Friends,
This is what Mr Francis asked me and that is the reply.....
Francis said...
thank you rajeevji for making my views your lead story. in you calling out the army has more than amplified my postings at the prevalant over exuberance of the multibaggers akin to the atmosphere when you shed light on the markets never going into bear markets.
so, are'nt we standing at that same sweet spot yet again albeit at a lower sensex levels, and not vice se verser
"My Answer:
Francis,
Yes, I AM A BULL....ONE MAY CALL ME SELF PROCLAIMED BULL IF SOMEONE WANTS TO.
I remained bullish throughout 2008 and I do not deny that and I proved wrong as well .And as you have asked, whether the same scenario is taking place again in the horizen!
I know there are many experts who feels that we will again go to the 2008 level of 8000.The sign on the global level says we are in a bad drubbing.
In 2008, no one expected 8k of sensex.People like Shankar Sharma who was advocating bearish view and giving LOWER targets one by one also went wrong....They were sure that market will touch 6000 and then 4000 and 3000 because I already got a target from my friends at that time that NIFTY will touch 900 and they were very sure of that......but NIFTY 900 never came....even Nifty 2000 never came...
So in that sense bearish view or analysis also went wrong.....
There are certain experts in our market who always SELLS AT THE TOP AND GET OUT OF THE MARKET AND ALWAYS BUY AT THE BOTTOM.....These are the experts who always says in public that"see I said this "but remember the persons is changed everytime this happens.You understand what I mean to say?It means that same iand same person is not able to say "See I told you, and I sold at 18k(or whatever)as he was knowing that market will tank from here and I bought at 8k or whatever it is.... "
I would like to add here :
See, I am not a master.I have said that before .I make mistakes.It is the readers who has to take call on market or stock.
This is a simple thing to understand.Very simple......If anyone feel that we can again go down in big way, they need to sell everything and rest at peace.......
I will keep on writing stocks where I will find VALUE..........
I don't understand why Mr Francis do not understand this thing.He keeps on questioning same thing even after I have wrote this....
There are stocks which are still making new 52 week highs like SNL Bearing, Lumax Ind etc...so what has it to do with the market?
See, it is always like that.....stocks moves up and market goes down.I wrote, Lumax Ind is such type of stock that it will move up when market is down and that we are seeing......
One cannot invest in market looking at what is going to happen tommorow or in next 3 months ....like we will buy when market will come to 14500 again or 12000 again, as by that time some stocks will go up and one can lose the profit......that is never a good strategy......buy when one find a value....
I have written many times , have we saw Warren Buffet or Rakesh Jhunjhunwala selling in 2008?Returns should be seen in context of LT.Even after masters and expert speaking dooms day for USA economy, WB is unperturbed...he is not selling....Commom man, he is 77 yrs old and has gone through each bearish phase.He is much much more experianced then us......take a clue from him....
What I will say is, anyone who feels that I am going to prove wrong in perdicting market , one is always FREE not to buy anything......
This will be my last and final discussion on this TOPIC......any other comments on same topic , I will not entertain it....
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Kabra Extrusiontechnik .....my old call finds place in ET today.....
Rising demand comes in handy
Augmenting Product Portfolio To Help Kabra Extrusiontechnik Gain Market Share
Ramkrishna Kashelkar ET INTELLIGENCE GROUP
MUMBAI-BASED Kabra Extrusiontechnik (KETL) gained 0.4% on Tuesday, outperforming an otherwise weak market, with the BSE Sensex tumbling 1.4%. The company has outperformed the market nearly tripling in the past one year against a 23% gain in the benchmark Sensex. Much of the scrip’s gain has come in 2010, as it jumped 81% in the past six months, while the Sensex stagnated.
In the second half of FY10, the company had emerged out of the stagnation that had engulfed its operations for the past couple of years. The company’s sales in the second half jumped 52% against the year-ago period, while profits soared 218%. Still, the company is seeing a strong order flow, which has enabled it to carry an order book of nearly Rs 100 crore in the first half of FY11. Considering the fact that the first half is typically a lean period for the company, the company’s order book is expected to strengthen further in the second half.
KETL is a cash-rich, debt-free company with a history of strong operating cash flows. Its cash and equivalent investments have grown at a cumulative annualised growth rate (CAGR) of 58% in the past five years to Rs 46.3 crore as on March 31, 2010.
The company is a leader in India manufacturing machines for the plastic processing industry. The demand for KETL’s extrusion machinery to produce plastic pipes and packaging films is growing fast, with the rising plastic consumption in India. According to industry estimates, India consumed 8 million tonne of plastics in 2009, which is expected to double in the next 5-6 years. It is estimated that the plastic processors will have to invest nearly $10 billion over the next 5-6 years to create the necessary plastic processing capacity.
The company has embarked upon an expansion plan to gain from this trend. It has embarked upon an investment plan of Rs 85 crore, which will more than double its gross block by FY12. The company is setting up an additional assembly shop in Daman by August 2010, which will improve the efficiency of its existing facility. Another manufacturing unit is being set up in Daman by end-2011.
The company is also augmenting its product portfolio with new offerings. It is the only company in India manufacturing machinery for window and door profiles. It has recently launched a new product to manufacture drip irrigation tube lines in collaboration with Drip Research Technology Services of the US. It is also planning to launch new high-speed multi-layer blown films plants by end-2010.
Augmenting Product Portfolio To Help Kabra Extrusiontechnik Gain Market Share
Ramkrishna Kashelkar ET INTELLIGENCE GROUP
MUMBAI-BASED Kabra Extrusiontechnik (KETL) gained 0.4% on Tuesday, outperforming an otherwise weak market, with the BSE Sensex tumbling 1.4%. The company has outperformed the market nearly tripling in the past one year against a 23% gain in the benchmark Sensex. Much of the scrip’s gain has come in 2010, as it jumped 81% in the past six months, while the Sensex stagnated.
In the second half of FY10, the company had emerged out of the stagnation that had engulfed its operations for the past couple of years. The company’s sales in the second half jumped 52% against the year-ago period, while profits soared 218%. Still, the company is seeing a strong order flow, which has enabled it to carry an order book of nearly Rs 100 crore in the first half of FY11. Considering the fact that the first half is typically a lean period for the company, the company’s order book is expected to strengthen further in the second half.
KETL is a cash-rich, debt-free company with a history of strong operating cash flows. Its cash and equivalent investments have grown at a cumulative annualised growth rate (CAGR) of 58% in the past five years to Rs 46.3 crore as on March 31, 2010.
The company is a leader in India manufacturing machines for the plastic processing industry. The demand for KETL’s extrusion machinery to produce plastic pipes and packaging films is growing fast, with the rising plastic consumption in India. According to industry estimates, India consumed 8 million tonne of plastics in 2009, which is expected to double in the next 5-6 years. It is estimated that the plastic processors will have to invest nearly $10 billion over the next 5-6 years to create the necessary plastic processing capacity.
The company has embarked upon an expansion plan to gain from this trend. It has embarked upon an investment plan of Rs 85 crore, which will more than double its gross block by FY12. The company is setting up an additional assembly shop in Daman by August 2010, which will improve the efficiency of its existing facility. Another manufacturing unit is being set up in Daman by end-2011.
The company is also augmenting its product portfolio with new offerings. It is the only company in India manufacturing machinery for window and door profiles. It has recently launched a new product to manufacture drip irrigation tube lines in collaboration with Drip Research Technology Services of the US. It is also planning to launch new high-speed multi-layer blown films plants by end-2010.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Advertising spending in media set to increase this fiscal............
B Y A NUSHREE C HANDRAN anushree.m@livemint.com
························· MUMBAI
Advertising in newspapers and on television will grow this financial year at more than twice the pace of the last year, driven by sectors such as tele- coms, consumer goods, finan- cial services, automobiles and retail, a media research agency has predicted.
Spending on advertising in the media will increase 14% in the year, compared with a 6% rise in the year ended 31 March, says a report by GroupM, the media research arm of WPP Plc.
Advertisers are spending more on expectations of a good monsoon and higher economic growth, according to the report titled This Year, Next Year.
Traditional advertisers in- creased their spending be- tween January and March 2010, and the upswing has continued in the next three months, driv- en by the popular Indian Pre- mier League (IPL) cricket tour- nament.
Television advertising is ex- pected to grow 20% in 2011 and print advertising 7%.
Expenditure on television advertising will touch Rs11,897 crore in fiscal 2011, up from Rs9,914 crore in 2010 and Rs8,820 crore in 2009, GroupM predicts.
Broadcasters have increased their ad rates, even as the frag- mentation of viewers across an assortment of channels is pushing advertisers to spend more. Regional channels are also consolidating revenues as their viewership grows.
The economic slowdown boosted radio ad revenue as re- tail brands moved their expen- diture to the cheaper broadcast medium. Consumer goods, consumer durables and tele- coms contributed nearly one- fifth of radio's overall ad reve- nue.
The growth in print ad spending will likely ride on new launches in the automobile and financial services sectors.
Retail and consumer durables will also add to the numbers, the report says.
Newspapers will earn Rs11,088 crore in advertising revenue in fiscal 2011, up from Rs10,363 crore in 2010 and Rs9,832 crore in 2009, it fore- cast.
The increase in advertising revenue for magazines, howev- er, will be relatively smaller, touching Rs864 crore in 2011, up from Rs808 crore in 2010.
GroupM has predicted a 3.5% increase in global adver- tising spending, according to foreign media reports. In the US, media spending is ex- pected to decline by 1.3% in 2010.
GroupM executives were not available to comment on the report.
L.S. Krishnan, president of Mudra Group's Radar unit, said advertisers are willing to spend more today, and a good mon- soon could well push up ad spending by double dig- its.
But he cautioned that a poor monsoon and high inflation could dampen sentiment, re- ducing the disposable income of consumers and hurting the sales growth of companies.
“We would be back on a down- ward spiral,“ he said.
Sam Balsara, chairman and managing director, Madison Group, said advertising had bounced back, and could po- tentially create an “inflationary pressure on media rates“. It's a trend that's already visible, he said.
Star India Pvt. Ltd credited a hike in industry ad rates for 9-10% growth in advertising spending. Executive vice-presi- dent Anupam Vasudev said the economic downturn did not hurt television channels, as they do not depend too heavily on real estate and financial sec- tors, which were seriously hit.
“But telecom and FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) continued to advertise in a big way, and in the last six months advertising has picked up,“ said Vasudev.
My Comments:
Look out for Newspaper stocks like Sandesh, Deccan Chronicle etc....watch out for regional channels like Sun TV, Raj TV etc and also watch out for Ink producing Cos like Micro Inks etc....
Updates:
Cable Corp is firing all cylinders.....now at 41....Lumax Ind crossed 300 today.....Cronimet Alloy has also started moving up after good consolidation around 42-43....
························· MUMBAI
Advertising in newspapers and on television will grow this financial year at more than twice the pace of the last year, driven by sectors such as tele- coms, consumer goods, finan- cial services, automobiles and retail, a media research agency has predicted.
Spending on advertising in the media will increase 14% in the year, compared with a 6% rise in the year ended 31 March, says a report by GroupM, the media research arm of WPP Plc.
Advertisers are spending more on expectations of a good monsoon and higher economic growth, according to the report titled This Year, Next Year.
Traditional advertisers in- creased their spending be- tween January and March 2010, and the upswing has continued in the next three months, driv- en by the popular Indian Pre- mier League (IPL) cricket tour- nament.
Television advertising is ex- pected to grow 20% in 2011 and print advertising 7%.
Expenditure on television advertising will touch Rs11,897 crore in fiscal 2011, up from Rs9,914 crore in 2010 and Rs8,820 crore in 2009, GroupM predicts.
Broadcasters have increased their ad rates, even as the frag- mentation of viewers across an assortment of channels is pushing advertisers to spend more. Regional channels are also consolidating revenues as their viewership grows.
The economic slowdown boosted radio ad revenue as re- tail brands moved their expen- diture to the cheaper broadcast medium. Consumer goods, consumer durables and tele- coms contributed nearly one- fifth of radio's overall ad reve- nue.
The growth in print ad spending will likely ride on new launches in the automobile and financial services sectors.
Retail and consumer durables will also add to the numbers, the report says.
Newspapers will earn Rs11,088 crore in advertising revenue in fiscal 2011, up from Rs10,363 crore in 2010 and Rs9,832 crore in 2009, it fore- cast.
The increase in advertising revenue for magazines, howev- er, will be relatively smaller, touching Rs864 crore in 2011, up from Rs808 crore in 2010.
GroupM has predicted a 3.5% increase in global adver- tising spending, according to foreign media reports. In the US, media spending is ex- pected to decline by 1.3% in 2010.
GroupM executives were not available to comment on the report.
L.S. Krishnan, president of Mudra Group's Radar unit, said advertisers are willing to spend more today, and a good mon- soon could well push up ad spending by double dig- its.
But he cautioned that a poor monsoon and high inflation could dampen sentiment, re- ducing the disposable income of consumers and hurting the sales growth of companies.
“We would be back on a down- ward spiral,“ he said.
Sam Balsara, chairman and managing director, Madison Group, said advertising had bounced back, and could po- tentially create an “inflationary pressure on media rates“. It's a trend that's already visible, he said.
Star India Pvt. Ltd credited a hike in industry ad rates for 9-10% growth in advertising spending. Executive vice-presi- dent Anupam Vasudev said the economic downturn did not hurt television channels, as they do not depend too heavily on real estate and financial sec- tors, which were seriously hit.
“But telecom and FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) continued to advertise in a big way, and in the last six months advertising has picked up,“ said Vasudev.
My Comments:
Look out for Newspaper stocks like Sandesh, Deccan Chronicle etc....watch out for regional channels like Sun TV, Raj TV etc and also watch out for Ink producing Cos like Micro Inks etc....
Updates:
Cable Corp is firing all cylinders.....now at 41....Lumax Ind crossed 300 today.....Cronimet Alloy has also started moving up after good consolidation around 42-43....
Monday, June 28, 2010
Essar to begin Raniganj gas supply from July .............
Pratim Ranjan Bose
Kolkata, June 27
Essar Exploration and Production Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Essar Oil, hopes to start its first gas supply from the Ranigunj (East) CBM block beginning next month.
The initial supplies of 5,000 standard cubic metre a day (scmd) will be to a medium-scale industrial consumer in Durgapur through cascades.
The company's present agreement is with the RPG Group's Phillips Carbon Black Ltd (PCBL) for meeting the requirement of its Durgapur factory. The volume of supply is 60,000 scmd. PCBL is expected to part replace the liquid feedstock CBFS (carbon black feed stock) with gas.
Essar has also entered in a long term contract for sale of 2.8 million metric standard cubic metre (mmscmd) to Matix Fertilisers and Chemicals for its proposed gas-based fertiliser facility.
Below target
According to sources, Essar is currently producing 16,000 scmd of gas from 15 wells at the field located close to Durgapur. The production falls short of its target of one lakh scmd (0.1 mmscmd) from the field, located 150 km away from here, by March 2010.
Sources said that unexpected increase in water flow into the wells was the prime reason behind the less than targeted production of gas. Unlike oil and natural gas reserves, CBM reserves are of low pressure and needs water to be pumped out to let gas come up. The duration of this ‘de-watering' or stabilising the production varies between the reserves. “Understandably the water content is now coming down and production from the existing wells would rise,” a source added.
Meanwhile, the company plans to drill 160 wells a year to take the total number of wells in Ranigunj (East) to over 300 by the end of 2011-12. A total of seven rigs or drills are currently pressed into service. Ten new wells have already been added to the tally.
Essar has exploration rights in four new blocks in the last CBM Policy round, taking its total tally of CBM exploration acreages to five. Additionally, the company has been awaiting the Centre's approval for CBM exploration rights in its oil and gas field of Mehsana in Gujarat for quite a few years now.
Among the new blocks own, Sohagpur in Madhya Pradesh is considered the most promising. The others include Rajmahal, IB Valley and Talcher. Of these, Rajmahal block in Jharkhand is located closer to the Ranigunj (East).
My Comments:
No wonder punters are giving targets of 200 in ST......looking at the above news, Essar Oil is starting Gas supply next month, this is an obvious 1st target.....and long way to go.....
Kolkata, June 27
Essar Exploration and Production Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Essar Oil, hopes to start its first gas supply from the Ranigunj (East) CBM block beginning next month.
The initial supplies of 5,000 standard cubic metre a day (scmd) will be to a medium-scale industrial consumer in Durgapur through cascades.
