Friends,
I have kept on giving call on Sujana Towers since 2008.......it is making a new high and I am seeing bulk deals at bse.I still like this stock.
Vishnu Chem which I have been recomending since 30's has also crossed 100 mark.
Ennore Coke which has consolidated between 90-100 for long time has also crossed 100 .
Windsor Machine is also firing all cylinders......
I am tracking some other low price picks and let me write it down here which are they so that after DD readers if wants to buy they can buy....
1)Uniroyal Ind
2)Kay Power
3) Kilpest India Ltd
4)Conart Eng
5)Inter State Oil CarrierLtd
Well, freiends these are very low price picks and due diligence is a must before taking a call on them.
Well, Vishnu Chem , Ennore Coke , Venus Remedies,Sujana Towers, Srei Infra,Spanco ,Jyoti Ltd , SNL Bearing after it has corrected looks excellent buy according to me....
Well, price fluctuation is part of the game.One need to able to digest that.Always buy in SIP manner so that when the stock corrects we have money to buy more.
Try to find information on your own.I have written many times what I use to look at in picking a stock.Try to use that parametres and pick some stock on your own.Have conviction of your own.That is the bottomline.My conviction is of no importance because you have to keep on asking me whether you have to buy or not or hold or not or sell or not.....Create a situation where you have not to ask me and that is only possible only if you have enough information of any stock.
Stock never runs on our whims......
Updates on PSL Ltd:
I just read on bse that PSL got Rs 565 cr order and in which it was written that Co has many plants at various strategic location in different parts of India and in that one name was Mahudi(Gujarat), and Mahudi is located in North Gujarat.
Last time when I visited Mahudi, when I went to India in July I saw the plant of PSL Ltd , ofcourse from outside but when I saw that plants I was thinking that PSL Ltd has sought a excellent location for orders to come in.
Mahudi is in North Gujarat and a place of Jain Gujarati Pilgrimage a very very wellknown place and lacs of people visits this excellent place of Jain Tirthsthan.It is just like Shirdi Sai Baba place in Nasik .....lacs and lacs of devotees comes at Mahudi.I try to visit once in a while though no rule is abide for me......
But coming back to PSL Ltd , it seems that we are again seeing the orders flowing in PSL Ltd and that was ofcourse a big order of Rs 565 cr.....let us see where it goes from here.It has corrected enough to frusterate investors and ultimately sell the holding......
Again I write that do read my replies on queries asked........always read the comments section of this blog.....one will find always something interesting...an insight , a new stock...etc
Never miss reading COMMENTS....
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Sunday, September 26, 2010
‘Best time to buy stocks is when you don't feel like buying' .....Parag Parikh
Friends,
I am pasting here an interview of a veteran analyst and very wellknown figure in our stock market, Parag Parikh.....
The reason I am pasting his interview is he has come out with some excellent analysis on what one should do.....
Read on:
Stock market investing is not just about number crunching and balance sheet analysis. It involves a bit of mind game too. In an interview with Business Line, Mr Parag Parikh, Chairman, Parag Parikh Financial Advisory Services, shares interesting insights on behavioural finance and how investors can use it to make investment decisions. Excerpts:
How does behavioural finance explain the market and its movements?
We all learn that stock markets are efficient and people make rational decisions to maximise their profits. Now, behavioural finance is exactly the opposite. It says that markets are not efficient, especially in the short run. Suppose you find Rs 5 coin on the road when you are walking. Now, why do you think no one saw it, despite so many walking on the road? In the same way, markets are not efficient. Now take the case of people making rational decisions. If this were true, how would you explain people giving money to charities, or spending on parties to celebrate birthdays?
These are not rational acts because money is going out, but people still do it out of their hearts. More often than not, we make decisions from our hearts and not mind. That humans make irrational decisions at every point of time is also the reason why markets are so interesting and have a full industry following it.
How do you integrate behavioural finance into the services you offer?
My idea is to educate investors, to make them know that there are no short-cuts in the markets. The way markets are going up, banks are lending margin money and some of the mutual fund houses are advising investors, it all gives the wrong impression that one can make money in the market by simply buying and selling stocks. These are wrong notions. We cannot sow a seed today and expect it to become a tree tomorrow. It has to go through various stages and seasons to become one.( Everybody should remember this)
What we do is adopt a slow and steady approach. Our clients believe in our philosophy of value investing; we don't take money from people just because they are ready to give it us.
So why are you then entering the mutual fund business now?
The minimum entry amount for our PMS business is Rs 5 lakh. By entering the mutual funds space, we can cater to the small investor. He is the person who needs it the most. MF is a very good vehicle to meet their needs.
Here again, we will be different and will not concentrate on amassing AUM. We will concentrate on performance alone, using value-investing and behavioural finance. This is what we did in 2008. When the markets crashed, we went to our clients and told them to give us money!
You have to buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying. This is the basic concept of buying a value.
But unfortunately in the stock markets, investors find a stock less risky if everybody is buying and the stock prices are going up. And they find it more risky, when nobody is buying and the stock prices are down. That's the challenge we have to work with.
How do you use behavioural finance to invest?
We don't have a brilliant team, no one with capabilities to point out exactly how the markets will move! What we instead do is identify a good business, with a credible management and with a good moat around its business, strong network and less debt. We only buy such businesses and at the time they are available at a discount in the market. And when is that? When there is excessive fear in the market. We buy at that time and stay away from the market after that.
With so many companies tapping the primary markets, what is your view on IPOs as an investment vehicle?
I don't believe in investing in initial public offerings. Tell me why are there no IPOs in bad markets? Why do they come only in good markets?
That's because in good markets people are willing to pay any price for anything. The management agrees to sell their shares during good times because they know they will get a much better value for their shares.( I agree partially with this view...as it is noit always that when market is in bullrun only IPO that comes are not cheap.....there are exceptions....like we saw in Guj Pipavav, Indo Solar etc, the main thing is we need to able to find out which IPO is cheap.....)
And why don't companies come out with IPOs during bear markets? Well, because promoters feel that their share price should be valued higher than the rest of the market.
Why do you think retail interest took so much time to pick up?
Interest is how you see it. With the market picking up, we will certainly see retail activity picking up, as greed will then set in. Markets feed on greed and fear. Interestingly, when the markets offer opportunities for investments, there is immense fear in the market. That is also why only few are successful in the stock markets. We all want instant gratification.
What is your view on the market now? Do you think they are expensive?
See, here again we are following the insanity that the society has created. Now, Sensex has only 30 stocks, while Nifty has 50. Is that the market? No, as there are over 7,000 listed stocks! We are looking at the wrong barometer.( This I have been writing since long,don't look at the sensex....some 70 more stocks will be added by bse and then the market will still be at same high and the P/E will come down, then what one will do?Buy stocks at 22k?.....makes no sense looking at where the sensex is)
Moreover, how do companies get into these indices? By virtue of their market capitalisations alone. They are all big companies but not necessarily good companies. The market of more than 7,000 stocks outside of it is where the value is. Besides, mutual funds and institutions play with the Nifty all the time, there is no value per se there. A look at the open interest on Nifty will tell you that most institutions are into it already.
So what should retail investors do?
For retail investors, I would say the best time to buy stocks is when they don't feel like buying. And that brings me to the question - who is a retail investor?
An investor isn't someone who invests everyday. He is someone who invests once in probably two years, or whenever there's an opportunity. The rest are all punters. What advice can you give to punters?
My Comments:
Well,that was an excellent interview given by Parag Parikh a very veteran and a very well known analyst and investor of our stock market.
I have already given my views in bracket in the above interview.....the only thing I would like to add is........
Looking at Sensex level which consist of only 30 stocks and measuring the market valuation by P/E of Sensex 30 stocks makes no sense, OUT SIDE that 30 stocks there is a big ocean of 7000 stocks......BSE is going to add some 70 more stocks in near future and I assume that due to that the P/E will come down after these stocks will be added....and the P/E can come down as low as 13....and when that happens, the Sensex will still be at 20k or even shed better at 22k, already had broke the previous TOP, and people thinking the valuation has gone through the ROOF and time to sell and at that time BSE will add 70 more stocks and the P/E will be down to 13! and market will start looking cheap...then what will happen?People will start buying at SENSEX 22k, that the market is valued at 13 P/E and looking CHEAP ?
Well, it seems that Bulls has got the smell of what is going to be added and what will be the P/E after those 70 stocks will be added.....and hence they knows it very well that even if they will take Sensex to 22k level, at certain point of time, 22k will also looks cheap....for the reason I have cited above......
Kudos to Bulls for thinking ahead of Bears.......
Well, I maybe wrong and I may prove right.........let us see what happens....this is just my assumption.....
Read the excerpts of latest interview of Shankar Sharma.......same old record.....Market is showing distribution taking place and we cannot move up......and maximum it willgo to 21k...etc etc...I use to paste his interview here but am tired of reading his bearish view...so am not doing that....
In stock market," Winners are those who can see what will be coming up"......
I am pasting here an interview of a veteran analyst and very wellknown figure in our stock market, Parag Parikh.....
The reason I am pasting his interview is he has come out with some excellent analysis on what one should do.....
Read on:
Stock market investing is not just about number crunching and balance sheet analysis. It involves a bit of mind game too. In an interview with Business Line, Mr Parag Parikh, Chairman, Parag Parikh Financial Advisory Services, shares interesting insights on behavioural finance and how investors can use it to make investment decisions. Excerpts:
How does behavioural finance explain the market and its movements?
We all learn that stock markets are efficient and people make rational decisions to maximise their profits. Now, behavioural finance is exactly the opposite. It says that markets are not efficient, especially in the short run. Suppose you find Rs 5 coin on the road when you are walking. Now, why do you think no one saw it, despite so many walking on the road? In the same way, markets are not efficient. Now take the case of people making rational decisions. If this were true, how would you explain people giving money to charities, or spending on parties to celebrate birthdays?
These are not rational acts because money is going out, but people still do it out of their hearts. More often than not, we make decisions from our hearts and not mind. That humans make irrational decisions at every point of time is also the reason why markets are so interesting and have a full industry following it.
How do you integrate behavioural finance into the services you offer?
My idea is to educate investors, to make them know that there are no short-cuts in the markets. The way markets are going up, banks are lending margin money and some of the mutual fund houses are advising investors, it all gives the wrong impression that one can make money in the market by simply buying and selling stocks. These are wrong notions. We cannot sow a seed today and expect it to become a tree tomorrow. It has to go through various stages and seasons to become one.( Everybody should remember this)
What we do is adopt a slow and steady approach. Our clients believe in our philosophy of value investing; we don't take money from people just because they are ready to give it us.
So why are you then entering the mutual fund business now?
The minimum entry amount for our PMS business is Rs 5 lakh. By entering the mutual funds space, we can cater to the small investor. He is the person who needs it the most. MF is a very good vehicle to meet their needs.
Here again, we will be different and will not concentrate on amassing AUM. We will concentrate on performance alone, using value-investing and behavioural finance. This is what we did in 2008. When the markets crashed, we went to our clients and told them to give us money!
You have to buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying. This is the basic concept of buying a value.
But unfortunately in the stock markets, investors find a stock less risky if everybody is buying and the stock prices are going up. And they find it more risky, when nobody is buying and the stock prices are down. That's the challenge we have to work with.
How do you use behavioural finance to invest?
We don't have a brilliant team, no one with capabilities to point out exactly how the markets will move! What we instead do is identify a good business, with a credible management and with a good moat around its business, strong network and less debt. We only buy such businesses and at the time they are available at a discount in the market. And when is that? When there is excessive fear in the market. We buy at that time and stay away from the market after that.
With so many companies tapping the primary markets, what is your view on IPOs as an investment vehicle?
I don't believe in investing in initial public offerings. Tell me why are there no IPOs in bad markets? Why do they come only in good markets?
That's because in good markets people are willing to pay any price for anything. The management agrees to sell their shares during good times because they know they will get a much better value for their shares.( I agree partially with this view...as it is noit always that when market is in bullrun only IPO that comes are not cheap.....there are exceptions....like we saw in Guj Pipavav, Indo Solar etc, the main thing is we need to able to find out which IPO is cheap.....)
And why don't companies come out with IPOs during bear markets? Well, because promoters feel that their share price should be valued higher than the rest of the market.
Why do you think retail interest took so much time to pick up?
Interest is how you see it. With the market picking up, we will certainly see retail activity picking up, as greed will then set in. Markets feed on greed and fear. Interestingly, when the markets offer opportunities for investments, there is immense fear in the market. That is also why only few are successful in the stock markets. We all want instant gratification.
What is your view on the market now? Do you think they are expensive?
