriving around 75 % of its revenues from this industry through key building blocks, aims to graduate from being a participant in India’s infrastructure growth to an infrastructure driver in the world’s second fastest growing economy.
Aluminium Conductors
Located at Silvassa ( D.N.H ) and Nalagarh ( Himachal Pradesh ), APAR is the second largest producer of Aluminium Conductors in India with 23 % market share and among the top five in the world. Leadership reflected in capacity expansion of aluminum conductors including alloy rods from 54,820 TPA in 2004-05 to 82,840 TPA in 2007 – 08 to emerge as the world’s fifth largest in this line of business.
APAR’s competence is derived from five decades of experience and insight into the product industry, manifested in an ability to presage product developments, evolution of customer needs, insights into technologies, global shift in supply, consumption of customer growth plans, forming a significant body of intellectual capital and a formidable competitive barrier.
Aluminium alloy rod and conductors were developed first in India by Apar through its own R&D initiatives. Factors that enabled Apar to emerge as the lowest – cost producer of aluminium conductors in the world include increase in the installed capacity, strategic location of manufacturing facilities in favorable geographies, tax jurisdictions, backward integration and increased productivity. Apar’s backward integration enables it to make complete range of aluminium conductors by altering chemical properties at the alloying stage and tailoring products to match customer needs.
Apar manufactures a full range of POWERLINE brand:
• EC Grade Aluminum Wire Rods,• Aluminum Alloy Wire Rods (6201 Alloy Rod in T-4 & M temper - online solutionied)• AAC (All Aluminium Conductors), • ACSR (Aluminium Conductor Steel Reinforced), • ACSR/AW (Aluminium Conductor Aluminium Clad Steel Reinforced), • AACSR (Aluminium Alloy Conductor Steel Reinforced), • AACSR/AW (Aluminium Alloy Conductor Clad Steel Reinforced)• AAAC (All Aluminium Alloy Conductors), • High Temperature Low Sag (HTLS) TACSR Conductors,• High Conductivity Alloy conductors AL-59 etc.• ACAR (Aluminium Conductor Alloy Reinforced)• Guy Wire / Stay Wire / Galvanized Steel Earth Wire (GSW)• Mechanical Grade Alloy Wire Bundles (T – 81 temper)
Over the years Apar has strengthened its product mix through a shift from AAC and ACSR to value added alloy based conductors. These high temperature conductors are capable of carrying up to 50 % additional power load compared with the other varieties which can substitute creation of parallel transmission lines in land- starved pockets, saving sizable capital investments.
Being the largest exporter of aluminium conductors from India, Apar has earned superior brand recognition and approval status among customers and utilities in India and other developing economies. It is recognized as a registered export house by the Indian Ministry of Commerce, exporting directly to power utilities in Asia, Africa, Europe, the Middle East and the US, along with reputed international turnkey contractors.
Apar enjoys the reputation of being a reliable long-term supplier in a market marked by fluctuating raw material availability and cost spikes. It supplies to all the top 25 turnkey operators in the world and also to all the leading utilities in Asia and Africa.
Admitted as a member of the standardizing committee formed by the Bureau of Indian Standards, Government of India for preparing National Standards ( ISI ) for the transmission & distribution conductors up to 800 KVA and the standardizing committee formed by the Rural Electrification Company Ltd., Government of India. Nominated twice ( consecutively ) to represent India as a national delegate in the Technical Committee of IEC in New Delhi and Kyoto.Conducted independent type tests successfully at internationally approved testing laboratories in NETFA -South Africa, CESI - Italy, EDF - France, ERDA - Vadodara, India, NSIC - Kolkatta, India, CPRI -Bangaluru, India and Tag Corporation - Chennai, India for conductors of 500 kV HVDC & 800 kV AC transmission system and also for distribution conductors of Metropolitan Electricity Authority, Bangkok.
My Comments:
Apar Ind has a turnover of Rs 2500 cr ,means $500 millions.The Mcap of Apar Ind is 450 cr and hence we can say that a 2500 cr co is available at just 1/5 price. A co which is a dominant player in Speciality Oils, Transformers, Cables,Aluminium Conductors is going abegging.One can buy this company doling out Rs.450 cr and he becomes the owner of 2500 cr turnover co.....Isn't that is great buy....?
It is definately a great buy even at this level as almost 64% of the stake is held by promoters and 27% is held by private corporate bodies.Means total 91% stake is with promoters and big institution.So what is left with Public?Only 9%......and I think I have not to write what one needs to do now with Apar Ind.It is a Screaming BUY.........Promoters has increased the stake in last few qr.
The June qr results has come fentestic with an qr eps of 7....
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