The company's present agreement is with the RPG Group's Phillips Carbon Black Ltd (PCBL) for meeting the requirement of its Durgapur factory. The volume of supply is 60,000 scmd. PCBL is expected to part replace the liquid feedstock CBFS (carbon black feed stock) with gas.
Essar has also entered in a long term contract for sale of 2.8 million metric standard cubic metre (mmscmd) to Matix Fertilisers and Chemicals for its proposed gas-based fertiliser facility.
Below target
According to sources, Essar is currently producing 16,000 scmd of gas from 15 wells at the field located close to Durgapur. The production falls short of its target of one lakh scmd (0.1 mmscmd) from the field, located 150 km away from here, by March 2010.
Sources said that unexpected increase in water flow into the wells was the prime reason behind the less than targeted production of gas. Unlike oil and natural gas reserves, CBM reserves are of low pressure and needs water to be pumped out to let gas come up. The duration of this ‘de-watering' or stabilising the production varies between the reserves. “Understandably the water content is now coming down and production from the existing wells would rise,” a source added.
Meanwhile, the company plans to drill 160 wells a year to take the total number of wells in Ranigunj (East) to over 300 by the end of 2011-12. A total of seven rigs or drills are currently pressed into service. Ten new wells have already been added to the tally.
Essar has exploration rights in four new blocks in the last CBM Policy round, taking its total tally of CBM exploration acreages to five. Additionally, the company has been awaiting the Centre's approval for CBM exploration rights in its oil and gas field of Mehsana in Gujarat for quite a few years now.
Among the new blocks own, Sohagpur in Madhya Pradesh is considered the most promising. The others include Rajmahal, IB Valley and Talcher. Of these, Rajmahal block in Jharkhand is located closer to the Ranigunj (East).
My Comments:
No wonder punters are giving targets of 200 in ST......looking at the above news, Essar Oil is starting Gas supply next month, this is an obvious 1st target.....and long way to go.....
Friends,
I am seeing that Mr.Francis is unhappy with my blog.He was giving examples of some other sites and blog that they are transperant.In the sense that they even write how much negative return their call gave .
I write only about my good calls and do not mentioned about bad calls where people have bought and lost money.
He even gave example of my post of 2008 wherein I wrote about SKS Logistic, Jayaswal Neco,Allied Comp,and many more which I wrote constantly as buy calls.
Well, what I would like to write here is , 2008 year was bad for the whole world and I have already mentioned that Allied Comp was a rank bad call.
Regarding Jayasswal Neco,SKS etc......they have started moving up and they will cross the previous high as well of 2008......rest luck.....
Take a case of ABC Ind which I gave a call in 30's.....and readers were asking me what to do with it......now see where it is......118? and Madhu Kela has taken stake......One year is nothing in stock market.If fundamentals are sound then they will go up sooner or later.....We all know, PSL Ltd,Apar Ind, SRF Ltd and many more which I have recomended has not moved compared to others which moved......does that mean those were bad calls?
There is no binding to visit my blog.If someone feels I am boasting and am no good, he is always free not to visit my blog.There are many blog which they feel are transparent and they are free to visit them and have interaction with them and make money.I have no problem with that....
There is no sense pointing my past post of 2008 of which I gave calls and tell me that these stocks has underperformed.......No one is 100% correct and I am no exception.........I feel , even if my calls are 50% successful which can give over 100% return in a year then I am good as the parametres to measure success rate in stock market world over including India is, If one can make 20% return in a year in stock market , you are Beating the Street........and I think my calls are atleast good enough to make an overall return of 20% in one year.....
I am seeing that Mr.Francis is unhappy with my blog.He was giving examples of some other sites and blog that they are transperant.In the sense that they even write how much negative return their call gave .
I write only about my good calls and do not mentioned about bad calls where people have bought and lost money.
He even gave example of my post of 2008 wherein I wrote about SKS Logistic, Jayaswal Neco,Allied Comp,and many more which I wrote constantly as buy calls.
Well, what I would like to write here is , 2008 year was bad for the whole world and I have already mentioned that Allied Comp was a rank bad call.
Regarding Jayasswal Neco,SKS etc......they have started moving up and they will cross the previous high as well of 2008......rest luck.....
Take a case of ABC Ind which I gave a call in 30's.....and readers were asking me what to do with it......now see where it is......118? and Madhu Kela has taken stake......One year is nothing in stock market.If fundamentals are sound then they will go up sooner or later.....We all know, PSL Ltd,Apar Ind, SRF Ltd and many more which I have recomended has not moved compared to others which moved......does that mean those were bad calls?
There is no binding to visit my blog.If someone feels I am boasting and am no good, he is always free not to visit my blog.There are many blog which they feel are transparent and they are free to visit them and have interaction with them and make money.I have no problem with that....
There is no sense pointing my past post of 2008 of which I gave calls and tell me that these stocks has underperformed.......No one is 100% correct and I am no exception.........I feel , even if my calls are 50% successful which can give over 100% return in a year then I am good as the parametres to measure success rate in stock market world over including India is, If one can make 20% return in a year in stock market , you are Beating the Street........and I think my calls are atleast good enough to make an overall return of 20% in one year.....
SpiceJet's flight to profit .............
Kanika Datta & Mihir Mishra / New Delhi June 28, 2010, 0:34 IST
How the low-cost airline pulled out of losses.
On one of the first flights that Sanjay Aggarwal took on SpiceJet, the low-cost airline he heads, he was given a sandwich packed in a flimsy box. Soon, he found that his lap was full of crumbs from the stale bread. “I did not feel like eating it,” he recalls.
That experience proved salutary. It played a part in the airline’s efforts to upgrade the food served on board, an exercise that — among several others — contributed to SpiceJet’s turnaround in 2009-10, the only listed airline to report a profit for the financial year.
Though the bottom-line is modest (Rs 61.4 crore against a loss of Rs 353.2 crore in the previous year), the airline’s numbers are noteworthy for two reasons. One, barring one quarter, SpiceJet made a profit in every quarter last year (the losses in the July-September quarter were on account of fare cuts in response to similar moves by Jet Airways and Air India which were trying to win back customers after they faced strikes). And two, other listed airlines saw revenues fall (see table on page 3) but SpiceJet, in which the politically well-connected media baron Kalanithi Maran recently bought a 37.7 per cent stake from London-based Kansagra family and US stressed-asset specialists Wilbur Ross, saw its top-line grow 29 per cent.
Aviation analysts say SpiceJet’s turnaround is principally on account of its low-cost fare structure that gave it an advantage as the aviation industry pulled out of the stall last year, growing 16 per cent to 89.36 million passengers after falling 11.2 per cent in 2008-09 (but growth was nowhere near the high of 23 per cent in 2007-08). And it is also true that the four low-cost carriers saw their market share rise to 50 per cent from 35 per cent in 2008-09 (unlisted low-cost leader IndiGo is also reported to have made a profit in the just-ended financial year). But SpiceJet also managed to grow its market share 20 per cent, from 10.3 per cent last year to 12.4 per cent, without adding capacity. Its flight back to profit was, in fact, as much a result of higher spending as of cutbacks. Here’s what it did.
Sweating the assets
Last fiscal, for instance, SpiceJet was able to grow passenger traffic 44 per cent, more than double the industry average. At least half this growth, says Aggarwal, who took charge in December 2008 at the height of the aviation slowdown, was on account of “sweating its assets more than usual” by increasing aircraft utilisation. This metric refers to the number of block hours that an aircraft flies in a day and is a key way for airlines to maximise revenue. By focusing attention on ground-handling and refueling times, and re-jigging airline schedules, SpiceJet was able to raise aircraft utilisation to 12.5 hours a day from 10.5 hours in 2008-09 — significantly higher than Kingfisher’s 9.5 hours, Jet’s 10.5 hours and Air India’s 8.5 hours.
This alone helped lower SpiceJet’s cost base. Today, as a result of better aircraft utilisation, SpiceJet’s cost per available seat km (a measure of per-seat operating costs) is Rs 2.30, much lower than that of competing airlines like Kingfisher and Jet’s which have around 60 per cent of their capacity in low-cost operations.
Focusing on costs often entails more than just cutbacks. So although SpiceJet took such obvious steps as freezing salaries and curtailing non-essential expenditure, it also focused on maximising cost benefits. Globally, fuel costs account for roughly a fourth of an airline’s expenses; in India, the proportion is much higher at about 40 per cent, mainly on account of the high local taxes that state governments charge. Managing fuel consumption, therefore, is critical to profitability. SpiceJet’s solutions for achieving this were not strikingly novel in terms of industry practice but they do highlight the virtues of diligent cost management.
One of the ways the airline did this was by focusing on what Aggarwal calls “smart flying”. This involves getting pilots to adjust ascent and descent profiles to yield significant cost benefits. For instance, pilots were asked to ensure that aircraft travelling short distances did not climb too high and those flying longer distances climbed quickly (the broad rule being that the climb should be directly proportionate to the distance the aircraft is flying). Also, fewer “hard landings” lower the need for aircraft repair.
Meanwhile, adds Aggarwal, there were benefits to be derived from sheer payment discipline. Several airlines owed the oil companies fuel dues — Air India owes over Rs 1,200 crore and Kingfisher Rs 800 crore — but Aggarwal says SpiceJet was able to embed a 15 per cent discount in the fuel contracts it negotiated by “paying its bills on time”. Likewise for airport and aviation charges. The cutbacks are evident in the 14 per cent fall in expenditure on fuel in 2009-10.
“Cost avoidance,” as Aggarwal puts it, also helped. For instance, the airline saved about Rs 1 crore by relocating its training simulators from Hong Kong and Dubai, and signing a three-year maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO) contract with Malaysian Airlines instead.
Fix the product
In any service-oriented business, creating passenger preference can only be achieved through “product” and “people”. Yet, one of the big challenges of running low-cost airlines is perception. “We had to prove that low cost does not mean low quality,” says Aggarwal.
Part of this challenge was addressed through SpiceJet’s contrarian move of upping its marketing budgets significantly, but the perception problem proved a particular hurdle when it came to hiring and training people to meet Aggarwal’s objective of creating a dynamic talent pool. Unsurprisingly, few people wanted to work for a low-cost carrier. “We were looking for people with energy and passion but discovered that we first needed to tell our own story of why we are a better place to work,” he says.
The exercise in selling the SpiceJet story and upgrading hiring requirements paid off in terms of SpiceJet’s efforts to upgrade the food it served on board. On the basis of feedback from the cabin crew, the airline introduced a tea and coffee service when it became apparent that most Indian passengers demanded this, especially on morning flights. The airline also introduced kathi rolls on its snack menu and utthapams and parathas for breakfast after talking to cabin attendants.
Negotiations with suppliers also ensured that the quality of food was upgraded so that Aggarwal’s experience of stale, crumbling bread was not repeated. The result of this was a 200 per cent increase in food sales last year, though Aggarwal says this was partly on account of the higher number of passengers SpiceJet flew. Food sales do not contribute significantly to revenues — just about 1.5 per cent — but a decent on-board menu can ensure a high passenger conversion rate of as much as 25 per cent.
As part of the exercise of “fixing the product”, Aggarwal says more people were hired to maintain the interior of the aircraft, carpeting on board was changed and equipment painted more frequently. Its fleet of 20 aircraft is washed every three days against once a week before. The rule of thumb was to cut expenditure where it made sense, Aggarwal explains, but not where it would harm the product.
Analysts have suggested that SpiceJet found it easier to navigate itself back to profit because it does not have international operations like Jet Airways and Kingfisher do — international passenger traffic grew only 8.8 per cent last year. This is true for Jet Airways, for which international operations account for 59 per cent of its revenues, but less so for Kingfisher which derives just 10 per cent of its revenues from international operations.
SpiceJet’s biggest challenge, therefore, could be looming ahead as it gets ready for international operations from August, starting with short-haul destinations such as Male, Dhaka and Colombo (it has reapplied for regulatory permission for the last-named route after being turned down once). Aggarwal counters that the airline’s international route choices will increase aircraft utilisation since, for instance, a Delhi-Chennai flight can add on passengers for an onward journey to Sri Lanka. Still, given the slow-pick-up in international travel, globalisation will be SpiceJet’s next big test.
How the low-cost airline pulled out of losses.
On one of the first flights that Sanjay Aggarwal took on SpiceJet, the low-cost airline he heads, he was given a sandwich packed in a flimsy box. Soon, he found that his lap was full of crumbs from the stale bread. “I did not feel like eating it,” he recalls.
That experience proved salutary. It played a part in the airline’s efforts to upgrade the food served on board, an exercise that — among several others — contributed to SpiceJet’s turnaround in 2009-10, the only listed airline to report a profit for the financial year.
Though the bottom-line is modest (Rs 61.4 crore against a loss of Rs 353.2 crore in the previous year), the airline’s numbers are noteworthy for two reasons. One, barring one quarter, SpiceJet made a profit in every quarter last year (the losses in the July-September quarter were on account of fare cuts in response to similar moves by Jet Airways and Air India which were trying to win back customers after they faced strikes). And two, other listed airlines saw revenues fall (see table on page 3) but SpiceJet, in which the politically well-connected media baron Kalanithi Maran recently bought a 37.7 per cent stake from London-based Kansagra family and US stressed-asset specialists Wilbur Ross, saw its top-line grow 29 per cent.
Aviation analysts say SpiceJet’s turnaround is principally on account of its low-cost fare structure that gave it an advantage as the aviation industry pulled out of the stall last year, growing 16 per cent to 89.36 million passengers after falling 11.2 per cent in 2008-09 (but growth was nowhere near the high of 23 per cent in 2007-08). And it is also true that the four low-cost carriers saw their market share rise to 50 per cent from 35 per cent in 2008-09 (unlisted low-cost leader IndiGo is also reported to have made a profit in the just-ended financial year). But SpiceJet also managed to grow its market share 20 per cent, from 10.3 per cent last year to 12.4 per cent, without adding capacity. Its flight back to profit was, in fact, as much a result of higher spending as of cutbacks. Here’s what it did.
Sweating the assets
Last fiscal, for instance, SpiceJet was able to grow passenger traffic 44 per cent, more than double the industry average. At least half this growth, says Aggarwal, who took charge in December 2008 at the height of the aviation slowdown, was on account of “sweating its assets more than usual” by increasing aircraft utilisation. This metric refers to the number of block hours that an aircraft flies in a day and is a key way for airlines to maximise revenue. By focusing attention on ground-handling and refueling times, and re-jigging airline schedules, SpiceJet was able to raise aircraft utilisation to 12.5 hours a day from 10.5 hours in 2008-09 — significantly higher than Kingfisher’s 9.5 hours, Jet’s 10.5 hours and Air India’s 8.5 hours.
This alone helped lower SpiceJet’s cost base. Today, as a result of better aircraft utilisation, SpiceJet’s cost per available seat km (a measure of per-seat operating costs) is Rs 2.30, much lower than that of competing airlines like Kingfisher and Jet’s which have around 60 per cent of their capacity in low-cost operations.
Focusing on costs often entails more than just cutbacks. So although SpiceJet took such obvious steps as freezing salaries and curtailing non-essential expenditure, it also focused on maximising cost benefits. Globally, fuel costs account for roughly a fourth of an airline’s expenses; in India, the proportion is much higher at about 40 per cent, mainly on account of the high local taxes that state governments charge. Managing fuel consumption, therefore, is critical to profitability. SpiceJet’s solutions for achieving this were not strikingly novel in terms of industry practice but they do highlight the virtues of diligent cost management.
One of the ways the airline did this was by focusing on what Aggarwal calls “smart flying”. This involves getting pilots to adjust ascent and descent profiles to yield significant cost benefits. For instance, pilots were asked to ensure that aircraft travelling short distances did not climb too high and those flying longer distances climbed quickly (the broad rule being that the climb should be directly proportionate to the distance the aircraft is flying). Also, fewer “hard landings” lower the need for aircraft repair.
Meanwhile, adds Aggarwal, there were benefits to be derived from sheer payment discipline. Several airlines owed the oil companies fuel dues — Air India owes over Rs 1,200 crore and Kingfisher Rs 800 crore — but Aggarwal says SpiceJet was able to embed a 15 per cent discount in the fuel contracts it negotiated by “paying its bills on time”. Likewise for airport and aviation charges. The cutbacks are evident in the 14 per cent fall in expenditure on fuel in 2009-10.
“Cost avoidance,” as Aggarwal puts it, also helped. For instance, the airline saved about Rs 1 crore by relocating its training simulators from Hong Kong and Dubai, and signing a three-year maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO) contract with Malaysian Airlines instead.
