How things are coming up......a view......

Hello Friends,
I am again writing some reasons for my bullish view.I know many are skeptic about and they are very bearish like Shankar Sharma…of First Global..
I know I have been proved wrong since many months in predicting the market and hence readers has to take this view as per his own thinking.....
Let us start now:

1) First and foremost fundamentals thing one should keep in mind is that,Bullmarket or bull rally is only possible if there is money coming in and hence it is natural that if money goes out from the market there is a gloom in the market.
2) Another thing to keep in mind is , market everywhere is driven on sentiments.If sentiments are not good then market will come down no matter how great the fundamentals are of any given company.
3) Now coming back on talk on our market, since last Mid Jan 08 FII’s has sold around Rs 35,000 cr worth of papers in our market. That is almost about $9 bn ….in last 6 months or so….Now we have to see why they have sold these much of papers…Looking back, it is very very clear that FII’s had to sell on compulsion instead otherwise like Booking Profit or Indian economy becoming unattractive.
4) To my best of knowledge this is the biggest ever selling ever taken place in our Indian market since our PM ,ManMohan Singh, who was the FM then in 1991…opened the door of liberisation…..History will have to take note of Mr.Manmohan Singh who made all these possible…and we are reaping the fruits of his foresighted decisions….
5) Well, the main culminator was Crude ….the prices went on high and high and its effect were seen on our economy and world over . The inflation went on and on and we are at now double digit nos.
6) I have been writing since months that Crude Oil going up is speculation and nothing else. People said the demand has increased…and that none other but from America it came that developing countries are consuming more crude .They said that emerging market economies is using more Oil and hence the crude is up. But I have also written here that the demand is increased by just 1% over last year then why crude has almost double? But none was ready to hear that and still not ready to hear it. They say that demand had increased and supply has been poor. Oil wells world over has now limited crude to feed the world for next over few decades. That is why Crude is going up.
7) I ask all of them a question….Why Crude tanks when USA government says that their Oil inventory has increased and Crude goes up when they say, Oil inventories has decreased? Now that is a hell of a question….can anyone answer that? What has it to do with Crude price? Why crude tanks and goes up on US inventory NEWS…Is USA inventory makes so big difference that crude moves on it news? and if the answer is yes , which is seen,then it becomes obvious that the prices of CRUDE is in hand of USA to decide.....
8) One more reason why I think USA is the only player for this crude rise. If we sit for a while and think that why Prez Bush should attack Iraq and spends over $600 billions of dollars in the WAR? Did he take this step to take the crude prices to $147 level and bring the US economy at the brink of collapsing…?I think one should find the answer in the above question….
9) Moreover the Subprime issue came out suddenly and the loss became huge and huge. They are/were in trillions of dollars….The decades old Bear Stern made a huge loss and Merill Lynch and Citi gr are still licking the wounds.Not to talk about Lehman Brs,UBS,CLSA etc….Indymac has to be ultimately takenover by Fed…..These losses had to be compensated somewhere.The whole money went in Commodities market and we can see the end results….Well, I know many have arguments for these. But Crude and Metals were more a speculations and not according to demand supply ratio. This can be seen that many Metals has been down since last couple of months and now Crude is also coming down.If the demand was high and supply poor then how Crude is coming down so fast?It was today $121…down from $147 few days back….it touched today 3 months low…today…wow!
10) I would like to refer my friends view here who is a great friend of mine and who has also started his recent own blog. His name is Jigs(mmb name)…..He says when Warren Buffet bought $2 bn worth shares of Dow Chemicals , we tried to find out what should be the reason for that. Dow use to buy Oil for its product means Oil is Dow’s raw material and if Buffet is buying then it means that he sees that it is high time Oil should come down and as per his followup, the day Buffet bought Dow Chem, Oil is retracing….Now this is how the things are to be seen. Mere reading his(WB) books takes nowhere….One should be able to get the clue from who is doing what..! Just like what Mark Sellers wrote in his lecture..
11) I am still unable to understand how people thinks that Oil is not a speculation…which gave over 40%v return in last 6 months?Any stocks which gives so much return so fast is given the name of speculation then why not crude and commodities….and that too when trillions of money is at stake in whole commodities market,,,,
12) Well coming back to our market..after looking at the above parameters, it seems obvious that our market tanked more on FII selling then on fundamentals reasons and we can add the planned attack from Bears with borrowed shares worth $7 bn ….Otherwise there is no reason market could come down constantly with out any pull back rally.Like Bulls have over done the rally upto 21k, Bears have equally or say even more overdone in selling the shares rock stock and barrel…..They thought the same way , a lay investors think..that crude will keep on going up and up to $170 and then to $200 ….and hence they lost the reasoning sense…..that happens when one proves correct in his call. If some smart players with high degree of experience and qualification can loose their vision then what to tell about small investors or any one here….Crude is coming down and the main reason for the Bears to break the market is diminishing very fast.That is why the CEO of First Global,Devina Mehra( if I can recall, she is Shankar Sharma’s wife)spoke couple of days back at CNBC that for 6 months Indian market can outperform the global market…..Why the Bear become Bulls?When they saw that crude is tanking and now they are out from the scene….?I rewrite that I have already written that next 6 months can be great for our markets....much earlier..
13) Now as I have written here in past , we have to see how Bears buys the shares from the market which they short sold which is worth $7 bn….as things are changing fast with Crude tanking , they have to give them back to the lender…what repercussions are seen when they come out to buy those shares and hence they become BULLS from BEARS on COMPULSION….I hope readers gets me what I mean to say….
14) I have written , things can change dramatically.If crude comes down and hence inflation, the slow down in world over will be arrested.And as Market use to sense this upcoming things and starts discounting it as it discounted the negative news well in advance….since Jan 08…then we can see a big turn around from hereon….


Last, some of my picks are going great guns.e.g I gave a recommendation to someone in comments that Mellinuim Beers is a buy along with United Beers.Millinium Beers was up by 27% in last 3 days…there are many that has moved fast….Just track them…

Rajeev