Sunday, December 23, 2007

Fibonacci Numbers......? ............Are they dependable.....!

This is another bad NEWS for those who are LOVERS of Fibo Numbers!As I have written many times it is again proved that this Technical Analysis is not even 50% good!Actually I put it at just 10%.....good....
I read an article at Business Standard in Monday Edition of Smart Investors, year and a half back,in which I read this article regarding Fibonacci Nos.
It is worth a look as it will make clear all doubts and will enlighten you all whether to follow this theory or not.
Here it is:

"Fibonacci numbers

Fibonacci sequences, where each number equals the sum of the two that precede it (for example 1,1,2,3,5,8...) are much beloved by technical market analysts. Such sequences have proved to have many applications since the 12th century Italian mathematician Fibonacci first used them while studying the breeding of rabbits. Beyond the stock and currency markets, they are held to occur frequently in nature, architecture and aesthetics, and even in US baseball results.

The belief that markets move in waves or "retrenchments", which typically factor in some way the Fibonacci "golden ratio" of 0.618, has been around for roughly a century. put simply, wl1en a market hits a peak,it will then "retrench" until it has reached some "resistance level". When it recovers, it might meet a, similar point of resistance on the way up.
Applyjng Fibonacci, "resistance" might come when the market has suffered a fall equal to 0.618 times its previous fall, for example. Nobody has ever explained why this should, be the case, but many people obviously believe it. This column's recent e-mail correspondence from brokerage houses and banks includes references to "Fibonacci support levels," "Fibonacci retracement objectives", "Fibonacci resistance" and "Fibonacci targets".
Sadly, a recent research paper from the City University's Cass Business School in ' London shows that all of this research is a complete waste of time. Looking at the peaks and the troughs in the Dow Jones ,Industrial Average from January 1915 to June 2003, City University's researchers found that the number of times the ratios between those peaks and troughs was anywhere close to a Fibonacci ratio was actually less than would have been predicted if the pattern were random.
The case that Fibonacci sequences do not, after all, have any relevance to the stock market appears to be overwhelming. Rationally, everyone participating in the market should now shelve their attempts to apply such magic numbers. But people are not rational. We all instead look for arbitrary ways in which to anchor our decisions. As the City researchers say: "It is' simply human nature for: traders to take the technical support and resistance levels as starting points for thinking about price targets, regardless of their logic". So maybe, a trading strategy based on exploiting others' mistaken belief in Fibonacci magic numbers could make money. "

My view:

Here we can see how this Fibonacci Numbers is shown of no use.I have never believed in this nos game,be it Fibonacci Numbers, or Elliot nos,or Neo Waves nos, or anything.JOHN AUTHERS has systametically anihilated this Fibo puzzle and made it redundent according to me.As one can see that chartist depends more on this numbers,these whole mathematics has been demistified and is shown that it has no legs...becaused Fibo nos are not dependable then the whole chart theory goes haywire..I ahve never believed in charts...Mine calls will always be on fundamentals.But the Masters of chartist says that first charts makes a pattern and then price follows it..means if the price is going to fall then,surely it will come on Chart and some bad news will come and price will fall...
I leave this decision on readers what to believe!

Almost all chartist and TA use this FIBO nos and that is a big big blow to them.I do not understand this charts reading...I have seen almost all STOP LOSS are eaten and as soon as the SL is eaten, the stock takes U turn from there just to frustarate you why you put a SL for that perticular stock?
There are so many complication....some times I feel , Doctors must also not be having so much complication while doing a biggger operation, while this chartist show us....
Like,many leg then second leg, then 3rd leg,and in that 1 st wave, 2nd wave, then 3rd wave....and that also of Bull wave, bearwave, then comes Support levels,then breakout levels,then come Morning Star, Evening star, morning star for Mandi,evening star for Teji,then comes Doji, then inverted Head and shoulder....Oh....has one to read and learn so much,..seems it is harder then even taking on examination of IIT or IIM...
Friends,and the anamoly is that after all these , if we sit 4-5 chartist in a different ROOM and ask to do work on same field, they will all have different views...
I have written more then enough though can write more on this....
I rest my pen here...!

1 comment:

  1. Hello Rajeev,

    I enjoyed reading ur post. I knew very much how much you hate TA. I agree with you only for 90% and I disagree with you on your view for 10%.

    I think the TA theory of stockmaket needs to be updated. When they invented this theory i believe they havent taken into account somany factors that are playing a crusial role today.Thats the reason its failing today. I completely agree with you that selection has to be made based on Fundamentals but at the same time we cannot completely scrap the TA. Its just like astrology. Take 10 best pundits and put them in a room and see if they come out with same results. Just becos they comeup with contradictory vies we cannot say the theory itself is wrong. Also, now a days ppl are just learning some kind of junk here and there in the internet and posing themselves to be some TA's. What they really lack is experience and not science.

    The above said is just my personal view.