See, here again we are following the insanity that the society has created. Now, Sensex has only 30 stocks, while Nifty has 50. Is that the market? No, as there are over 7,000 listed stocks! We are looking at the wrong barometer.( This I have been writing since long,don't look at the sensex....some 70 more stocks will be added by bse and then the market will still be at same high and the P/E will come down, then what one will do?Buy stocks at 22k?.....makes no sense looking at where the sensex is)
Moreover, how do companies get into these indices? By virtue of their market capitalisations alone. They are all big companies but not necessarily good companies. The market of more than 7,000 stocks outside of it is where the value is. Besides, mutual funds and institutions play with the Nifty all the time, there is no value per se there. A look at the open interest on Nifty will tell you that most institutions are into it already.
So what should retail investors do?
For retail investors, I would say the best time to buy stocks is when they don't feel like buying. And that brings me to the question - who is a retail investor?
An investor isn't someone who invests everyday. He is someone who invests once in probably two years, or whenever there's an opportunity. The rest are all punters. What advice can you give to punters?
My Comments:
Well,that was an excellent interview given by Parag Parikh a very veteran and a very well known analyst and investor of our stock market.
I have already given my views in bracket in the above interview.....the only thing I would like to add is........
Looking at Sensex level which consist of only 30 stocks and measuring the market valuation by P/E of Sensex 30 stocks makes no sense, OUT SIDE that 30 stocks there is a big ocean of 7000 stocks......BSE is going to add some 70 more stocks in near future and I assume that due to that the P/E will come down after these stocks will be added....and the P/E can come down as low as 13....and when that happens, the Sensex will still be at 20k or even shed better at 22k, already had broke the previous TOP, and people thinking the valuation has gone through the ROOF and time to sell and at that time BSE will add 70 more stocks and the P/E will be down to 13! and market will start looking cheap...then what will happen?People will start buying at SENSEX 22k, that the market is valued at 13 P/E and looking CHEAP ?
Well, it seems that Bulls has got the smell of what is going to be added and what will be the P/E after those 70 stocks will be added.....and hence they knows it very well that even if they will take Sensex to 22k level, at certain point of time, 22k will also looks cheap....for the reason I have cited above......
Kudos to Bulls for thinking ahead of Bears.......
Well, I maybe wrong and I may prove right.........let us see what happens....this is just my assumption.....
Read the excerpts of latest interview of Shankar Sharma.......same old record.....Market is showing distribution taking place and we cannot move up......and maximum it willgo to 21k...etc etc...I use to paste his interview here but am tired of reading his bearish view...so am not doing that....
In stock market," Winners are those who can see what will be coming up"......
Friday, September 24, 2010
US is still in a recession, says Warren Buffett ............
INTERVIEW - EXCLUSIVE BY CNBC-TV18 - US is still in a recession, says Warren Buffett
B Y B ECKY Q UICK CNBC························· NEW YORK
The chief executive officer ofBerkshire Hathaway Inc., Warren Buffett, says he doesn't think the US reces- sion is over yet. He also admits in an interview that US tax poli- cy has tilted in favour of rich “guys“ like himself instead of the middle class. Edited ex- cerpts:
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) said this week that the US recession officially end ed back in June of last year.
Well, they define it different- ly. But I ...think we're in a re- cession until real per capita GDP (gross domestic product) gets back to where it was be- fore. That is not the way the NBER measures it. But I will tell you that on any common-sense definition, the average Ameri- can is below where he was be- fore, or his family, in terms of real income, GDP. We're still in a recession. And we're not go- ing to be out of it for a while, but we will get out of it.
We're not going to be out of it for a while--a quarter, two quarters, a year down the road? Just from your business, what does it tell?
Our businesses are coming back...we've got 70-some busi- nesses. But most of them--the great majority--are coming back slowly... If you take our railroad business, and our rail- road business is typical of the other railroads...If you take the peak period for shipments and then you go all the way down to the bottom, we're 61% of the way back up. That's better, I think, than most businesses are in the country.
The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee also met this week and-- came out with a statement that has many looking at it saying the Fed is now poised to go ahead with quantitative easing, if the economy doesn't improve, at this point. Is that your understanding of that? And you think that's the right call?
Well, we've got three tools really in fighting a recession.
And the ones you read about are monetary policy, which is the Fed. And fiscal policy. I think the most important factor in getting out of the recession actually is just the regenerative capacity of American capital- ism. And we had many reces- sions in the history of this country when nobody even heard of fiscal policy or mone- tary policy. The country always comes back. ..And it's impor- tant to have the right monetary policy. It's important to have the right fiscal policy. But it's nowhere near as important as just the normal regenerative capacity of American capital- ism.
It sounds like you're asking for pa tience. That that's what it takes to get through this.
Well, unfortunately, I don't know how to do it...we have used up a lot of bullets. And we talk about stimulus. But the truth is, we're running a federal deficit that's 9% of GDP. That is stimulative...I mean, that is more stimulative than any poli- cy we have followed since World War II.
For businesses to be hiring, has Washington done enough at this point? Would you like to see more done? It sounds like from a stimulus perspective, you've seen enough. Maybe from the Fed's perspective, you have seen enough. Is there any- thing you would like to see dif- ferent in tax structure?
Well, I think for one reason or another, and everybody has their own explanation, senti- ment has turned very sour in the last three or four or five months. I hope we get over it pretty soon because it's not productive. We will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington. But it's not helpful to have people as un- happy as they are about what's going on in Washington. And I'm not sure exactly what's gonna get us out of that, but we'll get out of it.
My Reading :
Well, I know many must be trying to understand this news in a different ways and many will feel that USA is still not out of woods so the global market is still in danger.....
Many analyst will read it and interpret it in differnt way, or I can say will interpret it the way they likes.........
Here is what I feel......the things that my mind is taking note of is as under:
1)We're still in a recession. And we're not go- ing to be out of it for a while, but we will get out of it.
the last line, "but we will get out of it" says everything....
2)WB says that he hs some 70 business and all are coming back and that too in a great way....61% up from down!......
Now if the wrold analyst or experts , and the experts here in India says that US economy coming to normal is manupalation of figures then how WB Business is doing good?Is WB bluffing?
3)"And the ones you read about are monetary policy, which is the Fed. And fiscal policy. I think the most important factor in getting out of the recession actually is just the regenerative capacity of American capital- ism. "
Now the last line is bottomline....."Regenerative capacity of America's Capitalsim"
WB says , USA has seen many recession and they have come out of it everytime.Even when there was no fiscal policy or monetray policy even then America came out of it.When no one heard of such things America has come out of the recession and that is why he is so sure of US economy coming out of recession......
See,one( any country) cannot compare their economy with USA.It is totally a differrnt economy to deal with.Even I am not clear about the whole concept , but ....."Regenerative capacity of America's Capitalsim"........people spends and economy flourishes........that is the explaination in "NUTSHELL"........
So in the end I will say that ,my sense says that within next 6-9 months things should fall in place in USA.....
B Y B ECKY Q UICK CNBC························· NEW YORK
The chief executive officer ofBerkshire Hathaway Inc., Warren Buffett, says he doesn't think the US reces- sion is over yet. He also admits in an interview that US tax poli- cy has tilted in favour of rich “guys“ like himself instead of the middle class. Edited ex- cerpts:
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) said this week that the US recession officially end ed back in June of last year.
Well, they define it different- ly. But I ...think we're in a re- cession until real per capita GDP (gross domestic product) gets back to where it was be- fore. That is not the way the NBER measures it. But I will tell you that on any common-sense definition, the average Ameri- can is below where he was be- fore, or his family, in terms of real income, GDP. We're still in a recession. And we're not go- ing to be out of it for a while, but we will get out of it.
We're not going to be out of it for a while--a quarter, two quarters, a year down the road? Just from your business, what does it tell?
Our businesses are coming back...we've got 70-some busi- nesses. But most of them--the great majority--are coming back slowly... If you take our railroad business, and our rail- road business is typical of the other railroads...If you take the peak period for shipments and then you go all the way down to the bottom, we're 61% of the way back up. That's better, I think, than most businesses are in the country.
The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee also met this week and-- came out with a statement that has many looking at it saying the Fed is now poised to go ahead with quantitative easing, if the economy doesn't improve, at this point. Is that your understanding of that? And you think that's the right call?
Well, we've got three tools really in fighting a recession.
And the ones you read about are monetary policy, which is the Fed. And fiscal policy. I think the most important factor in getting out of the recession actually is just the regenerative capacity of American capital- ism. And we had many reces- sions in the history of this country when nobody even heard of fiscal policy or mone- tary policy. The country always comes back. ..And it's impor- tant to have the right monetary policy. It's important to have the right fiscal policy. But it's nowhere near as important as just the normal regenerative capacity of American capital- ism.
It sounds like you're asking for pa tience. That that's what it takes to get through this.
Well, unfortunately, I don't know how to do it...we have used up a lot of bullets. And we talk about stimulus. But the truth is, we're running a federal deficit that's 9% of GDP. That is stimulative...I mean, that is more stimulative than any poli- cy we have followed since World War II.
For businesses to be hiring, has Washington done enough at this point? Would you like to see more done? It sounds like from a stimulus perspective, you've seen enough. Maybe from the Fed's perspective, you have seen enough. Is there any- thing you would like to see dif- ferent in tax structure?
Well, I think for one reason or another, and everybody has their own explanation, senti- ment has turned very sour in the last three or four or five months. I hope we get over it pretty soon because it's not productive. We will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington. But it's not helpful to have people as un- happy as they are about what's going on in Washington. And I'm not sure exactly what's gonna get us out of that, but we'll get out of it.
My Reading :
Well, I know many must be trying to understand this news in a different ways and many will feel that USA is still not out of woods so the global market is still in danger.....
Many analyst will read it and interpret it in differnt way, or I can say will interpret it the way they likes.........
Here is what I feel......the things that my mind is taking note of is as under:
1)We're still in a recession. And we're not go- ing to be out of it for a while, but we will get out of it.
the last line, "but we will get out of it" says everything....
2)WB says that he hs some 70 business and all are coming back and that too in a great way....61% up from down!......
Now if the wrold analyst or experts , and the experts here in India says that US economy coming to normal is manupalation of figures then how WB Business is doing good?Is WB bluffing?
3)"And the ones you read about are monetary policy, which is the Fed. And fiscal policy. I think the most important factor in getting out of the recession actually is just the regenerative capacity of American capital- ism. "
Now the last line is bottomline....."Regenerative capacity of America's Capitalsim"
WB says , USA has seen many recession and they have come out of it everytime.Even when there was no fiscal policy or monetray policy even then America came out of it.When no one heard of such things America has come out of the recession and that is why he is so sure of US economy coming out of recession......
See,one( any country) cannot compare their economy with USA.It is totally a differrnt economy to deal with.Even I am not clear about the whole concept , but ....."Regenerative capacity of America's Capitalsim"........people spends and economy flourishes........that is the explaination in "NUTSHELL"........
So in the end I will say that ,my sense says that within next 6-9 months things should fall in place in USA.....
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Sensex near 20k.....A Hypothesis...Comparing Crude movement with Sensex...
Friends,
I have been observing this move of Sensex and Nifty with great excitement.Only certain A gr stocks are moving and midcap/smallcap are going down or not moving at all......It is clear that shorts are tarpped and bulls are hammering them like anything.Once the position , be it short or long is known and the weakness is found, then the other who is weak has to pay a heavy price...and here bears are paying for playing short....as soon as the short will be cut down market will correct...
The move of indices is absolutely speculative for last 1500 points in sensex.I feel that market should correct anytime for again of 1000-1500 points.It is the short position that is making this unusal rise......
But get ready for 1000 points correction in sensex any time......
But that doesn't mean that Midcap/smallcap will also go down.Maybe this time in correction , this segment can move in opposite direction.
Well, I was thinking on Crude and was trying to see when was Crude at $72 last time before it touched $147.27( not sure about exact quote) ion July 2008....and from that Crude went down as much as $33.87 in Dec 2008........and is now hovering around $74.34.......
I was trying to figure out when crude was around same price on its upward journey to $147...what was time when crude was at $74?
And after exploring much on internet I am able to gather the information Crude touched $77 in June 2006 and again in June/july 2007....
Now when I try to see what was the sensex in June 2006 , then Sensex was around 10,000 and in June 2007 it was around 14k....
Well, friends what I am trying to derive from all this statistic is, what can be the SENSEX WHEN AGAIN CRUDE WILL TOUCH THE PREVIOSU HIGH......at $147.27!
I can be totally wrong in my hypothises and so one need to take a call according to oneself......
Now if we come back on what I am trying to figure out, then say, if we take 2006 as base then sensex was at 10k and it went on to touch 21k, means 110% upmove from 10k....10,000+11000= 21,000...and that was the TOP we saw in 2008 Jan.
The second option is June 2007 where Crude touched $74(appro) and the SENSEX was at 14,000...so sensex move from 14k to 21k , means 7k up means 50% from 14k......
Now the Crude is at $74 and in that we have TWO scenario.....
Either we take 2006 june or we take 2007 June as base for sensex.....