Fix the product
In any service-oriented business, creating passenger preference can only be achieved through “product” and “people”. Yet, one of the big challenges of running low-cost airlines is perception. “We had to prove that low cost does not mean low quality,” says Aggarwal.
Part of this challenge was addressed through SpiceJet’s contrarian move of upping its marketing budgets significantly, but the perception problem proved a particular hurdle when it came to hiring and training people to meet Aggarwal’s objective of creating a dynamic talent pool. Unsurprisingly, few people wanted to work for a low-cost carrier. “We were looking for people with energy and passion but discovered that we first needed to tell our own story of why we are a better place to work,” he says.
The exercise in selling the SpiceJet story and upgrading hiring requirements paid off in terms of SpiceJet’s efforts to upgrade the food it served on board. On the basis of feedback from the cabin crew, the airline introduced a tea and coffee service when it became apparent that most Indian passengers demanded this, especially on morning flights. The airline also introduced kathi rolls on its snack menu and utthapams and parathas for breakfast after talking to cabin attendants.
Negotiations with suppliers also ensured that the quality of food was upgraded so that Aggarwal’s experience of stale, crumbling bread was not repeated. The result of this was a 200 per cent increase in food sales last year, though Aggarwal says this was partly on account of the higher number of passengers SpiceJet flew. Food sales do not contribute significantly to revenues — just about 1.5 per cent — but a decent on-board menu can ensure a high passenger conversion rate of as much as 25 per cent.
As part of the exercise of “fixing the product”, Aggarwal says more people were hired to maintain the interior of the aircraft, carpeting on board was changed and equipment painted more frequently. Its fleet of 20 aircraft is washed every three days against once a week before. The rule of thumb was to cut expenditure where it made sense, Aggarwal explains, but not where it would harm the product.
Analysts have suggested that SpiceJet found it easier to navigate itself back to profit because it does not have international operations like Jet Airways and Kingfisher do — international passenger traffic grew only 8.8 per cent last year. This is true for Jet Airways, for which international operations account for 59 per cent of its revenues, but less so for Kingfisher which derives just 10 per cent of its revenues from international operations.
SpiceJet’s biggest challenge, therefore, could be looming ahead as it gets ready for international operations from August, starting with short-haul destinations such as Male, Dhaka and Colombo (it has reapplied for regulatory permission for the last-named route after being turned down once). Aggarwal counters that the airline’s international route choices will increase aircraft utilisation since, for instance, a Delhi-Chennai flight can add on passengers for an onward journey to Sri Lanka. Still, given the slow-pick-up in international travel, globalisation will be SpiceJet’s next big test.
Year : 2050 Place : IBM , USA
(Two Americans Talking)
Currency Conversion Rate : INR 1 Rs = USD $ 100
Alex: Hi John, you didn't come yesterday to office?
John: Yeah, I was in Indian Embassy for stamping.
Alex: Oh really, what happened, I heard that nowadays it has become very strict.
John: Yeah, but I managed to get it.
Alex: How long it took to get it stamped?
John: Oh, it was nasty man, long queue. Bill Gates was standing in front of me and they played with him like anything. That's why it got delayed. I went there at 2 AM itself and waited and returned by 4 PM .
Alex: Really? In India , it is a matter of an hour to get stamped for USA
John: Yeah, but that is because who in India will be interested in coming to USA man, their economy has been booming.
Alex: So, when are you leaving?
John: Anytime, after receiving my tickets from the client in India and you know, I will be getting a chance to fly Air-India. Sort of dream come true.
Alex: How long are you going to stay in India .
John: What do you mean by how long? I will be settled in India , my company has promised me that they will process my Hara Patta ..(green card)
Alex: Really, lucky person man, it is very difficult to get a Hara Patta in India .
John: Yeah, that's why, I am planning to marry an Indian girl there.
Alex: But you can find lots of US girls in Hyderabad , Bangalore and Mumbai.
John: But, I prefer Indian girls because they are beautiful and cultured.
Alex: Where did you get the offer, Hyderabad?
John: Yeah, salary is good there, but cost of living is quite high, it is Rs. 2000/- for a single room accommodation.
Alex: I see, that's too much for US people, Rs.1/- =$100/-. Oh God! What about in Bangalore, Mumbai?
John: No idea, but it is less than what we have in Hyderabad. It is like the world headquarters of software
Alex: I heard, almost all the Indians are having one personal Robot for help.
John: You can get a BMW car for Rs. 5000/-, and a personal Robot for less than Rs.7500/-. But my dream
is to purchase Ambassador, which costs Rs.2 ,00,000/- but has got a lovely design.
Alex: By the way, who is your client?
John: Subbarao and Apparao Associates, a pure Indian company, specialising in Embedded Software.
Alex: Oh, really, lucky to work in a pure Indian company. They are really intelligent and unlike American Bodyshoppers who have opened their Fly-by-night outfits in India . Indian companies pay you in full even when you are on bench.
My friend Paul Allen, it seems, used his bench time to visit Bihar, the most liveable place in India , probably world. There you have full freedom and no restrictions. You can do whatever you want! I wonder how that state has perfected that system.
John: Yeah man!, you are right. I hope our Americaalso follows their footsteps.
Alex: How are you going to cope with their language?
John: Why not? From my school days I have been learning Hindi as my first language here at New York . At the Consulate they tested my proficiency in Hindi and were quite impressed by my cent per cent score in TOHIL i.e. Test of Hindi as International Language.
Alex: So, you are going to have fun there.
John: Yeah, I will be travelling in the world's fastest train, world's largest theme park, and the famous Bollywood where you can see actors like, Hrithik, Shah Rukh Khan and all. Esselworld is also near Bollywood.
Alex: You know, the PM is scheduled to visit US next year, he may then relax the number of visas.
John: That's true. Last month, Narayana Murthy visited White House and donated Rs. 2000/- for infrastructure development at aSiliconValleyand has promised more if we follow the model of High-
Tech City of Bangalore . Bill Gates also got a chance of meeting him. Very lucky person.
Alex: But, Indian government is planning to split Narayanamurthy's Infosys.
John: He is a hard worker man, he can build any number of Infosys like this. Every minute he is getting Rs. 1000/-. It seems, if you keep all his money converted as Rs. 100/- notes you can reach Pluto.
Alex: OK, Good Luck John.
John: Same to you Alex. And don't go to Consulate in a "Kurta Pyjama" because they will think you are too Indianised and may doubt you will never come back and hence your Non-Immigrant Visa may get rejected. But don't forget to say " Namaste, aap kaise hai " to the Visa officer at Window 5. It seems he likes that and will not give you a visa if you don't greet him that way.
My Comments:
I apologize that I cannot write the source from where I read and copied this as I have forget from where I copied...
But the above situation is what one should think of ........we wants this INDIA and not the one we are seeing now....
We need to do whatever is needed to be done...........Nothing more nothing less....
Currency Conversion Rate : INR 1 Rs = USD $ 100
Alex: Hi John, you didn't come yesterday to office?
John: Yeah, I was in Indian Embassy for stamping.
Alex: Oh really, what happened, I heard that nowadays it has become very strict.
John: Yeah, but I managed to get it.
Alex: How long it took to get it stamped?
John: Oh, it was nasty man, long queue. Bill Gates was standing in front of me and they played with him like anything. That's why it got delayed. I went there at 2 AM itself and waited and returned by 4 PM .
Alex: Really? In India , it is a matter of an hour to get stamped for USA
John: Yeah, but that is because who in India will be interested in coming to USA man, their economy has been booming.
Alex: So, when are you leaving?
John: Anytime, after receiving my tickets from the client in India and you know, I will be getting a chance to fly Air-India. Sort of dream come true.
Alex: How long are you going to stay in India .
John: What do you mean by how long? I will be settled in India , my company has promised me that they will process my Hara Patta ..(green card)
Alex: Really, lucky person man, it is very difficult to get a Hara Patta in India .
John: Yeah, that's why, I am planning to marry an Indian girl there.
Alex: But you can find lots of US girls in Hyderabad , Bangalore and Mumbai.
John: But, I prefer Indian girls because they are beautiful and cultured.
Alex: Where did you get the offer, Hyderabad?
John: Yeah, salary is good there, but cost of living is quite high, it is Rs. 2000/- for a single room accommodation.
Alex: I see, that's too much for US people, Rs.1/- =$100/-. Oh God! What about in Bangalore, Mumbai?
John: No idea, but it is less than what we have in Hyderabad. It is like the world headquarters of software
Alex: I heard, almost all the Indians are having one personal Robot for help.
John: You can get a BMW car for Rs. 5000/-, and a personal Robot for less than Rs.7500/-. But my dream
is to purchase Ambassador, which costs Rs.2 ,00,000/- but has got a lovely design.
Alex: By the way, who is your client?
John: Subbarao and Apparao Associates, a pure Indian company, specialising in Embedded Software.
Alex: Oh, really, lucky to work in a pure Indian company. They are really intelligent and unlike American Bodyshoppers who have opened their Fly-by-night outfits in India . Indian companies pay you in full even when you are on bench.
My friend Paul Allen, it seems, used his bench time to visit Bihar, the most liveable place in India , probably world. There you have full freedom and no restrictions. You can do whatever you want! I wonder how that state has perfected that system.
John: Yeah man!, you are right. I hope our Americaalso follows their footsteps.
Alex: How are you going to cope with their language?
John: Why not? From my school days I have been learning Hindi as my first language here at New York . At the Consulate they tested my proficiency in Hindi and were quite impressed by my cent per cent score in TOHIL i.e. Test of Hindi as International Language.
Alex: So, you are going to have fun there.
John: Yeah, I will be travelling in the world's fastest train, world's largest theme park, and the famous Bollywood where you can see actors like, Hrithik, Shah Rukh Khan and all. Esselworld is also near Bollywood.
Alex: You know, the PM is scheduled to visit US next year, he may then relax the number of visas.
John: That's true. Last month, Narayana Murthy visited White House and donated Rs. 2000/- for infrastructure development at aSiliconValleyand has promised more if we follow the model of High-
Tech City of Bangalore . Bill Gates also got a chance of meeting him. Very lucky person.
Alex: But, Indian government is planning to split Narayanamurthy's Infosys.
John: He is a hard worker man, he can build any number of Infosys like this. Every minute he is getting Rs. 1000/-. It seems, if you keep all his money converted as Rs. 100/- notes you can reach Pluto.
Alex: OK, Good Luck John.
John: Same to you Alex. And don't go to Consulate in a "Kurta Pyjama" because they will think you are too Indianised and may doubt you will never come back and hence your Non-Immigrant Visa may get rejected. But don't forget to say " Namaste, aap kaise hai " to the Visa officer at Window 5. It seems he likes that and will not give you a visa if you don't greet him that way.
My Comments:
I apologize that I cannot write the source from where I read and copied this as I have forget from where I copied...
But the above situation is what one should think of ........we wants this INDIA and not the one we are seeing now....
We need to do whatever is needed to be done...........Nothing more nothing less....
Friday, June 25, 2010
Essar Oil Declared Winner of Four CBM Blocks.............
25 June 2010, London, UK - Essar Energy plc (LSE:ESSR), the India-focused integrated energy company, today announced that its subsidiary, Essar Oil Limited (BSE:ESOIL), has been declared the winner of four Coal Bed Methane (CBM) exploration blocks following the announcement made by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) yesterday. The CCEA has approved the award of seven exploration blocks under the CBM-IV bid round, which was initiated in October 2009. Of these, Essar Oil has been declared the winner of four quality CBM blocks at the following locations in India:
Block Name Location Acreage Gas in place resources (prospective, per DGH estimates)
RM(E)-CBM-2008/IV Rajmahal (Jharkhand) 1128 sq. Km 91 bcm (3.2 tcf1)
SP(NE)-CBM-2008/IV Sohagpur (Parts of Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh) 339 sq. km 17.21 bcm (0.6 tcf)
TL-CBM-2008/IV Talcher (Orissa) 557 sq. Km 74.55 bcm (2.6 tcf)
IB-CBM-2008/IV IB Valley (Orissa) 209 sq. Km 34.1 bcm (1.2 tcf)
(1) Essar Oil undertook a separate Competent Person Report (CPR) in 2010 which indicated best estimate prospective resources at 4.7 tcf (Advanced Resources International)
Shishir Agrawal, CEO - Essar Exploration & Production Limited, said: "We are delighted with this development. The four new blocks will give us an additional acreage of 2,233 sq. km and in-place prospective resources of over 7.6 tcf of CBM gas, according to the gas in-place resource estimates contained in the information documents issued by the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) at the time of bidding."
Speaking on the development, Naresh Nayyar, CEO of Essar Energy said: "We now have the largest CBM acreage in India. CBM exploration is a key area of development in Essar Oil's E&P business and we have the best technical team that is helping us emerge as a leader in this space. "
Essar Oil has another CBM block at Raniganj, West Bengal, where a Competent Person Report (CPR) has certified recoverable resources of c. 1 tcf. Drilling activities for the second phase are progressing and gas production from the 15 test wells drilled earlier this year has started ramping up with the progressive dewatering of these wells. Ground infrastructure and pipeline for evacuation of the gas are progressing. Customers for the initial gas have already been finalised, and a long-term contract for sale of 2.8 mmscmd of gas has been signed with Matix Fertilisers and Chemicals Limited. The pipeline for supplying the gas is likely to be commissioned shortly and customer sales are due to commence in Q4 2010.
Block Name Location Acreage Gas in place resources (prospective, per DGH estimates)
RM(E)-CBM-2008/IV Rajmahal (Jharkhand) 1128 sq. Km 91 bcm (3.2 tcf1)
SP(NE)-CBM-2008/IV Sohagpur (Parts of Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh) 339 sq. km 17.21 bcm (0.6 tcf)
TL-CBM-2008/IV Talcher (Orissa) 557 sq. Km 74.55 bcm (2.6 tcf)
IB-CBM-2008/IV IB Valley (Orissa) 209 sq. Km 34.1 bcm (1.2 tcf)
(1) Essar Oil undertook a separate Competent Person Report (CPR) in 2010 which indicated best estimate prospective resources at 4.7 tcf (Advanced Resources International)
Shishir Agrawal, CEO - Essar Exploration & Production Limited, said: "We are delighted with this development. The four new blocks will give us an additional acreage of 2,233 sq. km and in-place prospective resources of over 7.6 tcf of CBM gas, according to the gas in-place resource estimates contained in the information documents issued by the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) at the time of bidding."
Speaking on the development, Naresh Nayyar, CEO of Essar Energy said: "We now have the largest CBM acreage in India. CBM exploration is a key area of development in Essar Oil's E&P business and we have the best technical team that is helping us emerge as a leader in this space. "
Essar Oil has another CBM block at Raniganj, West Bengal, where a Competent Person Report (CPR) has certified recoverable resources of c. 1 tcf. Drilling activities for the second phase are progressing and gas production from the 15 test wells drilled earlier this year has started ramping up with the progressive dewatering of these wells. Ground infrastructure and pipeline for evacuation of the gas are progressing. Customers for the initial gas have already been finalised, and a long-term contract for sale of 2.8 mmscmd of gas has been signed with Matix Fertilisers and Chemicals Limited. The pipeline for supplying the gas is likely to be commissioned shortly and customer sales are due to commence in Q4 2010.
Walmart..............
Freinds,
I would like to write on Walmart today.Nothing much to write but some of the important aspect where India needs to buckup.
Well, we all know Walmart name if we are in stock market even atleast in India.
It is a big Super Store where one will be able to find everything one wants and when I say everything , it is everything.From electronics like TV, Ipod, mobile etc etc to flour of wheat, sugar etc...everything.You have not to go anywhere for buying anything else where.......That is the trade mark of Walmart.....
But one thing that catches your eye, is , anything you buy from Walmart,you can return in 15 days and get the money back.No questions asked......Can one believe this?I have seen that myself..........
There is a sepcial counter for returning things....if there is big line then one more person will come to collect that and give back your money...if still more line,there will be 3rd counter to deal with it.....
You just retrun it at the counter and you get the money back..................is it possible in India?Aree....ek bar le liya phir bat khatam.......the shopowner will make all excuses if we go back to return the thing we purchased , even if we will go immidiately.....and here they give 15 days...to return it back....and no questions asked.....
That goes for any store like Best Buy(electronics), JC Penny, Belk(both cloths wear),or any shop...you just go back after 2-3 days or even after a week and they will take it back and return your money......
I would like to write here specifically that, they return your money after you have open the wrapper or seal of what you bought.You have already used the Laptop or PS3 or Ipod and still you return it back to them and you get your money back.........that is called Satisfaction Gaureented......That is the trade mark of whole America.......The whole business work like that way.....in USA......
