With crisis in EU countries becoming dangerous and I just read today that Greece will default in 4-5 yrs and with that PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain)sitting on $3 tr debt coming for the default the figure that comes out is $3 tr and that is much bigger then the Lehman Br which was around $600 bn.
In that circumataces I fear that Indian Market can also go lower and come to 15k or even lower.
But the beficiaries will be Asia and among them notably would be China, India and Korea.
Let the things unfold in next 3-6 months and we will see our market making a bottom.What bottom we will see is hard to predict but after that the inflows will come in economies like India where the growth is there and there is no danger of any default like PIIGS.
But the advantage is India, China and other Asian countries like Korea will become safe havens for the FII's.
Here in India the Int rate has peaked out and I actually don't feel that RBI can increase the rate in Sep again.
I feel that with Crude coming down and can go down further , the inflation should come down with good monsoon seen in later part of the monsoon season.
But as the talk of PIIGS countries keeps on coming and untill the outrcome is not decided clearly what is going to happen, market will remain volatile.Market hates uncertainty and when the certainty will arrive, whether the Greece or Ireland or Spain will default and that too for how much and what will be then impact on the global economy, market here and in west will remain volatile.
After that I feel there can be an unprecedented run for our market which will last for longer period then expected by players and market participants.