Now one can see that, at Crude $74 we are now at 19800, means 20k....so the probability that occurs are of two type..:
1) Sensex has 110% return from 20k, now when the crude is $74 , and leads us to SENSEX at 42,000...
and
2) Taking the base of 2007 june when sensex was at 14k, when crude was again at $74, then 50% up from where it is now.....means 30k SENSEX.....
Well, in both the probailities, we have SENSEX crossing 30k......
Now both the above probailities has other options too! One is if Crude remains at same stage for more then 2 yrs or say, takes more time to touch all time high of $147,then the upward target for Sensex can be even bigger then 42K......but if Crude moves exactly what it did after 2007 then also we are sure to touch 30k and even more.
Well, these are all hypothetical statistics.This can happen and may not happen.But what I am trying to say here is Charts also show the same thing.This can happen and this may not happen.
None of the chartist came out to say that 19800 will come and everyone were sceptic of the further upmove on sensex......
But one thing is sure untill Crude remains below $100 , market will keep on outperforming and in perticular Emerging market , in that India , Russia and Brazil.
Crude remians cheap so will be the production cost.Just imagine the scenario when crude was at $147 and what was the IMPACT.
World is not witnessing that.But Goldman Sachs is bullishn on Crude and Gold .I am bullish on GOLD. No view on Crude how it will go but the journey is upward that I am sure on that but when crude will cross the previous high is hard to project.
In June 2008 I use to write that Crude at $147 is speculative and it turned out to be true.All analyst were gungho on Crude touching $200......
Well,I have written my views on sensex and tried to match it with crude movement.....I may go totally wrong and I may prove absoluetly correct...Let us see what happens!
There is still one catch here.If crude crosses $147 and this time it touches the Magic figure of $200, then where will the Sensex be!
I have been observing this move of Sensex and Nifty with great excitement.Only certain A gr stocks are moving and midcap/smallcap are going down or not moving at all......It is clear that shorts are tarpped and bulls are hammering them like anything.Once the position , be it short or long is known and the weakness is found, then the other who is weak has to pay a heavy price...and here bears are paying for playing short....as soon as the short will be cut down market will correct...
The move of indices is absolutely speculative for last 1500 points in sensex.I feel that market should correct anytime for again of 1000-1500 points.It is the short position that is making this unusal rise......
But get ready for 1000 points correction in sensex any time......
But that doesn't mean that Midcap/smallcap will also go down.Maybe this time in correction , this segment can move in opposite direction.
Well, I was thinking on Crude and was trying to see when was Crude at $72 last time before it touched $147.27( not sure about exact quote) ion July 2008....and from that Crude went down as much as $33.87 in Dec 2008........and is now hovering around $74.34.......
I was trying to figure out when crude was around same price on its upward journey to $147...what was time when crude was at $74?
And after exploring much on internet I am able to gather the information Crude touched $77 in June 2006 and again in June/july 2007....
Now when I try to see what was the sensex in June 2006 , then Sensex was around 10,000 and in June 2007 it was around 14k....
Well, friends what I am trying to derive from all this statistic is, what can be the SENSEX WHEN AGAIN CRUDE WILL TOUCH THE PREVIOSU HIGH......at $147.27!
I can be totally wrong in my hypothises and so one need to take a call according to oneself......
Now if we come back on what I am trying to figure out, then say, if we take 2006 as base then sensex was at 10k and it went on to touch 21k, means 110% upmove from 10k....10,000+11000= 21,000...and that was the TOP we saw in 2008 Jan.
The second option is June 2007 where Crude touched $74(appro) and the SENSEX was at 14,000...so sensex move from 14k to 21k , means 7k up means 50% from 14k......
Now the Crude is at $74 and in that we have TWO scenario.....
Either we take 2006 june or we take 2007 June as base for sensex.....
Now one can see that, at Crude $74 we are now at 19800, means 20k....so the probability that occurs are of two type..:
1) Sensex has 110% return from 20k, now when the crude is $74 , and leads us to SENSEX at 42,000...
and
2) Taking the base of 2007 june when sensex was at 14k, when crude was again at $74, then 50% up from where it is now.....means 30k SENSEX.....
Well, in both the probailities, we have SENSEX crossing 30k......
Now both the above probailities has other options too! One is if Crude remains at same stage for more then 2 yrs or say, takes more time to touch all time high of $147,then the upward target for Sensex can be even bigger then 42K......but if Crude moves exactly what it did after 2007 then also we are sure to touch 30k and even more.
Well, these are all hypothetical statistics.This can happen and may not happen.But what I am trying to say here is Charts also show the same thing.This can happen and this may not happen.
None of the chartist came out to say that 19800 will come and everyone were sceptic of the further upmove on sensex......
But one thing is sure untill Crude remains below $100 , market will keep on outperforming and in perticular Emerging market , in that India , Russia and Brazil.
Crude remians cheap so will be the production cost.Just imagine the scenario when crude was at $147 and what was the IMPACT.
World is not witnessing that.But Goldman Sachs is bullishn on Crude and Gold .I am bullish on GOLD. No view on Crude how it will go but the journey is upward that I am sure on that but when crude will cross the previous high is hard to project.
In June 2008 I use to write that Crude at $147 is speculative and it turned out to be true.All analyst were gungho on Crude touching $200......
Well,I have written my views on sensex and tried to match it with crude movement.....I may go totally wrong and I may prove absoluetly correct...Let us see what happens!
There is still one catch here.If crude crosses $147 and this time it touches the Magic figure of $200, then where will the Sensex be!
Monday, September 20, 2010
Adhunik Metalinks ...cmp Rs 116.30.....a case of Valuation....
Friends,
Many times we look at the valuation.Whether a stock is over valued or undervalued or fairly valued.
I remember I have written in length about "VALUATION"....if someone can write it in "search "tab here on right of my blog one can find that writeup.....
I never am able to understand how analyst decides on Valuation of certain stocks......Valuation is constantly changing parametres and one need to be in constant touch of any development taking place in that perticular stock....just one big order or some collobaration and valuation can come up or go down drastically......
Well, Adhunil Metalinks is the same case of Valuation.I just went through a report of Adhunik on DNA Money site and ended up on this report which I am pasting here for my readers......
Adhunik to benefit from mining, power foray
Published: Monday, Sep 20, 2010, 3:40 IST
By Nitin P Shrivastava
Place: Mumbai
Agency: DNA
As the domestic economy continues to remain on firm footing, infrastructure spending and consumption would continue to spur the demand for steel products.
Adhunik Metaliks, a mid-size steel player is set to reap the benefits of its backward integration plans, ramp up in merchant mining volumes and its recent foray into power segment.
Business
Adhunik Metaliks manufactures alloy steel, special steel and stainless steel, catering to automobile, engineering, power, oil & gas and construction sectors. The company has recently diversified itself into the mining and power segments to generate additional revenues.
Steel segment:
The company derives about 84% of revenues from this segment. It focuses on value added products from its single manufacturing plant, which has a total installed capacity to produce 0.45 mtpa of steel. Adhunik has an installed capacity to produce around 0.21 mtpa of pig iron and 0.3 mtpa of sponge iron. The company is looking to expand its sponge iron making capacity from 0.3 mtpa to 0.4 mtpa in next two years.
Adhunik’s focus to up the share of alloy revenues to total sales from 54% to 70% in the coming years would result in better realisations, increasing revenues.
The company sources 40% of its iron ore requirements from the merchant mines of its subsidiary, Orissa Manganese & Minerals (OMML). Adhunik has been allocated captive iron ore mines with reserves of 25 mt, which are expected to be partly operational in next 3-4 months. These would help company to meet close to 60% of total ore requirements in FY12. Also, the company has been allocated captive coal mines which are expected to get operational by FY13.Adhunik is able to meet 40% of the power requirement in-house, through its captive plantof 34 mw currently, which is being ramped up to generate 80 mw in the next two years.
Mining segment:
This high-margin segment contributed 16% of consolidated revenues in FY10, which is expected to grow substantially as mining volumes go up. Adhunik, through OMML, possesses iron ore and manganese ore mines with reserves of 97 mt and 53 mt, respectively, both of which are expected to last over 30 years. The company, which mined 1.15 mt of iron ore and 0.14 mt of manganese ore last year, plans to enhance production gradually over next 1-2 years resulting in higher sales.
Furthermore, the company plans to set up 1.2 mtpa pelletisation plant (expected by Q4FY12), an iron-ore beneficiation plant 0.05mtpa ferro alloys plant along with 30 mw captive power plant, to convert low-grade materials into pellets which would provide better realizations.
Power segment:
The company is also venturing into the merchant power business through its subsidiary Adhunik Power and Natural Resources Ltd (APNRL), which is planning to set up a 1080 mw thermal power plant, to be commissioned in three phases.The company has already achieved financial closure of the first two phases of 270 mw each to be commissioned by April 2012. APNRL has signed a power purchase agreement with Tata Power for selling 100 mw.
Investment rationale:
Adhunik’s backward and forward integration efforts would result in huge benefits for the company in 2-3 years. Through forward integration, the company is looking to increase sales of value-added products ands this is likely to result in improved realisations and higher revenues.
The firm’s efforts to ramp up the capacities of finished value-added steel products from 0.45 mtpa currently to 1.2 mtpa by FY15, on back of improving demand from automobiles and construction sector will help the company to garner higher volumes and sales.
Captive raw material sourcing through its iron ore and coal mines is likely to ensure fuel security and reduce costs, aiding net profit margins. Rise in production volumes in its mining business and improved realisations from planned investments would further boost revenues and margins. The management expects the power business to contribute 20% to company’s consolidated revenues from FY13 onwards.
Concerns
Any slowdown in the auto and construction sectors may impact volumes and a fall in prices of ore and steel may also lead to lower revenues. Adhunik also faces execution risks in adding additional capacities both in steel and power segments. Any delays in its captive mines getting operational due to environmental issues or otherwise could also lead to delay in accrual of benefits and thereby impacting the profits.
Valuations
Driven by higher volumes in its steel and merchant mining businesses, Adhunik’s revenues are expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% over FY10-FY12. Net profit is likely to grow at a CAGR of 47% on benefits out of backward integration and higher margins in the mining segment. At a current market price of Rs116.30, the stock trades at P/E ratio of 6.35 times expected FY11 earnings and 4.87 times FY12 expected earnings respectively. The stock can be looked at current levels from long term perspective.
My Analysis :
Well, what catch my eys in this report are Mining segments and Power segments.That is the catch here.
Now eps of Adhunik Met is 4.80 for Mar 2010 and price is 116 means discounting the last year eps at 24.....now if someone just look at the p/e and see then one will only come to the conclusion that at 24 p/e Adhunik is overvalued....but when one goes in deeper, and try to take account of 1080 MW thermal power plant and that the Coal used for the power plant they already have acquired through their subsidiary Orissa Mangenese and Mineral then it looks like, the valuation will becomes cheap when the plant gets operational in by Apr 2012.
The Iron Ore mines will also add to the bottomline of Steel Plant as they have already have Iorn Ore mines which will be good for them for next 30 yrs.....Excellent!
Well, I was not tracking this Co so I was not able to get this annoucement in time...otherwise we would have been early bird in this counter...maybe around 30-35 range when it was in Apr 2009...but after that the stock has been in constant upmove .....making a very good base at price 95 and 100.....
Well, friends I leave it to you to decide whether one should go with Adhunik or wait for some downside....that maybe of 10-15%....not more.....but 97 mt and 57 mt iorn ore and Coal mines are big quantity.....
Those Co having Iron Ore Mines and Coal Mines are going to be benifitted in big way.....as they will not have to depend on that from others.......
But surely, market is discounting the mines of iron ore and Coal ....for Adhunik and giving thumbs up on valuation ......
Readers are invited to write some other stocks which have already have got Mines rights through its sub or directly......
Many times we look at the valuation.Whether a stock is over valued or undervalued or fairly valued.
I remember I have written in length about "VALUATION"....if someone can write it in "search "tab here on right of my blog one can find that writeup.....
I never am able to understand how analyst decides on Valuation of certain stocks......Valuation is constantly changing parametres and one need to be in constant touch of any development taking place in that perticular stock....just one big order or some collobaration and valuation can come up or go down drastically......
Well, Adhunil Metalinks is the same case of Valuation.I just went through a report of Adhunik on DNA Money site and ended up on this report which I am pasting here for my readers......
Adhunik to benefit from mining, power foray
Published: Monday, Sep 20, 2010, 3:40 IST
By Nitin P Shrivastava
Place: Mumbai
Agency: DNA
As the domestic economy continues to remain on firm footing, infrastructure spending and consumption would continue to spur the demand for steel products.
Adhunik Metaliks, a mid-size steel player is set to reap the benefits of its backward integration plans, ramp up in merchant mining volumes and its recent foray into power segment.
Business
Adhunik Metaliks manufactures alloy steel, special steel and stainless steel, catering to automobile, engineering, power, oil & gas and construction sectors. The company has recently diversified itself into the mining and power segments to generate additional revenues.
