Monday, April 14, 2008

Some Facts

IIP hints slowdown fears exaggerated
The momentum of industrial production is maintained at a handsome level. In February 2008, the industrial index registered a growth of 8.6%; though less than the rate of 11% during the same month of 2007, the performance is laudable.
At close to 9%, even the average rate of growth in the industrial sector during the first eleven months paints a more or less reassuring picture.
Though during the preceding year, the incremental growth was higher for the same month and for the same period, the trend indicates that for 2007-08, fears of a serious slowdown are misplaced and the fiscal may end on a satisfactory note.
As many as 16 of the 17 industry groups at the two-digit classification, 10 have registered a respectable rate of increase and for another six, the growth was in the positive territory.
Further, demand for investment goods is keen, reflecting that industries are busy creating or augmenting assets.
In February 2008, the upswing in capital goods output was to the tune of 10.4% and for the April-February period, the rise was of the order of 17.5%.
According to official data, there was a marginal improvement in the growth rate of mining segment at 5.1% during the first eleven months of last year.
In electricity, the let-up was slight at 6.6%. But the heavyweight- manufacturing - continues to fare well.
Though the tempo of manufacturing has slackened from 12.2% to 9.1%, in a fundamental sense, the showing is good in the case of this sector.
The use-based classification indicates that both the basic goods industry and the capital goods segment are sustaining a healthy level of output.
Some fine tuning of output in the light of demand conditions is natural and one should not read too much in the deceleration noted in both these industries in 2007-08.In respect of intermediate goods, the growth rate of 9.2% is commendable, although it is lower than the preceding year’s 11.7%.
The serious setback in February 2008 can be viewed as a blip rather than a sign of any serious bottleneck in this segment.
Even in the case of consumer goods, the more important non-durable segment is in a fine fettle; at 11.0%, the growth rate in February 2008 was higher than what it was a year ago and for the period, April-February period, the performance is good.
The consumer durables is in the doldrums, though the output in the latest month is a shade better than 12 months ago.
The industrial production scenario in the last fiscal year, based on the available trends, indicates that, while a distinct deceleration is on the cards for the broad industrial groups in relation to 2006-07, the rate of increase would be high enough to be described as very satisfactory in that it would be largely in conformity with the Plan targets.
My Comments:
What if IIP do not slow down?Going by one quanter do not makes a Slow down.....and hence let us see 2-3 qrs down the line....but I am afraid what will happen,to SS and party, if IIP figures keeps coming good in next 2-3 months....

Moreover , I am seeing that Dow is again up , which again vindiactes my view that it was only a reaction of bad GE figures....as the figures shows that March Retail Sales are higher and that is a good sign....and hence we may see Dow closing green today....

2)FIIs more bullish than promoters on Indian stocks
MUMBAI: It is the 'heavy selling' by FIIs being blamed squarely for meltdown at Dalal Street, but if their market activity patterns are to be believed, overseas investors seem to be over three times more confident than India Inc itself regarding the mark et's future growth. According to an analysis of the changes in the listed companies' shareholding patterns since the beginning of this year, the number of companies where foreign institutional investors have raised their holding is bigger than that of th ose where FII holdings have gone down.
In contrast, the promoters have cut down their holdings in more number of companies as compared to those where they have raised their stakes during the same period. The data shows that among all the firms having disclosed their latest shareholding patter n as on end of January-March quarter, at least one in three firms have seen an increase in its FII holding.
In comparison, only about one in nine has seen its promoters raising their shareholding in the company. However, indicating a relatively less bullish stand on large-cap companies, the overseas investors have mostly cut down their exposure to the firms wi th high market values while accumulating more shares in those with lesser valuations.
So far, close to 900 companies have released their shareholding patterns as on March 31, 2008. Out of these, the FIIs have raised their shareholding in as many as 320 companies, ( this is important)while promoter holding has increased in just 117 companies from the levels as on the end of 2007.
Those companies where FIIs have cut down their holdings, include HDFC, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, IVRCL Infra, Spice Communications, United Phosphorus, Dr Reddy's Labs, DCB, Axis Bank, Tata Motors, HCL Infosystems and J&K Bank. - PTI

