Friends,
I like Adlabs Ltd.I like the way AnilAmbani has chartered the route of growth for Reliance Media Works.
For any Film to get released it has to go through the processing.Untill it is proccessed in a Lab there can't be any print taken out.If anyone going to theatre to see movie or try to see at own TV while putting a CD or DVD in player, one can see the title coming first.Like Actors name, Actress Name,other artist, Photograhpy by..., then Asst Dir, Asst Producer, then one can see where it is processed.....and in almost all film that one go to see, the name that comes for where the Film was processed is none other then Adlabs Ltd.....This name one should have always seen whenever they see a movie .The Producer gets changed,the Dir Gets changed,the actors get changed, the name of the film gets changed but the Lab where the Film is processed is always Adlabs Ltd......This name one will always find in any film.
3-4 yrs back Anil Ambani Media gr tookover this Co from the then owner Manmohan Shetty.ADAG gr after that has made many annoucement for making venture film which can have both of the Hollywood and Bollywood.He has also tied up with the Hollywood best director, Steven Speilberg and some of the best actors of Hollywood.
Rel MediaWorks has got its overseas distribution Co as well and latest , they have distributed Paa and 3 Idiots overseas including USA.
I today just went through the ET and a news caught my eyes which says that Rel MediaWorks is taking over a Lab in UK...
Read on:
Reliance MediaWorks acquires ilab UK
Buyout To Help Reliance Tap Entertainment Cos Looking To Outsource Production & Development
Our Bureau MUMBAI
RELIANCE MediaWorks (RMW), formerly Adlabs, has acquired the assets of ilab UK Ltd., one of only two film processing facilities operating in London’s Soho. With this acquisition, RMW has expanded and strengthened its international presence which is already spread well across the globe.
With ilab, RMW offers a dedicated film and media services facility in London, that will offer front-end, processing, restoration, 2D to 3D conversion and post-production services to broadcasters and studios. In fact, ilab has been the lab of choice for high end processing for film, television, commercial and shorts productions. “Our expansion is growing at a remarkable pace. The UK is one of the world’s leading post-production markets and now we have a presence there. Through RMW UK we would provide next generation services for the local film makers and broadcasters, while also catering to Hollywood and Hindi film businesses,” said CEO RMW, Anil Arjun.
While strengthening their services portfolio in UK, Arjun says they gain talent, experience and local learning that ilabs team brings on board. “We look forward to the creative synergies that integrating of UK operations would bring to the entire film and media services value chain that RMW has developed across continents, ” Arjun added.
RMW UK has already secured image processing and restoration work for two high profile projects from BBC at RMW’s LA-based subsidiary Lowry Digital, Hollywood’s leading film restoration expert. Lowry Digital has handled projects for leading studios like Walt Disney, Paramount Pictures, MGM and 20th Century Fox and entertainment leaders like George Lucas, Steven Spielberg and James Cameron. Also recently, Lowry Digital has handled the restoration of footage sent back to Earth from Apollo 11, as part of the 40th anniversary celebrations of the mission for NASA.
To further enhance the synergy between the services offered by RMW across three continents, the company has established an optical fibre network, first of its kind, through Reliance Globalcom’s Ethernet Private Line. This network has already been used for close to a year for distributing digital cinema releases of Indian films from Mumbai to the US.
In the past year, ilabs has been the rushes house of choice for the majority of high-end film originated Drama Series for the BBC and offers bespoke, specialist rushes service night and day for the commercials, feature and broadcast market. Apart from tying in with RMW’s lab facility in Mumbai, it will be able to offer lab, rushes and transfer services to the many Indian films that are shot on location in London and UK each year.
Reliance MediaWorks has a dominant and comprehensive presence in Film Services: Motion Picture Processing and DI; Visual Effects; Film Restoration and Image Enhancement; Digital Mastering: Studios and Equipment rentals with facilities located at US and India.
My Comments:
At 269 , a 5 paidup stock with a high of 463 and low of 136, it is at the midway between them.I had given a call on UTv and I am giving another call in same sector RelMediaworks Ltd.I remember ADAG gr has annouced an investment of 4500 cr for making film which consist of Hollywood and Bollywood actors.....
Friday, January 8, 2010
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Transgene Biotek tie-ups with Dr Reddy's Laboratories ....updates on Bombay Dyeing..
Friends,
Here comes the news for Transgene Bio which I have been recomending since my mmb days.I have even once recomended here as well.It was not moving at all and now with this new tieup with Dr Reddy's .....it should show some movement.Transgene has also tied up with Cuba for some other drugs which if explored will be found.....
Transgene Biotek tie-ups with Dr Reddy's Laboratories
Thursday, January 07, 2010 17:45 IST
Our Bureau, Mumbai
Transgene Biotek Ltd (TBL) has entered into a licensing and technology transfer agreement with Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) for the out-licensing of a technology for the manufacture of Orlistat. Through this tieup, DRL will gain worldwide rights to a unique technology for the manufacture and commercialization of Orlistat API which was developed exclusively by TBL. The company will receive an upfront payment, additional payments for certain commercial milestones, and royalties on the sale of Orlistat API in all countries worldwide.
Orlistat is a lipase inhibitor used for obesity management that acts by preventing the absorption of fats from the human diet, thereby reducing caloric intake, and is the most studied weight loss medicine in the world, with more than 100 clinical studies, involving more than 30,000 patients. Is is used in the treatment of Obesity including management of weight loss and weight maintenance.
TBL earlier out-licensed its recombinant Hepatitis B Vaccine technology to Serum Institute of India, one of the largest vaccine producers in world.
Updates on Bombay Dyeing....:
CLSA has come out with a report for Bombay Dyeing.It says that the project for the land they owns that is coming up , the NAV is 1350/share after deducting the loss of textile unit......
Here comes the news for Transgene Bio which I have been recomending since my mmb days.I have even once recomended here as well.It was not moving at all and now with this new tieup with Dr Reddy's .....it should show some movement.Transgene has also tied up with Cuba for some other drugs which if explored will be found.....
Transgene Biotek tie-ups with Dr Reddy's Laboratories
Thursday, January 07, 2010 17:45 IST
Our Bureau, Mumbai
Transgene Biotek Ltd (TBL) has entered into a licensing and technology transfer agreement with Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) for the out-licensing of a technology for the manufacture of Orlistat. Through this tieup, DRL will gain worldwide rights to a unique technology for the manufacture and commercialization of Orlistat API which was developed exclusively by TBL. The company will receive an upfront payment, additional payments for certain commercial milestones, and royalties on the sale of Orlistat API in all countries worldwide.
Orlistat is a lipase inhibitor used for obesity management that acts by preventing the absorption of fats from the human diet, thereby reducing caloric intake, and is the most studied weight loss medicine in the world, with more than 100 clinical studies, involving more than 30,000 patients. Is is used in the treatment of Obesity including management of weight loss and weight maintenance.
TBL earlier out-licensed its recombinant Hepatitis B Vaccine technology to Serum Institute of India, one of the largest vaccine producers in world.
Updates on Bombay Dyeing....:
CLSA has come out with a report for Bombay Dyeing.It says that the project for the land they owns that is coming up , the NAV is 1350/share after deducting the loss of textile unit......
DQ Entertainment......INDIAN FIRM BUYS RIGHTS TO MAKE CHAPLIN ANIMATION...IPO Coming..
DQ Entertainment, Method Animation and MK2 to collaborate to produce TV series, movies
INDIAN FIRM BUYS RIGHTS TO MAKE CHAPLIN ANIMATION
AMINAH SHEIKH Mumbai, 6 January
“A day without a laugh is a wasted day,” said Charlie Chaplin in his famous comedy character. Now, several decades later, that icon of the silent film era will dawn on our television screens in an animated avatar.
An Indian animation and special effects company, DQ Entertainment, headquartered in Hyderabad, has acquired the animation remaking rights of Charlie Chaplin from the Chaplin family, in collaboration with two French companies, Method Animation and MK2.
The legendary comedy show will be produced by them in animated format, as a television series and as movies.
While a formal announcement is expected in this week, the production is already reported underway. Tapaas Chakravarti, the Chairman and CEO of DQ Entertainment was not available for comment.
Sources say DQ is also in talks with multiple channels internationally to telecast the animated series worldwide, including Europe, Japan, Australia, UK and China. The telecast rights in India are yet to sold.
The Charlie Chaplin series had started in the early 1900s, featuring a character who captured the hearts of generations with his toothbrush mustache,a funny walk and two prized possessions, a hat and a bamboo cane.
The sources said the TV series will first go on air, followed by the movies.
DQ plans to raise around Rs 150 crore through an Initial Public Offer, for which it is divesting close to 25 per cent of its equity. Earlier, the company had announced filing of its Draft Red Herring Prospectus, on September 30 last year, with the Securities and Exchange Board of India. The lead manager for the issue is SBI Capital Markets and the syndicate banks are YES Bank and India Infoline. According to sources, the company will raise an additional Rs 62 crore from internal accrual and bank loans.
DQ is a production house for visual effects, digital animation for television, feature films, and animation games for PCs and consoles. It has worked with Walt Disney Television Animation, Marvel Comics, Nickelodeon Animation Studios, Electronic Arts, the BBC Group and NBC Universal, among others. Some of the projects have been The Jungle Book ,Casper Iron Man animation series, Omkar ,Little Nick Tara Duncan.
In December 2007, DQ had listed on the Alternative Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange and raised $56 million. The funds were used to boost its distribution network globally, to develop production facilities in India and other business plans.
Currently, it employs around 2,800 permanent staff and 700 freelancers. It has offices in Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, Paris, Los Angeles, and Tokyo.
My Comments:
I think the IPO of DQ Entertainment would be a great thing to apply for.I donno what is the issue price so can't speak much on that.Let us see at what price the IPO comes.But this is one IPO where investor needs to lookout for....and I think DQ stands for Data Quest and there is one co who is publising Data Quest Magazine, I can't remember the name but it is an IT Co a listed one...and hence they maybe holding stake in DQ Entertainment....try to find that Co....
INDIAN FIRM BUYS RIGHTS TO MAKE CHAPLIN ANIMATION
AMINAH SHEIKH Mumbai, 6 January
“A day without a laugh is a wasted day,” said Charlie Chaplin in his famous comedy character. Now, several decades later, that icon of the silent film era will dawn on our television screens in an animated avatar.
An Indian animation and special effects company, DQ Entertainment, headquartered in Hyderabad, has acquired the animation remaking rights of Charlie Chaplin from the Chaplin family, in collaboration with two French companies, Method Animation and MK2.
The legendary comedy show will be produced by them in animated format, as a television series and as movies.
While a formal announcement is expected in this week, the production is already reported underway. Tapaas Chakravarti, the Chairman and CEO of DQ Entertainment was not available for comment.
Sources say DQ is also in talks with multiple channels internationally to telecast the animated series worldwide, including Europe, Japan, Australia, UK and China. The telecast rights in India are yet to sold.
The Charlie Chaplin series had started in the early 1900s, featuring a character who captured the hearts of generations with his toothbrush mustache,a funny walk and two prized possessions, a hat and a bamboo cane.
The sources said the TV series will first go on air, followed by the movies.
DQ plans to raise around Rs 150 crore through an Initial Public Offer, for which it is divesting close to 25 per cent of its equity. Earlier, the company had announced filing of its Draft Red Herring Prospectus, on September 30 last year, with the Securities and Exchange Board of India. The lead manager for the issue is SBI Capital Markets and the syndicate banks are YES Bank and India Infoline. According to sources, the company will raise an additional Rs 62 crore from internal accrual and bank loans.
DQ is a production house for visual effects, digital animation for television, feature films, and animation games for PCs and consoles. It has worked with Walt Disney Television Animation, Marvel Comics, Nickelodeon Animation Studios, Electronic Arts, the BBC Group and NBC Universal, among others. Some of the projects have been The Jungle Book ,Casper Iron Man animation series, Omkar ,Little Nick Tara Duncan.
In December 2007, DQ had listed on the Alternative Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange and raised $56 million. The funds were used to boost its distribution network globally, to develop production facilities in India and other business plans.
Currently, it employs around 2,800 permanent staff and 700 freelancers. It has offices in Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, Paris, Los Angeles, and Tokyo.
My Comments:
I think the IPO of DQ Entertainment would be a great thing to apply for.I donno what is the issue price so can't speak much on that.Let us see at what price the IPO comes.But this is one IPO where investor needs to lookout for....and I think DQ stands for Data Quest and there is one co who is publising Data Quest Magazine, I can't remember the name but it is an IT Co a listed one...and hence they maybe holding stake in DQ Entertainment....try to find that Co....
Stride Arcolab.....cmp..234.95.......making giant strides...
Friends,
I have been tracking this Co since 2005-06.It was suppose to have prospered as a great pharma co but that didn't happened.But since last 6 months I am reading good news on this upcoming pharma Co.
I would not write what Co was going through in last 6 months .That I keep it for my readers to explore what this Pharma Co was doing.
But today when I read news in BS I can't resist myself to write on it.
