Saturday, September 18, 2010

Sensex crosses...........19k..........

I have been writing since long that market has one direction and that is UP.I donno how many had faith in my call but those who put the faith must be very glad to see that sensex is at 19500!
It seems that there is a great fight going on between Bulls and Bears.But remember, Bulls cannot get the support they wants if fundamentals or Micro or Macro factors do not support it.
So supporting Bulls is not without a base.
I remember in May 2009 when the parliament results were out and Congress got the clean majority and the obstacle of Leftist were out, Bulls were able to show a 20% upper circuit in Nifty and Sensex and that was the most glorious day of Indian Stock Market.
Remember, it is not easy to keep the Sensex and Nifty in UC for the whole day.Making one stock in UC for whole day is a difficuly preposition.
Let us take an example.
Say,a Rs 40 price stock is kept at buyer circuits for the whole day.
Now what can happen and what an operator needs to do for that.He has to keep on buying any selling that comes on it way for keeping it on upper circuit.Any selling...means it can be 10k shares or 1 lac shares or 10 shares if a stock remains on buyer circuit then if say, in the first hour of morning trade some 10k shares comes for selling, then one need to have 4 lacs rupees to pay to eat all these selling and suppose by the end of the day, 10 lacs shares has come for selling , then 4 cr rupees is needed to eat all the supply....and then and then only a stock will remain in UC for the whole day.....
Now imagine, keeping Sensex and Nifty in Upper Circuit  for 20% for whole day is no childs play.Bears can supply papers from any A gr stocks which has got high liquidity and bears can borrow it from any Institution and sell the stocks .
One can't imagine how much planning and manupalation is needed to do it.It needs all ones acumen, vile and guil to do it.
I donno, as I have seen in past, as soon as market corrects by 1000 points, Mr Bear is on the Business TV channel to speak that 12000 will come.He never expected that 19500 will come and he repeatedly keep on saying that no way, we can see 14700 and up....14700 was his ultimate upper limit.....what happened to that...
I remember one of the readers ( I think his name was Francis)who wrote me personally that July 10 is going to be the worst ever period and we will be able to buy stocks cheap at the end of the month and that never happened.he wrote me that what will I do when market will tank like 2008?
I have no grudges for anyone.I have even no grudges for those who left visting my blog.I still tell them to visit me again and if put query and I have answer I will reply.
Well, what I am telling and writing on stockmarket and discuss about many other topics like Luck and USA and corruption in India and many other things....I know readers have different view and I respect that....what I want to tell is , no problem if you do not concur with me.....but when one argues with me on that topic and try to make me take view according to him, then the problem arises.....
I am good with my view and one is good with his view, but if someone argues with what I have written and wants me to believe in what he says, then the problem starts.....when you are not ready to believe my view then how one can expect me to believe his view?
We have discussed many things here or rather I have written my view on many subjects like Ramayana , Mahabharat , corruptions, Luck etc etc....whether to believe in that or not is upto readers.Even though there were problems with some readers I have kept the COMMENT section still open.
Anyone can write his view , but shouldn't try to convince me what he believes.If there is any substance in it and if I feel that I missed that point in coming on to the conclusion, I definately agree with it.....but proving me wrong and proving what he says is correct , is no way to convince me....and some readers says that I can't accept any criticism......that is not criticism....that is somegthing else.....
I have seen readers saying "I am not ready to accept critics"but that is not the case.
Keeping the "Comments" section still open and also publishing  it for all to read is the testimony of my accepting what my critics has to say ......everyone can read it.....
But when critics says that I should accept what they say, then the problem comes.....Well, nowhere it is written that accepting what one has written to me says that I accept what critics says......
Many a times it happens that critics or a reader do not understand what I am trying to say.They don't understand what I am saying.
I am no genious nor a super natural person to boast that the level I am talking ,readers are not able to understand.I may be wrong totally.
I am not a "Batris Lakshano" person.......U know  where this word came from?Ramayana and Mahabharat in  which we read that Yudhistir or Bhima or Arjun or Rama or Laxman were Batris Laskhana purus....means there was no truti in them.......There was no fault in cannot find any fault in their personality........Batrish Laxan means , faultless man......

So, I am not Batris Laxan....I have many faults...I get angry, I gets irritated , I gets restless......all these are not the charecteristic of a super human man.....super human means batris laxan.....