That is amazing ..isn't it?
Do we think there is any chance it can happen in India?
But if Walmart will come in India, it will happen........and the day Walmart will come...all small shops owners and big shop owners will be closed.....because if Walmart comes and if people can return the thing if not satisfied and will be taken back without any question...who will buy from elsewhere?
There is lots of Online store from where one can buy anything.....but I will talk of Amazon.com.....
Buy anything from Amazon and return back if you are not satisfied and get the money back....No question asked....and when I say, No Questions Asked, it means in REAL........
Let me give you an example....I bought Gillete, Fusion Power replacement Razor cartridge.....from Amazon.com ...some 2 cartridge of 8 packs each and when I used just one of it, I found it was useless....it was not working as smooth as it use to as the trade mark of Gillete and I wrote a message to Amazon and I got the money back in FULL.....I have not send the cartridge back as it will cost me for postages...it is still with me ......but I got the whole amt back........But as the Fusion Razor cartridge was not good, it is still lying with me as I have not used it but without sending those items back, I got the money back.......
Now will that happen in India ?
There is a big difference between India and USA.....and that one has to understand that.Ours is SELLERS market while USA is BUYERS market......
Why is ours a SELLERS market?Because the demand is more then the supply....we have big population and the supply is less....so the shopkeeper always know....if you will not buy someone else will buy......so he don't cares for you....but in USA , consumer is the KING.
What can happen when a country having a population of 130 cr goes out to buy something like at Diwali etc....there will scarcity of things rather then supply......so the shopkeeper knows it very well, if a thing is not sold for the whole year, it will be sold in Diwali.......so why he has to worry about it.....
It is good that we took pride to be an Indian, and I am also a true Indian, but we need to learn what we need to....we can't look through Nelson's eye for what we want to ignore........
We lacks in many ways....and where we lacks, we need to learn from others ....we can't keep on singing the tune...Mera Bharat Mahan....untill we take out the most dangerous Monster named....CORRUPTION...
I can't imagine what India can achieve if there is no Corruption........Corruption is just like in our blood and we don't mind it .It is everywhere.If one is caught violating traffics rules and get caught, one always knows that if one will give 20-50 rupees, one will do aways with it.......that is the problem.....one has to give bribe for doing the right thing.......jo sach hai wahi karna hai...uske liye bhi paisa dena padta hai....have you ever heard like that......but that is a fact in India.....
The big difference between India and Western Countries is , there is no day to day hassels for a common man.....he lives in peace.....here for anything you wants to do....going to any government office, and your whole day is gone..maybe 2-3 days more and still the work is not done...and if one dole out some money , it will be done immidiately.....
That is what India needs to eradicate.......Corruption has now become as big a problem like illetracy........
Jago India Jago......Come out of the hoodoo of blaming USA for everything.......we always speak negative of America......learn what is good what USA does...taking care of their citizen....and that is what is Important......
I would like to write on Walmart today.Nothing much to write but some of the important aspect where India needs to buckup.
Well, we all know Walmart name if we are in stock market even atleast in India.
It is a big Super Store where one will be able to find everything one wants and when I say everything , it is everything.From electronics like TV, Ipod, mobile etc etc to flour of wheat, sugar etc...everything.You have not to go anywhere for buying anything else where.......That is the trade mark of Walmart.....
But one thing that catches your eye, is , anything you buy from Walmart,you can return in 15 days and get the money back.No questions asked......Can one believe this?I have seen that myself..........
There is a sepcial counter for returning things....if there is big line then one more person will come to collect that and give back your money...if still more line,there will be 3rd counter to deal with it.....
You just retrun it at the counter and you get the money back..................is it possible in India?Aree....ek bar le liya phir bat khatam.......the shopowner will make all excuses if we go back to return the thing we purchased , even if we will go immidiately.....and here they give 15 days...to return it back....and no questions asked.....
That goes for any store like Best Buy(electronics), JC Penny, Belk(both cloths wear),or any shop...you just go back after 2-3 days or even after a week and they will take it back and return your money......
I would like to write here specifically that, they return your money after you have open the wrapper or seal of what you bought.You have already used the Laptop or PS3 or Ipod and still you return it back to them and you get your money back.........that is called Satisfaction Gaureented......That is the trade mark of whole America.......The whole business work like that way.....in USA......
That is amazing ..isn't it?
Do we think there is any chance it can happen in India?
But if Walmart will come in India, it will happen........and the day Walmart will come...all small shops owners and big shop owners will be closed.....because if Walmart comes and if people can return the thing if not satisfied and will be taken back without any question...who will buy from elsewhere?
There is lots of Online store from where one can buy anything.....but I will talk of Amazon.com.....
Buy anything from Amazon and return back if you are not satisfied and get the money back....No question asked....and when I say, No Questions Asked, it means in REAL........
Let me give you an example....I bought Gillete, Fusion Power replacement Razor cartridge.....from Amazon.com ...some 2 cartridge of 8 packs each and when I used just one of it, I found it was useless....it was not working as smooth as it use to as the trade mark of Gillete and I wrote a message to Amazon and I got the money back in FULL.....I have not send the cartridge back as it will cost me for postages...it is still with me ......but I got the whole amt back........But as the Fusion Razor cartridge was not good, it is still lying with me as I have not used it but without sending those items back, I got the money back.......
Now will that happen in India ?
There is a big difference between India and USA.....and that one has to understand that.Ours is SELLERS market while USA is BUYERS market......
Why is ours a SELLERS market?Because the demand is more then the supply....we have big population and the supply is less....so the shopkeeper always know....if you will not buy someone else will buy......so he don't cares for you....but in USA , consumer is the KING.
What can happen when a country having a population of 130 cr goes out to buy something like at Diwali etc....there will scarcity of things rather then supply......so the shopkeeper knows it very well, if a thing is not sold for the whole year, it will be sold in Diwali.......so why he has to worry about it.....
It is good that we took pride to be an Indian, and I am also a true Indian, but we need to learn what we need to....we can't look through Nelson's eye for what we want to ignore........
We lacks in many ways....and where we lacks, we need to learn from others ....we can't keep on singing the tune...Mera Bharat Mahan....untill we take out the most dangerous Monster named....CORRUPTION...
I can't imagine what India can achieve if there is no Corruption........Corruption is just like in our blood and we don't mind it .It is everywhere.If one is caught violating traffics rules and get caught, one always knows that if one will give 20-50 rupees, one will do aways with it.......that is the problem.....one has to give bribe for doing the right thing.......jo sach hai wahi karna hai...uske liye bhi paisa dena padta hai....have you ever heard like that......but that is a fact in India.....
The big difference between India and Western Countries is , there is no day to day hassels for a common man.....he lives in peace.....here for anything you wants to do....going to any government office, and your whole day is gone..maybe 2-3 days more and still the work is not done...and if one dole out some money , it will be done immidiately.....
That is what India needs to eradicate.......Corruption has now become as big a problem like illetracy........
Jago India Jago......Come out of the hoodoo of blaming USA for everything.......we always speak negative of America......learn what is good what USA does...taking care of their citizen....and that is what is Important......
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Cable Corp enters city realty, to invest Rs 1k cr ...........cmp..Rs.26.20
Cable Corp to develop 22 acres in the western suburb
The company will run the real estate business through its subsidiary Cable Corporation India Projects
WESTERN suburbs of Mumbai are hot property. With an increasing demand for residential property, builders are converting old factories into residential projects. While players like Raheja, Kanakia Spaces, Sheth Developers and Oberoi have already made their presence felt, others are fast making an entry. In a recent move, Cable Corporation of India (CCI) marked its entry into real estate with a Rs 1,000 croreinvestment plan. The company is launching a new project on its erstwhile factory, which has now been relocated to Nashik.
Located in the western suburbs of Mumbai, this is a mixed-use project. The 22-acre plot of land is equivalent to about 3.5 mln sq ft of saleable area. A power cable company, CCI will operate in the real estate business through its subsidiary Cable Corporation India Projects. This would include residential, commercial, retail and hospitality segment of which a little less than 2.5 mln sq ft would be dedicated to residential segment. “The overall cost of production in Nashik was much less as compared to Mumbai due to various state duties like octroi that prompted us to shift this factory to Nashik where we have our other units,” said Hiten Khatau, chairman and managing director, CCI. Thus, it was a natural progression from being a landowner to a developer, said Mr Khatau.
Touted as a luxurious project, the project would have 2 and 3 BHK flats, costing between Rs 70 lakh to Rs 1 crore. The company is expecting to fetch Rs 2,500-3,000 crore from the project at the end of five to seven years. Another builder, Sunteck Realty, is developing a residential project closer to the above project. “A 1.5 acre highend project, this land was bought from Pioneer Embroideries which had its factory in that place,” said Kamal Khaitan, managing director, Sunteck Realty. However, these will have only 3 and 4 BHK flats. The average price would be closer to a Rs 1 crore.
Easy accessibility to the highway and better infrastructure are the main reasons why developers are going to western suburbs, added Mr Khaitan.
Supriya Verma Mishra ET INTELLIGENCE GROUP
My Comments:
Cable Corp a Khaitan gr of Co has huge accumalated loss.But many Cos having huge land bank will able to turn around and can turn the tide.
Cable Corp seems one of them as can be seen from the above article.They have huge land bank of 22 acres and are investing 1000 cr.......
Take your own call.......
The company will run the real estate business through its subsidiary Cable Corporation India Projects
WESTERN suburbs of Mumbai are hot property. With an increasing demand for residential property, builders are converting old factories into residential projects. While players like Raheja, Kanakia Spaces, Sheth Developers and Oberoi have already made their presence felt, others are fast making an entry. In a recent move, Cable Corporation of India (CCI) marked its entry into real estate with a Rs 1,000 croreinvestment plan. The company is launching a new project on its erstwhile factory, which has now been relocated to Nashik.
Located in the western suburbs of Mumbai, this is a mixed-use project. The 22-acre plot of land is equivalent to about 3.5 mln sq ft of saleable area. A power cable company, CCI will operate in the real estate business through its subsidiary Cable Corporation India Projects. This would include residential, commercial, retail and hospitality segment of which a little less than 2.5 mln sq ft would be dedicated to residential segment. “The overall cost of production in Nashik was much less as compared to Mumbai due to various state duties like octroi that prompted us to shift this factory to Nashik where we have our other units,” said Hiten Khatau, chairman and managing director, CCI. Thus, it was a natural progression from being a landowner to a developer, said Mr Khatau.
Touted as a luxurious project, the project would have 2 and 3 BHK flats, costing between Rs 70 lakh to Rs 1 crore. The company is expecting to fetch Rs 2,500-3,000 crore from the project at the end of five to seven years. Another builder, Sunteck Realty, is developing a residential project closer to the above project. “A 1.5 acre highend project, this land was bought from Pioneer Embroideries which had its factory in that place,” said Kamal Khaitan, managing director, Sunteck Realty. However, these will have only 3 and 4 BHK flats. The average price would be closer to a Rs 1 crore.
Easy accessibility to the highway and better infrastructure are the main reasons why developers are going to western suburbs, added Mr Khaitan.
Supriya Verma Mishra ET INTELLIGENCE GROUP
My Comments:
Cable Corp a Khaitan gr of Co has huge accumalated loss.But many Cos having huge land bank will able to turn around and can turn the tide.
Cable Corp seems one of them as can be seen from the above article.They have huge land bank of 22 acres and are investing 1000 cr.......
Take your own call.......
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Talk of my old calls..............
I have been regularly recomending Mcnally Bharat since my mmb days as well as here from Rs 50...After touching 52 week high of 385....and now at 275, I am seeing that Fedility Funds has taken stake in Mcnally Bharat at Rs 275!So it is already a 5 bagger ....
I have been recomending Jyoti Ltd since mid 30's or mid 20's and even at 75 I again wrote that it is still good to buy.Today it made a 52 week high of 99 means a 3 bagger and long way to go.....
Scan Point Geomatics which I recomended at 17 is making new highs as well at 60....
Aegis Logistic is making new high at 389....
Genesys Int recomended at 100 is making new high at 437.....
IFB Ind making new highs at 148.........
Lumax Ind recomended at 95 now at 278.......
Petron Eng at 169 making 52 week high at 453..........
SKS Logistic my very old call.....making waves .....41.....
SRF Ltd has started moving...............247......
Stride Arcolab..........418...........
There are many more......the list is very long...............
I have been writing time and again....this year can turn out to be the year for Small/Midcap and Penny stock.....so watch out for these type of stocks.................
I have been recomending Jyoti Ltd since mid 30's or mid 20's and even at 75 I again wrote that it is still good to buy.Today it made a 52 week high of 99 means a 3 bagger and long way to go.....
Scan Point Geomatics which I recomended at 17 is making new highs as well at 60....
Aegis Logistic is making new high at 389....
Genesys Int recomended at 100 is making new high at 437.....
IFB Ind making new highs at 148.........
Lumax Ind recomended at 95 now at 278.......
Petron Eng at 169 making 52 week high at 453..........
SKS Logistic my very old call.....making waves .....41.....
SRF Ltd has started moving...............247......
Stride Arcolab..........418...........
There are many more......the list is very long...............
I have been writing time and again....this year can turn out to be the year for Small/Midcap and Penny stock.....so watch out for these type of stocks.................
India Needs Your Ideas ......Coming directly from Horses Mouth....
Perhaps no one else knows better than NR Narayana Murthy the thrills of building an enterprise. On the eve of Power of Ideas 2010, he spoke with Archana Rai about his entrepreneurial journey, hoping more Indians will join this league of ideas nation
HE is one of modern India’s most celebrated entrepreneurs, a person who dared to strike out on his own a full decade before economic reforms transformed the business landscape of the country. In 1981, when Nagavara Ramaraya Narayana Murthy persuaded a group of six engineers who worked with him at Punebased software firm Patni Communication Systems to quit their jobs and join him to build a software services export firm, he was selling an idea whose time was yet to come. But such is the power of ideas, it transformed Mr Murthy’s dream into what is today’s Infosys Technologies—the country’s second largest software services firm with an estimated market cap of $35 billion.
When ET approached him to mentor the second edition of The Power of Ideas programme, his excitement was palpable. “Entrepreneurship is the only instrument to make this a better country. I will encourage any initiative that encourages entrepreneurship,” he said. And why wouldn’t he. Afterall his three-decade long journey has had its share of ups and downs and Mr Murthy cherishes every moment of it.
When Mr Murthy started, the other partners were pretty young and in junior positions. Kris and Nandan had a year’s experience each. Dinesh and Shibulal had two years, Ashok had one years experience and only Raghavan was older than Mr Murthy, who had by then already launched an enterprise, closed it down and reentered the world of salaried work. So when the idea of Infosys took wing, Mr Murthy had a fair notion of what he was staking to follow a dream. “The unstated assumption was that if this new venture failed, the others on the team would take up a job. Whereas I was married, had a daughter, I was not even sure I would get a job if we failed. There was TCS. Wipro was not even there so there were concerns,” he says. But what clinched the decision was the support from his wife Sudha Murty. “My wife said let’s do this. Afterall, I am working,” says the IT veteran, as he looks back at the long career that has propelled him, and the company he co-founded, to a position of global eminence. This ability to evaluate risk appropriately has been a central feature of Mr Murthy’s career. In the late 1970s before he founded Infosys, he set up a company called Softronics in Pune that offered software services for the domestic market. “But very quickly I realised that the domestic market was not ready for software entrepreneurs, so within a matter of a year or so I closed down Softronics and joined Patni Communication,” he says, underscoring the need for entrepreneurs to be alert to changing dynamics.
“And later, at an appropriate time, when I realised that there was an opportunity to look at international markets I founded Infosys,” he adds. As economic liberalisation took India by storm in the early 1990s, Infosys would go onto become the poster child of a country newly emergent on the world economic stage. Murthy and his team of co-founders who first offered shares in their fledgling firm to the Indian public in 1993 would ride the wave of India’s software services boom in the following years leading up to the very successful listing of Infosys stock on the US NASDAQ exchange in 1998. The next year the company raked in $100 million in revenues and by year 2004, would go onto reach the milestone of $1 billion in revenues. Today the market value of the country’s second largest software services firm is estimated at $35 billion.
But it has been a hard and arduous climb from very modest beginnings. The eighties were a decade of toil for the team as the environment was very business unfriendly. It took 50 visits to Delhi and sometimes up to two or three years before they could get a license to import a computer, their first telephone connection came a year after they applied for it.
“We did not have any data communication facilities. We have even have faxed software code. Can you imagine that?” says Mr Murthy, describing the importance of perseverance in the early days of building an enterprise.