I am pasting that article of BS here.....
Read on:
Pfizer to source 40 off-patent cancer care drugs from Strides
BS REPORTER Bangalore, 6 January
Global pharma major Pfizer is to source source 40 off-patent (generic) cancer care products from Bangalore-based Strides Arcolab and sell the products in the United States.
Announcing this deal today, the two companies said they had formed a collaboration wherein Pfizer will commercialise off-patent sterile injectable and oral products in the US through its Established Products Business Unit (EPBU), which focuses on generics. The EPBU launched its US injectables team less than 10 months earlier and is already marketing products there.
These dosage-form cancer care products will be licensed and supplied by Strides and Onco Laboratories Ltd and Onco Therapies Ltd, two joint ventures between Strides and Aspen, South Africa, in which each has a 50 per cent ownership interest. The financial terms of the supply agreement were not disclosed.
Strides, with a top line of close to Rs 2,000 crore, will deliver the 40 off-patent products, many of which are oncology therapeutics, to healthcare providers and patients in the US, by joining Pfizer’s commercial infrastructure with Strides’s manufacturing capabilities. The first of the products commercialised under this collaboration is expected to be launched in 2010.
“This Strides collaboration is new and exciting, and we are encouraged about the potential of this relationship,” said David Simmons, president and general manager of Pfizer’s EPBU. “In addition, this agreement brings the total number of products in-licensed by our Established Products Business Unit to more than 200 — resulting in a total business unit portfolio of approximately 600 products for patients.”
I have been tracking this Co since 2005-06.It was suppose to have prospered as a great pharma co but that didn't happened.But since last 6 months I am reading good news on this upcoming pharma Co.
I would not write what Co was going through in last 6 months .That I keep it for my readers to explore what this Pharma Co was doing.
But today when I read news in BS I can't resist myself to write on it.
I am pasting that article of BS here.....
Read on:
Pfizer to source 40 off-patent cancer care drugs from Strides
BS REPORTER Bangalore, 6 January
Global pharma major Pfizer is to source source 40 off-patent (generic) cancer care products from Bangalore-based Strides Arcolab and sell the products in the United States.
Announcing this deal today, the two companies said they had formed a collaboration wherein Pfizer will commercialise off-patent sterile injectable and oral products in the US through its Established Products Business Unit (EPBU), which focuses on generics. The EPBU launched its US injectables team less than 10 months earlier and is already marketing products there.
These dosage-form cancer care products will be licensed and supplied by Strides and Onco Laboratories Ltd and Onco Therapies Ltd, two joint ventures between Strides and Aspen, South Africa, in which each has a 50 per cent ownership interest. The financial terms of the supply agreement were not disclosed.
Strides, with a top line of close to Rs 2,000 crore, will deliver the 40 off-patent products, many of which are oncology therapeutics, to healthcare providers and patients in the US, by joining Pfizer’s commercial infrastructure with Strides’s manufacturing capabilities. The first of the products commercialised under this collaboration is expected to be launched in 2010.
“This Strides collaboration is new and exciting, and we are encouraged about the potential of this relationship,” said David Simmons, president and general manager of Pfizer’s EPBU. “In addition, this agreement brings the total number of products in-licensed by our Established Products Business Unit to more than 200 — resulting in a total business unit portfolio of approximately 600 products for patients.”
My Comments:
Stride Aroclab has made inroads in Cancer drugs and has been able to have MNC like Pfizer collobarating for Off Patenet drug in cancer.
That is to me a major breakthrough for Stride Arcolab.Seems happy days are here again for Stride Aroclab.A 2000 cr topline pharma Co going just at Rs 234....! Wow!The patent are no less then 40! That is big....numbers.
Rest of the DD I would like to be done by my readers.......Promoters holdoing 25.73% and other Corp investor holding 54.31 % , means 80% is with biggies and hence only 20% remains with public.....that is added trigger for this upcoming Pharma Co...
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Deep Ind...cmp 113......In Gas Compression Service.....
Freinds,
I gave a call on Deep Ind in sep 09 .It is at the same place.Not much movement.
With more and more Gas found in our reservoiers , Gas Compression Service will have a big future as Gas found needs to be compressed to fill in the tank to take it from one place to another place.It needs to be compressed while also taking out from the earth.
I know nothing about how the things work at the site and how it is done.This is just a come sense thinking.I maybe wrong in understanding the whole process of when the gas is taken out from the reservoier and filled in the tank etc.....
But simple logical thinking is that Gas should be compressed before filling in any tank.
So I would like to know from my readers if any Co other then Deep Ind , which is listed or not listed in our market do the same type of work,Compressing Gas.....
I gave a call on Deep Ind in sep 09 .It is at the same place.Not much movement.
With more and more Gas found in our reservoiers , Gas Compression Service will have a big future as Gas found needs to be compressed to fill in the tank to take it from one place to another place.It needs to be compressed while also taking out from the earth.
I know nothing about how the things work at the site and how it is done.This is just a come sense thinking.I maybe wrong in understanding the whole process of when the gas is taken out from the reservoier and filled in the tank etc.....
But simple logical thinking is that Gas should be compressed before filling in any tank.
So I would like to know from my readers if any Co other then Deep Ind , which is listed or not listed in our market do the same type of work,Compressing Gas.....
Cramped on Land, Big Oil Bets at Sea ..............
Cramped on Land, Big Oil Bets at Sea
by Ben Casselman and Guy Chazan
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
provided by The WallStreet Journal.
Chevron
Chevron is leasing the Clear Leader, which floats in 4,300 feet of water in the Gulf of Mexico, to drill for oil through nearly five miles of rock.
Big Oil never wanted to be here, in 4,300 feet of water far out in the Gulf of Mexico, drilling through nearly five miles of rock.
It is an expensive way to look for oil. Chevron Corp. is paying nearly $500,000 a day to the owner of the Clear Leader, one of the world's newest and most powerful drilling rigs. The new well off the coast of Louisiana will connect to a huge platform floating nearby, which cost Chevron $650 million to build. The first phase of this oil-exploration project took more than 10 years and cost $2.7 billion -- with no guarantee it would pay off.
More from WSJ.com:
Drill, Baby, Drill: Does Virginia's Gov-Elect's Call for Offshore Drilling Add Up?
Apple to Ship Tablet Device in March
World's Tallest Skyscraper Opens in Dubai
Chevron came here, an hour-long helicopter ride south of New Orleans, because so many of the places it would rather be -- big, easily tapped oil fields close to shore -- have become off-limits. Western oil companies have been kicked out of much of the Middle East in recent decades, had assets seized in Venezuela and seen much of the U.S. roped off because of environmental regulations. Their access in Iran is limited by sanctions, in Russia by curbs on foreign investment, in Iraq by violence.
So, Chevron and other major oil companies are moving ever farther from shore in search of oil. That quest is paying off as these companies discover unexpectedly large quantities of oil -- oil that only they have the technology and financial muscle to find and produce.
In May, the first wells from Chevron's latest Gulf of Mexico project came online. The wells are now pumping 125,000 barrels of oil a day, making the project one of the gulf's biggest producers. In September, BP PLC announced what could be the biggest discovery in the gulf in years: a field that could hold three billion barrels.
Beyond the Gulf of Mexico, companies have announced big finds off the coasts of Brazil and Ghana, leading some experts to suggest the existence of a massive oil reservoir stretching across the Atlantic from Africa to South America. Production from deepwater projects -- those in water at least 1,000 feet deep -- grew by 67%, or by about 2.3 million barrels a day, between 2005 and 2008, according to PFC Energy, a Washington consulting firm.
The discoveries come as many of the giant oil fields of the past century are beginning to dry up, and as some experts are warning that global oil production could soon reach a peak and begin to decline. The new deepwater fields represent a huge and largely untapped source of oil, which could help ease fears that the world won't be able to meet demand for energy, which is expected to grow rapidly in coming years.
For oil companies, the discoveries mean something more: After a decade of retreat, large Western energy companies are taking back the lead in the quest to find oil. "A lot of people can get the very easy oil," says George Kirkland, Chevron's vice chairman. "There's just not a lot of it left."
There are challengers to Big Oil's deepwater dominance. Brazil recently has moved to give a larger share of its offshore oil to its state-run oil company, Petrobras. A handful of smaller companies, such as Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Tullow Oil PLC, have had success offshore, particularly in Ghana, where giants like BP and Exxon Mobil Corp. are now playing catch-up.
The enormous investments of time and money required for such projects have made many experts skeptical that they can ease the long-term pressure on global oil supplies. The scale of the projects means that few smaller companies have the resources to take them on. Devon Energy Corp., an independent producer based in Oklahoma City, recently announced plans to abandon its deepwater-exploration business to focus on less-expensive onshore projects, which is says will produce a better return.
"This is technology capable of going to the moon," says Robin West, chairman of consulting firm PFC Energy, involving "extraordinary uncertainty, immense levels of information processing, staggering amounts of capital."
Offshore drilling is almost as old as the oil industry itself. In the 1890s, companies began prospecting for oil from piers extending off the beach near Santa Barbara, Calif. Gulf Oil drilled the world's first fully offshore well from cedar pilings on a shallow lake near Oil City, La., in 1911.
From there, the industry pushed gradually outward, from the Louisiana bayous in the 1920s into the Gulf of Mexico, where Kerr McGee drilled the first well out of sight of land in 1947.
The push into deeper water has come in the past decade.
"What has enabled us to do that is technology," says David Rainey, BP's head of exploration for the Gulf of Mexico. "We have been pushing the limits of seismic-imaging technology and drilling technology."
Perhaps a bigger reason for the recent emphasis on deepwater exploration is that companies had few other places to go. In the early decades of oil exploration, Western companies were the only ones with the technology to manage big oil projects. But as technology spread and state-run oil companies became more sophisticated, foreign governments have relied less on outside help and have demanded greater control of their own oil resources.
With a few exceptions, state-run companies have largely stayed out of the deep water, with its enormous technical challenges and multibillion-dollar investment requirements. Western companies have steadily pushed farther offshore, not just in the Gulf of Mexico but in places like Nigeria, Malaysia, Norway and Australia.
At the same time, traditional oil fields have begun to dry up. In Mexico, the world's seventh-largest oil producer, daily production has dropped 23% since 2004 as output from its giant Cantarell field fell sharply. Other countries have seen their own, mostly smaller, declines.
Falling output from old fields has stoked fears that world-wide production could be nearing its peak. Global oil reserves -- a measure of oil that has been found but not yet produced -- fell in 2008 for the first time in a decade, according to BP's annual statistical review. Moreover, there are signs demand could soon catch up to supply. Global oil consumption has risen by 5.4 million barrels a day in the past five years, while production has risen by just 4.8 million barrels a day.
Such fears helped drive a rapid run-up in oil prices to nearly $150 a barrel in July 2008. The global recession cooled demand, driving down prices, although many experts expect prices to rise again when the economy recovers. Already, prices have rebounded to about $80 a barrel, from under $35 in December 2008.
Rising prices have spurred offshore exploration. By 2008, about 8% of global oil production came from deepwater fields.
Yet even the biggest deepwater projects aren't enough to put a dent in global supply problems on their own. The world's largest deepwater platform, BP's Thunder Horse in the Gulf of Mexico, produces 250,000 barrels of oil a day, just 0.3% of global consumption.
"These discoveries are changing the debate," says Ed Morse, chief economist for LCM Commodities, a brokerage firm. What remains unclear, he says, is whether the deepwater projects will ensure that new discoveries continue to meet demand.
Many in the industry argue the new fields have expanded the limits of where the industry can find oil, potentially delaying a decline in global production.
"There are vast unexplored areas in deep water, so tremendous opportunities for growth," says Steven Newman, president of Transocean Ltd., which owns the Clear Leader rig.
The push into deeper water hasn't always been smooth sailing. Offshore projects are expensive, time-consuming and prone to failure. Chevron boasts of a 45% exploration overall success rate in recent years, a remarkable run by industry standards, but one that also means the company has spent billions on projects that haven't panned out.
Chevron's successes have outweighed its failures. It was expected to be the fastest-growing big oil company in 2009, as measured by oil production, in large part because of new offshore projects in the Gulf of Mexico and off Brazil. Other companies that have embraced offshore exploration, such as BP, are also seeing big growth, while those that haven't are scrambling.
Exxon, which hasn't emphasized deepwater exploration as much as competitors, recently offered $4 billion for a stake in an oil field off the coast of Ghana.
Chevron made its big offshore bet in the 1990s, when it began buying up leases in the Gulf of Mexico that were in such deep water, the technology didn't yet exist to drill there. Confident that technology would catch up, the company in 1996 bid in and won a U.S. government auction for the right to explore for oil in several areas of the gulf, in hopes that a fraction would turn into producing fields.
Chevron then spent six years analyzing its new holdings, figuring out which were most likely to hold oil. The key tool in its arsenal: seismic imaging, a sonar-like process in which sound waves are shot into the rock, and their echoes are picked up by sensors on the surface.