Coming back to market, for some days Mid/small cap were not moving and suddenly they fired on Friday.
Well, there can be a correction of 300 points in Nifty any time as seems the market is heating up but specific stock will keep on outperforming market ......but 5540 -5560 nifty can come anytime.......and after that market will consolidate and then will move up....but I again write....specific stock will outpeform in this period as well.....


  1. dear rajiv, i read your blog regularly,and appreciate your knowledge and hard work in market study, world markets, their movements are complex issues one has to have very futuristic vision and study, anticipate the markets, retail investors make money in few scripts and loose in another, overall only the operater and big players pocket the large chunk of profits, i jst wanted to know how to limit the loss in markets? what is your view on Relince ind ?

  2. Hi rajeev,

    What happens if operators acting together bought up a lot of shares when the price was low. Then they just have to keep selling their shares to each other in circles right. Just curious to know all the modes of manipulation.

    SNL Bearings is falling everyday by 5-10% but I took your advice and sold 50% when the price doubled. So not much worried now :) Thanks!

  3. JC,
    U have just started as you have written once.....don't be in hurry to learn everything too fast.
    The best way to learn is observe.
    Pick up a stock and track it everyday.....see where it goes, what bottoms it makes, what is the Vol, what is the delivarable Vol....from where its starts going up.....etc etc...
    Like you have seen the journey of SNL as ur holding has become FREE, observe it where it went from which high and where it corrected and when the corrections gets over ans starts its upward journey.
    See, what happens to SNL...see what hinderence it use to have crossing the previous many times it comes back after touching the previous high....

  4. praveen,
    If I say the truth then there is no formula for avoiding a LOSS.....otherwise every fundmanager would have done that...Lehman Br , UBS,Citi gr...they have all Havard learned guys as employee and still all the debacle happens...they spread their RISK and still ended up in huge huge LOSS...

  5. Rajiv bhai
    please sujjest your fundamental view on sms pharma at cmp 183 . ipo come at 380
    according to some reknown sources
    sms pharma is in accumulating phase from last 6 month by a very big operater.
    whenever he send me any pick in past like
    som distilary@22,milienium beer at 15 he prove right.according to him
    operater of abon off shore who operate abon offshore from 30 to 11000
    is active in this counter
    he is not in hurry just keep sideways and acumulating and increasing
    his holding in sms pharma.

  6. Ashok,
    If the operator of Aban Llyod and SMS are same then let me write that when he will move SMS is difficult to say....he may move after 2 yrs...means it may take even 2 yrs to cross the previous high....he has a very bad habit of making investors tired....and untill the counter becomes absoluetly dry he will not move SMS....that is his modus operendi....
    So , SMS is an excellent stock but when u say Aban Llyod operator is there in SMS then the wait can be more then what you are if u r going to invest in SMS then get ready to hold for 3-5 yrs....... Ashok, that guy is never in hurry to run his you said,he will keep accumalating and keep increasing his stake.....and when his accumalation will be over only GOD knows ya He knows him self...

  7. hello sir,

    feeling good to visit ur blog after a long time. actually i was busy with my post graduation and to concentrate in study i had booked profit at 15k and now out of market from long period. Today as sensex is at new high i thought of reading some market news and views and offcourse to start with is ur blog. reading and analysing ur call from last one hour. i found u have gr8 success in the past.

    i am feeling like market will touch new high wat do u think? ( as u r the bull expert :) )


  8. Raju bhai
    idbi ipo come at 130 17 year ago.
    this scrip underperform whole banking sector till now.
    in my view if any scrip cross ipo price and sustain some day above ipo price we see firework in that scrip
    in 1993 idbi quote near 125 and infosys quote near 100
    those who invest infosys that time and hold till today gain 2 crore but in idbi sitting at same amount
    your view please

  9. praveen,
    Ril Ind is an excellent stock to hold or buy for LT....

  10. ashok,
    it is simple to understand that Infosys outperformed and idbi didn't.....and market always gives thumps up to stocks which ahs exponential growth....

  11. Rajiv bhai
    after crossing ipo price (130) idbi start movment.please sujjest at what price we exit because you know by grace of maa sarswati if any scrip enter in bull zone or uncharted teritory where he go
    but invester like me know nothing

  12. ashok,
    I think now has the time come to buy and hold IDBI.....according to me , IDBI is not a sell but hold and even buy.....

  13. Any info on snl again ? Seems to be targetted by somebody to bring lower n lower ...