As their customers were overseas, the Infosys team would require ten days to get an approval from the Reserve Bank of India to travel abroad. The fledgling company also struggled to raise finances in the absence of a venture capital system and the outright refusal by commercial banks to fund a venture that offered no collateral security.
Even worse, for a business that relied entirely on the number of skilled engineers on the rolls, attracting talent was an uphill task. “We couldn’t hire consultants from outside of India and the mindset of most youngsters was to get a job in government or in a large private sector company, those were very difficult times.”
Around nine years after Infosys was set up, the founders felt they were going nowhere as the friction to business was extremely high. “We thought we would sell the business for some million dollars, but fortunately we all sat down, discussed & debated,” Mr Murthy reminisces. “We chose to run the full marathon and I am glad that we took that decision.”
NRN SPEAK
ON SHARING WEALTH
Right in the beginning, I took the view that I will have to distribute the equity in a much fairer manner among the seven of us. Later we decided we will have to give stock options to every employee, including the janitors.
ON DEALING WITH RISK
I have always said that ships are safest in the harbour, but they are not meant to be there. They have to go into the high seas, weather storms & reach the comfort of a safe destination. It is the same with entrepreneurs as well.
ON SACRIFICES
Whenever you take up an idea that transforms the world and brings a major difference to society and the market, it requires tremendous sacrifice. One has to accept that the sacrifices will be commensurate with the glory that you get.
ON INNOVATION
Professor Peter Drucker once said there are two important ingredients for success of an entrepreneur—innovation and marketing & sales. With innovation you can say that my idea does something that nobody else has done so far.
HE is one of modern India’s most celebrated entrepreneurs, a person who dared to strike out on his own a full decade before economic reforms transformed the business landscape of the country. In 1981, when Nagavara Ramaraya Narayana Murthy persuaded a group of six engineers who worked with him at Punebased software firm Patni Communication Systems to quit their jobs and join him to build a software services export firm, he was selling an idea whose time was yet to come. But such is the power of ideas, it transformed Mr Murthy’s dream into what is today’s Infosys Technologies—the country’s second largest software services firm with an estimated market cap of $35 billion.
When ET approached him to mentor the second edition of The Power of Ideas programme, his excitement was palpable. “Entrepreneurship is the only instrument to make this a better country. I will encourage any initiative that encourages entrepreneurship,” he said. And why wouldn’t he. Afterall his three-decade long journey has had its share of ups and downs and Mr Murthy cherishes every moment of it.
When Mr Murthy started, the other partners were pretty young and in junior positions. Kris and Nandan had a year’s experience each. Dinesh and Shibulal had two years, Ashok had one years experience and only Raghavan was older than Mr Murthy, who had by then already launched an enterprise, closed it down and reentered the world of salaried work. So when the idea of Infosys took wing, Mr Murthy had a fair notion of what he was staking to follow a dream. “The unstated assumption was that if this new venture failed, the others on the team would take up a job. Whereas I was married, had a daughter, I was not even sure I would get a job if we failed. There was TCS. Wipro was not even there so there were concerns,” he says. But what clinched the decision was the support from his wife Sudha Murty. “My wife said let’s do this. Afterall, I am working,” says the IT veteran, as he looks back at the long career that has propelled him, and the company he co-founded, to a position of global eminence. This ability to evaluate risk appropriately has been a central feature of Mr Murthy’s career. In the late 1970s before he founded Infosys, he set up a company called Softronics in Pune that offered software services for the domestic market. “But very quickly I realised that the domestic market was not ready for software entrepreneurs, so within a matter of a year or so I closed down Softronics and joined Patni Communication,” he says, underscoring the need for entrepreneurs to be alert to changing dynamics.
“And later, at an appropriate time, when I realised that there was an opportunity to look at international markets I founded Infosys,” he adds. As economic liberalisation took India by storm in the early 1990s, Infosys would go onto become the poster child of a country newly emergent on the world economic stage. Murthy and his team of co-founders who first offered shares in their fledgling firm to the Indian public in 1993 would ride the wave of India’s software services boom in the following years leading up to the very successful listing of Infosys stock on the US NASDAQ exchange in 1998. The next year the company raked in $100 million in revenues and by year 2004, would go onto reach the milestone of $1 billion in revenues. Today the market value of the country’s second largest software services firm is estimated at $35 billion.
But it has been a hard and arduous climb from very modest beginnings. The eighties were a decade of toil for the team as the environment was very business unfriendly. It took 50 visits to Delhi and sometimes up to two or three years before they could get a license to import a computer, their first telephone connection came a year after they applied for it.
“We did not have any data communication facilities. We have even have faxed software code. Can you imagine that?” says Mr Murthy, describing the importance of perseverance in the early days of building an enterprise.
As their customers were overseas, the Infosys team would require ten days to get an approval from the Reserve Bank of India to travel abroad. The fledgling company also struggled to raise finances in the absence of a venture capital system and the outright refusal by commercial banks to fund a venture that offered no collateral security.
Even worse, for a business that relied entirely on the number of skilled engineers on the rolls, attracting talent was an uphill task. “We couldn’t hire consultants from outside of India and the mindset of most youngsters was to get a job in government or in a large private sector company, those were very difficult times.”
Around nine years after Infosys was set up, the founders felt they were going nowhere as the friction to business was extremely high. “We thought we would sell the business for some million dollars, but fortunately we all sat down, discussed & debated,” Mr Murthy reminisces. “We chose to run the full marathon and I am glad that we took that decision.”
NRN SPEAK
ON SHARING WEALTH
Right in the beginning, I took the view that I will have to distribute the equity in a much fairer manner among the seven of us. Later we decided we will have to give stock options to every employee, including the janitors.
ON DEALING WITH RISK
I have always said that ships are safest in the harbour, but they are not meant to be there. They have to go into the high seas, weather storms & reach the comfort of a safe destination. It is the same with entrepreneurs as well.
ON SACRIFICES
Whenever you take up an idea that transforms the world and brings a major difference to society and the market, it requires tremendous sacrifice. One has to accept that the sacrifices will be commensurate with the glory that you get.
ON INNOVATION
Professor Peter Drucker once said there are two important ingredients for success of an entrepreneur—innovation and marketing & sales. With innovation you can say that my idea does something that nobody else has done so far.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Beijing 'liberates' the yuan.....against all the presumption that it will not happen....
Beijing 'liberates' the yuan
Venkatesan Vembu / DNASunday, June 20, 2010 1:49 IST Email
Hong Kong: China on Saturday signalled a major currency move, indicating it would end the renminbis artificial peg to the US dollar, which gave its exports an unfair trade advantage and brought it to the brink of a trade war with the US.
Citing an improved global economic situation, Chinas centralbank, the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) said it had decided to proceed further with reform of the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate regime and to enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility.
Although the statement ruled out a rapid appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and gave no time-table for the reform, the move was welcomed as an important and correct step which would serve the interests of both China and the world.
Even a gradual appreciation of the renminbi would promote Chinese consumption, marginally correct global trade imbalances, and contribute to global economic stability, said Deutsche Bank economist Jun Ma.
US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner, who has been under pressure from US lawmakers to declare China a currency manipulator, said he welcomed Chinas decision and called for vigorous implementation of the change.
IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn welcomed the move, and said a stronger renminbi will help increase Chinese household income and provide the incentives necessary to reorient investment toward industries that serve the Chinese consumer.
It would also help Chinese policymakers efforts to fight inflation, which last month jumped to a 19-month high of 3.1 per cent, exceeding the governments target.
A renminbi appreciation would also marginally benefit exporters in other emerging economies, including India, and give their central banks a bit of elbow room to allow appreciation of their currencies to tame inflationary pressures.
China pegged its currency to the US dollar nearly two years ago after the global financial crisis caused its exports to collapse. In recent months, after its exports and its economy recovered dramatically, it has come under increasing international pressure from the US in particular, but from other countries as well to end the peg that served to undervalue its currency.
US lawmakers have been pushing the Obama administration to levy high tariffs on imports from China.
China has all along resisted calls for it to allow the renmibi to appreciate, pointing out that the RMB had appreciated against a trade-weighted basket of currency following the slide in the value of the euro ever since the sovereign debt crisis erupted in Europe.
Even so, China was facing isolation at next weeks meeting of leaders of the Group of 20 economies, after US President Barack Obama circulated a letter calling for market-determined exchange rates.
The timing of the (PBoCs) statement will naturally be linked to the forthcoming G20 meeting, points out RBS economist Ben Simpfendorfer. But while a more flexible currency would be welcomed by Chinas critics, it is clearly unlikely to appease those calling for large revaluation. In his estimation, tensions will persist, especially heading into the US Congressional in November, particularly if the crisis in Europe worsens.
In announcing the move on Saturday, the central bank said the global economy is gradually recovering and that the recovery and upturn of the Chinese economy has become more solid with the enhanced economic stability.
Not everyone is, however, convinced that the renmimbi will still be allowed to appreciate against the US dollar. This is just a gesture, pure rhetoric, and does not mean an immediate revaluation of the yuan is imminent, says Qu Qing, analyst at a Shanghai securities firm.
Credit Suisse economist Dong Tao too said the PBoC announcement was a gesture to the US, but without a specific timetable... The pressure is on China now to move its exchange rate ahead of the G20 summit.
Zhao Qingming, an analyst at China Construction Bank, suggested that although the central bank statement meant that China would exit from the dollar peg, the effect may be that the yuan may depreciate not appreciate against the dollar.
Simpfendorfer too concedes that the reference in the central bank statement to a currency basket will raise speculation of yuan depreciation in the event of further strength in the US dollar. But he adds that while such a move was theoretically possible, it would weaken Chinas repeated assertion that a stable yuan was important for global recovery.
My Comments:
All the experts and analyst were not predicting any Chinese curreny to appreciate.I have been talking on this since 3-4 months.It is still not sure how much the curreny Yuan will appreciate but it is happening .
Now we have to see how much Yuan appreciates and how much difference it makes in trade deficit between USA and China........but it will be positive for USA.....
Remember, USA is the growth engine for the whole world as it comsumes 30% of the world products and USA will remain the growth engine for next 20 yrs atleast untill some other country takes over that much of consumption.....so better USA economy becomes stronger and people there buys things more and more...............
Venkatesan Vembu / DNASunday, June 20, 2010 1:49 IST Email
Hong Kong: China on Saturday signalled a major currency move, indicating it would end the renminbis artificial peg to the US dollar, which gave its exports an unfair trade advantage and brought it to the brink of a trade war with the US.
Citing an improved global economic situation, Chinas centralbank, the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) said it had decided to proceed further with reform of the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate regime and to enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility.
Although the statement ruled out a rapid appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and gave no time-table for the reform, the move was welcomed as an important and correct step which would serve the interests of both China and the world.
Even a gradual appreciation of the renminbi would promote Chinese consumption, marginally correct global trade imbalances, and contribute to global economic stability, said Deutsche Bank economist Jun Ma.
US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner, who has been under pressure from US lawmakers to declare China a currency manipulator, said he welcomed Chinas decision and called for vigorous implementation of the change.
IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn welcomed the move, and said a stronger renminbi will help increase Chinese household income and provide the incentives necessary to reorient investment toward industries that serve the Chinese consumer.
It would also help Chinese policymakers efforts to fight inflation, which last month jumped to a 19-month high of 3.1 per cent, exceeding the governments target.
A renminbi appreciation would also marginally benefit exporters in other emerging economies, including India, and give their central banks a bit of elbow room to allow appreciation of their currencies to tame inflationary pressures.
China pegged its currency to the US dollar nearly two years ago after the global financial crisis caused its exports to collapse. In recent months, after its exports and its economy recovered dramatically, it has come under increasing international pressure from the US in particular, but from other countries as well to end the peg that served to undervalue its currency.
US lawmakers have been pushing the Obama administration to levy high tariffs on imports from China.
China has all along resisted calls for it to allow the renmibi to appreciate, pointing out that the RMB had appreciated against a trade-weighted basket of currency following the slide in the value of the euro ever since the sovereign debt crisis erupted in Europe.
Even so, China was facing isolation at next weeks meeting of leaders of the Group of 20 economies, after US President Barack Obama circulated a letter calling for market-determined exchange rates.
The timing of the (PBoCs) statement will naturally be linked to the forthcoming G20 meeting, points out RBS economist Ben Simpfendorfer. But while a more flexible currency would be welcomed by Chinas critics, it is clearly unlikely to appease those calling for large revaluation. In his estimation, tensions will persist, especially heading into the US Congressional in November, particularly if the crisis in Europe worsens.
In announcing the move on Saturday, the central bank said the global economy is gradually recovering and that the recovery and upturn of the Chinese economy has become more solid with the enhanced economic stability.
Not everyone is, however, convinced that the renmimbi will still be allowed to appreciate against the US dollar. This is just a gesture, pure rhetoric, and does not mean an immediate revaluation of the yuan is imminent, says Qu Qing, analyst at a Shanghai securities firm.
Credit Suisse economist Dong Tao too said the PBoC announcement was a gesture to the US, but without a specific timetable... The pressure is on China now to move its exchange rate ahead of the G20 summit.
Zhao Qingming, an analyst at China Construction Bank, suggested that although the central bank statement meant that China would exit from the dollar peg, the effect may be that the yuan may depreciate not appreciate against the dollar.
Simpfendorfer too concedes that the reference in the central bank statement to a currency basket will raise speculation of yuan depreciation in the event of further strength in the US dollar. But he adds that while such a move was theoretically possible, it would weaken Chinas repeated assertion that a stable yuan was important for global recovery.
My Comments:
All the experts and analyst were not predicting any Chinese curreny to appreciate.I have been talking on this since 3-4 months.It is still not sure how much the curreny Yuan will appreciate but it is happening .
Now we have to see how much Yuan appreciates and how much difference it makes in trade deficit between USA and China........but it will be positive for USA.....
Remember, USA is the growth engine for the whole world as it comsumes 30% of the world products and USA will remain the growth engine for next 20 yrs atleast untill some other country takes over that much of consumption.....so better USA economy becomes stronger and people there buys things more and more...............
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Mukesh Ambani's broadband plan? Kar lo duniya mutthi mein-II
Mumbai: In the Information Age, he who owns the bandwidth owns the game. Nobody knows this better than Mukesh Ambani.
And own he does, 20 megahertz of it, for fourth-generation broadband rollout.
Now, if you are Mukesh Ambani, history shows you tend to think huge, years ahead, and then connect the dots.
The attempt here is not to be Mukesh’s hagiographer; there’senough empirical evidence of very large-scale execution achievement.
So what’s the broadband mega picture Mukesh has drawn?
One can only indulge in some logical guesswork. First of which is that Mukesh rolls out broadband services for folks like you, me and companies, or ‘the subscribers’.
Now what are these services? It could be as varied offering movies in hi-def, multiplayer platforms for online games on the fly, news and data services such as helping companies jigger hi-definition video-conferencing...
One thing that’s unlikely is a return to voice telephony because broadband licensing terms don’t allow it — only Universal Access Service Licence does.
And how would you avail of the services? Through mobile phones, iPad-like devices, laptops, or even the good ol’ desktops and television sets.
Chances are, more than 90% of the delivery will be on mobile phones on the consumer side. That’s the only way the lack of computer penetration in India, which is wallowing at around 5%, can be surmounted.
On the other hand, a substantial chunk of corporate use will be through computers.
Mukesh will offer much more. He will help you pay your bills, buy tickets of all kinds, order food from a restaurant, buy clothes by visually sampling them on your phone, facilitate tuitions, virtual classes ... all this using the ‘fat pipe’ — which is geek for broadband.
He will help companies manage their data by renting his infrastructure (in software, data mean many things, including financial numbers, attendance and salary slips, creating and zipping engineering designs ... all the work that companies do. Video is also data.
All this, however, is the straight part. Mukesh on Friday said he also plans to exponentially grow his retail business, which now has a turnover of $1 billion, to $10 billion in 5 years.
What he didn’t say is growth will be far more exponential after 5 years if India grows at 8%-9% over the next decade, as it is expected to. And when his broadband plugs into his retail business, he will also help you buy a lot of stuff online — practically 90% of what you will need in your daily/weekly/monthly life, using your mobile phone/iPad/PC.
In effect, he will take away business from the neighbourhood mom & pop kiranas, from the neighbourhood malls and supermarkets because, by making geography history, to borrow that all-time great copyline of the beleaguered Iridium satellite project.
By default, he will also lord over India’s largest logistics entity because large physical deliveries will have to be orchestrated using a massive supply chain.
