Wednesday, September 15, 2010

View whole world is waiting for.......

Warren Buffett Still Doesn't Expect 'Double-Dip' Recession:
Published: Monday, 13 Sep 2010

6:58 PM ET
Warren Buffett doesn't appear to be concerned that slowing U.S. economic growth will worsen to become a "double-dip" recession, saying there's no evidence of "sour" sentiment in the latest results from Berkshire Hathaway's numerous operating businesses.

Speaking today by video to the Montana Economic Development Summit, AP quotes him as telling those attending: "I am a huge bull on this country. We are not going to have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back across the board."
Bloomberg has almost the same quote, adding the word 'almost' to make it read, "I see our businesses coming back almost across the board."

It also adds this quote from Buffett

"I’ve seen sentiment turn sour in the last three months or so, generally in the media. I don’t see that in our businesses. I see we’re employing more people than a month ago, two months ago."
Buffett said U.S. banks are now prepared to increase their lending: "It’s night and day from a year, year and a half ago. I know Wells Fargo, they would love to have $50 billion more of loans now. Go in and talk to the banker."
It's not the first time Buffett has rejected suggestions the U.S. economy could again fall into recession in the near future, but today's comments do appear to reflect a more optimistic outlook with no reported mentions of an anemic recovery.

In March of this year, CNBC's Becky Quick asked him if he was worried about a "double-dip." At that time, he said:
"It's a slow recovery. The only thing--I mean, if you had some big exogenous event, I mean if you had something go wrong in the European Union or--I mean, there--if something--a huge terrorist attack, I mean, you can--you can think of things that would cause another jolt to the economy like that jolt we had in September of 2008. But absent something really big from an exogenous nature to the United States, no, I think we will continue moving upward but not at a very fast rate."
As early as September of 2009, Buffett was saying the worst was over for the economy:
BECKY: But is there a risk of a second downturn? Will unemployment levels climb to a point where it becomes a leading indicator rather than a lagging indicator?
BUFFETT: I-- I think the odds are very much against getting significantly worse. It's sort of plateaued at the-- at the bottom right now, but if you got some horrible exogenous event, some-- some, you know, 9/11-- type event or worse-- you know, you could have something that would be dis-- really disruptive and start things all over again. But in terms of problems that we've identified and are working with, we've got more to come. But we're-- we're-- we're past the-- we're past the critical point.
My Comments:
Warren Buffet speaks and I quote: " doesn't appear to be concerned that slowing U.S. economic growth will worsen to become a "double-dip" recession"
and "
"I am a huge bull on this country. We are not going to have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back across the board."

Now what this tells?Is these are not the news that our Indian Bulls got it early?Or is it that WB told them in ear?We have seen a rally of over 500 points in last 2 days.....
I again reiterate, whom we are going to believe?Shankar Sharma, analyst who are bearish on India, Analyst who feel that at this junture India is expensive?
If someone can read my back dated article, I have written many times, when WB is bullish why we need to be bearish?And as much as WB is bullish on USA, world economy can never collapse.
I have written many times that when US dollar is getting better due to Chinese Yuan appre , when Euro has weakened due to PIGS crisis and hence the fear of Euro or Yuan replacing Dollar as international currency, then US can't afford to make the things much wrose for themselves......
and that I have been writing time and again that don't FEAR about PIGS debacle....and see what is happening.Our market is going up and up......and making newer highs......

Let me write it again, those who can see the future is always a WINNER.For making huge return on what one has invested, he needs to be able to see how market will pan out.....


  1. Rajeev,

    How do you see Hindalco at this level, I read in BS that it is going for expansion in a big way.

  2. wilson,
    I do not track Hindalco, so no view..

  3. WASHINGTON: Even as India continued to register one of the highest growth rates post-independence, rampant corruption resulted in an estimated illicit out flow of a whooping USD 125 billion between 2000 and 2008; a research and advocacy organisation has said.

    The figures of USD 125 billion illicit outflow of money from India are part of a report to be released by the Washington-based Global Financial Integrity later this year.

    "Much of the funds flowing out are generated at home within India and then sent illegally abroad. So the growth of corruption and India's underground economy contributes significantly to illicit financial flows from the country," said Karly Curcio, a junior economist at the Global Financial Integrity in a blog posted on its website.

    "India's economic boom continues with an average growth rate of over eight per cent between 2004 and 2009 by GFI calculations," it said.

    "As the money flows, however, the poor continue to stay poor. Corruption is rampant in India as it is in almost all developing countries. Both corrupt political and corporate officers manage to siphon off funds - intended to aid the people of India - off to political and private sector elite. Recent efforts in India to challenge this corrupt affront on humanity have been met with severe violence," the blog said.

    As India develops economically and builds better infrastructure, one would think that all Indian citizens would see an increased standard of living and that the income inequality levels would fall, he noted.

    "However, the Gini coefficient, which measures income inequality, has actually increased over the time period measured, 2000-2005, from 0.32 to 0.37 on a scale of 0 to 1, with 1 being the highest income inequality," the author said.

    "We see in India - as in other currently developing countries - that as the economy grows, so do illicit flows. This positive correlation exhibits the increased incentives to conduct illicit flows, mostly because more money is flowing within the system to steal away and constant greed is tapping into that pool," Curcio said.

    Noting that India Ranks 84 out of 180 countries in Transparency International's 2009 Corruption Perceptions Index, the author said as corruption continues to plague both the country and its ability to develop free and fair institutions to monitor and charge corrupt officials, the majority of India's economic growth will never make it to the people of India who desperately need it the most.

    Read more: India lost over USD 125bn in illicit outflows between 2000-08 - The Times of India

  4. Rajeev Bhai..
    I remember you had touched upon tele shopping and portal

    Biyani set to buy shopping portal Chaupaati Bazaar

    NEW DELHI: In keeping with the company’s strategy to garner a greater percentage of sales from virtual shopping, Kishore Biyani’s Future Group is close to acquiring online and telephone shopping portal Chaupaati Bazaar, according to a person familiar with the development.

    Future Ecommerce will acquire Chaupaati Bazaar in an all-stock transaction. The deal value is unknown. Chaupati Bazaar operates the web portal and pegs itself as “India’s phone bazaar”. Customers can place orders on the phone and can also make credit card payments through an interactive voice response system. The company is two years old and claims to serve 150 cities in India. The company has worked with the Future Bazaar team on various projects in the past.

    Future Group, India’s largest retail company with more than `8,700 crore in annual sales, has set for itself the target that sales from non-physical stores should be at least 10% of the group’s sales. “Most people in urban areas spend 8 to 10 hours in a day on one of the four screens we are targetting. This translates into huge sales potential,” Mr Biyani told ET in May.

    The acquisition of Chaupaati Bazaar will give a boost to the group’s efforts in shopping on the telephone, a service infrastructure that will come handy even in teleshopping. Chaupaati Bazaar will integrate into the Future Bazaar team, and the company’s founder and CEO, Kashyap Deorah, will function as the head of phone commerce at Future Group.

    “I cannot comment at this time,” Deorah wrote in response to an email seeking comment. A future Group spokesperson also declined comment.


  5. Rajeevji,
    I sold my holdings in Aban Punj lloyd and HDIL at a loss as I was holding them for a more than 3 years. Which Oil marketing company or ONGC For long term - 2 to 3 years time or Natural Gas sectors or Specific stock do you recommend

  6. ur take on vijayshani builders huge upside seen from current level

  7. Doc,
    I have already said that Vijay Shanti looks good....