Adding to the challenge: The oil that Chevron was pursuing lay beneath a thick layer of salt, which disrupts seismic sound waves and blurs the images like a smudge on a camera lens. The company had to analyze the data with supercomputers to clear up that distortion.
The analysis revealed a potentially huge oil reservoir. Even so, Chevron estimated it had only a one-in-eight chance of finding commercial quantities of oil. The only way to know for sure was to drill.
So, in 2002, Chevron spent about $100 million to sink its first well in the field, which came to be known as Tahiti. That well needed to hit a 200-foot-long target from five miles away -- akin to hitting a dart board from a city block away.
"You have to roll the dice, and the dice roll now is north of $100 million," says Gary Luquette, president of Chevron's North American exploration and production division.
Chevron's first Tahiti well struck enough oil to make it worth more drilling to see how big the field might be. By 2005, the company had learned enough to go forward with the project. That required building a 700-foot-tall, 45,000-ton floating oil-production platform, and drilling a half dozen wells to feed oil to it. Tahiti produced its first commercial quantities of oil in May.
On a recent morning, the Clear Leader rolled on the waves 190 miles south of New Orleans, held almost perfectly in place by its satellite-controlled navigation system and six Korean-made engines.
In a cabin on the ship's deck, a team of drillers in coveralls monitored computer terminals as they used joysticks to control a drill bit more than 12,800 feet below. The oil they were targeting lay another 14,000 feet underground -- an easy reach for a ship that can drill down 7.5 miles.
The well is part of a second phase of the Tahiti project, which will require drilling several more wells and expanding the floating platform -- an additional $2 billion in spending, still with no guarantee of success.
Kevin Ricketts, a Chevron engineer who worked on both phases of the Tahiti project, recalled looking up at the massive platform while it was still on shore, and reflecting on how his team's analysis had led to its construction.
"I'd never seen anything that big," Mr. Ricketts said. "I thought, holy moly, our production forecast led to that thing being built. I sure hope we're right."
Commnets:
Which are the Indian Drilling Co which rents Oil Drilling Rig for Deep water .....
Aban Llyod seems to me a big bet still.....
by Ben Casselman and Guy Chazan
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
provided by The WallStreet Journal.
Chevron
Chevron is leasing the Clear Leader, which floats in 4,300 feet of water in the Gulf of Mexico, to drill for oil through nearly five miles of rock.
Big Oil never wanted to be here, in 4,300 feet of water far out in the Gulf of Mexico, drilling through nearly five miles of rock.
It is an expensive way to look for oil. Chevron Corp. is paying nearly $500,000 a day to the owner of the Clear Leader, one of the world's newest and most powerful drilling rigs. The new well off the coast of Louisiana will connect to a huge platform floating nearby, which cost Chevron $650 million to build. The first phase of this oil-exploration project took more than 10 years and cost $2.7 billion -- with no guarantee it would pay off.
More from WSJ.com:
Drill, Baby, Drill: Does Virginia's Gov-Elect's Call for Offshore Drilling Add Up?
Apple to Ship Tablet Device in March
World's Tallest Skyscraper Opens in Dubai
Chevron came here, an hour-long helicopter ride south of New Orleans, because so many of the places it would rather be -- big, easily tapped oil fields close to shore -- have become off-limits. Western oil companies have been kicked out of much of the Middle East in recent decades, had assets seized in Venezuela and seen much of the U.S. roped off because of environmental regulations. Their access in Iran is limited by sanctions, in Russia by curbs on foreign investment, in Iraq by violence.
So, Chevron and other major oil companies are moving ever farther from shore in search of oil. That quest is paying off as these companies discover unexpectedly large quantities of oil -- oil that only they have the technology and financial muscle to find and produce.
In May, the first wells from Chevron's latest Gulf of Mexico project came online. The wells are now pumping 125,000 barrels of oil a day, making the project one of the gulf's biggest producers. In September, BP PLC announced what could be the biggest discovery in the gulf in years: a field that could hold three billion barrels.
Beyond the Gulf of Mexico, companies have announced big finds off the coasts of Brazil and Ghana, leading some experts to suggest the existence of a massive oil reservoir stretching across the Atlantic from Africa to South America. Production from deepwater projects -- those in water at least 1,000 feet deep -- grew by 67%, or by about 2.3 million barrels a day, between 2005 and 2008, according to PFC Energy, a Washington consulting firm.
The discoveries come as many of the giant oil fields of the past century are beginning to dry up, and as some experts are warning that global oil production could soon reach a peak and begin to decline. The new deepwater fields represent a huge and largely untapped source of oil, which could help ease fears that the world won't be able to meet demand for energy, which is expected to grow rapidly in coming years.
For oil companies, the discoveries mean something more: After a decade of retreat, large Western energy companies are taking back the lead in the quest to find oil. "A lot of people can get the very easy oil," says George Kirkland, Chevron's vice chairman. "There's just not a lot of it left."
There are challengers to Big Oil's deepwater dominance. Brazil recently has moved to give a larger share of its offshore oil to its state-run oil company, Petrobras. A handful of smaller companies, such as Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Tullow Oil PLC, have had success offshore, particularly in Ghana, where giants like BP and Exxon Mobil Corp. are now playing catch-up.
The enormous investments of time and money required for such projects have made many experts skeptical that they can ease the long-term pressure on global oil supplies. The scale of the projects means that few smaller companies have the resources to take them on. Devon Energy Corp., an independent producer based in Oklahoma City, recently announced plans to abandon its deepwater-exploration business to focus on less-expensive onshore projects, which is says will produce a better return.
"This is technology capable of going to the moon," says Robin West, chairman of consulting firm PFC Energy, involving "extraordinary uncertainty, immense levels of information processing, staggering amounts of capital."
Offshore drilling is almost as old as the oil industry itself. In the 1890s, companies began prospecting for oil from piers extending off the beach near Santa Barbara, Calif. Gulf Oil drilled the world's first fully offshore well from cedar pilings on a shallow lake near Oil City, La., in 1911.
From there, the industry pushed gradually outward, from the Louisiana bayous in the 1920s into the Gulf of Mexico, where Kerr McGee drilled the first well out of sight of land in 1947.
The push into deeper water has come in the past decade.
"What has enabled us to do that is technology," says David Rainey, BP's head of exploration for the Gulf of Mexico. "We have been pushing the limits of seismic-imaging technology and drilling technology."
Perhaps a bigger reason for the recent emphasis on deepwater exploration is that companies had few other places to go. In the early decades of oil exploration, Western companies were the only ones with the technology to manage big oil projects. But as technology spread and state-run oil companies became more sophisticated, foreign governments have relied less on outside help and have demanded greater control of their own oil resources.
With a few exceptions, state-run companies have largely stayed out of the deep water, with its enormous technical challenges and multibillion-dollar investment requirements. Western companies have steadily pushed farther offshore, not just in the Gulf of Mexico but in places like Nigeria, Malaysia, Norway and Australia.
At the same time, traditional oil fields have begun to dry up. In Mexico, the world's seventh-largest oil producer, daily production has dropped 23% since 2004 as output from its giant Cantarell field fell sharply. Other countries have seen their own, mostly smaller, declines.
Falling output from old fields has stoked fears that world-wide production could be nearing its peak. Global oil reserves -- a measure of oil that has been found but not yet produced -- fell in 2008 for the first time in a decade, according to BP's annual statistical review. Moreover, there are signs demand could soon catch up to supply. Global oil consumption has risen by 5.4 million barrels a day in the past five years, while production has risen by just 4.8 million barrels a day.
Such fears helped drive a rapid run-up in oil prices to nearly $150 a barrel in July 2008. The global recession cooled demand, driving down prices, although many experts expect prices to rise again when the economy recovers. Already, prices have rebounded to about $80 a barrel, from under $35 in December 2008.
Rising prices have spurred offshore exploration. By 2008, about 8% of global oil production came from deepwater fields.
Yet even the biggest deepwater projects aren't enough to put a dent in global supply problems on their own. The world's largest deepwater platform, BP's Thunder Horse in the Gulf of Mexico, produces 250,000 barrels of oil a day, just 0.3% of global consumption.
"These discoveries are changing the debate," says Ed Morse, chief economist for LCM Commodities, a brokerage firm. What remains unclear, he says, is whether the deepwater projects will ensure that new discoveries continue to meet demand.
Many in the industry argue the new fields have expanded the limits of where the industry can find oil, potentially delaying a decline in global production.
"There are vast unexplored areas in deep water, so tremendous opportunities for growth," says Steven Newman, president of Transocean Ltd., which owns the Clear Leader rig.
The push into deeper water hasn't always been smooth sailing. Offshore projects are expensive, time-consuming and prone to failure. Chevron boasts of a 45% exploration overall success rate in recent years, a remarkable run by industry standards, but one that also means the company has spent billions on projects that haven't panned out.
Chevron's successes have outweighed its failures. It was expected to be the fastest-growing big oil company in 2009, as measured by oil production, in large part because of new offshore projects in the Gulf of Mexico and off Brazil. Other companies that have embraced offshore exploration, such as BP, are also seeing big growth, while those that haven't are scrambling.
Exxon, which hasn't emphasized deepwater exploration as much as competitors, recently offered $4 billion for a stake in an oil field off the coast of Ghana.
Chevron made its big offshore bet in the 1990s, when it began buying up leases in the Gulf of Mexico that were in such deep water, the technology didn't yet exist to drill there. Confident that technology would catch up, the company in 1996 bid in and won a U.S. government auction for the right to explore for oil in several areas of the gulf, in hopes that a fraction would turn into producing fields.
Chevron then spent six years analyzing its new holdings, figuring out which were most likely to hold oil. The key tool in its arsenal: seismic imaging, a sonar-like process in which sound waves are shot into the rock, and their echoes are picked up by sensors on the surface.
Adding to the challenge: The oil that Chevron was pursuing lay beneath a thick layer of salt, which disrupts seismic sound waves and blurs the images like a smudge on a camera lens. The company had to analyze the data with supercomputers to clear up that distortion.
The analysis revealed a potentially huge oil reservoir. Even so, Chevron estimated it had only a one-in-eight chance of finding commercial quantities of oil. The only way to know for sure was to drill.
So, in 2002, Chevron spent about $100 million to sink its first well in the field, which came to be known as Tahiti. That well needed to hit a 200-foot-long target from five miles away -- akin to hitting a dart board from a city block away.
"You have to roll the dice, and the dice roll now is north of $100 million," says Gary Luquette, president of Chevron's North American exploration and production division.
Chevron's first Tahiti well struck enough oil to make it worth more drilling to see how big the field might be. By 2005, the company had learned enough to go forward with the project. That required building a 700-foot-tall, 45,000-ton floating oil-production platform, and drilling a half dozen wells to feed oil to it. Tahiti produced its first commercial quantities of oil in May.
On a recent morning, the Clear Leader rolled on the waves 190 miles south of New Orleans, held almost perfectly in place by its satellite-controlled navigation system and six Korean-made engines.
In a cabin on the ship's deck, a team of drillers in coveralls monitored computer terminals as they used joysticks to control a drill bit more than 12,800 feet below. The oil they were targeting lay another 14,000 feet underground -- an easy reach for a ship that can drill down 7.5 miles.
The well is part of a second phase of the Tahiti project, which will require drilling several more wells and expanding the floating platform -- an additional $2 billion in spending, still with no guarantee of success.
Kevin Ricketts, a Chevron engineer who worked on both phases of the Tahiti project, recalled looking up at the massive platform while it was still on shore, and reflecting on how his team's analysis had led to its construction.
"I'd never seen anything that big," Mr. Ricketts said. "I thought, holy moly, our production forecast led to that thing being built. I sure hope we're right."
Commnets:
Which are the Indian Drilling Co which rents Oil Drilling Rig for Deep water .....
Aban Llyod seems to me a big bet still.....
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Rico Auto,SNL ...Lumax Ind....
Friends,
I am seeing Rico Auto is making new highs at 32.40 up from my recomended price of 25.60.There were lots of apprehension whether my call was good enough to be here.In one and a half month it is giving 26% return.
Lumax Ind has again started giving upper circuits.SNL is in constant UC .....and has more then doubled.
Well, the main reason writing here today this post is ,I just read on moneycontrol website which says that Experts sees market at new high by Mar 2010......now how that come?Why suddenly they become bullish.......misguiding or what?Why didn't they said in Dec?Within 10 days what happened that they changed the outlook?
Well, another thing I would like to mention here .....with the new look of my blog...while adding some more SEARCH ENGINES......now one can... WRITE ANY COMPANY NAME IN THE BOX AT TOP THE EXTREME RIGHT OF MY BLOG" Search This Blog" and one would find if I have written anything on that stock.....
This is a great advantage for my readers as this makes the things much easier to back track me for any stock......
I hope my readers will be pleased to see such thing ......
Monday, January 4, 2010
Emerging markets may hit fresh highs ..........