Steel segment:
The company derives about 84% of revenues from this segment. It focuses on value added products from its single manufacturing plant, which has a total installed capacity to produce 0.45 mtpa of steel. Adhunik has an installed capacity to produce around 0.21 mtpa of pig iron and 0.3 mtpa of sponge iron. The company is looking to expand its sponge iron making capacity from 0.3 mtpa to 0.4 mtpa in next two years.
Adhunik’s focus to up the share of alloy revenues to total sales from 54% to 70% in the coming years would result in better realisations, increasing revenues.
The company sources 40% of its iron ore requirements from the merchant mines of its subsidiary, Orissa Manganese & Minerals (OMML). Adhunik has been allocated captive iron ore mines with reserves of 25 mt, which are expected to be partly operational in next 3-4 months. These would help company to meet close to 60% of total ore requirements in FY12. Also, the company has been allocated captive coal mines which are expected to get operational by FY13.Adhunik is able to meet 40% of the power requirement in-house, through its captive plantof 34 mw currently, which is being ramped up to generate 80 mw in the next two years.
Mining segment:
This high-margin segment contributed 16% of consolidated revenues in FY10, which is expected to grow substantially as mining volumes go up. Adhunik, through OMML, possesses iron ore and manganese ore mines with reserves of 97 mt and 53 mt, respectively, both of which are expected to last over 30 years. The company, which mined 1.15 mt of iron ore and 0.14 mt of manganese ore last year, plans to enhance production gradually over next 1-2 years resulting in higher sales.
Furthermore, the company plans to set up 1.2 mtpa pelletisation plant (expected by Q4FY12), an iron-ore beneficiation plant 0.05mtpa ferro alloys plant along with 30 mw captive power plant, to convert low-grade materials into pellets which would provide better realizations.
Power segment:
The company is also venturing into the merchant power business through its subsidiary Adhunik Power and Natural Resources Ltd (APNRL), which is planning to set up a 1080 mw thermal power plant, to be commissioned in three phases.The company has already achieved financial closure of the first two phases of 270 mw each to be commissioned by April 2012. APNRL has signed a power purchase agreement with Tata Power for selling 100 mw.
Investment rationale:
Adhunik’s backward and forward integration efforts would result in huge benefits for the company in 2-3 years. Through forward integration, the company is looking to increase sales of value-added products ands this is likely to result in improved realisations and higher revenues.
The firm’s efforts to ramp up the capacities of finished value-added steel products from 0.45 mtpa currently to 1.2 mtpa by FY15, on back of improving demand from automobiles and construction sector will help the company to garner higher volumes and sales.
Captive raw material sourcing through its iron ore and coal mines is likely to ensure fuel security and reduce costs, aiding net profit margins. Rise in production volumes in its mining business and improved realisations from planned investments would further boost revenues and margins. The management expects the power business to contribute 20% to company’s consolidated revenues from FY13 onwards.
Concerns
Any slowdown in the auto and construction sectors may impact volumes and a fall in prices of ore and steel may also lead to lower revenues. Adhunik also faces execution risks in adding additional capacities both in steel and power segments. Any delays in its captive mines getting operational due to environmental issues or otherwise could also lead to delay in accrual of benefits and thereby impacting the profits.
Valuations
Driven by higher volumes in its steel and merchant mining businesses, Adhunik’s revenues are expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% over FY10-FY12. Net profit is likely to grow at a CAGR of 47% on benefits out of backward integration and higher margins in the mining segment. At a current market price of Rs116.30, the stock trades at P/E ratio of 6.35 times expected FY11 earnings and 4.87 times FY12 expected earnings respectively. The stock can be looked at current levels from long term perspective.
My Analysis :
Well, what catch my eys in this report are Mining segments and Power segments.That is the catch here.
Now eps of Adhunik Met is 4.80 for Mar 2010 and price is 116 means discounting the last year eps at 24.....now if someone just look at the p/e and see then one will only come to the conclusion that at 24 p/e Adhunik is overvalued....but when one goes in deeper, and try to take account of 1080 MW thermal power plant and that the Coal used for the power plant they already have acquired through their subsidiary Orissa Mangenese and Mineral then it looks like, the valuation will becomes cheap when the plant gets operational in by Apr 2012.
The Iron Ore mines will also add to the bottomline of Steel Plant as they have already have Iorn Ore mines which will be good for them for next 30 yrs.....Excellent!
Well, I was not tracking this Co so I was not able to get this annoucement in time...otherwise we would have been early bird in this counter...maybe around 30-35 range when it was in Apr 2009...but after that the stock has been in constant upmove .....making a very good base at price 95 and 100.....
Well, friends I leave it to you to decide whether one should go with Adhunik or wait for some downside....that maybe of 10-15%....not more.....but 97 mt and 57 mt iorn ore and Coal mines are big quantity.....
Those Co having Iron Ore Mines and Coal Mines are going to be benifitted in big way.....as they will not have to depend on that from others.......
But surely, market is discounting the mines of iron ore and Coal ....for Adhunik and giving thumbs up on valuation ......
Readers are invited to write some other stocks which have already have got Mines rights through its sub or directly......
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Sensex crosses...........19k..........
Friends,
I have been writing since long that market has one direction and that is UP.I donno how many had faith in my call but those who put the faith must be very glad to see that sensex is at 19500!
It seems that there is a great fight going on between Bulls and Bears.But remember, Bulls cannot get the support they wants if fundamentals or Micro or Macro factors do not support it.
So supporting Bulls is not without a base.
I remember in May 2009 when the parliament results were out and Congress got the clean majority and the obstacle of Leftist were out, Bulls were able to show a 20% upper circuit in Nifty and Sensex and that was the most glorious day of Indian Stock Market.
Remember, it is not easy to keep the Sensex and Nifty in UC for the whole day.Making one stock in UC for whole day is a difficuly preposition.
Let us take an example.
Say,a Rs 40 price stock is kept at buyer circuits for the whole day.
Now what can happen and what an operator needs to do for that.He has to keep on buying any selling that comes on it way for keeping it on upper circuit.Any selling...means it can be 10k shares or 1 lac shares or 10 shares ......now if a stock remains on buyer circuit then if say, in the first hour of morning trade some 10k shares comes for selling, then one need to have 4 lacs rupees to pay to eat all these selling and suppose by the end of the day, 10 lacs shares has come for selling , then 4 cr rupees is needed to eat all the supply....and then and then only a stock will remain in UC for the whole day.....
Now imagine, keeping Sensex and Nifty in Upper Circuit for 20% for whole day is no childs play.Bears can supply papers from any A gr stocks which has got high liquidity and bears can borrow it from any Institution and sell the stocks .
One can't imagine how much planning and manupalation is needed to do it.It needs all ones acumen, vile and guil to do it.
I donno, as I have seen in past, as soon as market corrects by 1000 points, Mr Bear is on the Business TV channel to speak that 12000 will come.He never expected that 19500 will come and he repeatedly keep on saying that no way, we can see 14700 and up....14700 was his ultimate upper limit.....what happened to that...
I remember one of the readers ( I think his name was Francis)who wrote me personally that July 10 is going to be the worst ever period and we will be able to buy stocks cheap at the end of the month and that never happened.he wrote me that what will I do when market will tank like 2008?
I have no grudges for anyone.I have even no grudges for those who left visting my blog.I still tell them to visit me again and if put query and I have answer I will reply.
Well, what I am telling and writing on stockmarket and discuss about many other topics like Luck and USA and corruption in India and many other things....I know readers have different view and I respect that....what I want to tell is , no problem if you do not concur with me.....but when one argues with me on that topic and try to make me take view according to him, then the problem arises.....
I am good with my view and one is good with his view, but if someone argues with what I have written and wants me to believe in what he says, then the problem starts.....when you are not ready to believe my view then how one can expect me to believe his view?
We have discussed many things here or rather I have written my view on many subjects like Ramayana , Mahabharat , corruptions, Luck etc etc....whether to believe in that or not is upto readers.Even though there were problems with some readers I have kept the COMMENT section still open.
Anyone can write his view , but shouldn't try to convince me what he believes.If there is any substance in it and if I feel that I missed that point in coming on to the conclusion, I definately agree with it.....but proving me wrong and proving what he says is correct , is no way to convince me....and some readers says that I can't accept any criticism......that is not criticism....that is somegthing else.....
I have seen readers saying "I am not ready to accept critics"but that is not the case.
Keeping the "Comments" section still open and also publishing it for all to read is the testimony of my accepting what my critics has to say ......everyone can read it.....
But when critics says that I should accept what they say, then the problem comes.....Well, nowhere it is written that accepting what one has written to me says that I accept what critics says......
Many a times it happens that critics or a reader do not understand what I am trying to say.They don't understand what I am saying.
I am no genious nor a super natural person to boast that the level I am talking ,readers are not able to understand.I may be wrong totally.
I am not a "Batris Lakshano" person.......U know where this word came from?Ramayana and Mahabharat in which we read that Yudhistir or Bhima or Arjun or Rama or Laxman were Batris Laskhana purus....means there was no truti in them.......There was no fault in them.....one cannot find any fault in their personality........Batrish Laxan means , faultless man......
So, I am not Batris Laxan....I have many faults...I get angry, I gets irritated , I gets restless......all these are not the charecteristic of a super human man.....super human means batris laxan.....
Coming back to market, for some days Mid/small cap were not moving and suddenly they fired on Friday.
Well, there can be a correction of 300 points in Nifty any time as seems the market is heating up but specific stock will keep on outperforming market ......but 5540 -5560 nifty can come anytime.......and after that market will consolidate and then will move up....but I again write....specific stock will outpeform in this period as well.....
I have been writing since long that market has one direction and that is UP.I donno how many had faith in my call but those who put the faith must be very glad to see that sensex is at 19500!
It seems that there is a great fight going on between Bulls and Bears.But remember, Bulls cannot get the support they wants if fundamentals or Micro or Macro factors do not support it.
So supporting Bulls is not without a base.
I remember in May 2009 when the parliament results were out and Congress got the clean majority and the obstacle of Leftist were out, Bulls were able to show a 20% upper circuit in Nifty and Sensex and that was the most glorious day of Indian Stock Market.
Remember, it is not easy to keep the Sensex and Nifty in UC for the whole day.Making one stock in UC for whole day is a difficuly preposition.
Let us take an example.
Say,a Rs 40 price stock is kept at buyer circuits for the whole day.
Now what can happen and what an operator needs to do for that.He has to keep on buying any selling that comes on it way for keeping it on upper circuit.Any selling...means it can be 10k shares or 1 lac shares or 10 shares ......now if a stock remains on buyer circuit then if say, in the first hour of morning trade some 10k shares comes for selling, then one need to have 4 lacs rupees to pay to eat all these selling and suppose by the end of the day, 10 lacs shares has come for selling , then 4 cr rupees is needed to eat all the supply....and then and then only a stock will remain in UC for the whole day.....
Now imagine, keeping Sensex and Nifty in Upper Circuit for 20% for whole day is no childs play.Bears can supply papers from any A gr stocks which has got high liquidity and bears can borrow it from any Institution and sell the stocks .
One can't imagine how much planning and manupalation is needed to do it.It needs all ones acumen, vile and guil to do it.
I donno, as I have seen in past, as soon as market corrects by 1000 points, Mr Bear is on the Business TV channel to speak that 12000 will come.He never expected that 19500 will come and he repeatedly keep on saying that no way, we can see 14700 and up....14700 was his ultimate upper limit.....what happened to that...
I remember one of the readers ( I think his name was Francis)who wrote me personally that July 10 is going to be the worst ever period and we will be able to buy stocks cheap at the end of the month and that never happened.he wrote me that what will I do when market will tank like 2008?
I have no grudges for anyone.I have even no grudges for those who left visting my blog.I still tell them to visit me again and if put query and I have answer I will reply.
Well, what I am telling and writing on stockmarket and discuss about many other topics like Luck and USA and corruption in India and many other things....I know readers have different view and I respect that....what I want to tell is , no problem if you do not concur with me.....but when one argues with me on that topic and try to make me take view according to him, then the problem arises.....
I am good with my view and one is good with his view, but if someone argues with what I have written and wants me to believe in what he says, then the problem starts.....when you are not ready to believe my view then how one can expect me to believe his view?
We have discussed many things here or rather I have written my view on many subjects like Ramayana , Mahabharat , corruptions, Luck etc etc....whether to believe in that or not is upto readers.Even though there were problems with some readers I have kept the COMMENT section still open.
Anyone can write his view , but shouldn't try to convince me what he believes.If there is any substance in it and if I feel that I missed that point in coming on to the conclusion, I definately agree with it.....but proving me wrong and proving what he says is correct , is no way to convince me....and some readers says that I can't accept any criticism......that is not criticism....that is somegthing else.....
I have seen readers saying "I am not ready to accept critics"but that is not the case.
