Tuesday, November 24, 2009


I have been discussing everything that has come to my way.Rama wrote me that he didn't want to hurt anyone while questioning here.I personally am not hurt at all and I think no one has taken the other way too.
Some may have written something , like blindly following me or takes my writing as nothing to doubt at.But that is also not a good situation.Never blindly follow what I write.I can and have gone wrong many times in past and hence there is no reason why I can't go wrong now.
The only thing I would like to write here, is picking stock is looking at the FUTURE and not at the present or past.
I compared Motherson Sumi with Rico Auto when I wrote about Rico Auto.Has anyone cared to go and look what is the earning of Motherson Sumi?Has anyone cared to look what is the eq of Motherson Sumi and compared it with Rico Auto?Has anyone tried to see what P/E Motherson Sumi is attracting?
I didn't see anyone writing on Motherson Sumi....and trying to compare it or whatever they observed between Rico Auto and Motherson Sumi.
Isn't that a sad part I am seeing from my readers?
I know there are many who use to look at all angle and try to analyse to the core then why there is none who came out with such comparision between Motherson Sumi and Rico Auto.Both are 1 paidup......both are in same sector, Auto Anciallary...then?

Anyway, I am today talking on some masters who use to come on CNBC and many follows them as well.
What I am going to write is just discussion and not trying to belittle anyone personally as I am very very small in front of them, acadamically as well in other parametres as well.I am no match in front of them but there are certain things which one is not able to understand and hence am trying to write it here.
If anyone to whom I am writing feels like giving any reply is always welcome to write here instead of trying to do something else.....We use to have a very open discussion without any pride and prejudice for anyone hence no one needs to feel the otherway.
Well, what I have observed recently is that after Ramesh Damani who use to first chat online ,live, at rediff.com and now at moneycontrol site, other too have started online chat where anyone can join and ask question to them.
Offlate,Mr Shankar Sharma of First Global and Ridham Desai ,MD,of Morgan Stanley has started this online chat.
Those who wants to read their transcript can go to monetcontrol site and read it and also take part askign question to them as well....

Pasting some of SS transcript here:

Q.ananda.sreeniva : u HAD DESCRIBED URSELF AS FEARFULL BULL EARLIER THIS YEAR, lOOKING AT YOUR PRESENT STATEMENT IT LOOKS LIKE U HAVE CHANGED THAT STANCE, WHAT IS IT NOW? fEARLESS BEAR OR A FEARFUL BEAR? In the recent fall we noticed a strong support coming @ 4550 levels, could tell us what would trigger Sensex so low as u have stated today? what time frame are you looking at for this sensex atrget?

A.Shankar Sharma : Bearish now. very clearly bearish.( He is bearish...giving no. 1)

Q.bse17000 : You just said sensex will go to 12500.When there is so much liquidity around and so many people who missed the rally ready to jump in even on a small correction.......doesnt a 20% correction sound bizarre and out of synch

A.Shankar Sharma : sure. doesnt look likely, right?it was the same in March 09...and look what happened...these kinds of consensus things have a strange way of coming apart.(bearish , giving no.2)

Q.alneshsomji : sir, just today u spoke of market not surpassing 16,700 and it turned out to be true as it drifted down ... would it b safe to assume we have entered the phase where it would be safe to short ?

A.Shankar Sharma : yes...quite safe now...market will probably rally about 200-400 points more but that should be it.(bearish..giving no.3)

Q.aahansaloni : Sir,You are simply great in your views.Iwould like to know your views on market for 1 to 2 tears prospective and any share you like for that time horizion.

A.Shankar Sharma : We will see, I dont like taking that far out a view. right now, th eview is negative.(bearish, giving no.4)

Q.srikanth820 : Sir,How do you look at the Infrastructure sector in near term?

A.Shankar Sharma : negative in infra for now.

Q.ckkhanna : WILL NIFTY BE ABLE TO HOLD 4500 BY END 2009

A.Shankar Sharma : that should hold, but over th enext 6 months we ll get lower.(bearish,giving no.5)

Q.sandeeparora9 : Dear Sharma you mentioned 12500 levels when do you think we will reach there?

A.Shankar Sharma : next 6 months approx.(bearish..giving no.6)

Q.thwisha : Dear Sir, whenever you state your bearish stance, the market bounces back with vengence and makes a new high. your comments on it please

A.Shankar Sharma : thats a coincidence!.( now who is going to tell Mr SS that this coincidence is happening since 2003! and when coincidence happen frequently then that is not called coincidence but getting wrong on judgement....but who will tell him that?)

Q.sadhawin : Hi, do you suggest to the retail investors like me to exit the market immediately? Or will it withstand for some more time?

A.Shankar Sharma : exit 70% of positions.(bearish..giving no.7)

Q.sonali9876 : what do u make of they HIGH VOLATILITY IN NIFTY over last week,,,r we in d middle of bounce

A.Shankar Sharma : we have bounced after the sharp fall...thats all there is to it.(bearish ,giving no.8)

Q.nextbullleader : Hi sir...Could u plz explain me why there is a feeling of doubt emerging regarding dollar could strengthen in short term even when rate of interest in US is near zero..because i believe in zero rate scenario supply of dollar would not come down??

A.Shankar Sharma : not everything inmarkets follows logic always!( that is what Mr SS needs to understand, that his logic of whatever reason he gives for market going down doesn't work and that he has seen from 2003.....who will tell him that...)

Q.shivdb : sir, i am thinking that mkt will not make high upto oct, 2010 but it can make low around 3200-3300 (nifty). and we should by there. what do say abut that.

A.Shankar Sharma : possible.(bearish..giving no.9)

Q.happy_doon : hi shankar, you feel markets will go beyond 5200 before they start their corretive mode. rgds

A.Shankar Sharma : probably not.(bearish..giving no.10)

My Commnets:
I have written some comments in bracket as welll in blue letter.
Mr Shankar Sharma ,of First Global, is very very bearish as whenever he was asked about market he says, sell 70%, market will go down, maximum we can see 5200 etc etc, I have written how many times he said he is bearish....10 times and even more in his chat......reading his chat transcript and listening him on CNBC , readers and investors needs to take clue what needs to be done......

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