Tuesday, November 3, 2009

India will need about 1,000 airplanes in next 20 yrs ..............

Dinesh Keskar, the President of Boeing India and Senior Vice President of Boeing International discusses the outlook for the aviation industry in India. He says, India will need about 1,000 airplanes of different types worth about USD 100 billion in the next 20 years.

This was the heading I read today on moneycontrol.com......
Now what can we infer from it?Well, I think it says that Air traffic will be more and people would be travelling more in Airplane then in Train.
Now when I look at this sector , the growth down the line, some 5 yrs ,10 yrs, then this sector should get good growth in future.
And the stocks that come to my mind are Airlines stocks like Spice Jet,King Fischer Airlines etc not to mention stocks like Air India, Jet Airways etc.....
Then I think the stock which deals in Service sector will come in play and hence stocks like Taneja Aeorospace,Kale Consultant,Avantel comes in play....
Keep a watch on these stocks as they have the capacity to give multibagger return in times to come.
Kale Consultant is giving constantly great results since last many qrs and look extremly good to me.So is Taneja which I have recomended couple of times back, maybe not in recent past but I have recomended here.
Coming to market, it has remained sluggish for last whole week and breaking all support ,ringing alram bells in the camp of bulls.But one thing analyst need to keep in mind is operators are much more smarter then others .They will break the support , like 4750 and will take the market below it so create panic like situation so that investor sells their fundamentally good stock , that can be lapped up by HNI's etc....
People and analyst(read chartist) are gungho saying that distribution has happened between 16k to 17k and that now we will not see 17k again so early.Let us see what happens and who get what.Technical analyst says that Midcap and samllcaps will be battered and butchered and hence one needs to avoid such stocks.But they forget that when one buys such Midcap/ Smallcap stocks the risk always remain there as they are growing and after due diligence one has taken stake there.
In stock market nothing is impossible and everything is possible.I would like to ask in OPEN, that whoever sees and understand charts, here , who is a regular visitor of my blog needs to come out and write that what they FEEL WILL BE THE SENSEX IN NEXT 6 MONTHS OR NEXT 12 MONTHS.I want targets.If the charts is foretelling that let them come out and write it down here.
See, when market goes down , these chartist always come out to speak about the technicals, that didn't we say that?Where they go when market was bullish, I will never be able to understand......Why they come out to poke their nose and not when they proved wrong.......Nelson's Eye or what?
According to what I am reading and getting mails , it seems and can be derived that , If distribution has happened at 16k to 17k then it means that all the stronger hands has sold off their holding and hence now they will wait for 13k or 11k to come to getin back in market.These people are not going to buy at 10% correction as that makes no sense buying so early.So that also means that we should not see 17k in 6 months or 12 months.
But the problem here with them is , they don't want to stick their neck out and say that.They just want to redicule others by giving some negative views which according to me holds no water.They are like astrologer wherein they always scars you and nothing more.
I again make appeal to any of my readers who is able to read charts should come out with the targets for sensex.......Chart reading is just like astrology.They always come in play after things has already happened.They never foretells anything.Maybe once or twice they get correct and they make that a point to argue but never tell how many times they went wrong.One will never find a single Astrologer who will confess that he went wrong 9 out of 10 times but will go on saying he proved correct once...and that they will speak from the Top Of The Roof....
I am sorry if I am hurting any specific community in stock market, but I sometimes can't resist writing this because they are doing no good to investors.At some point of times my blood also get boiled and I ends up writing something unusal.
I have been advised that I also do not like Mandi and hence I always remain bullish and so are my followers.They are my followers because I always talk bullish and they like this and that is why they follow me.I have never wrote anyone to blindly follow me at any piont of time nor have I forced to take decision on my call.
My main purpose here is to write stocks which is still undiscovered and put it in front of investors so that they can gain from it.My intention has never to misguide anyone here....and never will be so in my LIFE.....Buy or not to buy is in their hands........from what I recomend here...


  1. Rajeev,

    Will this news be good for Parekh Aluminex? After all people who are flying has to eat food too, right?

  2. Hi,
    I purchased XL Telecom @ 44/-. Now, it is having a freefall each day. Should I hold or exit? Please help.


  3. Dear Rajeev Ji,
    Markets taking double dip as same thing happen in shangai index some time back.traders were butchered ,If we are going same way as shangai.


  4. Dear Rajeev Ji,
    I read one article today India Buys Gold From IMF to Boost Reserves as Dollar Declines.If this is a reson of market crash.
    Read full http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVn9hwIfhdyk&pos=7

  5. Dear Rajeev,

    We will do well if we do the opposite of analysts.

    Look at them, at 8000 levels they were painting all dooms day theory.And at 17000 they were talking as if mkt is going to run up straight up.