Emerging markets may hit fresh highs
Taken from Todays's ET
TALKING STOCKS, GROWTH & INVESTMENT BETS WITH MARKETS GURU MARK MOBIUS
HE BELIEVES that emerging market valuations are currently around the mid-way mark of their historical 10-year range, and there are enough opportunities in terms of good and solid companies that can survive a downturn. Widely regarded as an emerging markets guru, Mark Mobius, executive chairman, Templeton Asset Management, ranks China and Brazil among his favourite markets, and also has sizeable exposure to Russia, India and Turkey. In an interview with Deeptha Rajkumar, he talks of how frontier markets are the next emerging markets. He says that global interdependency is growing, not shrinking.
Where do you see global equity markets headed in 2010? Which are the ones that you are betting on to outperform the rest?
We think emerging market equities seem likely to hit new highs as we go forward. Emerging economies are forecast to grow approximately four times faster than developed economies — a big difference — which should be reflected in their stock markets. But valuations in emerging markets are still lower than those of Europe and the US because the majority of investors still tend to discount emerging markets, regarding them as too risky. However, this is now changing, as governments around the world, from the US and Europe to China, have substantially increased the level of money supply to prevent deflation. With bank deposit rates, especially in the West, hovering near 1% or lower, most investors are looking for a better return on their investment and are, hence, putting their money to work in the capital markets, fueling a rise in equity prices.
We are finding opportunities in almost all emerging markets. Our ground-up research process locates opportunities in countries where the political or economic outlooks may not, at first appearance, look good. Nevertheless, we generally favour China and Brazil, but also have large positions in Russia, India and Turkey.
What about valuations? Do you think emerging mkts still have room to rise?
Even though valuations are no longer as cheap as they were at the end of 2008, we believe current valuations are around the middle of their historical 10-year range. We continue to find opportunities, and our objective is to find good, solid companies that can survive even in a downturn. Valuations in select markets such as Russia are below the average in emerging markets and as such are particularly appealing, in our view.
India/China have clearly benefited from sustained capital flows in 2009 with the former witnessing inflows of over $17 billion. Would you say this is a sign that emerging markets have finally decoupled from the developed western markets?
Emerging markets will always be coupled with developed western markets and vice versa, since trade and money flows are so much connected globally. However, that does not mean that a decline in western markets will mean a decline in emerging markets. We must look at each on a case-by-case basis. Global interdependency is growing, not shrinking. We must be ready, therefore, to grasp all the opportunities when there is an impact on that interdependency.
What are the sectors you expect to shine in 2010, globally and specific to India?
In terms of sectors, we believe commodity stocks look good because we expect the global demand for commodities to continue its long-term growth. We also favour consumer stocks. With rising per-capita income and strong demand for consumer goods and services in many emerging markets, we believe that the earnings growth outlook for these stocks is positive. Within Indian sectors specifically, we’re seeing opportunities in materials, financials and information technology.
You have been advocating investments in frontier markets. What are the pulls?
Frontier markets are the next emerging markets and include the likes of Kazakhstan, Romania, Nigeria and Vietnam. The key characteristics are the fact that they are overlooked by investors and have offered fewer investment opportunities. Frontier markets, generally, have companies that are oriented towards their respective domestic economies rather than the global economy, so we believe that they have less correlation to emerging markets in general. Most investors have refrained from investing in frontier markets because of the perceived risks. However, I do not believe that the level of risk is necessarily higher as compared to emerging markets. Frontier markets generally share the same political and economic issues as emerging markets, but their valuations may be more attractive as a result of this perception. At the end of the day, it all boils down to picking the right company or stock.
Will commodities outperform equities in 2010? What are the dangers right now in your opinion?
We expect commodity prices to continue to trend upwards, partly because of weakness in the US dollar, and also because we expect the global demand for commodities to outgrow supply over the long term. However, speculation in derivatives markets is likely to exacerbate volatility in the sector, and we recognise that the upward trend in commodities is unlikely to be smooth.
Post the Dubai crisis, which are the other landmines that investors will have to watch out for?
The negative news impacted markets globally, particularly in Asia and Europe, because a number of banks are exposed to Dubai debt and several international construction companies have had large contracts in Dubai. Most markets rebounded quite quickly after it was ascertained that damage to companies outside of the Gulf region would be very limited. As we have said in the past, in any bull market we expect that there will be corrections along the way. In our view, these corrections can be quite healthy, because to us it means that valuations will become more reasonable, presenting buying opportunities. This kind of volatility in emerging markets is what we expect and why it is so important to have a long-term investment horizon. We view these opportunities as a time to continue holding quality investments and to increase our holdings in selected stocks that we believe, over a five-year time frame, will continue to show stable financing.
How do you see interest rate changes in the US impacting the rest in 2010?
If there is a rise in interest rates without a concomitant rise in inflation so that real interest rates become highly positive, then the impact on stock markets around the world could be significant. Nominal interest rates alone would not have an impact except for a temporary psychological one. The key factor is the interplay between interest rates and inflation. High inflation would be good for equity markets provided that those high inflation rates are not accompanied by as high interest rates.
Taken from Todays's ET
TALKING STOCKS, GROWTH & INVESTMENT BETS WITH MARKETS GURU MARK MOBIUS
HE BELIEVES that emerging market valuations are currently around the mid-way mark of their historical 10-year range, and there are enough opportunities in terms of good and solid companies that can survive a downturn. Widely regarded as an emerging markets guru, Mark Mobius, executive chairman, Templeton Asset Management, ranks China and Brazil among his favourite markets, and also has sizeable exposure to Russia, India and Turkey. In an interview with Deeptha Rajkumar, he talks of how frontier markets are the next emerging markets. He says that global interdependency is growing, not shrinking.
Where do you see global equity markets headed in 2010? Which are the ones that you are betting on to outperform the rest?
We think emerging market equities seem likely to hit new highs as we go forward. Emerging economies are forecast to grow approximately four times faster than developed economies — a big difference — which should be reflected in their stock markets. But valuations in emerging markets are still lower than those of Europe and the US because the majority of investors still tend to discount emerging markets, regarding them as too risky. However, this is now changing, as governments around the world, from the US and Europe to China, have substantially increased the level of money supply to prevent deflation. With bank deposit rates, especially in the West, hovering near 1% or lower, most investors are looking for a better return on their investment and are, hence, putting their money to work in the capital markets, fueling a rise in equity prices.
We are finding opportunities in almost all emerging markets. Our ground-up research process locates opportunities in countries where the political or economic outlooks may not, at first appearance, look good. Nevertheless, we generally favour China and Brazil, but also have large positions in Russia, India and Turkey.
What about valuations? Do you think emerging mkts still have room to rise?
Even though valuations are no longer as cheap as they were at the end of 2008, we believe current valuations are around the middle of their historical 10-year range. We continue to find opportunities, and our objective is to find good, solid companies that can survive even in a downturn. Valuations in select markets such as Russia are below the average in emerging markets and as such are particularly appealing, in our view.
India/China have clearly benefited from sustained capital flows in 2009 with the former witnessing inflows of over $17 billion. Would you say this is a sign that emerging markets have finally decoupled from the developed western markets?
Emerging markets will always be coupled with developed western markets and vice versa, since trade and money flows are so much connected globally. However, that does not mean that a decline in western markets will mean a decline in emerging markets. We must look at each on a case-by-case basis. Global interdependency is growing, not shrinking. We must be ready, therefore, to grasp all the opportunities when there is an impact on that interdependency.
What are the sectors you expect to shine in 2010, globally and specific to India?
In terms of sectors, we believe commodity stocks look good because we expect the global demand for commodities to continue its long-term growth. We also favour consumer stocks. With rising per-capita income and strong demand for consumer goods and services in many emerging markets, we believe that the earnings growth outlook for these stocks is positive. Within Indian sectors specifically, we’re seeing opportunities in materials, financials and information technology.
You have been advocating investments in frontier markets. What are the pulls?
Frontier markets are the next emerging markets and include the likes of Kazakhstan, Romania, Nigeria and Vietnam. The key characteristics are the fact that they are overlooked by investors and have offered fewer investment opportunities. Frontier markets, generally, have companies that are oriented towards their respective domestic economies rather than the global economy, so we believe that they have less correlation to emerging markets in general. Most investors have refrained from investing in frontier markets because of the perceived risks. However, I do not believe that the level of risk is necessarily higher as compared to emerging markets. Frontier markets generally share the same political and economic issues as emerging markets, but their valuations may be more attractive as a result of this perception. At the end of the day, it all boils down to picking the right company or stock.
Will commodities outperform equities in 2010? What are the dangers right now in your opinion?
We expect commodity prices to continue to trend upwards, partly because of weakness in the US dollar, and also because we expect the global demand for commodities to outgrow supply over the long term. However, speculation in derivatives markets is likely to exacerbate volatility in the sector, and we recognise that the upward trend in commodities is unlikely to be smooth.
Post the Dubai crisis, which are the other landmines that investors will have to watch out for?
The negative news impacted markets globally, particularly in Asia and Europe, because a number of banks are exposed to Dubai debt and several international construction companies have had large contracts in Dubai. Most markets rebounded quite quickly after it was ascertained that damage to companies outside of the Gulf region would be very limited. As we have said in the past, in any bull market we expect that there will be corrections along the way. In our view, these corrections can be quite healthy, because to us it means that valuations will become more reasonable, presenting buying opportunities. This kind of volatility in emerging markets is what we expect and why it is so important to have a long-term investment horizon. We view these opportunities as a time to continue holding quality investments and to increase our holdings in selected stocks that we believe, over a five-year time frame, will continue to show stable financing.
How do you see interest rate changes in the US impacting the rest in 2010?
If there is a rise in interest rates without a concomitant rise in inflation so that real interest rates become highly positive, then the impact on stock markets around the world could be significant. Nominal interest rates alone would not have an impact except for a temporary psychological one. The key factor is the interplay between interest rates and inflation. High inflation would be good for equity markets provided that those high inflation rates are not accompanied by as high interest rates.
Small Update......Excel Crop Ltd and Parekh Alum
Excel Crop Ltd and Parekh Alum has started moving up.Both are now at 155 and 149 respectively.....just try to find stocks which I recomended in last one year and which were not moving uptill now......some movement should have started coming in.....
Sunday, January 3, 2010
From Monday........
Market will open from 9 am instead of 10 am.
It has always been difficult to predict the range of market and course of market.Buffet invest for 20-50 yrs.RJ invest for 3-5 yrs.
FII's brought in 80,000 cr means almost $17 billion this year which is far greater then they sold in 2008 which was $ 11bn.That is almost over by 60% this year.Means whatever they sold they bought it back and invested more and still market has not made a new high.The reason is the retail participation is still not there otherwise market should have crossed 21k by now.
That is what I use to write here and that is, we are not in a state of euphoria.
Market was up by 80% and that is the biggest gain in last 18 yrs of Indian stock market.Now from here to where?
I have written many times here that we may touch 19k this year, means 2009 and may even touch 21k....but that didn't happen.But overall market remained steady in last 2 months defying all apprehension showed by analyst.
This year, in 2010 , market will definately cross the 21k all time high and will go beyond that proving all analyst wrong.I remember I also wrote that we can touch even 31k by end 2010.
Let us see what happens now in 2010.But we can see 14700 on lower scale and 27000 to 29,000 on higher scale in this year itself and as I wrote we should and will never see 12k again this year and following years. This range is hypothetical.14700 is in worst case scenario and we may even not see 14700 at all...
Market will give knee jerks and will shatter your confidence this year as well.The scenario will become such that now market is gone but those who will buy at that time will come out winner.Take a Vow that we will never play in F&O.Leave it for big players.....
2008 is gone and we are not going to see it again.
If export has started picking up, shows that world economy is coming back on track.I just read in BS that China's Industrial production has again started booming and their economy will grow again at 9% and that will be very good sign.I have seen analyst becoming sceptic on Chinese economy and giving calls that China is a bubble.They give the reason that every economy running at this scorching pace can't sustain that long but China is proving them wrong time and again.Now after 5-10 yrs or 15 yrs if Chinese economy becomes bubble and burst , will that make sense?Why to worry about 5-10-15 yrs down the line.....that is something very wishful thinking. Iwill never be able to understand analyst mind or peoples mind that they start talking of Bubble just went a past bubble has burst in near past.....We have seen 2008 a bubble bursting of Subprime Mortagage...we are not even a year over it if we take Mar 09 low then how analyst and so called experts start talking of another bubble?But those who wants to talk negative and see negative...we can't do anything to them....We have seen in recent past the Dubai fisaco.World market tanked and so did our but within a week the world market and our market were back to normal.....that is the resilience we are seeing in now in world economy.This every analyst needs to understand that ....before speaking for market....
I also believe that China is not a bubble and their economy will continue to prosper and that will help world economy as well.
Coming back to India, as I have written many times here,that lots of thing still to be done that there is no way, we can underperform.Money will keep on pouring in from overseas and then the retail participation has still not come.Even the local savings money has not started coming in market.These will lead to higher sensex.
I have no doubt about it.