By being with you literally 24x7, in hand, on your mobile, at home or anywhere, Mukesh will own you, the consumer.
He will own you because he will become the King of Convenience, and you, me and everyone else loves convenience.
Who doesn’t want to order groceries sitting at home and have it delivered at the doorstep? Who doesn’t want the convenience of completing non-office chores from home, after a hard day’s work and travel?
If you are Mukesh, you will also do one more thing. You will own a payment gateway embedded in the fat pipe, to collect monies flowing from all those potential billions of personal and corporate transactions. That would essentially mean plugging in a non-banking finance entity or a transaction processing system like those used for credit cards (Reliance Credit Cards!) or even a bank (Reliance Bank!).
Now imagine scale.
On Friday, Mukesh said broadband penetration in India is just 1%. What does that tell you? Only 1.2 crore people have access to it in the country. That may be an overestimate.
Anyway. That also means 99%, or 118.8 crore people, don’t have broadband access, considering India’s estimated population of 120 crore. Get the picture of a gargantuan ecosystem?
One more thing: Mukesh would have paid over Rs 12,000 crore to get the spectrum for his broadband binge. Too much upfront expenditure? In reality, that may not even be a fraction of what he would earn over the next couple of decades — if things go well.
Considering the volume dimensions of the project, Mukesh would’t have to price anything steep, no matter the spectrum fees. Bottom-of-pyramid affordability will more than suffice for telecom’s original price warrior. Remember Monsoon Hungama, circa 2003? Remember his plan then, of rolling all of the things described afore through optic fibre networks? Of Kar lo duniya mutthi mein?
This time round, he is doing the same wirelessly, using airwaves.
All this fantasising, of course, is predicated on the ability of technology to facilitate such an online empire.
On the bandwidth side, at 20 MHz of contiguous spectrum across the country, Mukesh’s got more than twice the 10 MHz that data rivals, the 3G telecom auction winners, have. To boot, they have the spectrum only in some circles, not nationally.
As of now, the technologies Mukesh is riding on — Wimax and Long Term Evolution — are not mass-tested on a scale they need to work in India. That’s the only mountain to climb.
Execution is a non-issue. It’s Mukesh’s middle name.
My Comments:
Execution.......that is the bottomline....
I have written here , planning and execution is the most important factor for completing any project.Remember this always, whether you are working as an employee somewhere, whether you have your own business.
I can write a long article on this 2 words....viz: Planning and Execution....but time do not permits me......sometimes mood also plays important role in what one writes....
And own he does, 20 megahertz of it, for fourth-generation broadband rollout.
Now, if you are Mukesh Ambani, history shows you tend to think huge, years ahead, and then connect the dots.
The attempt here is not to be Mukesh’s hagiographer; there’senough empirical evidence of very large-scale execution achievement.
So what’s the broadband mega picture Mukesh has drawn?
One can only indulge in some logical guesswork. First of which is that Mukesh rolls out broadband services for folks like you, me and companies, or ‘the subscribers’.
Now what are these services? It could be as varied offering movies in hi-def, multiplayer platforms for online games on the fly, news and data services such as helping companies jigger hi-definition video-conferencing...
One thing that’s unlikely is a return to voice telephony because broadband licensing terms don’t allow it — only Universal Access Service Licence does.
And how would you avail of the services? Through mobile phones, iPad-like devices, laptops, or even the good ol’ desktops and television sets.
Chances are, more than 90% of the delivery will be on mobile phones on the consumer side. That’s the only way the lack of computer penetration in India, which is wallowing at around 5%, can be surmounted.
On the other hand, a substantial chunk of corporate use will be through computers.
Mukesh will offer much more. He will help you pay your bills, buy tickets of all kinds, order food from a restaurant, buy clothes by visually sampling them on your phone, facilitate tuitions, virtual classes ... all this using the ‘fat pipe’ — which is geek for broadband.
He will help companies manage their data by renting his infrastructure (in software, data mean many things, including financial numbers, attendance and salary slips, creating and zipping engineering designs ... all the work that companies do. Video is also data.
All this, however, is the straight part. Mukesh on Friday said he also plans to exponentially grow his retail business, which now has a turnover of $1 billion, to $10 billion in 5 years.
What he didn’t say is growth will be far more exponential after 5 years if India grows at 8%-9% over the next decade, as it is expected to. And when his broadband plugs into his retail business, he will also help you buy a lot of stuff online — practically 90% of what you will need in your daily/weekly/monthly life, using your mobile phone/iPad/PC.
In effect, he will take away business from the neighbourhood mom & pop kiranas, from the neighbourhood malls and supermarkets because, by making geography history, to borrow that all-time great copyline of the beleaguered Iridium satellite project.
By default, he will also lord over India’s largest logistics entity because large physical deliveries will have to be orchestrated using a massive supply chain.
By being with you literally 24x7, in hand, on your mobile, at home or anywhere, Mukesh will own you, the consumer.
He will own you because he will become the King of Convenience, and you, me and everyone else loves convenience.
Who doesn’t want to order groceries sitting at home and have it delivered at the doorstep? Who doesn’t want the convenience of completing non-office chores from home, after a hard day’s work and travel?
If you are Mukesh, you will also do one more thing. You will own a payment gateway embedded in the fat pipe, to collect monies flowing from all those potential billions of personal and corporate transactions. That would essentially mean plugging in a non-banking finance entity or a transaction processing system like those used for credit cards (Reliance Credit Cards!) or even a bank (Reliance Bank!).
Now imagine scale.
On Friday, Mukesh said broadband penetration in India is just 1%. What does that tell you? Only 1.2 crore people have access to it in the country. That may be an overestimate.
Anyway. That also means 99%, or 118.8 crore people, don’t have broadband access, considering India’s estimated population of 120 crore. Get the picture of a gargantuan ecosystem?
One more thing: Mukesh would have paid over Rs 12,000 crore to get the spectrum for his broadband binge. Too much upfront expenditure? In reality, that may not even be a fraction of what he would earn over the next couple of decades — if things go well.
Considering the volume dimensions of the project, Mukesh would’t have to price anything steep, no matter the spectrum fees. Bottom-of-pyramid affordability will more than suffice for telecom’s original price warrior. Remember Monsoon Hungama, circa 2003? Remember his plan then, of rolling all of the things described afore through optic fibre networks? Of Kar lo duniya mutthi mein?
This time round, he is doing the same wirelessly, using airwaves.
All this fantasising, of course, is predicated on the ability of technology to facilitate such an online empire.
On the bandwidth side, at 20 MHz of contiguous spectrum across the country, Mukesh’s got more than twice the 10 MHz that data rivals, the 3G telecom auction winners, have. To boot, they have the spectrum only in some circles, not nationally.
As of now, the technologies Mukesh is riding on — Wimax and Long Term Evolution — are not mass-tested on a scale they need to work in India. That’s the only mountain to climb.
Execution is a non-issue. It’s Mukesh’s middle name.
My Comments:
Execution.......that is the bottomline....
I have written here , planning and execution is the most important factor for completing any project.Remember this always, whether you are working as an employee somewhere, whether you have your own business.
I can write a long article on this 2 words....viz: Planning and Execution....but time do not permits me......sometimes mood also plays important role in what one writes....
Friday, June 18, 2010
Jim Rogers buys euros, says bailouts will destroy currency............
Hey,
Jim Rogers says now it will take 15 yrs for Euro to disappear and he is now buying EUROS................LOL...............what a U trun.....
Hats Off to you....Mr.Jim Rogers...carryon doing what u are doing....Scaring people and then doing the opposite....I like that way........
Rajeev
Jim Rogers buys euros, says bailouts will destroy currency
17 Jun 2010, 1422 hrs IST,BloombergMADRID:
Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he is buying euros even as he predicts that bailouts for European nations will eventually
Thats not the way its supposed to work, Rogers said in an interview at the Rafael Del Pino Foundation in Madrid on Wednesday. I dont think its good for Europe, and I dont think its good for the world to bail out people who have failed.
The euro lost 14% against the dollar this year as European Union nations struggled to contain budget deficits more than triple the blocs 3% limit. Last month, the EU announced a 750 billion euro ($923 billion) rescue mechanism to stem contagion from Greece as the risk premium on Spanish and Portuguese bonds surged.
Debasing what has been a strong currency and making it weaker and weaker is in the end going to destroy the euro, Rogers said. In the interim, Im long the euro.
Still, Rogers said he bought euros this week and may buy more because investor sentiment has turned too negative in the short term. It will take 10 to 15 years for the currency to disappear, he said.
The extra yield investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year government bonds rather than the benchmark bunds touched a euro-era record today of 2.19 percentage points after El Economista newspaper reported the International Monetary Fund is coordinating a 250 billion-euro credit line for the country. The EU and IMF denied the report. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.2305. Its time to go in and take the other side, Rogers said. It got beaten down so much.
Jim Rogers says now it will take 15 yrs for Euro to disappear and he is now buying EUROS................LOL...............what a U trun.....
Hats Off to you....Mr.Jim Rogers...carryon doing what u are doing....Scaring people and then doing the opposite....I like that way........
Rajeev
Jim Rogers buys euros, says bailouts will destroy currency
17 Jun 2010, 1422 hrs IST,BloombergMADRID:
Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he is buying euros even as he predicts that bailouts for European nations will eventually
Thats not the way its supposed to work, Rogers said in an interview at the Rafael Del Pino Foundation in Madrid on Wednesday. I dont think its good for Europe, and I dont think its good for the world to bail out people who have failed.
The euro lost 14% against the dollar this year as European Union nations struggled to contain budget deficits more than triple the blocs 3% limit. Last month, the EU announced a 750 billion euro ($923 billion) rescue mechanism to stem contagion from Greece as the risk premium on Spanish and Portuguese bonds surged.
Debasing what has been a strong currency and making it weaker and weaker is in the end going to destroy the euro, Rogers said. In the interim, Im long the euro.
Still, Rogers said he bought euros this week and may buy more because investor sentiment has turned too negative in the short term. It will take 10 to 15 years for the currency to disappear, he said.
The extra yield investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year government bonds rather than the benchmark bunds touched a euro-era record today of 2.19 percentage points after El Economista newspaper reported the International Monetary Fund is coordinating a 250 billion-euro credit line for the country. The EU and IMF denied the report. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.2305. Its time to go in and take the other side, Rogers said. It got beaten down so much.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Aegis Logistic....making new highs ...my old call.....now 360...
Friends,
I recomended Aegis Logistic on Mar 20th '10 at 195.Within 3 months it is up by 170....
See , I have done nothing.I read the news in Live Mint and analysed it and found a value and wrote it here.I didn't have any inside info nor any contact that Aegis was going to move.But it moved because there was value in it at that time.It still is a hold for LT .
I suggest my readers to read more and more.In this age of Internet , you don't even have to buy business papers.You can read it on internet FREE.
I am seeing that ET e-paper has become a paid site.It will be difficult for me to read it now.I like to read the paper edition, turning each page one by one but now it will be difficult to read it...for me....
Some stock I am tracking and feeling are good buys at this rate are as follow.
1)Jaipan Ind..cmp..Rs 22.20
This is again a stock with white goods sector.Jaipan is a good brand name and what I liked about it is they are also in Tele Marketing and that gives edge to their sales as I talked earlier , the time has come for E -Commerze.Buying things through internet.
They have got some 100 products on Teleshopping list and have total 140 products to sell with 125 distributers and 6000 dealers.
I think Jaipan is a very wellknown brand and so at Rs 22 , looks to me an excellent Value Buy.
Again , I write, I have no inside info.I read it and write it.
My simple logic here is if TTK Prestige and Gandhimati Appliances can give tremendous return then I see no problem why Jaipan Ind should not perform.
2) Polar Ind...cmp 7
This is another brand play and a dark horse.We all know about the Polar Fans.It is a loss making Co and hence available below 10.....DD is must before buying anything I recomend.
My old call, IFB Ind in same White Goods sector is flying .......
I would like to mention that Ennore Coke still looks good and one can still buy it for excellent returns in times to come.
My old call, Surana Corp has come out with excellent results with 40cr as NP which is up by over 100% from last year.
DHP India which I recomended in early 20's has doubled and looks good even now.
SNL Bearing touched 60 and is already a six bagger from my call at rs 11.
I recomended Aegis Logistic on Mar 20th '10 at 195.Within 3 months it is up by 170....
See , I have done nothing.I read the news in Live Mint and analysed it and found a value and wrote it here.I didn't have any inside info nor any contact that Aegis was going to move.But it moved because there was value in it at that time.It still is a hold for LT .
I suggest my readers to read more and more.In this age of Internet , you don't even have to buy business papers.You can read it on internet FREE.
I am seeing that ET e-paper has become a paid site.It will be difficult for me to read it now.I like to read the paper edition, turning each page one by one but now it will be difficult to read it...for me....
Some stock I am tracking and feeling are good buys at this rate are as follow.
1)Jaipan Ind..cmp..Rs 22.20
This is again a stock with white goods sector.Jaipan is a good brand name and what I liked about it is they are also in Tele Marketing and that gives edge to their sales as I talked earlier , the time has come for E -Commerze.Buying things through internet.
They have got some 100 products on Teleshopping list and have total 140 products to sell with 125 distributers and 6000 dealers.
I think Jaipan is a very wellknown brand and so at Rs 22 , looks to me an excellent Value Buy.
Again , I write, I have no inside info.I read it and write it.
My simple logic here is if TTK Prestige and Gandhimati Appliances can give tremendous return then I see no problem why Jaipan Ind should not perform.
2) Polar Ind...cmp 7
This is another brand play and a dark horse.We all know about the Polar Fans.It is a loss making Co and hence available below 10.....DD is must before buying anything I recomend.
My old call, IFB Ind in same White Goods sector is flying .......
I would like to mention that Ennore Coke still looks good and one can still buy it for excellent returns in times to come.
My old call, Surana Corp has come out with excellent results with 40cr as NP which is up by over 100% from last year.
DHP India which I recomended in early 20's has doubled and looks good even now.
SNL Bearing touched 60 and is already a six bagger from my call at rs 11.
India eyes $1-trillion fortune in Afghan mining hotbed.........
Arijit Barman / Mumbai June 17, 2010, 0:49 IST
Nature’s gift to Kabul — the mining hotbed — could further strengthen the relation with its natural ally, New Delhi.
An “unscheduled” meeting between Afghanistan Mining Minister Wahidullah Shahrani and his Indian counterpart B K Handique in the capital yesterday gathers significance as it came just a day after the Pentagon —the headquarters of the US defense department — made a sensational disclosure that Afghanistan has nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits.
The revelation is enough to turn the country into the hottest mining destination in the world and India is not far behind.
“Yes, we had a meeting for the first time,” Handique told Business Standard. “The mining industry is in a nascent stage in Afghanistan and they want to grow it. Everybody is now talking of the potential in Afghanistan. We are also equally keen to tap that opportunity. And India is a natural partner for them.”
Indian companies are helping to rebuild critical infrastructure in Afghanistan. From a 200-km highway to power transmission lines, telecom infrastructure and even dams for hydel power.
But Handique said while there is genuine potential, the issue of security of Indian workers is a concern in the war-ravaged nation. Post Tuesday's meeting, he has already spoken to the top Geological Survey of India (GSI) officials who he says were willing to venture out but had asked for security cover.
Most of these veins of mineral deposits are close to the Pakistan border, an area controlled by the Taliban.
But the ball has been set in motion. In July, officials and geologists from Kabul will be visiting Jaipur for a joint workshop with the GSI officials. For GSI, the bond with Afghanistan is over 100 years old, when they came up with the first detailed geological mapping of the country in the late 19th century. The map is still used as the basis for any cartographic exercise.
Afghanistan, say mining ministry officials, want Indian companies to tap five key minerals: coal, iron ore, copper, cobalt and gold. “The minister told us that India is a major importer of copper ore and concentrate. And Afghanistan has major reserves which we should tap,” said the official.
Hindalco, for example has a 15 per cent shortfall in copper ore and is exploring options of either buying a mining asset to bridge the gap or reopen a mine in Australia, where it had shut shop due to high operating costs.
Kabul is very keen to have Indian private sector steel makers extract iron ore and set up steel units in Afghanistan. Such value additions can also help in employment opportunities for the local population and with such massive rebuilding going on, a ready market already exists right next to the Indian border.
Indian steel makers, however, are cautiously optimistic. In 2008, three Indian steel companies alongwith two from China had bid for iron ore mines in Afghanistan, but Kabul cancelled them at the last minute. “The problem with Afghanistan is that it is land-locked. The prospects of consumption within the country is quite limited, so for any initiative to really take off, we need access to Pakistan’s ports and that remains a big question mark,” said the managing director of a steel company.