    Coming to big cut in midcap and small cap, if that happens there are some fantastics companies to buy. Today i am surprised and a bit unhappy to see the below stocks just staying where they are
    - Navin flour
    - Apar

    Both of have come up with great nos for Q2 and looks like the shares are cornered.

    About the technicals, in my view technicals can predict the short term trends and reversal. I dont think it has the eyes to tell about the long term. Only fundamentals will.


  6. Venkat,
    Hold XL Tele.That is my view....

  7. Barat,
    Well,when I started recomending Navin at ISG and at MMB no one was ready to believe the story.I was able to see the growth but no one was sure about it.Then it came down to 80 in 2008 or 2009 Mar.I went on recomending it here.
    I have written that a stock fundamentals can come lateron which is not seen now.That happened with Stone India which I recomended at 9 and went on to touch 250+, then Kwality Dairy from 17 to over 1000,now Navin from below 80 to 280...Mcnally Bharat at 50 to now over 200....and many more....these are all stocks which I recomended way back.

  8. Uno,
    Parekh is my favourite....and you are thinking on right line...

  9. Dear Rajeev,

    True. I am surprised as to how market gave such a valuation to Navin in 2005- 2007 and dumped it in 08/09. If one looks into the real value then its a wonderful opp to buy if the mkt repeats the same. But now i think there is too much visibility for the markets to ignore.

    I think this crash tought many people who are ready to learn what markets is trying to teach. And i am sure if we apply the learnings and keep our mind open to learn any new leasons, market ll reward.

    I am tyring to seperate from the ones which you like the most( your darlings /favourites but still in young days of growth ) from the once which you respond to people's query and it eventualy becomes a looking good to you or not being tracked.

    Will send the list of ur favourites to get it verified.

    - Offcourse one needs to understand that there is not guarantee for it to be a mulitbagger from here on and may require long term holding strength.

    By the way on record i hold 100 kwality free shares. :)) I hold these free shares (e.g XL tel / Indag Rubber / Bartronics / Kwality ) as a sense of gratitude and appreciation to the company and i do inform the person from whom i heared about this company.

    I rememeber your call on kalinde nirman at 50 levels and it went places.


  10. Hi Rajeev,
    I bought Telecanor, Flex foods, Apar ind, all after reading them here.
    though I planned for long term, but here I see they making me loss everyday,, with telecanor touching down circuits everyday.
    Do you still hold your earlier BUY views on them? I mean shud I average them out ?
    I was thinking those stocks as buy and forget.. but you can suggest if should I hold them for long term, or exit after booking loss. Pls advise sir, since loss is increasing day by day.. thanks in advance.

  11. Dear OM,
    I am sorry to intervene here. Rajeev bhai,i am taking the liberty to put my thoughts.

    You have the same questions and anxiety almost every one of us have in common. The only difference is winners understand their anxiety and control them.

    Couple of points for you to ponder. ( may be u can write ur answers in a paper to review again)
    - When you read Rajeev's write up or for that matter any ones write up what did u feel about the stock. write it down in a paper
    - what did u liked in the company which made you buy immediately. Is it just the price or the business or the growth (eps / PE etc)
    - Was the price going up when you bought or was it consolidating or correcting?
    - What was ur expectation when you bought and ur current expectation from the company in the short / medium / longterm.
    - Review the current position of the company(except the price) and see any of ur understanding has changed.

    If u review ur answers, you will find an answer on your own. (e.g apar ind ,some on was ready to buy at 450-500 levels by jan 2008 and some one was ready to sell at 50-70 levels, march 09 lows and is there any rational behind it?)

    Stock market is about greed and fear. Never ever go with the market sentiments. It will make you crazy and snatch all the profits including your sleep.

  12. bharat,

    i like the way your replied.

  13. OM,
    Flex Food I recomended at around 17 and it is 26 now so up from my call, Apar Ind I gave a call at 141 and it is 160 now, it is also up ,Telecanor I recomended at 43 and is 30.90 which is down by 13 ....
    What I can do if you do not act in time and buy later when the prices has gone up?
    Except for Telecanor all are stil up from my recomended prices.
    There is some problem with management going on and hence it is diving.But I think it will do good in LT.....
    The other 2 are also fundamentally good stocks and hence no need to worry on them.
    UPs and Downs are part of this game.I again write , please don't buy anything on my call.I can go wrong.I am a humanbeing and I can make mistakes.
    The real key in stock market is , AT WHAT PRICE YOU BUY....and when you have bought ,he need to have conviction about it.One don't need to ask someone about it.
    If you feel that the stocks are not worth holding , you need to sell it.
    Stock market is a game of patience.This type of thing will keep on happening and you need to digest it and remain calm....