The real crux here is one needs to be able to look at market and should be able to judge how market will be.If one is sceptic then even though he has multibagger in hand he will sold it out cheaply and that is not a good scenario in market.One need to try and get the maximum return from the stock where one holds so that it can make up of stock giving negative returns and laggards in portfolio.
Merely finding a multibagger is not enough.One should be able to hold on to that stock and that is only possible if one is able to read the market.I still stick to my view that holding stocks is the best way to maximise the profit.Selling at 10-20% profit and changing stocks makes no sense.
It has always been difficult to predict the range of market and course of market.Buffet invest for 20-50 yrs.RJ invest for 3-5 yrs.
FII's brought in 80,000 cr means almost $17 billion this year which is far greater then they sold in 2008 which was $ 11bn.That is almost over by 60% this year.Means whatever they sold they bought it back and invested more and still market has not made a new high.The reason is the retail participation is still not there otherwise market should have crossed 21k by now.
That is what I use to write here and that is, we are not in a state of euphoria.
Market was up by 80% and that is the biggest gain in last 18 yrs of Indian stock market.Now from here to where?
I have written many times here that we may touch 19k this year, means 2009 and may even touch 21k....but that didn't happen.But overall market remained steady in last 2 months defying all apprehension showed by analyst.
This year, in 2010 , market will definately cross the 21k all time high and will go beyond that proving all analyst wrong.I remember I also wrote that we can touch even 31k by end 2010.
Let us see what happens now in 2010.But we can see 14700 on lower scale and 27000 to 29,000 on higher scale in this year itself and as I wrote we should and will never see 12k again this year and following years. This range is hypothetical.14700 is in worst case scenario and we may even not see 14700 at all...
Market will give knee jerks and will shatter your confidence this year as well.The scenario will become such that now market is gone but those who will buy at that time will come out winner.Take a Vow that we will never play in F&O.Leave it for big players.....
2008 is gone and we are not going to see it again.
If export has started picking up, shows that world economy is coming back on track.I just read in BS that China's Industrial production has again started booming and their economy will grow again at 9% and that will be very good sign.I have seen analyst becoming sceptic on Chinese economy and giving calls that China is a bubble.They give the reason that every economy running at this scorching pace can't sustain that long but China is proving them wrong time and again.Now after 5-10 yrs or 15 yrs if Chinese economy becomes bubble and burst , will that make sense?Why to worry about 5-10-15 yrs down the line.....that is something very wishful thinking. Iwill never be able to understand analyst mind or peoples mind that they start talking of Bubble just went a past bubble has burst in near past.....We have seen 2008 a bubble bursting of Subprime Mortagage...we are not even a year over it if we take Mar 09 low then how analyst and so called experts start talking of another bubble?But those who wants to talk negative and see negative...we can't do anything to them....We have seen in recent past the Dubai fisaco.World market tanked and so did our but within a week the world market and our market were back to normal.....that is the resilience we are seeing in now in world economy.This every analyst needs to understand that ....before speaking for market....
I also believe that China is not a bubble and their economy will continue to prosper and that will help world economy as well.
Coming back to India, as I have written many times here,that lots of thing still to be done that there is no way, we can underperform.Money will keep on pouring in from overseas and then the retail participation has still not come.Even the local savings money has not started coming in market.These will lead to higher sensex.
I have no doubt about it.
The real crux here is one needs to be able to look at market and should be able to judge how market will be.If one is sceptic then even though he has multibagger in hand he will sold it out cheaply and that is not a good scenario in market.One need to try and get the maximum return from the stock where one holds so that it can make up of stock giving negative returns and laggards in portfolio.
Merely finding a multibagger is not enough.One should be able to hold on to that stock and that is only possible if one is able to read the market.I still stick to my view that holding stocks is the best way to maximise the profit.Selling at 10-20% profit and changing stocks makes no sense.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on how to pick the right stock .....
Freinds,
This maybe a repeat post, but seems that this is a very specific post....
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on how to pick the right stock
Published on Tue, Nov 17, 2009 at 15:25 Updated at Mon, Nov 23, 2009 at 11:35 Source : CNBC-TV18
If you’re a proponent of value investing, which involves buying stocks that offer value when they’re cheap and holding on to them till they achieve their potential — Warren Buffet style — here are tips from India’s own Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, that you may use.
— Jhunjhunwala’s advice to investors is not to look for companies that would give profits but understand factors that help in creating profits. “Don’t emphasise too much on analysis of profits,” he says. “Profits are created due to various stages of circumstances. I always look at how large is the opportunity for that business in the sector.” ( I think, I are doing the same here.....I have never talked of what the NP is, I have always talked of what a Co can become.....Least to say, I am not comparing myself with RJ, but can say I am on the right path after reading this...)
He recalls how he bought Praj Industries, a bio-ethanol company that gave him large returns. “When I bought Praj, we thought there would be a humongous demand for ethanol. The opportunity was huge but it was not recognized.”
IT bellwether Infosys, he said, benefited because of the internet revolution. “Nobody knew about Infosys in 1993 but Infosys could become Infosys because the opportunity for the internet went through the roof.”
“When opportunities come, they can come through technology, marketing, brands, value protections, capital, etc. You need to be able to spot those.”
— “Then I look at scalability of a particular company that I choose in a sector,” Jhunjhunwala says. “A friend of mine asked me: should I invest in a small cap or largecap? I said we must invest in the smallcaps, which will be the largecaps. The biggest challenge of investing is that you should recognise whether organization has the ability to scale.”
Jhunjhunwala says he makes an investing decision by understanding how a company’s profits may grow in the next four-five years, and by that account, its price-to-earnings and valuation. “If I succeed in making the right call, then after four-five years, I do a proper re-examination of the business model and accordingly reallocate capital because the business model can undergo change. Intense competition could emerge in that sector,” he says. “This is when I examine the earlier opinion I had made when I first bought, whether those assumptions still were valid.”
— How should you spot a good company? “You can have an idea by looking at companies’ capital raising. Are they distributing profits, are they using the surpluses in the right manner,” he says. “For me, quarters don’t matter. There can be always be an aberration in one quarter when the company has less profits. You should examine the reason for it and whether it can revert back on its growth.”
— Choices of asset classes is important too, says Jhunjhunwala. “If you bought gold in 1970 and sold it in 1980. you bought the Nikkei Index in 1980 and sold it in 1989 and then bought the Nasdaq [till before the dotcom bust], you would have made 33% compounded returns in three decades,” he says. “Warren Buffet rode the entire wave of those different asset classes.”
— “Value investing is relevant in all circumstances. But thought processes and principles are dynamic and not static. Be open to change,” he says.
— Don’t get carried away short term market trends, he says. “In 1999, people used to buy Himachal Futuristic, Global Tele, Pentasoft, I used to buy Shipping Corporation and Bharat Electronics because I saw long-term value,” he adds. “Never get carried away by aberrations, recognize and respect them but do remember that the market corrects its aberration though it takes time.”
This maybe a repeat post, but seems that this is a very specific post....
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on how to pick the right stock
Published on Tue, Nov 17, 2009 at 15:25 Updated at Mon, Nov 23, 2009 at 11:35 Source : CNBC-TV18
If you’re a proponent of value investing, which involves buying stocks that offer value when they’re cheap and holding on to them till they achieve their potential — Warren Buffet style — here are tips from India’s own Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, that you may use.
— Jhunjhunwala’s advice to investors is not to look for companies that would give profits but understand factors that help in creating profits. “Don’t emphasise too much on analysis of profits,” he says. “Profits are created due to various stages of circumstances. I always look at how large is the opportunity for that business in the sector.” ( I think, I are doing the same here.....I have never talked of what the NP is, I have always talked of what a Co can become.....Least to say, I am not comparing myself with RJ, but can say I am on the right path after reading this...)
He recalls how he bought Praj Industries, a bio-ethanol company that gave him large returns. “When I bought Praj, we thought there would be a humongous demand for ethanol. The opportunity was huge but it was not recognized.”
IT bellwether Infosys, he said, benefited because of the internet revolution. “Nobody knew about Infosys in 1993 but Infosys could become Infosys because the opportunity for the internet went through the roof.”
“When opportunities come, they can come through technology, marketing, brands, value protections, capital, etc. You need to be able to spot those.”
— “Then I look at scalability of a particular company that I choose in a sector,” Jhunjhunwala says. “A friend of mine asked me: should I invest in a small cap or largecap? I said we must invest in the smallcaps, which will be the largecaps. The biggest challenge of investing is that you should recognise whether organization has the ability to scale.”
Jhunjhunwala says he makes an investing decision by understanding how a company’s profits may grow in the next four-five years, and by that account, its price-to-earnings and valuation. “If I succeed in making the right call, then after four-five years, I do a proper re-examination of the business model and accordingly reallocate capital because the business model can undergo change. Intense competition could emerge in that sector,” he says. “This is when I examine the earlier opinion I had made when I first bought, whether those assumptions still were valid.”
— How should you spot a good company? “You can have an idea by looking at companies’ capital raising. Are they distributing profits, are they using the surpluses in the right manner,” he says. “For me, quarters don’t matter. There can be always be an aberration in one quarter when the company has less profits. You should examine the reason for it and whether it can revert back on its growth.”
— Choices of asset classes is important too, says Jhunjhunwala. “If you bought gold in 1970 and sold it in 1980. you bought the Nikkei Index in 1980 and sold it in 1989 and then bought the Nasdaq [till before the dotcom bust], you would have made 33% compounded returns in three decades,” he says. “Warren Buffet rode the entire wave of those different asset classes.”
— “Value investing is relevant in all circumstances. But thought processes and principles are dynamic and not static. Be open to change,” he says.
— Don’t get carried away short term market trends, he says. “In 1999, people used to buy Himachal Futuristic, Global Tele, Pentasoft, I used to buy Shipping Corporation and Bharat Electronics because I saw long-term value,” he adds. “Never get carried away by aberrations, recognize and respect them but do remember that the market corrects its aberration though it takes time.”
Nov exports grow 18%, turn positive after 13 mths .......
Nov exports grow 18%, turn positive after 13 mths
Fall In Imports Of Goods & Services Slows; Trade Deficit Shrinks To $66 Billion
Our Bureau & Agencies NEW DELHI
INDIA’S exports sector has bounced back with outward trade growing by 18% in November 2009, the commerce ministry said. The export figures turned positive after staying in the red for 13 months.
The value of exports in November 2009 jumped to $13.19 billion compared to $11.16 billion in November 2008. The global economic slowdown hit the country’s exports sector hard in October 2008.
Imports of goods and services, however, remained in negative territory during this period. But the contraction was lower at 2.6%—amounting to $22.8 billion—compared to 15% in the previous month.
The cumulative data for April-November of the current fiscal showed exports dropping by 22.3% to $104.24 billion, much lower than the 26% fall up to October this financial year. Trade deficit for April-November 2009 stood at $66.18 billion, lower than $100.15 billion in the same period in 2008.
As per official data, oil imports also turned positive after 13 months and increased by 7.3% to $6.38 billion in November. Imports during April-November 2009 stood at $50.18 billion, 34.4% lower than $76.52 billion in the year-ago period.
Non-oil imports during November contracted by 5.9% to $16.5 billion from $17.5 billion in the same month of 2008. Non-oil imports were 23.8% lower at $120.2 billion in April-November 2009 compared to $157.8 billion in the corresponding period of 2008.
While exports have turned positive partly due to the low base effect of 2008, experts cautioned against complacency. “Exporters need to keep their competitiveness both in terms of quality and prices, and focus on market and product diversification,” said Indian Institute of Foreign Trade’s RM Joshi.
India’s apex exporters’ body, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), said the November data indicates the adaptability of exporters to the changing global economy and the positive impact of the stimulus extended by the government. FIEO president A Sakthivel hoped that the government would continue with the stimulus package, particularly, interest subsidy for exports.
Despite the positive growth, the country’s overseas shipments in the current fiscal are likely to remain much lower than the $185 billion worth of shipments last year. As per FIEO estimates, exports in 2009-10 are expected to remain in the range of $165-170 billion.
Fall In Imports Of Goods & Services Slows; Trade Deficit Shrinks To $66 Billion
Our Bureau & Agencies NEW DELHI
INDIA’S exports sector has bounced back with outward trade growing by 18% in November 2009, the commerce ministry said. The export figures turned positive after staying in the red for 13 months.
The value of exports in November 2009 jumped to $13.19 billion compared to $11.16 billion in November 2008. The global economic slowdown hit the country’s exports sector hard in October 2008.
Imports of goods and services, however, remained in negative territory during this period. But the contraction was lower at 2.6%—amounting to $22.8 billion—compared to 15% in the previous month.
The cumulative data for April-November of the current fiscal showed exports dropping by 22.3% to $104.24 billion, much lower than the 26% fall up to October this financial year. Trade deficit for April-November 2009 stood at $66.18 billion, lower than $100.15 billion in the same period in 2008.
As per official data, oil imports also turned positive after 13 months and increased by 7.3% to $6.38 billion in November. Imports during April-November 2009 stood at $50.18 billion, 34.4% lower than $76.52 billion in the year-ago period.