Keeping the "Comments" section still open and also publishing it for all to read is the testimony of my accepting what my critics has to say ......everyone can read it.....
But when critics says that I should accept what they say, then the problem comes.....Well, nowhere it is written that accepting what one has written to me says that I accept what critics says......
Many a times it happens that critics or a reader do not understand what I am trying to say.They don't understand what I am saying.
I am no genious nor a super natural person to boast that the level I am talking ,readers are not able to understand.I may be wrong totally.
I am not a "Batris Lakshano" person.......U know where this word came from?Ramayana and Mahabharat in which we read that Yudhistir or Bhima or Arjun or Rama or Laxman were Batris Laskhana purus....means there was no truti in them.......There was no fault in them.....one cannot find any fault in their personality........Batrish Laxan means , faultless man......
So, I am not Batris Laxan....I have many faults...I get angry, I gets irritated , I gets restless......all these are not the charecteristic of a super human man.....super human means batris laxan.....
Coming back to market, for some days Mid/small cap were not moving and suddenly they fired on Friday.
Well, there can be a correction of 300 points in Nifty any time as seems the market is heating up but specific stock will keep on outperforming market ......but 5540 -5560 nifty can come anytime.......and after that market will consolidate and then will move up....but I again write....specific stock will outpeform in this period as well.....
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
View whole world is waiting for.......
Warren Buffett Still Doesn't Expect 'Double-Dip' Recession:
Published: Monday, 13 Sep 2010
6:58 PM ET
Warren Buffett doesn't appear to be concerned that slowing U.S. economic growth will worsen to become a "double-dip" recession, saying there's no evidence of "sour" sentiment in the latest results from Berkshire Hathaway's numerous operating businesses.
Speaking today by video to the Montana Economic Development Summit, AP quotes him as telling those attending: "I am a huge bull on this country. We are not going to have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back across the board."
Bloomberg has almost the same quote, adding the word 'almost' to make it read, "I see our businesses coming back almost across the board."
It also adds this quote from Buffett
"I’ve seen sentiment turn sour in the last three months or so, generally in the media. I don’t see that in our businesses. I see we’re employing more people than a month ago, two months ago."
Buffett said U.S. banks are now prepared to increase their lending: "It’s night and day from a year, year and a half ago. I know Wells Fargo, they would love to have $50 billion more of loans now. Go in and talk to the banker."
It's not the first time Buffett has rejected suggestions the U.S. economy could again fall into recession in the near future, but today's comments do appear to reflect a more optimistic outlook with no reported mentions of an anemic recovery.
In March of this year, CNBC's Becky Quick asked him if he was worried about a "double-dip." At that time, he said:
"It's a slow recovery. The only thing--I mean, if you had some big exogenous event, I mean if you had something go wrong in the European Union or--I mean, there--if something--a huge terrorist attack, I mean, you can--you can think of things that would cause another jolt to the economy like that jolt we had in September of 2008. But absent something really big from an exogenous nature to the United States, no, I think we will continue moving upward but not at a very fast rate."
As early as September of 2009, Buffett was saying the worst was over for the economy:
BECKY: But is there a risk of a second downturn? Will unemployment levels climb to a point where it becomes a leading indicator rather than a lagging indicator?
BUFFETT: I-- I think the odds are very much against getting significantly worse. It's sort of plateaued at the-- at the bottom right now, but if you got some horrible exogenous event, some-- some, you know, 9/11-- type event or worse-- you know, you could have something that would be dis-- really disruptive and start things all over again. But in terms of problems that we've identified and are working with, we've got more to come. But we're-- we're-- we're past the-- we're past the critical point.
My Comments:
Warren Buffet speaks and I quote: " doesn't appear to be concerned that slowing U.S. economic growth will worsen to become a "double-dip" recession"
and "
"I am a huge bull on this country. We are not going to have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back across the board."
Now what this tells?Is these are not the news that our Indian Bulls got it early?Or is it that WB told them in ear?We have seen a rally of over 500 points in last 2 days.....
I again reiterate, whom we are going to believe?Shankar Sharma, analyst who are bearish on India, Analyst who feel that at this junture India is expensive?
If someone can read my back dated article, I have written many times, when WB is bullish why we need to be bearish?And as much as WB is bullish on USA, world economy can never collapse.
I have written many times that when US dollar is getting better due to Chinese Yuan appre , when Euro has weakened due to PIGS crisis and hence the fear of Euro or Yuan replacing Dollar as international currency, then US can't afford to make the things much wrose for themselves......
and that I have been writing time and again that don't FEAR about PIGS debacle....and see what is happening.Our market is going up and up......and making newer highs......
Friends,
Let me write it again, those who can see the future is always a WINNER.For making huge return on what one has invested, he needs to be able to see how market will pan out.....
Published: Monday, 13 Sep 2010
6:58 PM ET
Warren Buffett doesn't appear to be concerned that slowing U.S. economic growth will worsen to become a "double-dip" recession, saying there's no evidence of "sour" sentiment in the latest results from Berkshire Hathaway's numerous operating businesses.
Speaking today by video to the Montana Economic Development Summit, AP quotes him as telling those attending: "I am a huge bull on this country. We are not going to have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back across the board."
Bloomberg has almost the same quote, adding the word 'almost' to make it read, "I see our businesses coming back almost across the board."
It also adds this quote from Buffett
"I’ve seen sentiment turn sour in the last three months or so, generally in the media. I don’t see that in our businesses. I see we’re employing more people than a month ago, two months ago."
Buffett said U.S. banks are now prepared to increase their lending: "It’s night and day from a year, year and a half ago. I know Wells Fargo, they would love to have $50 billion more of loans now. Go in and talk to the banker."
It's not the first time Buffett has rejected suggestions the U.S. economy could again fall into recession in the near future, but today's comments do appear to reflect a more optimistic outlook with no reported mentions of an anemic recovery.
In March of this year, CNBC's Becky Quick asked him if he was worried about a "double-dip." At that time, he said:
"It's a slow recovery. The only thing--I mean, if you had some big exogenous event, I mean if you had something go wrong in the European Union or--I mean, there--if something--a huge terrorist attack, I mean, you can--you can think of things that would cause another jolt to the economy like that jolt we had in September of 2008. But absent something really big from an exogenous nature to the United States, no, I think we will continue moving upward but not at a very fast rate."
As early as September of 2009, Buffett was saying the worst was over for the economy:
BECKY: But is there a risk of a second downturn? Will unemployment levels climb to a point where it becomes a leading indicator rather than a lagging indicator?
BUFFETT: I-- I think the odds are very much against getting significantly worse. It's sort of plateaued at the-- at the bottom right now, but if you got some horrible exogenous event, some-- some, you know, 9/11-- type event or worse-- you know, you could have something that would be dis-- really disruptive and start things all over again. But in terms of problems that we've identified and are working with, we've got more to come. But we're-- we're-- we're past the-- we're past the critical point.
My Comments:
Warren Buffet speaks and I quote: " doesn't appear to be concerned that slowing U.S. economic growth will worsen to become a "double-dip" recession"
and "
"I am a huge bull on this country. We are not going to have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back across the board."
Now what this tells?Is these are not the news that our Indian Bulls got it early?Or is it that WB told them in ear?We have seen a rally of over 500 points in last 2 days.....
I again reiterate, whom we are going to believe?Shankar Sharma, analyst who are bearish on India, Analyst who feel that at this junture India is expensive?
If someone can read my back dated article, I have written many times, when WB is bullish why we need to be bearish?And as much as WB is bullish on USA, world economy can never collapse.
I have written many times that when US dollar is getting better due to Chinese Yuan appre , when Euro has weakened due to PIGS crisis and hence the fear of Euro or Yuan replacing Dollar as international currency, then US can't afford to make the things much wrose for themselves......
and that I have been writing time and again that don't FEAR about PIGS debacle....and see what is happening.Our market is going up and up......and making newer highs......
Friends,
Let me write it again, those who can see the future is always a WINNER.For making huge return on what one has invested, he needs to be able to see how market will pan out.....
Friends.....
After what has happened with Mayank let me write here what this blog means to all.
I write my picks and readers read it and take decision on their own whether to buy immidiately, buy lateron or skip the call at all.
1)I have readers who has picked almost all call, maybe in small quantity and thus they are in big profit.
2)I have readers who bought SNL,Parekh Aluminex and Cronimet and they are in excellent profit.
3)I have readers like Mayank who bought Sical and ABG and they are in loss, ofcourse in Sical not in ABG.
4)There are readers who are in absoloute loss picking my bad calls like Allied Comp or JCT or XL tele or Gramch Infra.
5)Some readers are there who are still holding stocks which is giving NIL return, like Yash Raj Containeur ,Rathi Steel , Rico Auto etc....
Now these are all possibilites and I think that should be the case as I can assume it...
Now what I will say is those who picked all correct call, they have excellent luck.Those who have average return have medium luck with my call, those who are in No profit No Loss are average lucky and those who are in loss in entirety then I am unlucky for them.
Now asking me for advice that what one should do as what he bought is down , then I think 24 hrs will be also become LESS for me to deal with such situation.
Reemember Ramesh Damani also comes only once a week and that too only for half an hour or at the most one hour on chat.
It will be never be possible for me to answer such question that what I should do with your calls which are giving negative return or not moving up.
I am not an operator.I just give a call after reading news on internet like when I read about BPL Ltd and I immidiately wrote it here so that my readers don't lose the intial rally when the analyst will start giving a call for their PMS.I wants my readers to buy it before anyone buys it or any analyst do research on it and give a call to their own clients whom they get commission and brokerage as well.
I have never tried to delibaretly delay my call so that I can buy or my clients can buy ( I have no clients)and then give it here so that my personal clients can make ST profit and thereby I also get my commission.
Maybe , I have missed to write couple of them but that went out of my mind completely.
So , please please don't ask me what to do with my call which are not moving or are DOWM.That is part and parcel of the game.
I can't give portfolio advice.
I write my picks and readers read it and take decision on their own whether to buy immidiately, buy lateron or skip the call at all.
1)I have readers who has picked almost all call, maybe in small quantity and thus they are in big profit.
2)I have readers who bought SNL,Parekh Aluminex and Cronimet and they are in excellent profit.
3)I have readers like Mayank who bought Sical and ABG and they are in loss, ofcourse in Sical not in ABG.
4)There are readers who are in absoloute loss picking my bad calls like Allied Comp or JCT or XL tele or Gramch Infra.
5)Some readers are there who are still holding stocks which is giving NIL return, like Yash Raj Containeur ,Rathi Steel , Rico Auto etc....
Now these are all possibilites and I think that should be the case as I can assume it...
Now what I will say is those who picked all correct call, they have excellent luck.Those who have average return have medium luck with my call, those who are in No profit No Loss are average lucky and those who are in loss in entirety then I am unlucky for them.
Now asking me for advice that what one should do as what he bought is down , then I think 24 hrs will be also become LESS for me to deal with such situation.
Reemember Ramesh Damani also comes only once a week and that too only for half an hour or at the most one hour on chat.
It will be never be possible for me to answer such question that what I should do with your calls which are giving negative return or not moving up.
I am not an operator.I just give a call after reading news on internet like when I read about BPL Ltd and I immidiately wrote it here so that my readers don't lose the intial rally when the analyst will start giving a call for their PMS.I wants my readers to buy it before anyone buys it or any analyst do research on it and give a call to their own clients whom they get commission and brokerage as well.
I have never tried to delibaretly delay my call so that I can buy or my clients can buy ( I have no clients)and then give it here so that my personal clients can make ST profit and thereby I also get my commission.
Maybe , I have missed to write couple of them but that went out of my mind completely.
So , please please don't ask me what to do with my call which are not moving or are DOWM.That is part and parcel of the game.
I can't give portfolio advice.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Some queries....from a reader...
Friends,
I am giving the answer of Mr Mayankbhai query on the main page so that everyone can read it and understand what is going on what people expects and what actually is happening....
Mr.Mayankbhai said... and I Quote:
Hello Sir,
what about the Sical Logistics and ABG Shipyard, eating all the profit of other +ve calls in my portfolio,, what is your advise, hold or exit ?
September 13, 2010 3:34 PM
Mayankbhai said...
Dear Rajiv Sir,
Could you please comment about ABG Shipyard and Sical Logicstics ..in huge loss , in both these loss making recos.. My question is more about , why I end up taking your pics, which are loss making, and due to that fear, lose picking the winning picks.. Regards
September 13, 2010 5:31 PM
My Reply:
Mr.Mayankbhai ,
I m not able to understtand how ABG and Sical are eating all profits.
If it is so then it means that you have put more weightage on these two then others.That is not my fault.
Other thing is, if you feel that you are making loss then you should immidiately sell them.Its your money and your profit or loss.I am no way responsible for anything.
I gave a call of ABG Shipyard at Rs 255 and now it is Rs 249....where is the LOSS?
