Thursday, July 1, 2010

UP 166 POINTS - Sensex advances 1%, completes best quarterly run in 30 years ...........

 B Y R AJHKUMAR K S HAAWThe Bombay Stock Ex- change's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, gained 166.81, or 1%, to 17,700.90. The gauge climbed for a sixth quarter, its longest winning streak since at least September 1979, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange rose 1.07% to 5,312.50. The BSE 200 Index increased 0.83% to 2,248.06.
The Sensex is trading at 17 times estimated profit, the high- est in Asia excluding Japan and the most expensive among the Bric (Brazil, Russia, India and China) markets. The measure extended gains after a European Central Bank (ECB) tender sig- nalled funding pressure for lenders was easing.

My Comments:
I today read this head lines in Livemint and thought I need to write it down here for readers to read......
what one should understand from this? Without reading below my analysis first try to think yourself, what inference you will draw and then read my view.....and if you have something more intersting to write then write it here in comments.....

"Sensex completes best quaterly run in 30 years....."
It means that Sensex has rosed for 6 quaters consecutively and that has happened for the first time since Sep 1979.....Wow!....what one have to derive from it?
First thing I will do is , I will ask all technicals analyst what they have to say on this?Because I think, this is a unique situation where the chart patterns should give....and I repeat , should give a new pattern, as this unique position has occured after 30 years....and if my learned chartist friends wants to ignore this new unique pattern that has occured , then I will only say view is vindicated....that charts are no good and not good to rely upon.....because even after this winning streak of 6 qrs sensex closing on psoitive, if chartist are not ready to believe it and wnats to IGNORE IT  and wants to play the same TUNE of Bearish view.....then well, I have nothing to write to them........
I would like to see someone , any one chartist, any one technical analyst,who comes frequently on TV channels and gives views , should come forward to say what they feel about this 6 qr winning streak.......
Another thing I would like to write is, when the market has gone up for 6 consecutive quaters and as written in above article, we are at the highest p/e in Asia, and still we keeps on going up , that means that people from overseas are still ready to buy even at high p/e....and when that happens?When these shrewd people from overseas senses that they will be rewarded....and that can only happen if the earnings are going to go up and p/e will become lower .......


  1. Mahagyani(PIGS) people start buying when nifty up 100 point and sell all holding when nifty down 100 point.
    they slaughter generaly both time because there view is for short term only.
    if U want make money from market BE A BULL OR BE A BEAR NEVER PIG
    i m bull and my viewsis for long term only. i celebrate correction for buy good scrip.

  2. Dear Rajeev,

    Other things I am sensing are that India is becoming a more mature market (not on day to day basis). Volatility from now on will be lesser with more confidence in India's growth from FIIs. They will not pull money away for every small negative news.

    Moreover , India could be the leader among the asian peers if what the 6 qtrs streak suggest. China seems to have touched a 52 week low yesterday. So though everyone speaks high of china , the reality is that the FIIs are believing in India more than china.

    while real investors (like RJ & Dhamani) are continuously investing and they openly share it , I believe that even the so called bears or bearish talking people are also investing (but misleading others) and that's why there is a 6 quarters continuous up trend in spite of so many negative noises.

    These are the things I can infer. Please correct if I am wrong.


  3. Hi All

    I Agree with above both Ashok Mahajan and K Murli
    ,yes only MAHAGYANI have SHORT TERM VIEW ....

    This mkt will surely give good return if stocks are held for LT.


  4. Hi Rajeev,
    I tried to search your comments on Socrus bio but could not find it. Can you pls provide me the link to that write-up. Or else can you pls let me know if Socrus bio is a medium term or LT stock.
    Also pls let me know if its a high risk high reward kind of stock. Pls reply without missing it.

  5. Hi Rajeev,
    Monnet Ispat is going great guns. It has reached 402. I remember you'd recommended at 358 on June 9. What a return!!! More to come..

    "Blackstone Picks Up 12.5% In Monnet Power For Rs 275Cr"

    News picked from ----