Non-oil imports during November contracted by 5.9% to $16.5 billion from $17.5 billion in the same month of 2008. Non-oil imports were 23.8% lower at $120.2 billion in April-November 2009 compared to $157.8 billion in the corresponding period of 2008.
While exports have turned positive partly due to the low base effect of 2008, experts cautioned against complacency. “Exporters need to keep their competitiveness both in terms of quality and prices, and focus on market and product diversification,” said Indian Institute of Foreign Trade’s RM Joshi.
India’s apex exporters’ body, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), said the November data indicates the adaptability of exporters to the changing global economy and the positive impact of the stimulus extended by the government. FIEO president A Sakthivel hoped that the government would continue with the stimulus package, particularly, interest subsidy for exports.
Despite the positive growth, the country’s overseas shipments in the current fiscal are likely to remain much lower than the $185 billion worth of shipments last year. As per FIEO estimates, exports in 2009-10 are expected to remain in the range of $165-170 billion.
My Commnets:
What one will make out from this?Export has increased by 18% after 13 months....just try to think what this tells......stop reading further and think over it.What you will analyse of this...news....
Done! Well, my analysis says that this is a hint of global market stabilising.If the export has increased after 13 months then I can say that world economy has started doing good as orders has started pouring in again after long time......
Now I don't think I have to write what that means for Indian Economy as well as world economy......
I maybe wrong in my analysis...so take your own call.....
Friday, January 1, 2010
Mcnally Bharat....my old call....Expect order book of Rs 5000cr by April
Friends,
People following me since mmb should be knowing that I use to recomend Mcnally Bharat since those days when it was in 50's and even after the meltdown in 2008, I have recomended here many times and that too again around the same price.I just wrote recently that Mcnally Bharat is making new highs......
The CM just gave an interview that Mcnally Bharat is expecting an order book position of 5000 cr by Apr, means in next few months......That is HUGE.....I don't think so , that I have to write what needs to be done in this counter.....There are not many co at this valuation who have such a huge order book ....This again says that sometimes my calls are ahead of 1-2 yrs.The news come afterwards but I can foresee it very clearly......that is why some stocks do not run immidiately but once they start the upward journey there is no looking back....
Expect order book of Rs 5000cr by April: McNally Bharat
Published on Thu, Dec 31, 2009 at 15:21 Updated at Thu, Dec 31, 2009 at 21:28 Source : CNBC-TV18
Leading engineering company McNally Bharat Engineering is going to raise Rs 44 crore via a rights issue in ratio of 1:10 at Rs 140.
Commenting on the same, the company’s Chairman Deepak Khaitan says that the rights issue will help correct its debt-equity structure. He expects an order book of Rs 5,000 crore by April and believes that the acquisition synergies will flow in FY10 and FY11.
“The company’s machinery business margins currently stand at 20% and the engineering-procurement-construction (EPC) business is targetting margins of 10%,” Khaitan says.
Part of Williamson Magor Group, McNally Bharat Engineering has projects in coal washing, port cranes, civic and industrial water supply. It recently demerged its projects and products business.
McNally is going to bring resource consolidation, synergy by way of restructuring. The company has regrouped project business into four strategic units. Its strategic units are material handling and non-ferrous metals, steel, mines and port solutions and power and infrastructure.
People following me since mmb should be knowing that I use to recomend Mcnally Bharat since those days when it was in 50's and even after the meltdown in 2008, I have recomended here many times and that too again around the same price.I just wrote recently that Mcnally Bharat is making new highs......
The CM just gave an interview that Mcnally Bharat is expecting an order book position of 5000 cr by Apr, means in next few months......That is HUGE.....I don't think so , that I have to write what needs to be done in this counter.....There are not many co at this valuation who have such a huge order book ....This again says that sometimes my calls are ahead of 1-2 yrs.The news come afterwards but I can foresee it very clearly......that is why some stocks do not run immidiately but once they start the upward journey there is no looking back....
Expect order book of Rs 5000cr by April: McNally Bharat
Published on Thu, Dec 31, 2009 at 15:21 Updated at Thu, Dec 31, 2009 at 21:28 Source : CNBC-TV18
Leading engineering company McNally Bharat Engineering is going to raise Rs 44 crore via a rights issue in ratio of 1:10 at Rs 140.
Commenting on the same, the company’s Chairman Deepak Khaitan says that the rights issue will help correct its debt-equity structure. He expects an order book of Rs 5,000 crore by April and believes that the acquisition synergies will flow in FY10 and FY11.
“The company’s machinery business margins currently stand at 20% and the engineering-procurement-construction (EPC) business is targetting margins of 10%,” Khaitan says.
Part of Williamson Magor Group, McNally Bharat Engineering has projects in coal washing, port cranes, civic and industrial water supply. It recently demerged its projects and products business.
McNally is going to bring resource consolidation, synergy by way of restructuring. The company has regrouped project business into four strategic units. Its strategic units are material handling and non-ferrous metals, steel, mines and port solutions and power and infrastructure.
Decade of equities: When India took centre-stage.......
Friends,
I have been through an article from Monercontrol site which I am pasting here with my COMMENTS in Bracket......
Decade of equities: When India took centre-stage.......
A decade is a long time. Especially in equity markets. When 1999 ended, the world had just witnessed the burst of a dotcom bubble that, in hind sight, many people reckoned couldn’t have gotten more nonsensical. End of 2009, and we are being thrust out of yet another larger financial bubble which, when it burst last year, threatened to obliterate the very face of capitalism.
It goes to prove the legendary Warren Buffet’s words, who once said, ‘Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.’ How many investors, though, burnt their fingers in the late 90s’ dotcom bubble and the euphoria over realty stocks back here in India between 2005 and 2007 remains to be ascertained.
But the overall story doesn’t change. Over the longer term, India’s benchmark Sensex — what with its forceful, violent corrections along the way — maintains its head up. Start 2000, and the Sensex hovered around the 5,000 mark. End of 2009, it’s above 17,000. Compare that with US stocks, and Wall Street has moved all over the place but remained exactly where it was a decade ago.
Markets often smell things in advance, it is often said. No wonder then that stock markets in China and India — the new superpowers of the east — headed up while their developed counterparts sensed something was going wrong with the world’s superpower, America, as it loaded up on its gargantuan debt by spending more than it earned, fought costly, bloody wars it was not winning, and implemented economic policies that defied both rationality and economics.
2009 resumption of bull market?
Was the correction of 2008 just another — mega, as it may — blip for the Indian market machine, one that bummed it up but which it will shrug and move on? Billionaire investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala believes so. The Indian Warren Buffett, as he is dubbed by the media, has often said the Indian economy, with its large savings, young working age populace and a clean financial system unlike the troublesome one in the west, “is in its teens”.
“I see no reason why — if Indian software exports grow by 10-15%, commodity prices hold at reasonable levels and we have good government policies — India cannot grow at double digits,” he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview in June. The Indian economy grew 7.9% last quarter when the developed nations strategised ways to fight their way out of the recession, which in simpler terms means negative growth. India, Jhunjhunwala said, would continue to attract capital from the world because of its astounding growth.
“The fall from 21,000 to 7,500-8,000 for the index [in 2008] was just a correction in the longer-term bull market in India,” he said. “Actually, the first correction started in September 2001 because the real bottom the market made was post-September 11, 2001, and then the market went up to 3,500 and had a historic correction back in April 2003.”
A staggering four-and-a-half year bull market then saw the Sensex reach all-time highs of 21,000 in January 2008, just when the global financial crisis hit home. “Now, I do not think the Sensex will cross 21,000 in a straight line. We have to correct and we have to make a range and only then we can have the next move.”
‘India in midst of ‘something special’’
Another veteran of the stock market, Ramesh Damani, thinks India is in the midst of “something truly special”.
“This bull market in terms of how well it bounced back from lows is suggesting that there is something going on that is extraordinary in India. We are in the process of taking India from a trillion-dollar economy to not a 2-trillion dollar or a 3-trillion dollar economy but something far greater,”( Here is the crux...India not in making a 2 or 3 trillion economy but far greater then this) Damani told CNBC-TV18 recently. “Maybe in a generation, we will take a population from affliction to affluence, from poverty to prosperity, maybe we would go from 100 million people in the middle class right now to a billion people in the middle class and that has profound implications for various investment horizons.” (Understand the finer lines of this sentence)
After the spectacular run seen in 2009, investors would be doing wishful thinking to expect the same pace of rise ahead, believes renowned fund manager Madhu Kela of Reliance MF. He, however, said now was a market in which stock pickers would shine. ( This is what I am doing here)“Stock-specific, there are humongous opportunities. If one is right in predicting the Indian bull run, you can even today find companies, which are in the vicinity of Rs 5,000-15,000 crore market cap that could go up three-five times over the next few years,” he recently said.
Damani says the idea now is to hunt for bargains where you can buy companies with the proverbial tri-factors: good management, good business and good value.
The market guru summed up the overall sentiment over the country nicely when he likened India of today to the America of the 50s:( One need to understand this quote) “You knew that [back then in America] the Korean War took place and the Vietnam War took place and the race riots took place but the index kept plodding higher over periods of time and if you bought the right companies at that time, you made an enormous amount of fortune by the time 2000 came around."
"So maybe we will see a lot of corrections during this way, riots in India, slippages and liquidity crises but if you invest in the right kind of companies and the right kind of stocks, probably there is a pot at the end of the rainbow that is waiting for investors.”
My Comments:
In One para RJ says that we are in teens.In one para RD says that we are going to become BIG not as 2 -3 trillion economy but much greater then that.
What if we become a 2-3 trillion economy from a trillion dollar economy?and what can happen if we become much greater then that?At 1 trillion economy we are at 17k , what if we become a 2-3 trillion economy and then much bigger then that?It is anybody's guess.......Have I to elaborate that where can be the sensex?
“Maybe in a generation, we will take a population from affliction to affluence, from poverty to prosperity, maybe we would go from 100 million people in the middle class right now to a billion people in the middle class and that has profound implications for various investment horizons.”
Can one be able to understand what it means?From going 100 million of middle class people to 1 billion middle class people?Can anyone imagine the impact of this when that happens?I think there are many of my readers who are smart enough to understand the bottomline what it means......
RD and likes says that we are at where US economy was in 50's.....what does it mean?I leave that to my readers.....
I am again listing some stocks which are looking good and the list may consist of new ones as well as old ones.That doesn't mean that which are leftout are not good as it will be difficult for me to recall all stock I recomended in past and write it here.....
1)Surya Chakra Power
This stock I recomended when I use to write at mmb and that is in last bull run.
2)Laffans Petro.
Signing MOU with Huntsman Chemical is a trigger for this Co....
3)Sujana Towers.
If someone can read the consolidate results(not standalone) there is something which I have seen which looks mind blowing to me at this time.Maybe I have overread it or not interpreted well.But if anyone can find and read it and tell me what it is, I will be glad ....
4)Rasandik Eng....
5) PAE
6)Goldstone Infra
7)SNL Bearing
8)Geometric Ltd
9)Kale Consultancy
I already recomended here at 74...now over 90...
10)Heidelberg Cement
11) Prism Cement
12)Yash Raj Containeur
13)Venus Remedies
14)Surya Pharma
15)Ind Swift Ltd
16)Ind Swift Lab
17)Resonance Speciality
This also I use to recomend at mmb
18)Jupiter Bio
19)Apar Ind
20)PSL Ltd
21)Kirloskar Ferro
22)LT Foods
23)Marg Ltd
24)MSK Project
25)JMC Project
26)Shriram EPC
27)Ennore Coke
28)India Glycols
29)Lumax Ind
30)Investment Precision and Casting
31)Super Spinning
32)Super Sales
33)Suryalata Spinning
34)Suryajyoti Spinnig
35)Surayvanshi Spinning
36)Mazda Ind
There are many which I may have missed....but the calls remains the same......Well, these are stocks whose management are not proved.This is blank calls except few...so do the DD and then take the plunge.....
Best of Luck for New Year......
We Welcome 2010.......and against what our beloved bear opinion of seeing 12k first before 21k comes...I say we will see 21k first and never see 12k.....anytime........
Updates:
Today I saw that Money Matters was firing all cylinders and closed at 168...Supreme Potro made a new high of 31.85,Kirlos Ferro made a 52 week high at 37.65,Mcnally Bharat made a 52 week high at 239,Tinplate recomended at 43 cum right made a life time high of 94.80 and many more to come......
I have been through an article from Monercontrol site which I am pasting here with my COMMENTS in Bracket......
Decade of equities: When India took centre-stage.......
A decade is a long time. Especially in equity markets. When 1999 ended, the world had just witnessed the burst of a dotcom bubble that, in hind sight, many people reckoned couldn’t have gotten more nonsensical. End of 2009, and we are being thrust out of yet another larger financial bubble which, when it burst last year, threatened to obliterate the very face of capitalism.
