I came to know that RJ was going to speak in a seminar at Hydrabad on 22nd Aug.I asked some of my friends who lives in Hydrabad if they can attend the meet I would like to read the excerpts.
One of my friend attended the meet .I am pasting Ditto the copy here and would like to have more info if anything then this....
The Seminar was titled "Sensational Sensex - Retrospect & Prospect"
The Room was packed and pindrop silence ensued while his speech was on. Some interesting insights from RJ followed.
He gave a Powerpoint Presenation on GDP, India's Potential, Savings rate etc..and a lot of comparison & similarities between markets and wine/women.
RJ - Personal FACTS
1) I love Hyderabad and its Biryani. If my wife agrees, I wish to settle down in Hyderabad.
2) RJ said that his father expired 3-4 weeks ago, so the tonsured head. His father never asked him about his wealth, the only thing he always asked was about his charity.
3) RJ does a lot of charity and contributes to educational NGOs, but said he doesn't want to share or disclose it in the public.
4) His MOM always asks him to buy a flat or land, but RJ said he is 100% invested into equity.
Synopsis of the seminar
1) Worst Times are the BEST Times to buy.
2) Every Crisis presents an OPPOrtunity
3) At 21 PE and with no scam, this market looks ripe for a BOom...when he cannot SAY. ( No Scam , ripe to Boom....I am saying this since long)
4) The only thing India has and what Russia and China do not have is DEMOCRACY. He gave the examle of Yukos oil Company in Russia which was taken back by their Govt from the promoter.
5) RJ -"I LOVE WHISKY and WOMEN"
6) I am bearish on US markets and for them to SURVIVE, they have no CHOICE but to Invest in the EMERGING MARKETS .( Again I have written this many many times)
7) RJ - BULLISH ON OIL, GAS and IT. FERTILISER IS A BIG "NO" from RJ
RJ On OIL, GAS
1) India imports 72% of itys total consumption of oil.
2) Oil imports constitute 10% of GDP
3) GAS supply to DOUBLE from 104 mmscmd to 260 mmscmd.
4) New GAS finds could BRING savings of about $148 Billion by FY 2012. Here he quoted about Cairn finds and KG basin finds.
5) Gas could replace ~51 mmtpa (million metric tonnes per annum) which is ~ 35% of the OIL consumption of India by FY 2012
RJ - WHEN DO I SELL
When to sell a share depends upon one's need, the opportunity at hand and experience. I sell ONLY when...
a) I need money for major expense.
b) when I find there is a BIGGER opportunity somewhere else
c) when I feel that in future, a company I invested in, has no higher profit earnings potential or when the profits have peaked out.
POTENTIAL CATALYSTS for INDIA's GROWTH
1) Agriculture:
a) Large wastage needs to be prevented and logistic challenges (Crisis or opportunity)
b) An agricultural Revolution is not only IMPERATIVE, it is INEVITABLE.
c) Seed companies continue to do well
2) INFRASTRUCTURE
RJ on Warren Buffet & USA
1) WB gave a compouded yield of 23%.
2) Indians get scared if anything bad happens in USA. In my View, I wouldn't give that much importance to USA. Their inflation is higher than ours and they live in debt. Here he quotes
"I wouldn't believe if someone said S**T doesn't SMELL."
3) Last October (Oct '07) I had stressed very clearly the problems facing US Economy. I also told that markets are peaking out and one has to be very careful as correction was anticipated. I repeated the same thing after this year's BUDGET also that buying now is dangerous.
RJ On Corporate Governance/ Managment
1) Corp governace is ZERO/junk in China. In comparison, India is far better.
2) People did not invest in STERLITE saying this and that about mgmt but the share moved from Rs.40. Markets focus on RESULTS. ( Again same view, I also never put any emphasis on how is the management)
RJ ON Markets/ Individual Scrips
1) Please do not ask about Individual scrips. My lips are sealed and SEBI's guidelines apply.
2) This is the FIRST significant TIME-WISE and PRICE-WISE correction
3) Believes India's
a) economic growth to continue and
b) the vast underexposure to equity investments will correct over time.
4) Worried about rising Inflation, Housing and auto sector to bear the BRUNT.
5) RNRL and RIL Gas issue, if settled, could act as a Positive trigger but not so much as to start a big rally or a Boom again in the markets.
6) Markets perception is that the BOTTOM WILL BE MADE when the Election DATES are announced. Though I personally wouldn't concur with this opinion, if past experiences are taken into acount, THE FIRST YEAR WHEN A NEW GOVT COMES INTO POWER IS A GOLDEN ERA.
7) Markets before rising again might move in a narrow range for around 3-6 months forming a base.
8) Take your OWN decisions, Tips are Hazardous to your wealth.
