Saturday, May 30, 2009

Let us Discuss.....Part -1

Some intelligent and smart people thinks that there is no change in fundamentals since 2-3 months and hence this rally is about to get terminated in ST.
The price rise do not warrent when everything is where it is.They are selling to buy at perhaps 10500 or even below.They says they are encashing money while selling in this rally as this is unwarrented and it is irrational .
People who are left buying are feeling the heat.They wants the market to come back so that they can buy what they sold with small profit or were not able to buy at all.But market is always smarter then a lay investor, howmuch he is well read.Reading books after books makes no sense.People keeps on buying books on Warren Buffet,Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and many more but it never helps.Why? Because when one takes decision to buy or sell something , he takes it on the spur of the moment.It is all phycological GAME.
If people can read books and make money following that then no one would make any loss.Even after reading all books the market becomes such that all the lesson learnt is forgotten.
I have never in my life read any of the books.Maybe some quote here or there in News paper or at some forum but never read any book.
Let me write to all my readers that I do not know how to read Balance Sheet.Yes,I don't know how it is read.What I am able to read is results of stocks.
Nothing more then that.What is Cash Flow,what is RONW then EPBDT (some thing like that) it is all Greek and Latin for me.
So please bear with me if I am unable to answer queries on Balance sheet etc.I know nothing about it.
What I know is SALES, NET PROFIT,EQ,BV,PROM HOLDING, Mcap,EPS,P/E....that's all.......and it is over.I can never go far from these parametres.These are my limitations.
So take your own decision whether you all still needs to follow me,means read me or NOT.
I have always written here that I do not believe in charts.It is just like astrology.When a person becomes famous astrology says that due to this stars ,planets, he become such a big Star(Bollywood).No one on the earth said that Amitabh Bachhan would become a mega star.None even wrote that after making a Loss of over 100 cr in ABC Corp Ltd Amitabh Bachhan would make a comeback and will regain all his wealth and even make more then he lost.
Charts are such.No one on the earth said that market can touch 14500 by May 2009.If some one can recall, 10500 was a very big resistance for market to go up from there.Then there was a very big resistance at 11200 then 12700.....One of my friend who has started reading and learning charts was also of the same view that 10500 was the maximum market can go.Now he claims that he said market can also go to 14500 and now he also claims that market can go upto 16500 and when I said market will touch 17500 he says , yes there is a remote possibilty that it can touch 18100...LOL............they keeps on claiming everything even they prove wrong.
Our very learned master Mr Ramesh Damani, whom I respect very much, also making some bad calls.He said once that if market crosses 12700 and remian there for few days then I have to change my view.That has happened and he still says that we are still in bear market and this is bear market rally.
I think when people starts looking at charts they become stuborn.They never accept they were wrong.
I think there are many chart analyst who use to read my blog as well and they use to write me what would be levels and how much market can go down or up etc.But since last 2-3 months none has claimed anything here.
The reason I do not believe in charts is,it keeps on changing.If certain level is crossed then we need to look at the upmove from some other level and then the entire scenario changes.Then again if market gives a correction and if goes below some support then the entire waves needs to be considered in other way.
There are many trend lines we need to learn and that trend line is always interpreted differently by each chartist.Some will says that the trend line is say,12700, some says it is 11200 so on and so forth.
I will only ask here , that can anyone claim , even give me evidence , of himself or any other chartist who told or written that we will be at 14500 by May 2009?
Charts are for day tarders.We are investors and hence we needs to look at fundamentals and try to find when the economy is going to turn around and there are certains sectors to look at and that I have written here many times.Even charts are no good for day traders.The opertors use to sit with chartist and they usually eat the Stop Loss and then from there the stock goes up...
I do not believe in tips .Daily tips.Subcsribing for them for a small fees of 1000 or 1500.They claims that they gives sureshot tips and many use to claim that their clients earned 30,000 -40,000 profit on such and such call.It is all bullshit.Means I am not saying that they have not earned but in other call they lose all they earned.If they are so sure when don't they play by them sleves?Why they need to go and find subscriber?
One of my friend gave me a reason that this same FII will start selling at the end of the year and then see where the market will be?But then why they are buying now to sellso soon?I don't buy this is rubbish....kisi ke demag ka tukka hai....trying to justify his bearish stance....


  1. FABULOUS !!! I have no words to describe this article.....

  2. Hi Rajeev,
    Thanks for doing great you have been always putting good articles and recommendations.

    The current scenario looks like we are making a base for new high, as political results have made FII to jump in taking first mover advantage and now individual investors, MFs etc. are pouring in as they have missed the initial rally.
    FII which have already made a good amount of money in this rally would not like to exit soon because they will wait for the current quarter results and which I think will be much better than previous one…so they will hold for little longer than expected.
    And then everything will depends on global cues which are improving day by day so putting everything together we will be around 17k-18k on BSE at the end of the year and making new high around May-June 2010…except some very bad news comes in.

    Mitzzz..will be celebrating early Diwali as he has made good profit out of this rally :)..keep it up!!

    Rajeev can you put your comments on Cairn India Ltd.