It goes to prove the legendary Warren Buffet’s words, who once said, ‘Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.’ How many investors, though, burnt their fingers in the late 90s’ dotcom bubble and the euphoria over realty stocks back here in India between 2005 and 2007 remains to be ascertained.
But the overall story doesn’t change. Over the longer term, India’s benchmark Sensex — what with its forceful, violent corrections along the way — maintains its head up. Start 2000, and the Sensex hovered around the 5,000 mark. End of 2009, it’s above 17,000. Compare that with US stocks, and Wall Street has moved all over the place but remained exactly where it was a decade ago.
Markets often smell things in advance, it is often said. No wonder then that stock markets in China and India — the new superpowers of the east — headed up while their developed counterparts sensed something was going wrong with the world’s superpower, America, as it loaded up on its gargantuan debt by spending more than it earned, fought costly, bloody wars it was not winning, and implemented economic policies that defied both rationality and economics.
2009 resumption of bull market?
Was the correction of 2008 just another — mega, as it may — blip for the Indian market machine, one that bummed it up but which it will shrug and move on? Billionaire investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala believes so. The Indian Warren Buffett, as he is dubbed by the media, has often said the Indian economy, with its large savings, young working age populace and a clean financial system unlike the troublesome one in the west, “is in its teens”.
“I see no reason why — if Indian software exports grow by 10-15%, commodity prices hold at reasonable levels and we have good government policies — India cannot grow at double digits,” he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview in June. The Indian economy grew 7.9% last quarter when the developed nations strategised ways to fight their way out of the recession, which in simpler terms means negative growth. India, Jhunjhunwala said, would continue to attract capital from the world because of its astounding growth.
“The fall from 21,000 to 7,500-8,000 for the index [in 2008] was just a correction in the longer-term bull market in India,” he said. “Actually, the first correction started in September 2001 because the real bottom the market made was post-September 11, 2001, and then the market went up to 3,500 and had a historic correction back in April 2003.”
A staggering four-and-a-half year bull market then saw the Sensex reach all-time highs of 21,000 in January 2008, just when the global financial crisis hit home. “Now, I do not think the Sensex will cross 21,000 in a straight line. We have to correct and we have to make a range and only then we can have the next move.”
‘India in midst of ‘something special’’
Another veteran of the stock market, Ramesh Damani, thinks India is in the midst of “something truly special”.
“This bull market in terms of how well it bounced back from lows is suggesting that there is something going on that is extraordinary in India. We are in the process of taking India from a trillion-dollar economy to not a 2-trillion dollar or a 3-trillion dollar economy but something far greater,”( Here is the crux...India not in making a 2 or 3 trillion economy but far greater then this) Damani told CNBC-TV18 recently. “Maybe in a generation, we will take a population from affliction to affluence, from poverty to prosperity, maybe we would go from 100 million people in the middle class right now to a billion people in the middle class and that has profound implications for various investment horizons.” (Understand the finer lines of this sentence)
After the spectacular run seen in 2009, investors would be doing wishful thinking to expect the same pace of rise ahead, believes renowned fund manager Madhu Kela of Reliance MF. He, however, said now was a market in which stock pickers would shine. ( This is what I am doing here)“Stock-specific, there are humongous opportunities. If one is right in predicting the Indian bull run, you can even today find companies, which are in the vicinity of Rs 5,000-15,000 crore market cap that could go up three-five times over the next few years,” he recently said.
Damani says the idea now is to hunt for bargains where you can buy companies with the proverbial tri-factors: good management, good business and good value.
The market guru summed up the overall sentiment over the country nicely when he likened India of today to the America of the 50s:( One need to understand this quote) “You knew that [back then in America] the Korean War took place and the Vietnam War took place and the race riots took place but the index kept plodding higher over periods of time and if you bought the right companies at that time, you made an enormous amount of fortune by the time 2000 came around."
"So maybe we will see a lot of corrections during this way, riots in India, slippages and liquidity crises but if you invest in the right kind of companies and the right kind of stocks, probably there is a pot at the end of the rainbow that is waiting for investors.”
My Comments:
In One para RJ says that we are in teens.In one para RD says that we are going to become BIG not as 2 -3 trillion economy but much greater then that.
What if we become a 2-3 trillion economy from a trillion dollar economy?and what can happen if we become much greater then that?At 1 trillion economy we are at 17k , what if we become a 2-3 trillion economy and then much bigger then that?It is anybody's guess.......Have I to elaborate that where can be the sensex?
“Maybe in a generation, we will take a population from affliction to affluence, from poverty to prosperity, maybe we would go from 100 million people in the middle class right now to a billion people in the middle class and that has profound implications for various investment horizons.”
Can one be able to understand what it means?From going 100 million of middle class people to 1 billion middle class people?Can anyone imagine the impact of this when that happens?I think there are many of my readers who are smart enough to understand the bottomline what it means......
RD and likes says that we are at where US economy was in 50's.....what does it mean?I leave that to my readers.....
I am again listing some stocks which are looking good and the list may consist of new ones as well as old ones.That doesn't mean that which are leftout are not good as it will be difficult for me to recall all stock I recomended in past and write it here.....
1)Surya Chakra Power
This stock I recomended when I use to write at mmb and that is in last bull run.
2)Laffans Petro.
Signing MOU with Huntsman Chemical is a trigger for this Co....
3)Sujana Towers.
If someone can read the consolidate results(not standalone) there is something which I have seen which looks mind blowing to me at this time.Maybe I have overread it or not interpreted well.But if anyone can find and read it and tell me what it is, I will be glad ....
4)Rasandik Eng....
5) PAE
6)Goldstone Infra
7)SNL Bearing
8)Geometric Ltd
9)Kale Consultancy
I already recomended here at 74...now over 90...
10)Heidelberg Cement
11) Prism Cement
12)Yash Raj Containeur
13)Venus Remedies
14)Surya Pharma
15)Ind Swift Ltd
16)Ind Swift Lab
17)Resonance Speciality
This also I use to recomend at mmb
18)Jupiter Bio
19)Apar Ind
20)PSL Ltd
21)Kirloskar Ferro
22)LT Foods
23)Marg Ltd
24)MSK Project
25)JMC Project
26)Shriram EPC
27)Ennore Coke
28)India Glycols
29)Lumax Ind
30)Investment Precision and Casting
31)Super Spinning
32)Super Sales
33)Suryalata Spinning
34)Suryajyoti Spinnig
35)Surayvanshi Spinning
36)Mazda Ind
There are many which I may have missed....but the calls remains the same......Well, these are stocks whose management are not proved.This is blank calls except few...so do the DD and then take the plunge.....
Best of Luck for New Year......
We Welcome 2010.......and against what our beloved bear opinion of seeing 12k first before 21k comes...I say we will see 21k first and never see 12k.....anytime........
Updates:
Today I saw that Money Matters was firing all cylinders and closed at 168...Supreme Potro made a new high of 31.85,Kirlos Ferro made a 52 week high at 37.65,Mcnally Bharat made a 52 week high at 239,Tinplate recomended at 43 cum right made a life time high of 94.80 and many more to come......
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Beating The Dalal Street ....HITS 1 LAC VISITS.....
Friends,
After 2 years of starting the blog which was on 12th Dec 2007.....the 1 lac visit has been made with 1.6 lacs pages viewed.
I accidently went to the site metre page today and saw that the 1 LAC visit has already gone through couple of days back.
I thanks every reader of mine for putting faith in me and keeping the blog in good view.
I will try my best to put my effort while writing the stuff here.
After 2 years of starting the blog which was on 12th Dec 2007.....the 1 lac visit has been made with 1.6 lacs pages viewed.
I accidently went to the site metre page today and saw that the 1 LAC visit has already gone through couple of days back.
I thanks every reader of mine for putting faith in me and keeping the blog in good view.
I will try my best to put my effort while writing the stuff here.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
SNL Bearing and Sujana Towers....and others.....
Freinds,
I am happy to note that SNL Bearing has doubled from my recomended price of Rs 11...which I wrote here on 24 Nov...means it has doubled in 1 month.......time to Bookprofit for early birds...those who bought at 11 should bookprofit and sell 50% and make the rest FREE...
Sujana Towers has come out with excellent results for this Sep qr showing almost 4 EPS...the sales is up by 50% then last year same qr......promoters has increased the stake and are now holding over 60% stake in it.....the NPM has also improved....
Sujana Towers is going to play major role in Power sector.........
One of the reader told me that Venus Remedies and YashRaj Containeurs are also doing good along with my other calls....like Tinplate Ltd which I recomended CR......Venus recomended at 220, is now 280.....great going.....
This is just a short note....there are many which are moving steadily like Laffans Petro, Jyoti Ltd,Rasandik Eng ,PAE etc...and some are remaining steady like Geometric Ltd,Kirlos Ferro, KPIT Cummins etc after a good upmove...Sahyadri Ind has crossed 100 mark and now ready for next upmove.....
I gave a callon CCAP Ltd at 41 citing all reasons...I donno whether someone bought it or not.....it is 55 now.....
With Textile sector coming back in favour,keep track on stocks like Super Spining, Super Sales, Suryalata Spinning , SuryaJyoti Spinning and Suryavanshi Spinning....these were market darling stocks in 90's ....the first 2 stocks have 50% eq due to Bonuses.....they were very good Co...the happy days are back again .......
I am happy to note that SNL Bearing has doubled from my recomended price of Rs 11...which I wrote here on 24 Nov...means it has doubled in 1 month.......time to Bookprofit for early birds...those who bought at 11 should bookprofit and sell 50% and make the rest FREE...
Sujana Towers has come out with excellent results for this Sep qr showing almost 4 EPS...the sales is up by 50% then last year same qr......promoters has increased the stake and are now holding over 60% stake in it.....the NPM has also improved....
Sujana Towers is going to play major role in Power sector.........
One of the reader told me that Venus Remedies and YashRaj Containeurs are also doing good along with my other calls....like Tinplate Ltd which I recomended CR......Venus recomended at 220, is now 280.....great going.....
This is just a short note....there are many which are moving steadily like Laffans Petro, Jyoti Ltd,Rasandik Eng ,PAE etc...and some are remaining steady like Geometric Ltd,Kirlos Ferro, KPIT Cummins etc after a good upmove...Sahyadri Ind has crossed 100 mark and now ready for next upmove.....
I gave a callon CCAP Ltd at 41 citing all reasons...I donno whether someone bought it or not.....it is 55 now.....
With Textile sector coming back in favour,keep track on stocks like Super Spining, Super Sales, Suryalata Spinning , SuryaJyoti Spinning and Suryavanshi Spinning....these were market darling stocks in 90's ....the first 2 stocks have 50% eq due to Bonuses.....they were very good Co...the happy days are back again .......
What should an Investor do in this market......
Freinds,
I am trying to give my view on what one should do now at sensex 17k....
My thinking maybe totally wrong and there can be big difference in what I will write or what people will think, including my readers as well as experts........I am no match to those experts as I am not in contact of what FII's thinks or what DII's thinks or what HNI's think or for that matter what Fund manager thinks be it Indian for Foriegn.....So those who find views different then me should opt for what they think is correct.There is no bounding from me.It is yours money and you should know what needs to be done.....
I sometimes also feels that as one of the reader wrote me recently that majority of my picks which I gave in 2008 , the prices are way down from there.So am I good enough to write at my blog?Well, it is ofcourse my blog and I can write whatever I think, but the question arises is if my picks do not do well then whether it is worth writing here......
He also ask me that he wants to learn from me how I pick up the stock.But I ask him, if I am not able to give proper picks , which are laggards and gives negative returns then why he should try to learn my way of picking stock......
He also once asked me that isn't it so that as market is running ,hence my picks are also doing good?Now when that is the case then where is the need to follow my blog?
He ask me if Luck is playing that much important role then why this boasting?Yes, I agree, that Luck plays important role but then in that case one needs to close the eye and put a fingure on any stock quote in ET or any business paper and buy it and if you have LUCK, you are always going to get great returns from that stock.......It is that simple....
He also tells me that I was never pessimist in whole 2008.Well, who was?Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
has said in an interview that he never thought that market will break 16k.We never saw him selling stocks in 2008.Did we?What that says?Did we saw Warren Buffet selling stocks in 2008?
Market broke 16k and even went down by 50% from there at 8k .......but RJ holding was still there.....
I have been adviced that the rule has changed.One need to sell fast and buy fast.Means take 10-20% profit and move to other stock.But according to me the rules has not changed.People holding stocks for LT has been rewarded by the market immensly and that has been proved again except the stock is proper.....
Now coming back to what one should do.........at 17,000 sensex....
Well, one should go ahead and BUY stocks if one sees value ......that is the most important thing one should understand......
As one of the reader pasted me an article of Dalal Street journal magazine ,in which it was written that many are still sceptic about the market and there are pockets who are waiting for correction.....
Value ,one will always find anytime.Was Burlington North cheap when Buffet decided to buy at 20-30% premium of market price?It was already $70-$73 and Buffet bougt at 20-25% premium....No one was ever able to see that before Buffet?Where were Marc Faber,Jim Rogers and likes ......or is it so that Buffet decision is wrong?He overly paid for Burlington North?Was Buffet thinking was wrong?