My Comments:
I again say that there is nothing to do with what Dows do....we have already decoupled it...as we can see that when Dow moves down our market moves down but when Dow moves up our market do not move up....and that is decoupling.....means the fault is in our market.Our market is not looking at International clues.....if it was there ,then with Asian market moving up our market must have imbibed that movement but that is not happening.....
Now the above article also says that FIIs have raised their shareholding in as many as 320 companies in Mar quater....and that is the confidence FII's are showing if one goes by the FII's increasing stake in the Indian companies....
I hope those who follows FII's figures would get some clue from this....

All said and done I think this will throw some light how Indian Market will behave and what one should do......according to me....It is Cherry picking time..... Buy....everything avaibale on SALE..........One for One Free.....

6 comments:

  1. Dear rajeev,
    thnaks,
    worth reading views. u have a good point. If we see FII fig. they sold 17000cr. jan itself now from feb to till date the have bot aprox 6000cr. means they start buying slowly.


    Ahmed

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ahmed,
    What have you to say about this?

    Read on:
    At Rs 3.1 lakh cr, direct tax set to surpass revised target too



    Our Bureau NEW DELHI




    THE surge in direct tax collections is sure to give comfort to finance minister P Chidambaram. The government’s 2007-08 direct tax collections are set to cross the revised target of Rs 3,05,000 crore to touch Rs 3,10,000 crore, registering a buoyant growth of over 40%. Riding on the back of buoyancy, both in corporate and personal income tax, the government had revised the direct tax collection target from Rs 2,67,490 crore to Rs 3,05,000 crore. A government official said the direct tax collections had exceeded the revised estimates and the final figure could well be over Rs 3,10,000 crore. The final data will be available only by the month-end since the data gets collated at controller-general of accounts.
    The additional revenue will not only help in the government in meeting its additional expenditure of over Rs 40,000 crore in 2007-08, but also in meeting the revenue and fiscal deficit targets. On the indirect tax front, the government may just manage to meet the revised target. On the customs front, it is all set to exceed the higher revised estimate of Rs 1,00,766 crore.
    The budget estimate for customs collections was Rs 98,770 crore. In the case of excise where the estimate was revised downwards from Rs 1,30,220 crore to Rs 1,27,947 crore, the situation doesn’t look very bright. On service tax front, the government is expected to meet the revised service tax target of Rs 50,603 crore.
    The buoyancy in government’s direct tax collections has been all encompassing. Even the share of tax deducted at source has increased to 35% from 28% in the last fiscal. But, this is more so because of the emphasis given by the income tax department on TDS.

    ReplyDelete
  3. dear rajeev,
    it seems this time expected tax collections are huge. so how it link with equity market?

    Ahmed

    ReplyDelete
  4. dear Ahmed,
    Tax collection increase shows that people has earned more.....industry has earned.....and hence Tax collection is more...when Tax collection is more by government what does it mean....more revenue means more room for government to play with the reforms.
    It also says that Corporate is earning more and hence paying more tax and hence it means Indian Growth is in track....otherwise Tax must have decreased....Simple man....

    ReplyDelete
  5. thanks Rajeev bhai,
    Actually i am very new to market, so it is good experience to learn from you over here and that too without giving any fees :) .
    I want to learn future market as i don't know ABCD of future market. yesturday i read that orchid are at price 280 in future and in cash it was 320 so people are buying in future and selling in cash and getting huge profit margin within minute.
    can u help me in this regard? how to learn future market?
    Thnaks in advance :).

    Ahmed

    ReplyDelete
  6. Ahmed,
    Though I know how futures& Options market moves,I do not play in it and do not discuss on it.
    If you wants to read something on it, try to read all my past post from Dec 17th 2007.You will get somewhere.
    Well, I am not here to teach anyone.It sometimes happens that my answer becomes a good learn.But I am not here to teach anybody.
    It is time consuming and can't done here.

    ReplyDelete