9) Last October, (2007) I stressed very clearly the problems facing USA. I also told that markets are peaking out and one has to be very careful as correction was anticipated. I repeated the same thing after this year's BUDGET that buying shaes now was risky.
10) I will buy any share in any sector, but I always check if the future looks bright and I do not view it from 1 year returns and I don't give priority to it . I give PRIORITY to the FUTURE EARNINGS POTENTIAL of a company.
Some of RJ's quotations
1) Karch karna aasaan hi, kum karna muskil hi
2) Markets and Women are the same...both are volatile, unexpected and he has a FOUR letter word for them (no not what u think).....its LOVE.
3) Fall in love with your Wife, not with your Stocks
4) Respect the Markets and do MAKE mistakes, but see to it that you can afford to stay in the markets even after the mistake.
5) A friend from Dubai asked me Tax? Woh kya hota hi? I wish I could say the same thing to IT Dept in India....
My Comments:
I will only write that ,being in USA I was able to come to know that RJ was going to speak at Hydrabad and hence I have got this.Well,why don't someone came out and tell me this?This shows that you all are not agile and aware of what is going on .......
Now try to find your picks from these post....
Dear Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteWonderful to visit your blog and compliment you for the tremendous work that you are doing. I want to know your opinion about Enore coke and Bhagawati gas. I am holding 40,000 share sof bhagwati gas for the following reasons and would like to know ur take on this :
I have been bullish on the Industrial Gas sector for the last two years and specifically on bhagawati gas for several reasons.
1) Bhagawati Gas had only one working plant ( 50 Tons per day ) for the last two years as their 120Tons per day plant is getting shifted to cater to the demands of Sunflag Iron and Steel. However it
cudnt be done without setting up a new plant for Hindustan copper as demanded by them . Hence they set up a New 25 Tons per day plant which has been commissioned n Feb 2008. Thus very shortly even their 120 TPD plant wil get shifted.
2) Also Linde group ( prmoters of BOC ) announced on CNBC that they are investing 6000 crores in the Indian market in the next three years to shore up their business. Also they bought back their shares at Rs 200 ( raised from Rs 160). Just shows the bullishnes theyhave on the Industrial gas in india. Even Bhuruka gas has decided to delist their company and buy back all their shares.
3) Information recived from Reliance Money Advisory Service
Hi, Thanks for choosing Reliance Money Advisory Services. Bhagwati Gases: The company holds
sound fundamentals. Its net profit went up by 28% YOY and net sales went up by 24% YOY for Q3FY08. Bhagawati gas will have three operating plants within the next two years compared to only one right now. Also with their tremendous knowledge in the Gas sector they will also expand further and also get into newer areas of gas exploration as they did by signing a MOU with the russian co. We recommend you to hold the stock.
EVEN RELIANCE MONEY IS VERY BULLISH ON THE CO.
4) Article in Economic Times bangalore on 9th June 2008
"WANNABE STARS"
Thers a lot happening, away from the glamorous & glitzy world of high visibility sector. RAMKRISHNA KASHELKAR digs deep & unearths some uncut Diamonds.
They say more than a tonne of dirt needs to be shifted to find every single carat of diamond. The
same applies to the vast universe of small companies. Its a daunting proposition to sift through an
endless list of obscure industries in the hope of hitting on some gems.. No wonder most of the
analysts stick to companies in the more glamorous sectors such a IT, Pharmaceuticals,FMCG and Capital goods among others.
ETIG undertook this task long ago. this week we thought of researching a few more small and
obscure industries just to check on the action taking place there.We find that away from the
limelight,quite a few companies in these sectors are thriving and waiting for their time to come.
a) DYES & PIGMENTS
b) PESTICIDES
c) INDUSTRIAL GASES
A variety of Industrial Gases such as oxygen, carbon dioxide, argon and nitrogen are required in a
host of industries such as stell, fertilisers, glass , automobiles and healthcare. The Industrial Gases industry is slated for a strong growth over the next few years. thanks to a number of expansion projects in user industries. New capacities are planned in industries such as petrochemicals, steel , glass and food procesing, which augurs well for the industrial gas industry. Additionally Gas application in the Electronic sector has opened up new growth possibilities.
BOC India is the largest industrial gas manufacturer in India, which is curretly investing in building storage and transport infrastructure fot liquid and compressed gases. Gujrat Fluorochemicals is indias largest manufacturer of refrigerent gases. However a major chunk of the company's revenue come from sale of carbon credits. BHAGAWATI GASES which was so far totally dependent
on Hindustan Copper for selling Oxygen, has now relocated one of its plants to supply oxygen to a steel manufacturer in Maharashtra.
