Thursday, April 2, 2009

Can we break the previous Low of 7700!

Freinds ,
Market was up by over 193 points after a rally of 140 point yesterday.
I read the latest interview of Ramesh Damani on money control.
He is still bearish on market and feels that for next 5-6 yrs atleast there are no chance to cross the 21k.
He is of the opinion that we will also break the previous low not immidiately but will surely break it.He is very sure of it but I disgree with him here.The low that we made and the world market made was in Oct '08 and that was due to the reason that Lehman Br went bankrupt.
After that Satyam news came of siphoning the money and still we didn't break the previous low.
Then came the news of AIG of $61 bn loss in a qr.Still market sustained.
Hence I feel that we will need a very very big bad news to break the previous low of 7700.....This is my view and I maybe wrong.
I also came across through the interview of Shankar Sharma which he gave some 10 days back.
He is also bearish and very bearish.His rationale is totally different.He says that Momentum brings in the rally and the Bull market and not the valuations.He says that he has got numerous examples when valuations are cheap and still market goes nowhere.
But what I need to ask him is how the momentum takes place?
Can he tell me how momentum will come in our market?
Agreed that valuation can remain cheap and still market remains there but at some point of time that same cheap valuation is seen by FII's, DII's, HNI's and they start pouring money in these market and hence the momentum comes.
So the backbone of momentum is CHEAP VALUATION....No one in the world can ignore it.
What Shankar Sharma is talking not getting in my mind.His reasons are not jutifiable.
Same with RD that we will go much lower then previous low of 7700....I still feel that it should not happen and as Mark Mobious said recently that this Bear Rally can turn out in unfolding a new Bull Market.
We can see a good run up from hereon as I have written peviously uptill election.
I have seen many of my stock I listed in cash gr and even in A gr has run up yesterday very nicely.......let us keep our fingure crossed.........
If we run upto say 11k or 12k then from thereon market is going to come back to 7700 and break it then there should come a very very bad news to do that.
Say our market touches 12k and then if has to come to 7000 or 6000 then it has to shed some 5000 to 6000 points and for that some very bad negatives will be it can be derived that whatever negatives of global financial crisis or USA housing sector slow down has been factored in.
As I have written earlier Banks and Finance sector can outperform in big way any time.Be contrarian.

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