Published on Thu, Apr 09, 2009 at 14:11 , Updated at Thu, Apr 09, 2009 at 18:39 Source : CNBC-TV18
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Mark Galasiewski, Asian-Pacific Fin Forecast at Elliott Wave International, sees Sensex at 100,000 within 15 years based on technicals and current patterns. He is of the view that October 2008 lows have already been breached by most markets but India did not, which is very significant. "From the pattern perspective, there was only a three wave decline down to the October lows and most of the other major world markets made what we would call a fifth wave or final wave down in this leg of their bear markets, but India is special because it has only three waves down."
Here is a verbatim transcript of Mark Galasiewski’s comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: You seem to be very bullish on India. Looking at the charts of Sensex, what is your target for the Sensex in medium-term as well as the long-term, because you have a 15 year target?
A: We are very bullish, in fact this is going to sound extraordinary to many people but this is all based on technicals and if the patterns we are observing are correct, the implication is Sensex 100,000 within 15 years.
Q: What is your view on the Asian markets in that context, you think Asian markets will also rally or is it going to be just a regional phenomenon with Indian markets outperforming?
A: Our forecast for India is based on the particular what we are calling the Indian Ocean Group, these are the markets from Pakistan, down to Indonesia, that are connected to the Indian ocean. This is very distinct from the rest of East Asia for example and very distinct from Europe and the US. Our services here in the Eliot Wave International are forecasting larger bear markets for the next few to several years in the US, Europe, Japan and even china. India and the subcontinent in particular is special.
Q: Do you think that the October lows that we hit for global markets will be breached by most markets or will those lows hold?
A: The October lows already have been. The fact that India did not, is very significant. From the pattern perspective, there was only a three wave decline down to the October lows and most of the other major world markets made what we would call a fifth wave or final wave down in this leg of their bear markets, but India is special because it has only three waves down.
This is the most Optimist target I have ever seen in my life.It even beats Rakesh Jhunjhunwala optimism.
So what one needs to do?
Brace yourself and begin investing as you start getting money or enough spare money to invest.
The Elliot wave technicals is the pattern the technical analyst follows very religiously and this is coming from non Indian which makes us feels better then our local analyst.None of the local analyst have been able to read the Elliot Wave pattern in this way , the way Mark has discussed it here.
Now if we think say not 100,000 but 80,000 then we ought not to be at below 21,000 even after 5 yrs because after 10 yrs should touch from say 16k-17k to 80,000 to 1,00,000!So brace your self and start investing .......
Latest news is that RK Damani , who use to wear always white pants and white shirt and White Coat.....in Suit( also fondly known as a man in White and White).....has cutoff all his short position and is waiting for Macro and micro triggers to take stance accordingly.
One need to remember that RK Damani and not Ramesh Damani whom we see on TV, is the mentor of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and that means he carry lots of weight when we wants to look what is going to happen in Indian Stock Market.
Golden period awaits for Indian Market in years ahead........
What I fail to understand is why our Indian counterparts of technical analyst fails to see this pattern !
What this implies.....!and rather when we think about this that "When FII's will know about our market Potential in Long Term what will happen?
Will be very interesting to see what Shankar Sharma will say on this ! and how he will try to place himself.....