To wrap up things, there are interesting companies operating in highly niche ares, which are not too well-known in the market. Some of these industries have the tendency to fall out of fashion for long periods. However a keen researcher may stil hit upon a multi-bagger, if he acts in time."
5) One thing I can tell you is that when the share price reach Rs 100 or 150 a leading FII will
acquire stake. Keep the reading with you and return me when this happens. This is for your personal
confidence. This was stated to me by Chamatcar.com who had given a buy report Bhagawati Gas in the year 2005.
I have also spoken with the company secretary of bhagawati gas on several occassions and have received positive information from them. They have also stated that the management is very positive on their future prospects.
2007 - 2008 EPS was 1.41 and cash EPS was 3.03. Even a simple Maths calulation gives an EPS of 5.6 and cash EPS of 12 once all their three plants start functioning (50TPD + 120TPD + 25TPD). Plus the benefits of contract won from ONGC and possibilities of further such contracts and also the possibilities of hike in gas prices with growth in capacities of steel industries.
Thanking you and looking forward to your suggestion and views. BTW i am a long term holder and shall stay invested for minimum of three to five years in Bhagawati gas
Meetesh Kuhad Jain
Hi Meetesh,
ReplyDeleteI am tracking Bhagwati Gases and Ennore Coke since long.I have even written here to some one about both here saying that both are great picks but one needs patience as the story will unfold in 2-3 years and hence if someone wants to see the price rising instantly then he should not hold it.
Well, I think you have done the maths extremly well.You have so much of information, now what you need is the conviction.
I think you are on the right path while having 40k shares and I think it will do wonders to your portfolio in coming 2-3 years.The only thing is you need to be cool and calm and only read positive news on market and also of the company.
Inds Gas sector is going to be the big thing in next 2-3-4 years as aptly spoken by RJ in the meet at Hydrabad....
That is why in one of my penny stock picks I wrote, I have included Gagan Gas.
Ennore Coke is also looking extremly good and one can add in SIP manner or even at one go as is comfortable.
hi rajeev,
ReplyDeletethanks for ur reply.this article on RJ conference is great as it shows a great investers vision on equities. but RJ has not said anynothing on telecom sector .what
r ur views on telecom.i am asking u this cause a few days back in an insta poll in economic times they had asked Given Indias pc penetration, will net telephony really eat into revenues of telecom firms? and 56% people said yes .i would like to know what would ur answer be to this question.thanks
raima
Dear Rama,
ReplyDeleteRJ donot like Telecom sector.He has spoken that many times.
The reason he gives is the margin are small and many players are there.But we all know how Bharti Airtel, RCom etc has run....
I don't think internet telephony can eat revenue of telecom firms.If that would have happened then all USA Telecom co would have sunk by now.....
For internet telephony one needs to have a Computer.And then one also needs Virus scan and many more thing....that is too costly for individual.....
But Actually where I was surprised about RJ is ,he says he is bullish on IT......
Rajeevbhai, this was posted on many forums 3 days ago. I am not sure of the authentication of this article. Do you personally know the guy who posted the original posting, and did he actually type this in?
ReplyDeleteInformation on the internet is really hard to believe 'sometimes', esp. RJ's since I have already seens 2-3 fake advertising/presentations.
Please do not take this the wrong way, since I am only trying to confirm.
Thanks.
KKP
Dear Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteIt's been great reading your inputs on different picks... i want to know your opinion on IKF Technology.
Yeah Rajev , thats the key with Bhagawati Gas i guess ..patience !!! However what is ur opinion about the management. Actually i have just sent a compaint letter to bse as i was sceptical about them. The 120 TPD plant was supposed to have shifted to sunflag by 2007 march itself and it has not yet happened. Infact when i spoke to Ms Kaur, the co sec of bhag gas, she informed me that they are totally ready however sunflag has not yet given them the permission. This was very weird as the co has already wasted three years for this and th demand for oxygen is huge currently. one more worrying thing is the managing directors of both sunflag and bhag gas are Bhardwaj's. Can there be something fishy going on....like the plant is already shifted and working but not being disclosed by the management ????? Shall await ur views on this
ReplyDeleteDear Meetesh,
ReplyDeleteI had never gave much importance on how the management is.
I almost never look at the credibilty of management of any company I track.It makes no sense to me.Crompton and Greaves was quoting at below Rs 10 due to huge loss it was making in crores.I remember the loss use to come like 30 cr , 50 cr quater to quater...and see now where is Crompton and Greaves is....and that too 2 paid up...
I can give numerous examples like this.
The lethargy you are seeing in Bhagwati Gas management is the teething troubles and every upcoming companies use to go through all these and investor always has the apprehension that what will happen.
