Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Sensex near 20k.....A Hypothesis...Comparing Crude movement with Sensex...

Friends,
I have been observing this move of Sensex and Nifty with great excitement.Only certain A gr stocks are moving and midcap/smallcap are going down or not moving at all......It is clear that shorts are tarpped and bulls are hammering them like anything.Once the position , be it short or long is known and the weakness is found, then the other who is weak has to pay a heavy price...and here bears are paying for playing short....as soon as the short will be cut down market will correct...
The move of indices is absolutely speculative for last 1500 points in sensex.I feel that market should correct anytime for again of 1000-1500 points.It is the short position that is making this unusal rise......
But get ready for 1000 points correction in sensex any time......
But that doesn't mean that Midcap/smallcap will also go down.Maybe this time in correction , this segment can move in opposite direction.
Well, I was thinking on Crude and was trying to see when was Crude at $72 last time before it touched $147.27( not sure about exact quote) ion July 2008....and from that Crude went down as much as $33.87 in Dec 2008........and is now hovering around $74.34.......
I was trying to figure out when crude was around same price on its upward journey to $147...what was time when crude was at $74?
And after exploring much on internet I am able to gather the information Crude touched $77 in June 2006 and again in June/july 2007....
Now when I try to see what was the sensex in June 2006 , then Sensex was around 10,000 and in June 2007 it was around 14k....
Well, friends what I am trying to derive from all this statistic is, what can be the SENSEX WHEN AGAIN CRUDE WILL TOUCH THE PREVIOSU HIGH......at $147.27!
I can be totally wrong in my hypothises and so one need to take a call according to oneself......

Now if we come back on what I am trying to figure out, then say, if we take 2006 as base then sensex was at 10k  and it went on to touch 21k, means 110% upmove from 10k....10,000+11000= 21,000...and that was the TOP we saw in 2008 Jan.
The second option is June 2007 where Crude touched $74(appro) and the SENSEX was at 14,000...so sensex move from 14k to 21k , means 7k up means 50% from 14k......
Now the Crude is at $74 and in that we have TWO scenario.....
Either we take 2006 june or we take 2007 June as base for sensex.....
Now one can see that, at Crude $74 we are now at 19800, means 20k....so the probability that occurs are of two type..:
1) Sensex has 110% return from 20k, now when the crude is $74 , and leads us to SENSEX at 42,000...

and
2) Taking the base of 2007 june when sensex was at 14k, when crude was again at $74, then 50% up from where it is now.....means 30k SENSEX.....

Well, in both the probailities, we have SENSEX crossing 30k......

Now both the above probailities has other options too! One is if Crude remains at same stage for more then  2 yrs or say, takes more time to touch all time high of $147,then the upward target for Sensex can be even bigger then 42K......but if Crude moves exactly what it did after 2007 then also we are sure to touch 30k and even more.
Well, these are all hypothetical statistics.This can happen and may not happen.But what I am trying to say here is Charts also show the same thing.This can happen and this may not happen.
None of the  chartist came out to say that 19800 will come and everyone were sceptic of the further upmove on sensex......
But one thing is sure untill Crude remains below $100 , market will keep on outperforming and in perticular Emerging market , in that India , Russia and Brazil.
Crude remians cheap so will be the production cost.Just imagine the scenario when crude was at $147 and what was the IMPACT.
World is not witnessing that.But Goldman Sachs is bullishn on Crude and Gold .I am bullish on GOLD. No view on Crude how it will go but the journey is upward that I am sure on that but when crude will cross the previous high is hard to project.
In June 2008 I use to write that Crude at $147 is speculative and it turned out to be true.All analyst were gungho on Crude touching $200......
Well,I have written my views on sensex and tried to match it with crude movement.....I may go totally wrong and I may prove absoluetly correct...Let us see what happens!
There is still one catch here.If crude crosses $147 and this time it touches the Magic figure of $200, then where will the Sensex be!

8 comments:

  1. i think crude will now catch up. SBTL looks really good. it has consolidated well and also started production of bio deisl from new vizag plant too.

    ReplyDelete
  2. dear sir,

    i wants to ask one question?

    i can't understand why DII is selling heavily from last one month and FII's buying heavily?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi,
    Ramesh Damani, Member, BSE is bullish on the market.
    Please check the following link

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoDyiIVLw7k

    With Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Rajeev,
    Sorry for this.
    But one more Ramesh Damani Interview - Its a serious mistake to stay out of this Market!

    http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/market-outlook/market-to-surge-higher-may-touch-21200damani_485790.html?utm_source=Article_Vid

    With Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Rajeev,
    whats ur view on Hyd ind, flex foods which u have recommended long back. Hyd ind seems to have a good BV and EPS and its not moving up in the bull run.. please let me know ur comments.

    ReplyDelete
  6. santosh,
    Flex Foods seems to be a fail call....Hyd Ind should do well....

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Rajeev,

    thanks for ur comments, I want to know your view on Mannapuram Finance which is rocking .. and also about Galaxy Entertainment Corp Ltd. future group..

    Please let me know comments on the same .

    thanks
    santhosh kumar J

    ReplyDelete
  8. santosh,
    Mannapuram is flying high.We are here to discuss stocks which are low priced with some exception...like Venus Remedies, Loyal Tex, Hitech Gear ...etc...so try to discuss stocks which are still below 20-30-40 level.....that is where the reutrn is big...

    ReplyDelete