A roadshow on investment opportunity in the Afghan steel and iron ore sector has been planned in London on June 25 where 200 global companies have been invited. India too is planning to have a steel delegation with representatives from the private sector, PSUs and the mines ministry.
Cooperation on coal is the other big frontier. Afghanistan is willing to allow coal imports for India’s growing power needs. Of course it would also like power plants to be set up locally with Indian help, a move that has started.
Interestingly enough, the talks between the two ministers did not harp too much about lithium, an essential raw material for batteries for laptops and Blackberrys. Pentagon officials are already calling Afghanistan “the Saudi Arabia of lithium.”
But will it again end up as just a dialogue and an intention that will get lost in bureaucracy? “We have a protocol when it comes to international engagement. I told the minister that we would like to take this forward with a memorandum of understanding (MoU). I have told him that we have recently signed one with Namibia, Columbia. Similar MoUs are being planned for Chile, Peru. In our meeting, they did not make any commitments, but heard us out,” said Handique.
Nature’s gift to Kabul — the mining hotbed — could further strengthen the relation with its natural ally, New Delhi.
An “unscheduled” meeting between Afghanistan Mining Minister Wahidullah Shahrani and his Indian counterpart B K Handique in the capital yesterday gathers significance as it came just a day after the Pentagon —the headquarters of the US defense department — made a sensational disclosure that Afghanistan has nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits.
The revelation is enough to turn the country into the hottest mining destination in the world and India is not far behind.
“Yes, we had a meeting for the first time,” Handique told Business Standard. “The mining industry is in a nascent stage in Afghanistan and they want to grow it. Everybody is now talking of the potential in Afghanistan. We are also equally keen to tap that opportunity. And India is a natural partner for them.”
Indian companies are helping to rebuild critical infrastructure in Afghanistan. From a 200-km highway to power transmission lines, telecom infrastructure and even dams for hydel power.
But Handique said while there is genuine potential, the issue of security of Indian workers is a concern in the war-ravaged nation. Post Tuesday's meeting, he has already spoken to the top Geological Survey of India (GSI) officials who he says were willing to venture out but had asked for security cover.
Most of these veins of mineral deposits are close to the Pakistan border, an area controlled by the Taliban.
But the ball has been set in motion. In July, officials and geologists from Kabul will be visiting Jaipur for a joint workshop with the GSI officials. For GSI, the bond with Afghanistan is over 100 years old, when they came up with the first detailed geological mapping of the country in the late 19th century. The map is still used as the basis for any cartographic exercise.
Afghanistan, say mining ministry officials, want Indian companies to tap five key minerals: coal, iron ore, copper, cobalt and gold. “The minister told us that India is a major importer of copper ore and concentrate. And Afghanistan has major reserves which we should tap,” said the official.
Hindalco, for example has a 15 per cent shortfall in copper ore and is exploring options of either buying a mining asset to bridge the gap or reopen a mine in Australia, where it had shut shop due to high operating costs.
Kabul is very keen to have Indian private sector steel makers extract iron ore and set up steel units in Afghanistan. Such value additions can also help in employment opportunities for the local population and with such massive rebuilding going on, a ready market already exists right next to the Indian border.
Indian steel makers, however, are cautiously optimistic. In 2008, three Indian steel companies alongwith two from China had bid for iron ore mines in Afghanistan, but Kabul cancelled them at the last minute. “The problem with Afghanistan is that it is land-locked. The prospects of consumption within the country is quite limited, so for any initiative to really take off, we need access to Pakistan’s ports and that remains a big question mark,” said the managing director of a steel company.
A roadshow on investment opportunity in the Afghan steel and iron ore sector has been planned in London on June 25 where 200 global companies have been invited. India too is planning to have a steel delegation with representatives from the private sector, PSUs and the mines ministry.
Cooperation on coal is the other big frontier. Afghanistan is willing to allow coal imports for India’s growing power needs. Of course it would also like power plants to be set up locally with Indian help, a move that has started.
Interestingly enough, the talks between the two ministers did not harp too much about lithium, an essential raw material for batteries for laptops and Blackberrys. Pentagon officials are already calling Afghanistan “the Saudi Arabia of lithium.”
But will it again end up as just a dialogue and an intention that will get lost in bureaucracy? “We have a protocol when it comes to international engagement. I told the minister that we would like to take this forward with a memorandum of understanding (MoU). I have told him that we have recently signed one with Namibia, Columbia. Similar MoUs are being planned for Chile, Peru. In our meeting, they did not make any commitments, but heard us out,” said Handique.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Loyal Textile Mills Ltd......cmp....Rs 173.20.....geared to give excellent growth....
Friends,
I have been recomending Textile stocks since long.Some of them were:
1)Super Sales, which has already given over 50% return from my call.
2)Super Spinning
3)Suryalata Spinning
4)Suryavanshi Spinning
5)SuryaJyoti Spinning etc
last end Dec 2009.What were the prices then and what is now I haven't tracked that....but anyone can have a look at it....
But today I will be talking on another yesteryear Bluechip.......
Loyal Textile Ltd......
This one was a darling of investors and punters and operators in 90's.
I have seen this stock quoting at 700 and over.Then Bonus at 1:1 and again XB 700.....it was a darling for everyone.
Well, due to bad time for Textile sector Loyal Tex also took a beating .In Mar 2009, it made a LOW of Rs 44.00 and from there it has come to this level.
The reason I am recomending it here is Loyal Tex has come out with excellent results for Mar 2010 ending.The sales has gone up from 88 cr to 140 cr .NP has made a big turnaround.From a loss of 5.84 cr to 9.73 cr profit and hence the Mar qr EPS ends at 20.68.
The eq is still very low at 4.70 cr and if the trend continues like this in this June ending qr, there will be no looking back for this yesteryear bulechip.
The confidence of management declaring 30% Div says that June qr will also be excellent.From a loss making to profit making and that too from a LOSS of 6 cr to profit of 10 cr is huge huge turnaround.
Well, this is what I wants to show to you all.See what happens when a Co is having a LOW eq......if someone can recall , my first criteria for picking a multibagger is "low eq."See the magic of low eq.....Loyal Tex was making losses and with just one turnaround, it ends up with an eps of 20 for just 1 quarter.
And the most important part here is promoters hold 72% stake and they held it even in bad times.Because they were confident that they will make a turnaround otherwise they would have sold their shares when chips were down for textile sector.But they never did that.That is a sign of Top Class Management.
What I have written may happen and may not happen.The June qr may not be good and can be excellent as well.....Take your own call .....
Readers and followers keeps on asking me to show them some textile stocks......so here it is.....
I have been recomending Textile stocks since long.Some of them were:
1)Super Sales, which has already given over 50% return from my call.
2)Super Spinning
3)Suryalata Spinning
4)Suryavanshi Spinning
5)SuryaJyoti Spinning etc
last end Dec 2009.What were the prices then and what is now I haven't tracked that....but anyone can have a look at it....
But today I will be talking on another yesteryear Bluechip.......
Loyal Textile Ltd......
This one was a darling of investors and punters and operators in 90's.
I have seen this stock quoting at 700 and over.Then Bonus at 1:1 and again XB 700.....it was a darling for everyone.
Well, due to bad time for Textile sector Loyal Tex also took a beating .In Mar 2009, it made a LOW of Rs 44.00 and from there it has come to this level.
The reason I am recomending it here is Loyal Tex has come out with excellent results for Mar 2010 ending.The sales has gone up from 88 cr to 140 cr .NP has made a big turnaround.From a loss of 5.84 cr to 9.73 cr profit and hence the Mar qr EPS ends at 20.68.
The eq is still very low at 4.70 cr and if the trend continues like this in this June ending qr, there will be no looking back for this yesteryear bulechip.
The confidence of management declaring 30% Div says that June qr will also be excellent.From a loss making to profit making and that too from a LOSS of 6 cr to profit of 10 cr is huge huge turnaround.
Well, this is what I wants to show to you all.See what happens when a Co is having a LOW eq......if someone can recall , my first criteria for picking a multibagger is "low eq."See the magic of low eq.....Loyal Tex was making losses and with just one turnaround, it ends up with an eps of 20 for just 1 quarter.
And the most important part here is promoters hold 72% stake and they held it even in bad times.Because they were confident that they will make a turnaround otherwise they would have sold their shares when chips were down for textile sector.But they never did that.That is a sign of Top Class Management.
What I have written may happen and may not happen.The June qr may not be good and can be excellent as well.....Take your own call .....
Readers and followers keeps on asking me to show them some textile stocks......so here it is.....
Monday, June 14, 2010
Nilesh Shah and Sukumar Rajah.....
"MOST investors will sell emerging market assets in favour of developed markets. This is like jumping out of the frying pan into the fire" The stock market has turned highly volatile as global worries far outweigh the strong fundamentals of the domestic economy. Is it a good time to buy or just lie low? Bijoy Sankar Saikia posed the questions to Nilesh Shah, the man reputed for his razor-sharp analysis of the domestic market( He was a Topper and a Gold Medalist in CA), and Sukumar Rajah, the investment manager who knows global markets like the back of his hand. Both converged on one conclusion: There is a huge opportunity for smart investors in this crisis
The March quarter numbers, the GDP figures and the recent auto sales numbers all point to a strong undercurrent of consumption-driven growth in the domestic economy. But the stock market continues to remain jittery. Where do the downside risks lie? Do global prob lems such as the worries from the euro zone or China have the potential to derail our recovery?
While Indian stock market is linked to global flows, our econo linked to global flows, our econo my has less linkage with the global economy and continues to thrive on domestic consumption, demographic advantages and domestic growth opportunities. Notwithstan-ding the marginal adverse impact of global slowdown, Indian equity markets will get impacted adversely whenever FIIs sell to reduce the risk on account of global developments. However, it will be a short-term phenomena. On the contrary, these corrections will be beneficial for investors. Investors need to look at these corrections as opportunities to participate in the Indian equity market.
If one can take the short-term pain of volatility, every correction driven by global events will be a great entry point for investors. One needs to be patient and wait to tide over the volatility to gain in the long term.
One big worry is on the liquidity front. As overseas debt gets costlier and domestic liquidity gets tighter, will it delay the much-awaited domestic capex cycle?
The developed world has many issues to handle on growth and debt. They are likely to keep loose monetary policy for a long period. Overseas debt has become costlier for companies and countries that are likely to default. India has not defaulted to anyone since the Harrapa Mohejondaro days. Unfortunately, rating agencies did not read history and rated Greece, which did not have a strong credit history like us, at much higher level. Now their myth is out in open.
Hopefully, investors will realise that their perception of the developed world being safe and risk-free is no longer valid. Emerging markets being risky is also not true. The US has become the largest debtor to the world. By definition, it cannot be considered a safe haven any more.
The definition of risk is changing for global markets and this gives us the comfort that India will be able to raise the resources it needs to fund growth.
More importantly, we can pursue our growth targets with our own savings.
Our capex cycle is restricted by our inability to execute.
Do Europe and China top your list of worries or are there other factors that you feel could present challenges for the domestic economy and equities market?
Notwithstanding the fact that EU is India's largest trading partner, their crisis will have limited impact from an economy point of view. We expect China to soft-land its economy in FY11.
It should have a marginal impact on us.
For the Indian economy, the worry continues to be inflation, governance, reforms and speed of execution. Our economy is more likely to get impacted by what happens in India rather than outside. In the short term, equity markets and economies can be delinked. It is possible that Indian equity market moves in line with global mar kets, espe cially due to the fundflow linkage.
Other than that, our market will be impacted more by how the economy responds to factors like monsoon, inflation, soon, inflation, fiscal deficit, interest rates, etc.
Risk aversion seems to be the buzzword in equity markets worldwide. The volatility in equities and the sudden surge in gold prices point to a flight of investors to safe havens. The fear is strong across markets. Your comments?
Surely. When longstanding myths are shattered by harsh reality, it causes risk-aversion. A generation was told a myth that developed economies were safe havens. In global markets, investors are witnessing a six-sigma scenario. They did not build a model for such an event. Survival instincts are pushing them to be risk-averse. But many a time people jump out of frying pan into the fire. Maybe, most people will end up doing that as they sell emerging market assets in favour of developed market assets. Only a small minority of smart and intelligent investors will recognise the power shift from West to East.
The rupee has gone into a tailspin of late. Is there a risk of strong currency fluctuations hurting some key sectors?
The rupee is reflecting the movement of fund flows. It is not reflecting fundamentals. Our economy can easily withstand such short-term aberrations.
The RBI has enough reserves to manage any unwarranted move.
FIIs have been net sellers in May. The sentiments of foreign investors appear to be turning weak. What could be the trigger for this outflow? Is it their risk perception for the Indian market or their own domestic concerns?
FII outflows have been the result of the global financial turmoil rather than any concerns on India. On the contrary, the global crisis will put India in the spotlight again. For Asia and, specifically India, the global pain represents an opportunity to out shine the global economies.
India today is well poised with all the right constituents for success. The fundamentals of India are sound and opportunity is plentiful. Therefore, the crisis presents India with the opportunity to capture the attention of the global capital seeking better returns on investments. It will not be prudent to paint all FIIs in one colour. There will be many FIIs who will behave like a herd to get in and out of India. There are FIIs who are smart and will use the correction to enter India.
One view is that emerging markets are already past their worst and the move ahead from here is upwards? Another view is that emerging markets were actually the biggest beneficiaries of the easy liquidity and as purse strings get tightened, these markets are going to take a bit.
The Indian growth rate continues to be among the highest in the world, second only to China. The Indian growth rate even in a year like 2008 was higher than developed economies. The positives of the economy and its structural growth continue to make India an attractive investment destination. We will continue to draw inflows from overseas in search of high-yielding assets.
Also while the 2009 rally was liquidity-driven, the consumption story of the economy also supported the market well. First, while FII inflows have been key to the rally, the domestic consumption story has also been a significant contributing factor.
Given that our saving rate is around 35% of the GDP , we believe this consumption story will continue going forward. The test from here on will be on our ability to remove the bottlenecks in the growth path and demonstrate operational efficiency and real sector growth.
What are the five domestic factors you will be watching to remain confident on the economy and the stock market over the next two quarters?
Monsoons, oil prices, inflation and interest rates will provide guidance for the next two quarters. India needs to have a good monsoon to keep commodity prices low and moderate inflation. Oil price movement will be tracked closely as any significant upward price pressures on oil can increase inflation. Interest rate movements will be crucial to determine the direction of the market and the economy. The government has two options before it, one to raise interest rates and curb inflation and the other is to address supply side constraints of inflation by improving capacity and developing infrastructure. From a long-term stock market view point, there is only one factor to watch out for: India should not become complacent and take growth for granted.
How do you look at market valuations? What's your outlook on earnings upgrade for Indian companies over the next two quarters?
It is difficult to predict short-term market direction. At present level, the market is certainly not cheap like it was in March 2009. It is at the higher end of fair value. We do not expect the Indian market to get re-rated from present levels, which are in line with historical averages. From here on, the market growth will track earnings growth. What looks fairly priced at this point may look reasonable over the next six months and may look cheap on one-year basis
This is Sukumar's View
"FUNDAMENTALS prevail over the long term and India certainly has stronger fundamentals compared with most economies"
The March quarter numbers, the GDP figures and the recent auto sales numbers all point to a strong undercurrent of consumption-driven growth.
But the stock market continues to remain jittery. Where do the downside risks lie? Do global problems such as the worries from the euro zone or China have the potential to derail our recovery? Are there other factors, which you feel could present significant challenges for the domestic economy and equities market?
While India's growth prospects remain strong from a mediumto long-term perspective, stock markets have weakened largely due to weak global sentiment and FII outflows. The recent volatility in the global financial markets is an indication that the global economy has not fully healed from the crisis of 2008 and investors are wary of systemic risks.
We continue to believe that fundamentally sound economies like India (especially those dependent on domestic drivers) are unlikely to be impacted by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. The impact is felt more so in the financial markets due to FII flows. In the case of China, we feel the recent tightening measures by the authorities should help address the concerns around the property market and overheating (of the economy).
The government has exhibited its ability to steer the economy well in the past and is likely to continue to do so in the future. There are some shortterm concerns, but domestic consumption has been increasing strongly helped by the rise in disposable incomes -as reflected in the fact that it has become the largest automotive market in the world. From a mediumto long-term perspective, we are positive on the China's growth prospects.
One key concern is on liquidity front. As overseas debt gets costlier and domestic liquidity comes under stress, will it delay the much-awaited domestic capex cycle?