At an each and every stage investor will feel that management isn’t got upto the mark. But Meetesh this is bound to happen as it is a new company. Every new company which is trying to come up goes through all these. Even Infosys Techno has faced the same fate when things didn’t go as Mr Narayan Murthy spoke to the press or promised and I remember everyone were secpitc about the company , in early 90’s and mid/late 90’s which is going to be the bluest of the bluchip in future .But see today where it is!
I can tell you with confidence that I had never tried in my life and call a CS of any company.Why a CS of any company will tell what they plans and how much they are going to prosper or how much profit they are going to make?If we are an owner of a company will we let our CS to devulge any info of our company to any investor or any person?Maybe we discuss our future plan to someone like RJ or RD but not to a person who is holding just below 1% of the stake….few 100’s or few 1000’s.Instead of telling you(small investors) all about company future plan why he would not let his friends , relatives and others close to their circle not buy shares and let them earn?It is a simple question everyone should ask himself before asking to any Co CS and coming to any conclusion.
The thing I want to tell you here is you have got all the info. Now what you should do is to give time to let the company mature and that is not going to happen as you wish.Don’t jump on any conclusion from here and there.And at any point you feel that company is lacking , then you should sell the shares…..it is simple…be comfortable with what you do and that is the bottomline….and that goes for everyone.
I am sorry to write to you that you didn’t listen what I wrote you in previous post that now you need conviction and you need to remain cool and calm.But you went on digging.These will only lead you to more distress and ultimately one day you will sell all the shares of Bhagwati Gas and exact from there the real story will unfold and it will become a multibagger and you will tell all your friends and relatives that I was holding it but foolishly I sold…..
Hi Om,
ReplyDeleteYes I do track IKF Techno and I think it can be a multibagger.But the same thing comes here.One should be ready to loose everything invested in IKF Techno....either you loose all or you earn big returns....
Dear Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteWell ofcourse i understand that the co sec will not disclose all info. I was only worried about the ability of the management to be truthful to its investors. Just look at the ex of a ispat industry. when the whole steel industry was raking in profits this co was stil declaring losses. This was because the co presumably was just selling the steel in cash and not reflecting in its books. That prevented the share from going up but the promoter made a lot of dough. I would not want the same to happen with Bhagawati gas.
Coming to patience . I have lots of it being a true capricon. Even if the events do not match upto my expectations i am going to hold on to a majority of my shares in bhag gas over the next five years. Basically the money invested is just ou of my pocket money and i care a damn if it goes to zero and care a damn if it goes up by ten times. What matters is the thrill to have multiplied the money and got the investment right.
Thanks for your guidance though. Its been great. BTW i wonder ( if its not a problem ) if you could let me know how many shares u own of bhag gas or gagan gas for that matter ???
Hello Rajeev & Meetesh
ReplyDeleteDo you track
Confidence Petroleum Ltd.?If so could you please thro some light on this company.Thanks as always
Ravi
Celebrating ur weekend eh rajeev ??
ReplyDeleteHi ravi,
ReplyDeleteI do not track Confednece Petrolium but I think I have shares of it a decade or more old.It is a very very old company.Maybe I am holding a very small quantity like say..200-300 shares.
But I am not able to see any news anywhere.If you have any do write it.
Thanks...
Hi Meetesh,
ReplyDeleteIt depends upon how I get time.
Anyway, I do not hold Bhagwati Gas but yes I do hold Gagan Gas and Inducto Steel Ltd and I hold both in a very small quantity as usual like say 1k or 2k.
I buy everything I feel like buying as I do not like to be away from any future multibagger.
Inducto Steel , it amalgated itself with Haryana Gas ltd and one other co and that is why I bot it.
The managment of Inducto is same of Haryana Ship and they are no good but as I said I do not pay much attention to the credibility of management and hence I am holding....
Dear Rajeev,
ReplyDeletehmm...i used o folow the same strategy when i started investing but down the line i realised that even if i hit gold with two to three sripts out of my fifty i wud end up making a very negligible amount of profits. say if three out of 50 scripts i held went up frm 10 to say 70 i wud make 1.8 laks on the 30k investment.
However if i thourougly researched my 50 scripts and chose the five best scripts i would have a bigger chance of making a killing.
On that very strategy i chose bhagawati gas, gremach ( just recently added) and ennore coke. Ofcourse bhag gas is alomost 80% of my portfolio as i am most bullish on this script and sector for the coming five years. If bhag gas goes to my projected Rs 80 - 100 band in the next two years i would make a profit of a cool 30-40 lakhs.
Anyways with the action that i have taken by writing to bse i hope that the management will come out with the clarifications in their AGM scheduled in september. This shuld give fillip to the stock.
Anyways happy investing and i really hope u make a lot of money with ur strategy and pray that 40 out of ur 50 scripts ( if not all ) turn out to be multibaggers !!!