Monday, December 7, 2009

Is market overvalued?......

I use to see that there is lots of discussion going on whether the market is overvalued or has got saturated or very less steam left to go up.
The reasons given and discussed are ,the EPS of Nifty and P/E of Nifty.Analyst and experts, some so called expert feels that at 17k we are at saturation point and there is no way market can go up and hence people are not ready to put money in the market.
One of my friend asked me whether what he thinks is correct?I asked what he thinks and he said that 80% of the stocks are saturated and I said what your mind say is correct.
I can't tell him what I feel and then after saying market has not got saturated I will have to justify my stand giving all world of reasons and that will take my lots of time and energy as well.Have I gone mad to give him answer that I don't feel so?
But what I do not understand is why experts feel that nifty is at 900 eps and hence 19 p/e is good enough to decide that market is saturated.
How many people plays in Nifty?How many investors invest in only Nifty listed stocks?There is big world over and above Nifty and people are not able to come out from it.Barring nifty and sensex there is a big big gr of stocks and they are still going cheap.They keeps in singing the tune of Nifty and sensex.
Moreover what they forget is market discounts future and not present and hence taking market call on present nifty earnings makes no sense.So can it be concurred that when sensex will touch 21k or nifty 61oo then market will return back and that will be the end ?
What needs to be seen is the retail participation.It is still not there.There are still scepticism lingering on them and unless that scepticism is not gone market will continue to go up.Unless the euphoria do not come market cannot correct heavily.
What needs to be seen is where are those 52 week highs which we saw in Jan 2008?Is the 52 week high page in ET becoming bigger?Then where is the madrush?
As I have said many times here, market may try to touch 21k this year or by early next year.Seems 19k is on cards this year.Let us see ....
But sure this is not the time to be sceptic.Buy where you see the value.
Stocks like Laffans Petro, India Glycols,Ennore Coke, PAE ,Patel Airtemp,Max India,KPIT Cummins , Surya Pharma, Jupiter Bio etc which I have been recomending here recently and since the start of year are looking good.There are some laggards as well but no one knows when they start running.
I have just read couple of days back that in next 3 years there will be an allocation of Rs 1,10,000 cr road project.Now that is HUGE.One has to just take clue from it.
Lots of work is still tobe done on Infrastructure front.We needs international standard PORTS,AIRPORTS,ROADS, HOUSINGS,COMMERCIALS , DAMS, POWER GENERATOR COS AND what not......karne ke liye bahut hai.....friends who has come back from a visit of China says that China is doing extremly good and we are even no match to China leave developed countries like USA, France, UK etc....


  1. Hello Rajeevji,I was in china for 2 months in the month of Aug-oct, we are no where China, the infrastructure what they have, India will take around 25-50 years to reach that standard, even a Tier-2 city in china is 1000% times better than a so called A-list city Bangalore in India,lots and lots to be done, we can do but we don't, chinese philosophy looks to be we cant't do but still we will (atleast a try)... its all about the mentality, changes and the implementation.

  2. hi,

    Please go through this item. I find it interesting.


  3. Dear Rajeev,
    Their is some type of fight between merchant bankers in JSW energy IPO. This merchant banker trying to undermine sentiment.Media is also negative. should i still go for that.I want to play big on this IPO.


  4. TT,
    I think you are mature enough to take a decision on JSW Energy.
    If you wants to go for the IPO and not convinced then you need to ignore and if you want more conviction try to go through the IPO contents 3-4 times.Read and read again and again...what I have done is just highlighted what I thought was good positives.Now to go or not to go for JSW Energy is entirly ones decision.....but according to me everything is written there.I am in USA and I have no way to go to the plant site to visit it.....So hence I am equally as good as that matter.I donno any negatives as such and they may be there....This is stock market...anything can happen..