From the international market's perspective, reduced global liquidity and risk appetite can have implications for corporate India's overseas borrowings plans. However, given that domestic credit has remained relatively muted in the ongoing recovery cycle, we don't expect any major systemic issues. Several large companies have managed to raise capital in the market over the past few quarters and credit offtake has begun to come off lows. While increased global uncertainty could have an impact on corporate India's plans, until and unless the global growth situation worsens dramatically, we don't see any major change of plans.
Risk aversion seems to be the new buzzword in equity markets worldwide. The volatility in equities and the surge in gold prices point to a flight of investors to safe havens. The fear factor is strong across markets. Your comments?
Market sentiment tends to move in extremes due to various factors, but over the medium to long term, equity markets reflect underlying fundamentals. Until a month back, global equity markets were ignoring rising fiscal deficits across the globe and the lacklustre uptick in employment growth.
Some of the markets even appeared to be in an overbought situation.
A series of headline news focusing on fiscal problems faced by few countries in Europe and the regulatory oversight of the financial sector has now brought the focus on the magnitude of the issues and hence, broad markets are now factoring in these issues.
As mentioned above, fundamentals prevail over the medium to long term and India certainly has relatively stronger fundamentals compared with most economies. In that sense, any sharp decline should be viewed as buying opportunities.
In spite of the strong volatility in markets, India has managed to put up a brave front in the face of the European crisis. Can India hold its fort if the crisis deepens and global economies go into another slowdown?
How real is the fear of a double-dip recession in the West?
The Indian economy is largely domestic driven and relatively lower credit growth and the large forex reserve should help India manage this phase comfortably and the drop in global commodity prices should provide some respite. However, export growth has been lagging behind import growth in recent times and could be impacted by a slowdown in Europe, resulting in a wider trade deficit.
Nonetheless, India's resilience through the global slowdown over the past two years clearly underlines the fact that the economy is one of best structural stories across the globe.
The rupee has gone into a tailspin. Is there a risk of strong currency fluctuations hurting some key sectors of the economy?
Currency fluctuations are largely dependent on global sentiments and foreign inflows a strengthening rupee tends to impact export-oriented sectors while benefiting importers as well as reducing the impact of energy imports. However, most companies typically use various instru ments and contract negotiations to mitigate the impact of sharp fluctuations.
FIIs have been net sellers in May. The sentiment of foreign investors appears to be turning weak. What could be the trigger for this outflow? Is it their risk perception for the Indian market or their own domestic concerns?
The selling has been largely due to the change in risk appetite of global investors rather than any macro concerns about India.
Global investors with a longterm view are likely to view any sharp correction (in India) as a buying opportunity. Despite the outflows in May ($2 billion), year-to-date FII flows stand at a healthy $4.6 billion.
One view is that emerging markets are already past their worst and the move ahead from here is upwards? Another view is that emerging markets were actually the biggest beneficiaries of the easy liquidity and as purse strings get tightened, these markets are going to take a bit of a hit. Your views?
The rally seen in 2009 and the early part of this year has been driven by high global liquidity levels and investors being in search of higher yields given the sharp drop in global interest rates. As central banks normalise monetary policies, some of this liquidity will be drained out and it will impact markets. However, instead of lumping all emerging market economies together, one needs to focus on those countries with large populations and strong domestic consumption stories.
Such economies will be able to withstand any slowdown in the global recovery or liquidity. As per Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimates, emerging economies will receive inflows of over $700 billion in 2010, 33.5 per cent more than 2009 level.
What are the five domestic factors you will be watching to remain confident on the economy and the stock market over the next two quarters?
Among an array of domestic economic and corporate indicators, IIP, inflation, earnings, capex and consumption trends will be some of the factors to watch out for over the next two quarters.
For India, we believe at this point in time, key macro challenges are inflation and fiscal deficit. On the latter, the government has outlined a roadmap to consolidate imbalances and reduce government borrowing, which is a positive. However, the progress will need to be monitored, especially on marketdependent items such as disinvestment and subsidy outgo in FY11. Any substantial increase in international crude oil/commodity prices will be key to the inflation outlook for India as well as the monsoon season. The progress on some of the infrastructure programmes and tax reforms is critical for long-term growth.
What's your outlook on earnings upgrade for Indian companies over the next two quarters?
The recent earnings season has been a positive and earnings visibility for the coming quarters is on the brighter side, even as overall trends were divergent across sectors.
However, earnings revisions have slowed in the recent past, with changes being announced for select companies based on business developments. Most of the positive factors seem to be priced in and we will need to see progress in the first half of FY11.
The composition of the Sensex is commodity-heavy and, hence, sustained decline/low commodity prices can impact earnings growth
The March quarter numbers, the GDP figures and the recent auto sales numbers all point to a strong undercurrent of consumption-driven growth in the domestic economy. But the stock market continues to remain jittery. Where do the downside risks lie? Do global prob lems such as the worries from the euro zone or China have the potential to derail our recovery?
While Indian stock market is linked to global flows, our econo linked to global flows, our econo my has less linkage with the global economy and continues to thrive on domestic consumption, demographic advantages and domestic growth opportunities. Notwithstan-ding the marginal adverse impact of global slowdown, Indian equity markets will get impacted adversely whenever FIIs sell to reduce the risk on account of global developments. However, it will be a short-term phenomena. On the contrary, these corrections will be beneficial for investors. Investors need to look at these corrections as opportunities to participate in the Indian equity market.
If one can take the short-term pain of volatility, every correction driven by global events will be a great entry point for investors. One needs to be patient and wait to tide over the volatility to gain in the long term.
One big worry is on the liquidity front. As overseas debt gets costlier and domestic liquidity gets tighter, will it delay the much-awaited domestic capex cycle?
The developed world has many issues to handle on growth and debt. They are likely to keep loose monetary policy for a long period. Overseas debt has become costlier for companies and countries that are likely to default. India has not defaulted to anyone since the Harrapa Mohejondaro days. Unfortunately, rating agencies did not read history and rated Greece, which did not have a strong credit history like us, at much higher level. Now their myth is out in open.
Hopefully, investors will realise that their perception of the developed world being safe and risk-free is no longer valid. Emerging markets being risky is also not true. The US has become the largest debtor to the world. By definition, it cannot be considered a safe haven any more.
The definition of risk is changing for global markets and this gives us the comfort that India will be able to raise the resources it needs to fund growth.
More importantly, we can pursue our growth targets with our own savings.
Our capex cycle is restricted by our inability to execute.
Do Europe and China top your list of worries or are there other factors that you feel could present challenges for the domestic economy and equities market?
Notwithstanding the fact that EU is India's largest trading partner, their crisis will have limited impact from an economy point of view. We expect China to soft-land its economy in FY11.
It should have a marginal impact on us.
For the Indian economy, the worry continues to be inflation, governance, reforms and speed of execution. Our economy is more likely to get impacted by what happens in India rather than outside. In the short term, equity markets and economies can be delinked. It is possible that Indian equity market moves in line with global mar kets, espe cially due to the fundflow linkage.
Other than that, our market will be impacted more by how the economy responds to factors like monsoon, inflation, soon, inflation, fiscal deficit, interest rates, etc.
Risk aversion seems to be the buzzword in equity markets worldwide. The volatility in equities and the sudden surge in gold prices point to a flight of investors to safe havens. The fear is strong across markets. Your comments?
Surely. When longstanding myths are shattered by harsh reality, it causes risk-aversion. A generation was told a myth that developed economies were safe havens. In global markets, investors are witnessing a six-sigma scenario. They did not build a model for such an event. Survival instincts are pushing them to be risk-averse. But many a time people jump out of frying pan into the fire. Maybe, most people will end up doing that as they sell emerging market assets in favour of developed market assets. Only a small minority of smart and intelligent investors will recognise the power shift from West to East.
The rupee has gone into a tailspin of late. Is there a risk of strong currency fluctuations hurting some key sectors?
The rupee is reflecting the movement of fund flows. It is not reflecting fundamentals. Our economy can easily withstand such short-term aberrations.
The RBI has enough reserves to manage any unwarranted move.
FIIs have been net sellers in May. The sentiments of foreign investors appear to be turning weak. What could be the trigger for this outflow? Is it their risk perception for the Indian market or their own domestic concerns?
FII outflows have been the result of the global financial turmoil rather than any concerns on India. On the contrary, the global crisis will put India in the spotlight again. For Asia and, specifically India, the global pain represents an opportunity to out shine the global economies.
India today is well poised with all the right constituents for success. The fundamentals of India are sound and opportunity is plentiful. Therefore, the crisis presents India with the opportunity to capture the attention of the global capital seeking better returns on investments. It will not be prudent to paint all FIIs in one colour. There will be many FIIs who will behave like a herd to get in and out of India. There are FIIs who are smart and will use the correction to enter India.
One view is that emerging markets are already past their worst and the move ahead from here is upwards? Another view is that emerging markets were actually the biggest beneficiaries of the easy liquidity and as purse strings get tightened, these markets are going to take a bit.
The Indian growth rate continues to be among the highest in the world, second only to China. The Indian growth rate even in a year like 2008 was higher than developed economies. The positives of the economy and its structural growth continue to make India an attractive investment destination. We will continue to draw inflows from overseas in search of high-yielding assets.
Also while the 2009 rally was liquidity-driven, the consumption story of the economy also supported the market well. First, while FII inflows have been key to the rally, the domestic consumption story has also been a significant contributing factor.
Given that our saving rate is around 35% of the GDP , we believe this consumption story will continue going forward. The test from here on will be on our ability to remove the bottlenecks in the growth path and demonstrate operational efficiency and real sector growth.
What are the five domestic factors you will be watching to remain confident on the economy and the stock market over the next two quarters?
Monsoons, oil prices, inflation and interest rates will provide guidance for the next two quarters. India needs to have a good monsoon to keep commodity prices low and moderate inflation. Oil price movement will be tracked closely as any significant upward price pressures on oil can increase inflation. Interest rate movements will be crucial to determine the direction of the market and the economy. The government has two options before it, one to raise interest rates and curb inflation and the other is to address supply side constraints of inflation by improving capacity and developing infrastructure. From a long-term stock market view point, there is only one factor to watch out for: India should not become complacent and take growth for granted.
How do you look at market valuations? What's your outlook on earnings upgrade for Indian companies over the next two quarters?
It is difficult to predict short-term market direction. At present level, the market is certainly not cheap like it was in March 2009. It is at the higher end of fair value. We do not expect the Indian market to get re-rated from present levels, which are in line with historical averages. From here on, the market growth will track earnings growth. What looks fairly priced at this point may look reasonable over the next six months and may look cheap on one-year basis
This is Sukumar's View
"FUNDAMENTALS prevail over the long term and India certainly has stronger fundamentals compared with most economies"
The March quarter numbers, the GDP figures and the recent auto sales numbers all point to a strong undercurrent of consumption-driven growth.
But the stock market continues to remain jittery. Where do the downside risks lie? Do global problems such as the worries from the euro zone or China have the potential to derail our recovery? Are there other factors, which you feel could present significant challenges for the domestic economy and equities market?
While India's growth prospects remain strong from a mediumto long-term perspective, stock markets have weakened largely due to weak global sentiment and FII outflows. The recent volatility in the global financial markets is an indication that the global economy has not fully healed from the crisis of 2008 and investors are wary of systemic risks.
We continue to believe that fundamentally sound economies like India (especially those dependent on domestic drivers) are unlikely to be impacted by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. The impact is felt more so in the financial markets due to FII flows. In the case of China, we feel the recent tightening measures by the authorities should help address the concerns around the property market and overheating (of the economy).
The government has exhibited its ability to steer the economy well in the past and is likely to continue to do so in the future. There are some shortterm concerns, but domestic consumption has been increasing strongly helped by the rise in disposable incomes -as reflected in the fact that it has become the largest automotive market in the world. From a mediumto long-term perspective, we are positive on the China's growth prospects.
One key concern is on liquidity front. As overseas debt gets costlier and domestic liquidity comes under stress, will it delay the much-awaited domestic capex cycle?
From the international market's perspective, reduced global liquidity and risk appetite can have implications for corporate India's overseas borrowings plans. However, given that domestic credit has remained relatively muted in the ongoing recovery cycle, we don't expect any major systemic issues. Several large companies have managed to raise capital in the market over the past few quarters and credit offtake has begun to come off lows. While increased global uncertainty could have an impact on corporate India's plans, until and unless the global growth situation worsens dramatically, we don't see any major change of plans.
Risk aversion seems to be the new buzzword in equity markets worldwide. The volatility in equities and the surge in gold prices point to a flight of investors to safe havens. The fear factor is strong across markets. Your comments?
Market sentiment tends to move in extremes due to various factors, but over the medium to long term, equity markets reflect underlying fundamentals. Until a month back, global equity markets were ignoring rising fiscal deficits across the globe and the lacklustre uptick in employment growth.
Some of the markets even appeared to be in an overbought situation.
A series of headline news focusing on fiscal problems faced by few countries in Europe and the regulatory oversight of the financial sector has now brought the focus on the magnitude of the issues and hence, broad markets are now factoring in these issues.
As mentioned above, fundamentals prevail over the medium to long term and India certainly has relatively stronger fundamentals compared with most economies. In that sense, any sharp decline should be viewed as buying opportunities.
In spite of the strong volatility in markets, India has managed to put up a brave front in the face of the European crisis. Can India hold its fort if the crisis deepens and global economies go into another slowdown?
How real is the fear of a double-dip recession in the West?
The Indian economy is largely domestic driven and relatively lower credit growth and the large forex reserve should help India manage this phase comfortably and the drop in global commodity prices should provide some respite. However, export growth has been lagging behind import growth in recent times and could be impacted by a slowdown in Europe, resulting in a wider trade deficit.
Nonetheless, India's resilience through the global slowdown over the past two years clearly underlines the fact that the economy is one of best structural stories across the globe.
The rupee has gone into a tailspin. Is there a risk of strong currency fluctuations hurting some key sectors of the economy?
Currency fluctuations are largely dependent on global sentiments and foreign inflows a strengthening rupee tends to impact export-oriented sectors while benefiting importers as well as reducing the impact of energy imports. However, most companies typically use various instru ments and contract negotiations to mitigate the impact of sharp fluctuations.
FIIs have been net sellers in May. The sentiment of foreign investors appears to be turning weak. What could be the trigger for this outflow? Is it their risk perception for the Indian market or their own domestic concerns?
The selling has been largely due to the change in risk appetite of global investors rather than any macro concerns about India.
Global investors with a longterm view are likely to view any sharp correction (in India) as a buying opportunity. Despite the outflows in May ($2 billion), year-to-date FII flows stand at a healthy $4.6 billion.
One view is that emerging markets are already past their worst and the move ahead from here is upwards? Another view is that emerging markets were actually the biggest beneficiaries of the easy liquidity and as purse strings get tightened, these markets are going to take a bit of a hit. Your views?
The rally seen in 2009 and the early part of this year has been driven by high global liquidity levels and investors being in search of higher yields given the sharp drop in global interest rates. As central banks normalise monetary policies, some of this liquidity will be drained out and it will impact markets. However, instead of lumping all emerging market economies together, one needs to focus on those countries with large populations and strong domestic consumption stories.
Such economies will be able to withstand any slowdown in the global recovery or liquidity. As per Institute of International Finance (IIF) estimates, emerging economies will receive inflows of over $700 billion in 2010, 33.5 per cent more than 2009 level.
What are the five domestic factors you will be watching to remain confident on the economy and the stock market over the next two quarters?
Among an array of domestic economic and corporate indicators, IIP, inflation, earnings, capex and consumption trends will be some of the factors to watch out for over the next two quarters.
For India, we believe at this point in time, key macro challenges are inflation and fiscal deficit. On the latter, the government has outlined a roadmap to consolidate imbalances and reduce government borrowing, which is a positive. However, the progress will need to be monitored, especially on marketdependent items such as disinvestment and subsidy outgo in FY11. Any substantial increase in international crude oil/commodity prices will be key to the inflation outlook for India as well as the monsoon season. The progress on some of the infrastructure programmes and tax reforms is critical for long-term growth.
What's your outlook on earnings upgrade for Indian companies over the next two quarters?
The recent earnings season has been a positive and earnings visibility for the coming quarters is on the brighter side, even as overall trends were divergent across sectors.
However, earnings revisions have slowed in the recent past, with changes being announced for select companies based on business developments. Most of the positive factors seem to be priced in and we will need to see progress in the first half of FY11.
The composition of the Sensex is commodity-heavy and, hence, sustained decline/low commodity prices can impact earnings growth
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