Yes,Sical has gone down but not ABG Shipyard....a loss of 6 rupees is eating all your profit of other stocks then I feel you don't neeed to visit my blog or buy what I recomend.
Sical is down but that is part and parcel of game....if you can't digest it I think you need to look somewhere else.
Mayankbhai, Rs 6 loss in ABG Shipyard is eating all your profit of other stocks?I can't believe this. Can anyone come out and explain how this can happen?
To all Readers:
I again reiterate to all my readers, buy only if you are convinced.Do your own due diligence before buying any stock written here.
Whatever I write here is my own analysis and I can prove wrong.I gives new ideas and new views.To accept it or not , is up to you.
Same thing happened with someone who wrote me that in Stride Arcolab he is at loss.But he didn't buy when I recomended and bought at higher price.But still after period of time, it is going up from even his buy price.....and m sure he is now in profit.
I again repeat, if you can't digest the LOSS in stock market, then this is not the place for you.You will lose your sleep and also become unrestful to disturb others ,viz: ur father, mother,brother, sister,wife, children etc......
If you are going to lose your sleep with a small loss , I think then stock market is not for them.
Be ready for entire investment get wiped off.....I have experianced that.My whole investment was wiped off and had a huge debt.But I decicded to fight with it and overcame that and paid all my debts.
Acussing someone for your failure will take you nowhere.Learn from the mistake you have made.If Mayank has made a loss due to me, then that is a mistake of his and what he needs to learn from this is,he should stop following me.....It is very simple RULE.
Where you are making loss, you need to stop that thing doing.....
I donno what Mayank is trying to show.....by writing Loss Making recomendation!
But I would like my readers to comment how Rs 6 loss in ABG Shipyard can erode all profits of Mayank portfolio?
I am giving the answer of Mr Mayankbhai query on the main page so that everyone can read it and understand what is going on what people expects and what actually is happening....
Mr.Mayankbhai said... and I Quote:
Hello Sir,
what about the Sical Logistics and ABG Shipyard, eating all the profit of other +ve calls in my portfolio,, what is your advise, hold or exit ?
September 13, 2010 3:34 PM
Mayankbhai said...
Dear Rajiv Sir,
Could you please comment about ABG Shipyard and Sical Logicstics ..in huge loss , in both these loss making recos.. My question is more about , why I end up taking your pics, which are loss making, and due to that fear, lose picking the winning picks.. Regards
September 13, 2010 5:31 PM
My Reply:
Mr.Mayankbhai ,
I m not able to understtand how ABG and Sical are eating all profits.
If it is so then it means that you have put more weightage on these two then others.That is not my fault.
Other thing is, if you feel that you are making loss then you should immidiately sell them.Its your money and your profit or loss.I am no way responsible for anything.
I gave a call of ABG Shipyard at Rs 255 and now it is Rs 249....where is the LOSS?
Yes,Sical has gone down but not ABG Shipyard....a loss of 6 rupees is eating all your profit of other stocks then I feel you don't neeed to visit my blog or buy what I recomend.
Sical is down but that is part and parcel of game....if you can't digest it I think you need to look somewhere else.
Mayankbhai, Rs 6 loss in ABG Shipyard is eating all your profit of other stocks?I can't believe this. Can anyone come out and explain how this can happen?
To all Readers:
I again reiterate to all my readers, buy only if you are convinced.Do your own due diligence before buying any stock written here.
Whatever I write here is my own analysis and I can prove wrong.I gives new ideas and new views.To accept it or not , is up to you.
Same thing happened with someone who wrote me that in Stride Arcolab he is at loss.But he didn't buy when I recomended and bought at higher price.But still after period of time, it is going up from even his buy price.....and m sure he is now in profit.
I again repeat, if you can't digest the LOSS in stock market, then this is not the place for you.You will lose your sleep and also become unrestful to disturb others ,viz: ur father, mother,brother, sister,wife, children etc......
If you are going to lose your sleep with a small loss , I think then stock market is not for them.
Be ready for entire investment get wiped off.....I have experianced that.My whole investment was wiped off and had a huge debt.But I decicded to fight with it and overcame that and paid all my debts.
Acussing someone for your failure will take you nowhere.Learn from the mistake you have made.If Mayank has made a loss due to me, then that is a mistake of his and what he needs to learn from this is,he should stop following me.....It is very simple RULE.
Where you are making loss, you need to stop that thing doing.....
I donno what Mayank is trying to show.....by writing Loss Making recomendation!
But I would like my readers to comment how Rs 6 loss in ABG Shipyard can erode all profits of Mayank portfolio?
Indo Solar IPO at 29-32 band and 10 paidup.....excellent IPO to apply for....
CRISIL has assigned a CRISIL IPO grade of 3/5 to the proposed initial public offer (IPO) of Indosolar, in its report dated March 18, 2010.
"This grade indicates that the fundamentals of the IPO are average relative to other listed equity securities in India. However, this grade is not an opinion on whether the issue price is appropriate in relation to the issue fundamentals. The grade is not a recommendation to buy/sell or hold the graded instrument, or a comment on the graded instrument’s future market price or its suitability for a particular investor," according to report.
The report says, "The grading assigned reflects CRISIL’s view that the depleting energy reserves and the consensus among various nations to cut emissions and focus on an alternative clean source of energy is positive for the solar industry. The grading also reflects the strong track record of the promoters with respect to their previous technology-intensive venture at Halonix (Earlier Phoenix Lamps). However, the grading is tempered by the fact that the technology for manufacturing SPV (solar photo voltaic) cells is still evolving and, therefore, carries the risk of obsolescence for existing players including Indosolar. The company also has no prior experience in the solar PV cells business and is expected to face competition from large and established players."
"Indosolar is engaged in the manufacturing of SPV cells from crystalline silicon wafers, used for converting sunlight directly into electricity. It is looking at expanding its manufacturing capacity further. Expansion through Line 2 with an annual capacity of 80 MW is under progress and is expected to be commissioned by March 2010. The company has incurred a capital expenditure of Rs 6,670 mn for Line 1 and Line 2, funded through a mix of debt (of Rs 4,600 mn) and equity contribution from the promoters," according to CRISIL report.
The report also says, "The company plans to raise around Rs 4,000 million through the IPO mainly to fund the expansion of Line 3 which would have an annual manufacturing capacity of 100 MW. As on January 5, 2010 the company has a strong order book of 78.08 MW with a contract value of Rs 5,063.9 million."
My Comments:
Crisil has given 3/5.So it is not negative.I have highlighted in blue colors why it is rated low....
But the silverlining here is , it is coming from Enam Sec.The issue is managed by Enam Sec.
Moreover , they have 506 cr order ready to execute.
They are using the funds for expanding the capacities......That is another thing I like....
So anyone interested in Solar Power , then they need to apply for this IPO which is in a very reasonable price band and 10 paidup too....I like it....anything with 10 FV, I have liking....
UPDATE :
In today's Livemint internet edition I read that the latest order book position of Indo Solar is Rs 1011.92 cr as on July 31 2010.That means that they have doubled the order book position in last 6 months.
I also read that PV cells they produce gives high efficiancy of 16.15%.
Webstie:
http://www.indosolar.co.in/
open the link and have a look at the IPO Co which you will be applying for.....better option then XL Tele?Yes, I think so.......
"This grade indicates that the fundamentals of the IPO are average relative to other listed equity securities in India. However, this grade is not an opinion on whether the issue price is appropriate in relation to the issue fundamentals. The grade is not a recommendation to buy/sell or hold the graded instrument, or a comment on the graded instrument’s future market price or its suitability for a particular investor," according to report.
The report says, "The grading assigned reflects CRISIL’s view that the depleting energy reserves and the consensus among various nations to cut emissions and focus on an alternative clean source of energy is positive for the solar industry. The grading also reflects the strong track record of the promoters with respect to their previous technology-intensive venture at Halonix (Earlier Phoenix Lamps). However, the grading is tempered by the fact that the technology for manufacturing SPV (solar photo voltaic) cells is still evolving and, therefore, carries the risk of obsolescence for existing players including Indosolar. The company also has no prior experience in the solar PV cells business and is expected to face competition from large and established players."
"Indosolar is engaged in the manufacturing of SPV cells from crystalline silicon wafers, used for converting sunlight directly into electricity. It is looking at expanding its manufacturing capacity further. Expansion through Line 2 with an annual capacity of 80 MW is under progress and is expected to be commissioned by March 2010. The company has incurred a capital expenditure of Rs 6,670 mn for Line 1 and Line 2, funded through a mix of debt (of Rs 4,600 mn) and equity contribution from the promoters," according to CRISIL report.
The report also says, "The company plans to raise around Rs 4,000 million through the IPO mainly to fund the expansion of Line 3 which would have an annual manufacturing capacity of 100 MW. As on January 5, 2010 the company has a strong order book of 78.08 MW with a contract value of Rs 5,063.9 million."
My Comments:
Crisil has given 3/5.So it is not negative.I have highlighted in blue colors why it is rated low....
But the silverlining here is , it is coming from Enam Sec.The issue is managed by Enam Sec.
Moreover , they have 506 cr order ready to execute.
They are using the funds for expanding the capacities......That is another thing I like....
So anyone interested in Solar Power , then they need to apply for this IPO which is in a very reasonable price band and 10 paidup too....I like it....anything with 10 FV, I have liking....
UPDATE :
In today's Livemint internet edition I read that the latest order book position of Indo Solar is Rs 1011.92 cr as on July 31 2010.That means that they have doubled the order book position in last 6 months.
I also read that PV cells they produce gives high efficiancy of 16.15%.
Webstie:
http://www.indosolar.co.in/
open the link and have a look at the IPO Co which you will be applying for.....better option then XL Tele?Yes, I think so.......
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Jyoti Ltd....cmp...107...My old call....3 bagger..
Friends,
I have been recomending this stock since in 30's and was always in my pick list.
I even wrote a full article on Jyoti Ltd when it was 75 and wrote clearly that even at Rs 75, it looks excellent buy......I donno how many bought it ...but Jyoti Ltd made a 52 week high of Rs 107 on Thrusday and still long way to go.I am sure now as Jyoti Ltd has crossed 100 mark,brokerage and other group will come out and discuss on it....what is the sense in doing it so late?
Parekh Aluminex hit 500 and become a 5 bagger.Jyoti Ltd is already a 3 bagger.Surya Roshni is already a 3 bagger.
SNL Bearing is 10 bagger now and someone wrote that a brokerage inst came out with a buy call at this price for a taregt of 175 ,means it will become a 17 bagger.....and then some FII will enter and it will become a 30 bagger......
The list is long......................
I have been recomending this stock since in 30's and was always in my pick list.
I even wrote a full article on Jyoti Ltd when it was 75 and wrote clearly that even at Rs 75, it looks excellent buy......I donno how many bought it ...but Jyoti Ltd made a 52 week high of Rs 107 on Thrusday and still long way to go.I am sure now as Jyoti Ltd has crossed 100 mark,brokerage and other group will come out and discuss on it....what is the sense in doing it so late?
Parekh Aluminex hit 500 and become a 5 bagger.Jyoti Ltd is already a 3 bagger.Surya Roshni is already a 3 bagger.
SNL Bearing is 10 bagger now and someone wrote that a brokerage inst came out with a buy call at this price for a taregt of 175 ,means it will become a 17 bagger.....and then some FII will enter and it will become a 30 bagger......
The list is long......................
Thursday, September 9, 2010
My call on GPPL on IPO........
Gujarat Pipavav makes a stellar debut, up 22% on BSE
PTI
Mumbai, September 9, 2010
The country's first private-sector port, Gujarat Pipavav Port, which made a stellar listing on the bourses on Thursday, said it expects to clock a 65 per cent growth in container trade in the current financial year.
Earlier in the day, the Denmark-based AP Moller-Maersk Gujarat Pipavav Port (GPPL) made a resounding listing on both the National Stock Exchange and the Bombay Stock Exchange, with the stock listing on BSE at a premium of nearly 22 per cent, at Rs 56, over the issue price of Rs 46.
It listed on the National Stock Exchange at Rs 56.10, a premium of a little over 22 per cent.
In early trade, the stock jumped to a high of Rs 58 a piece. As many as 3.3 lakh shares exchanged hands on the bourses in during the trade.
The company had mopped up Rs 500 crore through an initial public offer in August, to repay debt and fund its expansion activities.
"We are quite happy with the response we got from retail investors. We would be using about Rs 300 crore to repay our loans, Rs 150 crore as capital expenditure," GPPL Managing Director, Prakash Tulshiani, told reporters after the successful listing.
Currently, the company has a debt of Rs 1,075 crore. Of this, about Rs 300 crore will be repaid from the IPO proceeds.
The company's container and bulk cargo trade has grown 64 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, and would continue growing at the same pace, Tulshiani added.
