Thursday, April 16, 2009

Market up by 550 points.........

My heading is confusing.....? Isn't it?
But if one looks at the 248 points down in initial stage then 300 plus points gives 550 points rally.
People and analyst has started saying that they are seeing madness in the market.
Market just rallied from 8000 to 11200 and they are seeing madness.Wow ! what a analysis?When market went down and down constantly for 12 months without giving any reaction , which in normal course market should give, no one said that this is sheer madness.Then why people and analyst are saying in such a small runup that this is Madness?
Well, Intel has given over expectated profit.Goldman has come upwith good numbers.Housing sector is showing sign of turning back.
I have given bearish view in past but then we need to constantly observe the macro and micro economics and need to change the view accordingly.No one is God in market.Market is the ultimate. Those who tried to move the market by themselves , whether it is BULL or BEAR they got lost and never came back.I know lots of example like that.....Either Bulls got lost or Bear got lost......Market is the supreme.......
But my undertone remianed always bullish.The valuations were abysmally low.
I would like to give special mention here for 2 stocks.I have discussed them in past here and at MMB.They are Marg Construction and Kavveri Tele.
Keep an eye on both of them.In both stock the profit have come down but they are still good enough to give over 10 eps.Marg perticularly has great orders in hand and good collobaration while Kavveri is a dark horse though promoters holding is poor I like it.
This bear market rally is going to get converted in a new bull run and I feel that we can see a new high before the end of next year.
It looks that I am carried away by this rally as all analyst and bears says that bear market rallies are vicious and fast.
But then let us see what happens.....I have already written what one needs to do in my last post...


  1. sir greetings, how r you? this is regarding goldman s results. the results are for their last quarter ie first quarter as a bank. their last result was as a finance company for which the quarter ended at november 08. as a bank their new quarter started from jan 09.. december 08 when they lost 1 billion went unaccounted it seems. so their profit should be .5 billion it seems. got this from a website. please do verify. regarding indian markets people keep on saying fundamentals havent changed but market seems moving up up and up. so when it falls it will be quick and steep is what people say. but as u said may be we can avoid f n o and buy marg and kavveri and other stocks from ur list they might give a 40% erturn in amonth if market goes like this.thanks. drkksuresh

  2. Dear KK Suresh,
    On Goldman Scahs results , it is entirly new start.
    The money they owe from AIG they have started getting and hence $1 bn loss is nothing to take note of according to me.
    Regarding our market I remember I wrote here and else where that , What I like about this Bear Market is the way valuations going down so fast.Never in my career in stock market I have seen valuations losing so fast.That means Bear phase can end soon as generally bear phase ends when the valuations get cheaper.
    Yes , you are right that people are saying that fundamentals are still not good and hence this is a bear market rally but I have some other view.
    I have often written here that watch CRUDE and COMMODITIES.Both are up from the lows and consolodating.
    The $700 bn pacakage is showing some positive results which I wrote in my last post.
    Another thing to remember is when Bear becomes complacent it is time for Bulls to make a comeback just like when Bulls became complacent in Jan 08n and bears took the charge.
    Well, Doctor some times intutions plays a big role in deciding what is going to happen.
    My intution says that this is not a bear market rally but a platform for next bull run.I have categorically written here in my last post that by the end of Dec 2010, we should cross the previous high.Now just imagine if we cross the previous high by Dec 2010 then what will be the return.
    One may laugh at me now and I may prove wrong as has been the case since last 15 as Rakesh jhunjhunwala use to say that "I reserve my right to be wrong......" Market is the Supreme...
    Never ever play in F N O.....