Sunday, May 31, 2009

Let us Discuss.....Part -2

Coming back to my last post of intelligent and smart investor think that this is an irrational exuberence of Teji or a rally and they wants to encash on this rally. What I want to tell them is,why they didn't find the irrationality when market went down and down for the whole last year?Why the questions arises when there is Teji and why it do not arises when there is Mandi?I don't know the people phycology........why they think like that.....just out of my understanding...Lol...
I read somewhere at some forum that someone wanted to sell when market will touch 12500 and that person is veteran in stock market.He is in market before I started taking interest.Just imagine how much old is in stock market.When a person like him says that he is going to sell and encash the profit when market will cross 12500 then what to tell for novice?Novice who has started taking interest since 4-5 yrs?
Now when market has touched 14500 after crossing 12500 he says he will sell at 16100 perhaps.
Remember one thing here,those who says I will do this, sell ,never believe them.They always misguide people.They speak soemthing and they do something. I spoke about the same thing at some other forum, when I was a member there, when a member said he sold everything in May 2007 and then he came back after few months just to write that he has already bought some stocks.I pointed out that to him at that time and he went wild.He started accsuing me and writing bad for me and ultimately I left that forum.Why don't he wrote that at that forum when he started buying?That was my point.
He is so veteran that people believe in him and act accordingly.When you have such a big fans and friends following how can you miss writing what you did and when someone else point out that ,he goes wild.I am very straight forward person and never budge to anyone who make mistakes.I also do mistakes but I confess.But when some one makes a mistakes and when others takes decision on that and miss something I points out openly and that is my nature.If the mistake is not harming anyone I don't bother but when people takes your word as a sacred word then you have responsibility to fulfill and that I pointed out.
And I point out very bluntly .Maybe my writing loosk more harsh but that it is.But one needs to have courage to confess it.That was one of the reason I left that forum.
I can't stay in such a place where there are dubious talk, and I am not saying all were such but taking side of him who erred is also unpardonable to me .I hate that.Be trasperant.That is the bottomline.Mistakes all makes.
Well, coming back to intelligent people , who feels that market has run up much ahead of any fundamentals, I have only this to say them.Well, agreed that the runup is the steepest in the history of last 17 years.The last one month,May 2009, runup by the market is the biggest ever in last 17 years.It means that even when we were in Bull market from 2003 to 2007 end there was no such big upmove that we saw in this Month of May.That is ashtonishing, isn't it?And when people looks at this they feel that it is irrational.
But what I wants to tell them is why market went up so fast?The real reason is that market was tanked beyond limit and hence it came up so fast as soon as the positive news came on the front.Even at this points there are scores of stock in Mid/smallcap space which are way below the high.And there is no surprise that Mark Mobious is bullish in this space.
The scenario has changed.In past when Mr.Shankar Sharma use to come at CNBC and speaks about bad world economic scenario market use to tank.But even though he or his wife, Ms Devina Mehra comes and speaks about market , that this is a bear rally, market is not coming down.That is the change in sentiment.That is the change in the mindset of the people that even though they hear , Messers Shankar Sharma ,Marc Faber and Mr Ramesh Damani and likes market is not going down.That shows that people are not buying their story and actually taking contra view.
The reason we saw the biggest points gain in last 17 years , in a single month ,is the stock were battered so heavily that as soon as the positive news started pouring in ,market went bersek.
Well, now we need to discuss why our and world market tanked?Was there any problem with any countries economic growth?The answer is BIG "NO".....the reason market world over tanked was because of US subprime crises and that hence liquidity getting quezzed.There was no money in the system and as soon as the liquidity is infused the things starts becoming normal.The entire fall can get arrested and that is what is happening.People use to argue that printing money will increase the inflation but that happens only when the money is already in the system, means no liquidity crunch but when there is no money in the system then how inflation will take place?
See, even after the biggest rally we saw in month of May we can see that many stocks are available at cheaper rates and hence there is lots of room left for Mid/Smallcap to outperform the sensex.More and more people will feel left out and they will wait for market to tank and it will never happen.

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