My Comments:
That is an excellent perfomance for GPPL.I gave a call to "go for GPPL" ....and I think it is still a buy at this rate of Rs 56.It may dip from here so buy call is on every Dip.....excellent LT stock....as said by the MD, they will keep on growing at 64 and 35 % ...that is an excellent growth for any Co.....I have already discussed reasons why I like it....so not writing it here again.....
PTI
Mumbai, September 9, 2010
The country's first private-sector port, Gujarat Pipavav Port, which made a stellar listing on the bourses on Thursday, said it expects to clock a 65 per cent growth in container trade in the current financial year.
Earlier in the day, the Denmark-based AP Moller-Maersk Gujarat Pipavav Port (GPPL) made a resounding listing on both the National Stock Exchange and the Bombay Stock Exchange, with the stock listing on BSE at a premium of nearly 22 per cent, at Rs 56, over the issue price of Rs 46.
It listed on the National Stock Exchange at Rs 56.10, a premium of a little over 22 per cent.
In early trade, the stock jumped to a high of Rs 58 a piece. As many as 3.3 lakh shares exchanged hands on the bourses in during the trade.
The company had mopped up Rs 500 crore through an initial public offer in August, to repay debt and fund its expansion activities.
"We are quite happy with the response we got from retail investors. We would be using about Rs 300 crore to repay our loans, Rs 150 crore as capital expenditure," GPPL Managing Director, Prakash Tulshiani, told reporters after the successful listing.
Currently, the company has a debt of Rs 1,075 crore. Of this, about Rs 300 crore will be repaid from the IPO proceeds.
The company's container and bulk cargo trade has grown 64 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively, and would continue growing at the same pace, Tulshiani added.
My Comments:
That is an excellent perfomance for GPPL.I gave a call to "go for GPPL" ....and I think it is still a buy at this rate of Rs 56.It may dip from here so buy call is on every Dip.....excellent LT stock....as said by the MD, they will keep on growing at 64 and 35 % ...that is an excellent growth for any Co.....I have already discussed reasons why I like it....so not writing it here again.....
Mega Soft my call at 23.50 on 25th May 2010......now at Rs 39.45...
9 Sep, 2010, 05.00AM IST, Ranjit Shinde,ET Bureau
Realty exit to help Megasoft cut debt:
The stock of IT company Megasoft has jumped 24% in the past six trading sessions. The sudden run-up follows the company’s decision to sell its real estate assets to pay off a large chunk of its debt. This will help in reducing the interest cost. The company also expects to benefit from the upward trend in prepaid mobile subscription in the US, its biggest market.
Megasoft offers solutions to telecom operators in the US, Latin America and Asia. Prepaid real-time charge management, mobile payment recharging, and mobile advertising are its key areas of operations.
Barring the latest run-up, the company’s stock had a lacklustre time on bourses. During the last one year, it has more or less underperformed the ET Infotech index. The lack of investor interest is on account of the dull performance by the company over the past few quarters.
As a niche player in the telecom market, its fortunes suffered due to poor show by telecom operators in the US in the last year. It had reported a net loss in each of the three quarters ended December 2009 on the back of sluggish sequential revenue growth.
The bad phase now seems to be over for Megasoft. The telecom players are showing signs of recovery globally. Further, in the US market, telecom subscribers are fast adopting prepaid option in order to control their telecom spends. Various surveys indicate that the proportion of prepaid users is expected to more than double from the current 10% in next two years. This augurs well for Megasoft which provides prepaid solutions.
More than 95% of Megasoft’s revenue is transaction based in nature. This means, higher the number of transactions, higher would be the quantum of business. Thus the rising prepaid trend in the US telecom market is likely to boost Megasoft’s future revenue.
The company is planning to sell its property in Hyderabad and Vizag. Considering the property prices in these regions of Andhra Pradesh, Megasoft hopes to mop around `70 crore from this transaction. It plans to deploy the cash to pay its long-term debt. Over the past few years, the company has used operating cash to reduce its debt. The property sale should help it pay a major chunk of the outstanding debt of `90 crore. This will also result into substantial reduction of its borrowing cost, which stands at 10% currently.
The company posted net loss in the past 12 months. This renders an equity valuation based on price-earnings ratio useless. Going ahead, it expects to maintain the revenue growth rate of 30% year-on-year at an operating margin of around 30%. This looks possible given the higher potential from the US market and reduction in debt burden once it sells properties.
My Comments:
I have pasted the text of what Mitul gave the link so that readers get updated with what is happeneing at this counter.Thanks, Mitul.....keep doing that...
Restructuring has started taking place and I see Mega Soft getting rerated any time soon.Excellent stock to keep for LT.I have already discussed why I like Mega Soft when I gave the call.It has already given 70% return and lot of steam still left....It is still a buy .....
Realty exit to help Megasoft cut debt:
The stock of IT company Megasoft has jumped 24% in the past six trading sessions. The sudden run-up follows the company’s decision to sell its real estate assets to pay off a large chunk of its debt. This will help in reducing the interest cost. The company also expects to benefit from the upward trend in prepaid mobile subscription in the US, its biggest market.
Megasoft offers solutions to telecom operators in the US, Latin America and Asia. Prepaid real-time charge management, mobile payment recharging, and mobile advertising are its key areas of operations.
Barring the latest run-up, the company’s stock had a lacklustre time on bourses. During the last one year, it has more or less underperformed the ET Infotech index. The lack of investor interest is on account of the dull performance by the company over the past few quarters.
As a niche player in the telecom market, its fortunes suffered due to poor show by telecom operators in the US in the last year. It had reported a net loss in each of the three quarters ended December 2009 on the back of sluggish sequential revenue growth.
The bad phase now seems to be over for Megasoft. The telecom players are showing signs of recovery globally. Further, in the US market, telecom subscribers are fast adopting prepaid option in order to control their telecom spends. Various surveys indicate that the proportion of prepaid users is expected to more than double from the current 10% in next two years. This augurs well for Megasoft which provides prepaid solutions.
More than 95% of Megasoft’s revenue is transaction based in nature. This means, higher the number of transactions, higher would be the quantum of business. Thus the rising prepaid trend in the US telecom market is likely to boost Megasoft’s future revenue.
The company is planning to sell its property in Hyderabad and Vizag. Considering the property prices in these regions of Andhra Pradesh, Megasoft hopes to mop around `70 crore from this transaction. It plans to deploy the cash to pay its long-term debt. Over the past few years, the company has used operating cash to reduce its debt. The property sale should help it pay a major chunk of the outstanding debt of `90 crore. This will also result into substantial reduction of its borrowing cost, which stands at 10% currently.
The company posted net loss in the past 12 months. This renders an equity valuation based on price-earnings ratio useless. Going ahead, it expects to maintain the revenue growth rate of 30% year-on-year at an operating margin of around 30%. This looks possible given the higher potential from the US market and reduction in debt burden once it sells properties.
My Comments:
I have pasted the text of what Mitul gave the link so that readers get updated with what is happeneing at this counter.Thanks, Mitul.....keep doing that...
Restructuring has started taking place and I see Mega Soft getting rerated any time soon.Excellent stock to keep for LT.I have already discussed why I like Mega Soft when I gave the call.It has already given 70% return and lot of steam still left....It is still a buy .....
Sunday, September 5, 2010
BPL Ltd...CMP: Rs.35.95...is making a come back...
Friends,
I read two news at one internet site which says that BPLLtd management wants to turn it around.....
First I am pasting those news so that one can read and understand what they are upto:
1) BPL's Traditional Biz Rights Lands Up With Start-Up Firm:
Ex-BPL exec Ricky Gosain's Reach Distributors has five-year rights to use the brand in seven categories including CTVs.
BPL Ltd has struck a deal giving the rights to use brand BPL, across seven categories in consumer electrnonics and durables including colour televisions, to Bangalore-based Reach Distributors India Pvt Ltd in return for royalty payment.
The five-year arrangement, running until FY14, is part of BPL's strategy to look beyond its traditional business, and focus its resources on three future markets identified in healthcare, energy and smart homes - a strategy put in place months ago to reinvent itself.
BPL, which once ruled India's fragmented colour television industry with over 25% market share, lost leadership to the rampaging chaebols like LG and Samsung who dominate the market currently.
Interestingly, Reach India's promoter group is headed by Ricky Gosain, who was a senior executive with BPL in the past. Sources directly familiar with the development said, the start-up distribution house would take BPL to the semi-urban and rural markets initially, and would tap the urban centres only after building a critical size.
Reach would be positioning BPL at a price between Videocon and LG, and could target revenue of Rs 200-300 crore by FY14, sources added. It would be sourcing products from vendors both in India as well as China.
BPL Chairman & Managing Director Ajit Nambiar's office sought more time to respond to an email sent on Thursday last week. However, a senior official involved in the royalty deal with Reach confirmed the development.
The share prices of BPL Ltd closed at Rs 35.40 today, down by nearly 1%.
It is not clear who are the other shareholders of Reach India, and if any member of the TPG Nambiar family, which controls BPL, are shareholders in their personal capacity. One source said, Reach was fully funded for the time being, but could explore growth capital fundraising next year.
The development, sources said, stemmed from BPL's decision not to play in the mainstream consumer durables market directly. BPL is in the midst of creating a new brand identity - 'Happier Living Everyday' - in healthcare, energy and smart home sectors. BPL promoters have stayed away from investing behind the consumer electronics business since its equal joint venture with Japan's Sanyo Electric wound up.
In 2006, Sanyo was saved from bankruptcy by Goldman sachs, Daiwa Securities and Sumitomo Mitsui which went on to control 70% stake in the Japanese conglomerate. After protracted discussions, a bigger rival Panasonic decided to acquire Sanyo, a process which was completed in July this year.
Reach would be hoping to leverage on BPL's residual brand equity, especially in the southern markets. BPL was the leading brand in colour television besides having respectable market shares in refrigerator and washing machines through the 90s. However, playing in the cut throat consumer electronics and durables space require strong cash flows and equity backing, especially when placing a bet on the latent equity of a yesteryear brand.
The total size of consumer durables and electronic industry is around Rs 30,000 crore, according to Consumer Electronics and Appliances Manufacturers Association (CEAMA), and the consumer durables market is growing at 30%. More than a majority of the market continues to be dominated by South Korean and Japanese players like LG, Samsung, Sony and Panasonic.
The Indian presence in the market is flagged by Videocon and Onida, which once challenged BPL. Rising income levels, double-income families, increasing consumer awareness and penetration into the rural markets are helping this sector grow.
2) New Innings: BPL Scripts Comeback With Rs 2050Cr Rev By FY14:
August 30 2010, 16:44:51 IST
BOBY KURIAN
Focus on healthcare, energy & smart homes as blockbuster yesteryear brand spins 'Happier Living Everyday' story.
Ajit Nambiar, the scion of BPL Ltd, is re-inventing himself, and the business he inherited. When he helmed BPL, which his father established back in the 60s, the brand was a dominant force in India's consumer electronics industry, especially in colour televisions. Then, the chaebols arrived at his doors. The Korean brands LG and Samsung stormed the market at a time when BPL was caught in a liquidity whirlpool following its ambitious diversification and heavy investments made in manufacturing.
The brand soon disappeared from the metros and the top cities, with its partner Sanyo's travails in Japan adding to the woes. Sanyo shut its Indian operations rather quietly when it was being sold to Panasonic globally, in 2008. BPL and its founding TPG Nambiar family went into business oblivion thereafter.
Last year, in October, Ajit Nambiar shifted BPL's operational headquarters from Dynamic House, located at the heart of Bangalore's business district, to the city's outskirts near Bannarghetta. And he soon unveiled an internal business strategy aimed at overhauling BPL. It has two parts. First, it involved jettisoning any direct revival plans in the mainstream consumer electronics space, and giving up on manufacturing story as the key differentiator (a belief that Nambiars held on tightly for forty long years).
Secondly, he along with a core team of advisors embarked on re-shaping business portfolio searching for potential future markets that can be leveraged on BPL's strengths. They looked hard at businesses and started transitioning. What emerged was a new storyboard, a fresh theme, and a new positioning (in the making) for brand BPL.
Nambiar wrote in an internal dossier earlier this year: "The world has changed beyond recognition from the time BPL came into being four decades ago. We have to therefore change the way we look at the world around us and how we conduct our business in it. The new age Indians have aspirations for a happier, healthier and a more secure life. Our purpose lies in helping people fulfill these simple dreams - Happier Living Everyday. To us happier living means improving the quality of peoples lives through focusing on their health, their comfort, their security and their enjoyment. Our business focus today is on three sectors - healthcare, energy and smart homes."
They are together projected to bring in Rs 2050 crore revenue by FY14. Energy generation and management solutions will bring around Rs 1,465 crore, while healthcare management solutions will show up with Rs 425 crore and smart home solutions will be Rs 60 crore.
