Thursday, May 28, 2009

Market not budging down...........

Market is not budging down and giving bad dreams to Bears.It was up by over 500 points yesterday.
This is not a bear market rally.Market tanks after a run up like this in Bear market rally.Market is not going down below certian levels.I have already written here that 12000 is going to be a very strong support for any reason to take market down.
I have written here in past that by June 09 we should see a turnaround and that is happening.If global economy is going to make a comeback market will start discounting the news 6 months early and that we are seeing.I have written that it may happen that by June 09, we may not get a chance to getin cheaper and that is what people are experiancing it.
The US economy is turning around and hence we are seeing Dow going up.It will make a new high next year.
The recession is ending soon then all expected.No one on the earth was expecting it so soon but market was giving the hints.First biggets hint was given by our market when NDA got full majority and left were eliminated.That was the biggest surprise for every analyst.I remember I heard the talk show that was taken up by CNBC before election and the participants were Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Ridham Desai(Morgan Stanely) and Vallabh Bhansali (Enam Sec) and among them only RJ was bullish and he said we can see 12500 by election.
Ridham Desai(heard that he is of same caste of mine, Desai) was very wary of our market and was saying that 6000 can come and chances are more that we can see 6000 levels citing all reasons at that time and he made a U turn couple of days back saying that our market can touch 19500 by the end of the year.
Now one has to decide how much faith one should put with the Fund Managers.Even Niliesh Shah of ICICI was circumspect about the market and when I saw him with Ramesh Damani , Madhu Kela , he was giving some atrocious answers to the question asked by Ramesh Damani who was a Host there.
I am hearing and reading that LIC the biggest DI has Rs 1,00,000 cr, means over $20 bn to invest in equites, Bonds etc.Some 20,000 to 30,000 cr is laying in cash with DII's.On the top of that FII's will deploy more money this year as well as next year.I don't have to write what can happen in that case.Good stocks which are still availablke cheap are going to be lapped up by HNI's,DII,FII's etc.....
The new government new FM, Mr Pranab Mukerji has already said that their government wants to bring the GDP growth back to 9% and I have no doubt that under the astute guidence of Dr.Manmohan Singh ,we are going to climb back to 9% GDP.
Market is going up or bucking up any points it use to lose the previous day.Making higher base and taking time to consolidate.That is dangerous for Bears.Let SS and party remain in wrong notion that this is a bear market rally.There is no demarcation for when bear rally becomes a Bull market platform and those can see it is the WINNER.
I have been writing since long on that ....barring in between when I thought that US recession is going to last long but US seems to be coming out fast from the recession or slow down what ever we may call.
Everyone is thinking that US is gone but that is not going to happen.They have vast lands and ares where they can find Gas and Oils as well.
The crude going up was the first hint of something turning around.Oil and Gas co will again be the front runner.Viz:Dolphin Offshore, Shiv Vani,Selan Exlploration etc etc.
With Crude going up again the other fuels sector like Solar,Biofules will also gain momentum.
It is upto you friends what you need to do now.........


  1. Hello Ramesh Sir, How are you ? Hope doing good in US. After long time sending u any post after jan 08 losses..:(.
    Continue doing great work, lakhs of followers are waitng every day to see you post.

    God bless you.

  2. Hi Manoj,
    Extemly sorry to know about your losses.But we all are recovering our loses with market again going up and that includes me.I was also no exception in that I also made a paper loss but I hold what I was having.........
    I hope you will recover your loss as soon as possible.
    and BTW I am not Ramesh but Rajeev.I am afraid if you were following Ramesh Damani who use to come on moneycontrol site to chat every Tuesday.
    I hope you are not mixing him with me....

  3. Hi Rajeev Ji,

    Please share your views on Hind-Dorr.

    Read today in the press release report that their order book as of 28-May-09 is 1300 crores.


  4. Dear Sumit,
    Well,Hind Dorr is a very good co no doubt.But it is 2 paid up share and it means that it is now at Rs 380 when we count on as 10 paidup with the cmp of Rs 76.
    While PSL Ltd is 10 paid up and has 6500 cr order book.
    Take the case of JMC Pro or Mcnally Bharat , my old pick, and you can see that they are much cheaper then Hind Door.
    The piont I want to highlight is ,why not buy 10 paid up shares where the retrun can be much bigger then Hind Dorr?
    I hope u understand my point....

  5. Hi Rajeev Ji,

    Thanks for the update on Hind Dorr. I bought PSL Ltd yesterday at 135.

    The next question that I have is will the old picks given below ever make the new highs after crossing the highs they made in the bull run in past.

    I have been holding all of these from the time you recommended and beleive me I was making 100% profit in almost all of them but did not sell them for greed.

    1)Rishi Laser
    2) chordia food
    3) vadilal ind
    4) FCS Software
    5) KIC Metaliks,
    6) munjal showa,
    7) suryachakra power,
    8) ALUMECO INDIA EXTRUSION (pennar profiles)

    I know I could have sold half of them. But anyways I have taken the lesson now.

    Would like to know if they can go their previous highs or not. This will give me hope of holding them onto in my posrtfolio.

    Please share your views/thoughts on these old scripts.


  6. Hello Rajeev Sir, Sorry for that I know you as Nakul from MMB, I know its your son name.
    Sorry once again. Those losses in 08 I made in FNO.


  7. Hi Sumit,
    All the stock that you listed are fundamentally good stocks and they will move when their time will come....