The energy business will operate in two domains - power generating assets and energy efficient solutions. BPL Power Projects (AP) Private Ltd is implementing the flagship 600MW project at Ramagundam in Andhra Pradesh. Interestingly, this project has been given a fresh lease of life by the AP State Government and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government at the Centre after the company missed several deadlines to achieve financial closure. Bharat Energy Ventures, another group firm, has signed up MoU with Chhatisgarh State Government for 300MW power project. The revenue from these projects, especially Ramagundam, is expected to start flowing by late FY13 and touch Rs 950 crore by FY14.
Two group companies BPL Telecom Private Ltd and BPL Techno Vision Pvt Ltd will play in energy management solutions for "always-on" energy in the digital information age. The first one will be working with power utilities to reduce transmission and distribution losses, essentially creating a smart grid that is fast healing, more efficient and operates increasingly like today's Internet. BPL Techno Vision will be focused on rechargeable lighting products, solar lanterns, LED lighting systems and studylites. Revenue from the two entities could be crossing Rs 515 crore by FY14 from Rs 147 crore in FY10.
Healthcare Management Solutions under BPL Ltd has evolved from the group's traditional presence in the medical electronics business. With revenue of Rs 108 crore in FY10, it provides innovative products and solutions - like patient monitoring systems, electrocardiographs, defibrillators, foetal monitors and point of care equipment - for early detection of diseases at affordable cost.
Smart Home Solutions, also parked with BPL Ltd, is seen as the more futuristic of all the three businesses. It will tap the emerging opportunity for home energy management systems, home security systems, home network systems and home entertainment systems through a slew of products. BPL has made a beginning here with a portfolio of home security and comfort products that brought in Rs 3 crore in FY10.
Nambiar believes brand BPL can take upon the task of building 'Happier Living Everyday' leveraging on its core strength of applying technology. The task is challenging, as in his own words, the world has changed dramatically from the days when BPL rather optimistically claimed 'Believe In The Best'. Does anyone remember BPL Oye! that brought Amitabh Bachchan to television for the first time in the early 90s?
If four decades of highs and lows in business life has convinced the Nambiar household of anything, it is probably the need to be nimble-footed and agile in thinking. In hindsight, BPL spent some of India's best growth years in rediscovering itself.
My Analysis:
Well, It seems that management wants to bring back the lost glory back.BPL Ltd was a blue chip Co in 90's.
How it went back and become a lagagared is already written in the above article.
But what catches my eyes is , management says that they wants to make it a 2050 cr Co by 2014! That is huge......the Mcap now is 174 cr and if the Co becomes a 2050 cr Co by 2014 then we are going to see BPL Ltd becoming a huge huge multibagger by 2014.
Well, it will all depends on how the things will fall in place and needs to be on constant vigil on BPL Ltd if someone wants to invest BIG in it..because at 174 cr Mcap and becoming a 2050 cr Co , means,it can be atleast a ten bagger from here on.........
Well, I feel that one can take a small exposer in BPL Ltd now and keep on adding as news unfolds....that should be the strategy...but one should follow what is good for them....
Well, as I use to write many times....I do not know anything about statistics( Cash flow/RONW , Debt ratio, etc etc) but I am good at analysing things correctly and quickly....and I read a lot and pick the finer prints written quickly...I am able to read between the lines...I may prove wrong and I may prove right ........but untill one do not come on any conclusion , one never knows whether you were right or wrong.....and stock market is taking decision.....picking stocks at very early stage...that is very important in stock market and that is what I am doing here.Bringing undiscovered stocks to small investor and that too cheap.....picking them up before someone pick it up or identify it ,we become first to take a stake........
What I want to suggest is, become sharp.Become vigil.No news on stock needs to go unnoticed.One need to have passion in what you are doing.When one is investing your hard earned money in stocks then one need to search everything on where you have invested and needs to be updated on it .......
I read two news at one internet site which says that BPLLtd management wants to turn it around.....
First I am pasting those news so that one can read and understand what they are upto:
1) BPL's Traditional Biz Rights Lands Up With Start-Up Firm:
Ex-BPL exec Ricky Gosain's Reach Distributors has five-year rights to use the brand in seven categories including CTVs.
BPL Ltd has struck a deal giving the rights to use brand BPL, across seven categories in consumer electrnonics and durables including colour televisions, to Bangalore-based Reach Distributors India Pvt Ltd in return for royalty payment.
The five-year arrangement, running until FY14, is part of BPL's strategy to look beyond its traditional business, and focus its resources on three future markets identified in healthcare, energy and smart homes - a strategy put in place months ago to reinvent itself.
BPL, which once ruled India's fragmented colour television industry with over 25% market share, lost leadership to the rampaging chaebols like LG and Samsung who dominate the market currently.
Interestingly, Reach India's promoter group is headed by Ricky Gosain, who was a senior executive with BPL in the past. Sources directly familiar with the development said, the start-up distribution house would take BPL to the semi-urban and rural markets initially, and would tap the urban centres only after building a critical size.
Reach would be positioning BPL at a price between Videocon and LG, and could target revenue of Rs 200-300 crore by FY14, sources added. It would be sourcing products from vendors both in India as well as China.
BPL Chairman & Managing Director Ajit Nambiar's office sought more time to respond to an email sent on Thursday last week. However, a senior official involved in the royalty deal with Reach confirmed the development.
The share prices of BPL Ltd closed at Rs 35.40 today, down by nearly 1%.
It is not clear who are the other shareholders of Reach India, and if any member of the TPG Nambiar family, which controls BPL, are shareholders in their personal capacity. One source said, Reach was fully funded for the time being, but could explore growth capital fundraising next year.
The development, sources said, stemmed from BPL's decision not to play in the mainstream consumer durables market directly. BPL is in the midst of creating a new brand identity - 'Happier Living Everyday' - in healthcare, energy and smart home sectors. BPL promoters have stayed away from investing behind the consumer electronics business since its equal joint venture with Japan's Sanyo Electric wound up.
In 2006, Sanyo was saved from bankruptcy by Goldman sachs, Daiwa Securities and Sumitomo Mitsui which went on to control 70% stake in the Japanese conglomerate. After protracted discussions, a bigger rival Panasonic decided to acquire Sanyo, a process which was completed in July this year.
Reach would be hoping to leverage on BPL's residual brand equity, especially in the southern markets. BPL was the leading brand in colour television besides having respectable market shares in refrigerator and washing machines through the 90s. However, playing in the cut throat consumer electronics and durables space require strong cash flows and equity backing, especially when placing a bet on the latent equity of a yesteryear brand.
The total size of consumer durables and electronic industry is around Rs 30,000 crore, according to Consumer Electronics and Appliances Manufacturers Association (CEAMA), and the consumer durables market is growing at 30%. More than a majority of the market continues to be dominated by South Korean and Japanese players like LG, Samsung, Sony and Panasonic.
The Indian presence in the market is flagged by Videocon and Onida, which once challenged BPL. Rising income levels, double-income families, increasing consumer awareness and penetration into the rural markets are helping this sector grow.
2) New Innings: BPL Scripts Comeback With Rs 2050Cr Rev By FY14:
August 30 2010, 16:44:51 IST
BOBY KURIAN
Focus on healthcare, energy & smart homes as blockbuster yesteryear brand spins 'Happier Living Everyday' story.
Ajit Nambiar, the scion of BPL Ltd, is re-inventing himself, and the business he inherited. When he helmed BPL, which his father established back in the 60s, the brand was a dominant force in India's consumer electronics industry, especially in colour televisions. Then, the chaebols arrived at his doors. The Korean brands LG and Samsung stormed the market at a time when BPL was caught in a liquidity whirlpool following its ambitious diversification and heavy investments made in manufacturing.
The brand soon disappeared from the metros and the top cities, with its partner Sanyo's travails in Japan adding to the woes. Sanyo shut its Indian operations rather quietly when it was being sold to Panasonic globally, in 2008. BPL and its founding TPG Nambiar family went into business oblivion thereafter.
Last year, in October, Ajit Nambiar shifted BPL's operational headquarters from Dynamic House, located at the heart of Bangalore's business district, to the city's outskirts near Bannarghetta. And he soon unveiled an internal business strategy aimed at overhauling BPL. It has two parts. First, it involved jettisoning any direct revival plans in the mainstream consumer electronics space, and giving up on manufacturing story as the key differentiator (a belief that Nambiars held on tightly for forty long years).
Secondly, he along with a core team of advisors embarked on re-shaping business portfolio searching for potential future markets that can be leveraged on BPL's strengths. They looked hard at businesses and started transitioning. What emerged was a new storyboard, a fresh theme, and a new positioning (in the making) for brand BPL.
Nambiar wrote in an internal dossier earlier this year: "The world has changed beyond recognition from the time BPL came into being four decades ago. We have to therefore change the way we look at the world around us and how we conduct our business in it. The new age Indians have aspirations for a happier, healthier and a more secure life. Our purpose lies in helping people fulfill these simple dreams - Happier Living Everyday. To us happier living means improving the quality of peoples lives through focusing on their health, their comfort, their security and their enjoyment. Our business focus today is on three sectors - healthcare, energy and smart homes."
They are together projected to bring in Rs 2050 crore revenue by FY14. Energy generation and management solutions will bring around Rs 1,465 crore, while healthcare management solutions will show up with Rs 425 crore and smart home solutions will be Rs 60 crore.
The energy business will operate in two domains - power generating assets and energy efficient solutions. BPL Power Projects (AP) Private Ltd is implementing the flagship 600MW project at Ramagundam in Andhra Pradesh. Interestingly, this project has been given a fresh lease of life by the AP State Government and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government at the Centre after the company missed several deadlines to achieve financial closure. Bharat Energy Ventures, another group firm, has signed up MoU with Chhatisgarh State Government for 300MW power project. The revenue from these projects, especially Ramagundam, is expected to start flowing by late FY13 and touch Rs 950 crore by FY14.
Two group companies BPL Telecom Private Ltd and BPL Techno Vision Pvt Ltd will play in energy management solutions for "always-on" energy in the digital information age. The first one will be working with power utilities to reduce transmission and distribution losses, essentially creating a smart grid that is fast healing, more efficient and operates increasingly like today's Internet. BPL Techno Vision will be focused on rechargeable lighting products, solar lanterns, LED lighting systems and studylites. Revenue from the two entities could be crossing Rs 515 crore by FY14 from Rs 147 crore in FY10.
Healthcare Management Solutions under BPL Ltd has evolved from the group's traditional presence in the medical electronics business. With revenue of Rs 108 crore in FY10, it provides innovative products and solutions - like patient monitoring systems, electrocardiographs, defibrillators, foetal monitors and point of care equipment - for early detection of diseases at affordable cost.
Smart Home Solutions, also parked with BPL Ltd, is seen as the more futuristic of all the three businesses. It will tap the emerging opportunity for home energy management systems, home security systems, home network systems and home entertainment systems through a slew of products. BPL has made a beginning here with a portfolio of home security and comfort products that brought in Rs 3 crore in FY10.
Nambiar believes brand BPL can take upon the task of building 'Happier Living Everyday' leveraging on its core strength of applying technology. The task is challenging, as in his own words, the world has changed dramatically from the days when BPL rather optimistically claimed 'Believe In The Best'. Does anyone remember BPL Oye! that brought Amitabh Bachchan to television for the first time in the early 90s?
If four decades of highs and lows in business life has convinced the Nambiar household of anything, it is probably the need to be nimble-footed and agile in thinking. In hindsight, BPL spent some of India's best growth years in rediscovering itself.
My Analysis:
Well, It seems that management wants to bring back the lost glory back.BPL Ltd was a blue chip Co in 90's.
How it went back and become a lagagared is already written in the above article.
But what catches my eyes is , management says that they wants to make it a 2050 cr Co by 2014! That is huge......the Mcap now is 174 cr and if the Co becomes a 2050 cr Co by 2014 then we are going to see BPL Ltd becoming a huge huge multibagger by 2014.
Well, it will all depends on how the things will fall in place and needs to be on constant vigil on BPL Ltd if someone wants to invest BIG in it..because at 174 cr Mcap and becoming a 2050 cr Co , means,it can be atleast a ten bagger from here on.........
Well, I feel that one can take a small exposer in BPL Ltd now and keep on adding as news unfolds....that should be the strategy...but one should follow what is good for them....
Well, as I use to write many times....I do not know anything about statistics( Cash flow/RONW , Debt ratio, etc etc) but I am good at analysing things correctly and quickly....and I read a lot and pick the finer prints written quickly...I am able to read between the lines...I may prove wrong and I may prove right ........but untill one do not come on any conclusion , one never knows whether you were right or wrong.....and stock market is taking decision.....picking stocks at very early stage...that is very important in stock market and that is what I am doing here.Bringing undiscovered stocks to small investor and that too cheap.....picking them up before someone pick it up or identify it ,we become first to take a stake........
What I want to suggest is, become sharp.Become vigil.No news on stock needs to go unnoticed.One need to have passion in what you are doing.When one is investing your hard earned money in stocks then one need to search everything on where you have invested and needs to be updated on it .......
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)