What one can see as a mistake can become a very great investment in future...I am sure many people were thinking that investment in HOEC was a blunder that RJ made but see where it is now and if one will see the latest annoucement , HOEC has all the ingrediants to go for 4 figure mark.
What is important in market is what one is able to read in future of any Co.Looking at present performance on earnings, one will say it is fully priced or overly priced but I can say that HOEC has the ability to touch 1000-1200 in due course time....I can read it from the news that are coming from HOEC .
HOEC remained dorment for almost 5 yrs and never ran in the last bull run.Instead it went on increasing capital through right issue, I think the right issue came twice......now what that will lead to.....Co is doing nothing and spending money and increasing the Eq.....and now see, before market makes new HIGH, HOEC is making new HIGHS......Analyst will always says that HOEC is overpriced.....Aree ,HOEC to kain lavato hase?Ema shun che......and those who didn't buy missed a multibagger.....
So the thing is , how you can FORESEE......how you can judge what is coming up.....that is the bottomline.....
So according to some experts if Bull market is when sensex crosses 21k...then we have a very long way to go and if one is thinking that India can grow much higher then this then one should stay invested as the peak has not come yet.
The euphoria is still not there.My way to seeing the euphoria will be when we will again see the column of 52 week high in ET becoming bigger and bigger....that has not yet comein.....I have seen some experts saying that all stocks has started running, cats and dogs ,and hence time to be catious, then I don't believe them as not all cats and dogs are running, Only those who have some story brewing up are running...At 17k, we are just 4k behind at all time high of sensex and hence cash gr stock has to matchup with it....this is not euphoria...there are many who are sitting in sidelines waiting for more correction....waiting for 13k or 12k.....as once Shankar Sharma categorically said that he sees 12k first before 21k comes......Untill those sitting on sidelines waiting for correction becomes desperate and start investing, thinking that they will now definately miss the bus...as market never gives the price at the rate you wants to enter and untill market gives that chance , it is not euphoria.....stocks that goes up is still coming back to give chance to buy at lower rate...the day the previous price stops coming back...market will starts its journey towards peaking out....
I am trying to give my view on what one should do now at sensex 17k....
My thinking maybe totally wrong and there can be big difference in what I will write or what people will think, including my readers as well as experts........I am no match to those experts as I am not in contact of what FII's thinks or what DII's thinks or what HNI's think or for that matter what Fund manager thinks be it Indian for Foriegn.....So those who find views different then me should opt for what they think is correct.There is no bounding from me.It is yours money and you should know what needs to be done.....
I sometimes also feels that as one of the reader wrote me recently that majority of my picks which I gave in 2008 , the prices are way down from there.So am I good enough to write at my blog?Well, it is ofcourse my blog and I can write whatever I think, but the question arises is if my picks do not do well then whether it is worth writing here......
He also ask me that he wants to learn from me how I pick up the stock.But I ask him, if I am not able to give proper picks , which are laggards and gives negative returns then why he should try to learn my way of picking stock......
He also once asked me that isn't it so that as market is running ,hence my picks are also doing good?Now when that is the case then where is the need to follow my blog?
He ask me if Luck is playing that much important role then why this boasting?Yes, I agree, that Luck plays important role but then in that case one needs to close the eye and put a fingure on any stock quote in ET or any business paper and buy it and if you have LUCK, you are always going to get great returns from that stock.......It is that simple....
He also tells me that I was never pessimist in whole 2008.Well, who was?Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
has said in an interview that he never thought that market will break 16k.We never saw him selling stocks in 2008.Did we?What that says?Did we saw Warren Buffet selling stocks in 2008?
Market broke 16k and even went down by 50% from there at 8k .......but RJ holding was still there.....
I have been adviced that the rule has changed.One need to sell fast and buy fast.Means take 10-20% profit and move to other stock.But according to me the rules has not changed.People holding stocks for LT has been rewarded by the market immensly and that has been proved again except the stock is proper.....
Now coming back to what one should do.........at 17,000 sensex....
Well, one should go ahead and BUY stocks if one sees value ......that is the most important thing one should understand......
As one of the reader pasted me an article of Dalal Street journal magazine ,in which it was written that many are still sceptic about the market and there are pockets who are waiting for correction.....
Value ,one will always find anytime.Was Burlington North cheap when Buffet decided to buy at 20-30% premium of market price?It was already $70-$73 and Buffet bougt at 20-25% premium....No one was ever able to see that before Buffet?Where were Marc Faber,Jim Rogers and likes ......or is it so that Buffet decision is wrong?He overly paid for Burlington North?Was Buffet thinking was wrong?
What one can see as a mistake can become a very great investment in future...I am sure many people were thinking that investment in HOEC was a blunder that RJ made but see where it is now and if one will see the latest annoucement , HOEC has all the ingrediants to go for 4 figure mark.
What is important in market is what one is able to read in future of any Co.Looking at present performance on earnings, one will say it is fully priced or overly priced but I can say that HOEC has the ability to touch 1000-1200 in due course time....I can read it from the news that are coming from HOEC .
HOEC remained dorment for almost 5 yrs and never ran in the last bull run.Instead it went on increasing capital through right issue, I think the right issue came twice......now what that will lead to.....Co is doing nothing and spending money and increasing the Eq.....and now see, before market makes new HIGH, HOEC is making new HIGHS......Analyst will always says that HOEC is overpriced.....Aree ,HOEC to kain lavato hase?Ema shun che......and those who didn't buy missed a multibagger.....
So the thing is , how you can FORESEE......how you can judge what is coming up.....that is the bottomline.....
So according to some experts if Bull market is when sensex crosses 21k...then we have a very long way to go and if one is thinking that India can grow much higher then this then one should stay invested as the peak has not come yet.
The euphoria is still not there.My way to seeing the euphoria will be when we will again see the column of 52 week high in ET becoming bigger and bigger....that has not yet comein.....I have seen some experts saying that all stocks has started running, cats and dogs ,and hence time to be catious, then I don't believe them as not all cats and dogs are running, Only those who have some story brewing up are running...At 17k, we are just 4k behind at all time high of sensex and hence cash gr stock has to matchup with it....this is not euphoria...there are many who are sitting in sidelines waiting for more correction....waiting for 13k or 12k.....as once Shankar Sharma categorically said that he sees 12k first before 21k comes......Untill those sitting on sidelines waiting for correction becomes desperate and start investing, thinking that they will now definately miss the bus...as market never gives the price at the rate you wants to enter and untill market gives that chance , it is not euphoria.....stocks that goes up is still coming back to give chance to buy at lower rate...the day the previous price stops coming back...market will starts its journey towards peaking out....
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
What's luck got to do with investing? ..........
What's luck got to do with investing?
Vivek KaulMonday, December 28, 2009 21:53 IST Email
How do I define history? It's just one f*%&ing thing after another.
-- Rudge in Alan Bennett's The History Boys
I came across this sentence last night and it's been haunting me ever since. It reminds me of a situation which I encounter almost everyday: "What's the story?" my editor(s) ask, when I make a pitch to them about something I want to write on.
Well I don't blame them for asking the same question over and over again. After all, newspapers are in the business of making sense of what is happening around us. But are we really doing that? Or to ask a deeper question, can we really do that?
Take the case of the BSE Sensex rallying by a little more than 500 points on December 23. Now why did it happen? If newspaper reports are to be believed (including this newspaper), the market went up because the finance minister revised the GDP growth rate to between 7.5% and 8%.
Sounds reasonable? Yes. Or does it?The FM has made such noises of the economy doing well in the past as well. Has the market rallied to such an extent, every time he has said something optimistic? Or has it rallied to the extent it rallied on December 23?
Or was it, to put it a little more realistically, a case of investors getting up on the right side of the bed, and in the pre-Christmas good mood, going out and buying stocks, and thus pushing up prices? The point is, I don't know. But I can't say that to my editor. We are in the business of explaining things. (In fact, the word analysis is even built into our paper's name). And that's what I do on an occasion like this; I try and create a story which explains things.
John Allen Paulos explains this phenomenon in his extremely engaging book A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market: "Around stock market rises and declines, people are often prone to devise just-so-stories to satisfy various needs and concerns."
Having said that, what would be the correct way to report on such events? Nassim Nicholas Taleb, before he became famous for writing Black Swan, wrote a much better book called Fooled by Randomness. In this book, he elaborates what he feels should be a true role of a journalist. "To be competent, a journalist should view matters like a historian, and play down the value of the information he is providing, such as by saying: 'Today the market went up, but this information is not too relevant as it emanates mostly from noise.'"
Now, have you ever come across a story, article or column in a newspaper that says just that? Of course not! Anybody trying to do that is more likely to lose his job, as Taleb puts it "by trivialising the value of information on his hands."
This inherent need to construct a story around events leads to several other interesting situations. The media likes heroes. We create them now to destroy them later.
Take the case of someone like a Rakesh Jhunjhunwala in India, or a Warren Buffett in the US. Are they really as competent as they are made out to be or does luck play a huge part in their success?
As Taleb writes, "If one puts an infinite number of monkeys in front of (strongly built) typewriters, and lets them clap away, there is a certainty that one of them would come out with an exact version of the Iliad... Now that we have found that hero among monkeys, would any reader invest his life's savings on a bet that the monkey would write the Oddsey next?"
The investors we love to write about are survivors who have had a lucky winning streak of generating greater returns than the broader market over the years.
As Malcolm Gladwell explains in his new book What the Dog Saw and Other Adventures, "Suppose that there were 10,000 investment managers out there, which is not an outlandish number, and that every year half of them, entirely by chance, made money and half of them, entirely by chance, lost. And suppose that every year, the losers were tossed out and the game was replayed with those who remained. At the end of five years, there would be three hundred thirteen people who had made money in every one of those years, and after 10 years, there would be nine people who had made money every single year in a row, all out of pure luck."
Leonard Mlodinow, a faculty at the California Institute of Technology explains this phenomenon rather succinctly: "a simple calculation shows that if a the few thousand mutual fund managers who were managing funds... were simply flipping coins once a year, rather than investing in the market, and if we equated getting 'heads' with beating the S&P, then after a few decades, the chances of a streak of 'beating the S&P' for 15 or more years in a row would be 75%.This illustrates that a streak like this was to be expected, by chance alone, and hence does not indicate skill."
A good example of a person who rode this phenomenon is a mutual fund manager called Bill Miller whose Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund -- one of the biggest mutual funds in the world -- beat the returns of S&P 500 Index for 15 consecutive years from 1991 to 2005.
Tomes got written on his legendary investing style and various reasons got attributed to his success. But Mlodinow feels Miller was plain lucky. And his performance regressed to the mean once the current financial crisis had an impact on the performance of his fund. As Michael J Mauboussin, Miller's colleague at Legg Masson, writes in his new book Think Twice, "We have difficulty in sorting skill and luck in lots of fields, including business and investing."
Over and above this, because these guys are famous, other investors follow their investing decisions, buy when they buy, and sell when they sell. This makes these investors look even more smarter than they are. As Paulos writes about Warren Buffett: "His phenomenal success... is often cited as an argument against the market's randomness. This assumes, however, that Buffett's choices have no effect on the market. Originally no doubt they didn't, but now his selections themselves... can influence others. His performance is therefore a bit less remarkable than it first appears."
At times, investors themselves come up with stories and theories regarding their investment decisions. George Soros, the hedge fund manager, who once broke the back of the British pound, is said follow the Theory of Reflexivity, which was influenced by the work of the philosopher Karl Popper (who said and as Gladwell states in his new book, "You could not know with any certainty that a proposition was true; you could only know that it was not true"), while making his investment decisions.
But as Robert Soros once said about his more famous father, "My father will sit down and give you theories to explain why he does this or that. But I remember seeing it as a kid and thinking, Jesus Christ, at least half of this is bullshit. I mean, you know the reason he changes his position on the market or whatever is because his back starts killing him. It has nothing to do with reason. He literally goes into a spasm, and it's this early warning sign."
Luck plays a much more important role in the investing process than people (which include journalists like me) are ready to admit. But if we in the media start attributing luck and noise to every time a market moves, or an investor does well, what will we ever write about? And we need our headlines, because headlines sell what we write, though they never tell you the real story.
As Taleb summarises it best "People do not realise that the media is paid to get our attention. For a journalist, silence rarely surpasses any word."
Vivek KaulMonday, December 28, 2009 21:53 IST Email
How do I define history? It's just one f*%&ing thing after another.
-- Rudge in Alan Bennett's The History Boys
I came across this sentence last night and it's been haunting me ever since. It reminds me of a situation which I encounter almost everyday: "What's the story?" my editor(s) ask, when I make a pitch to them about something I want to write on.
Well I don't blame them for asking the same question over and over again. After all, newspapers are in the business of making sense of what is happening around us. But are we really doing that? Or to ask a deeper question, can we really do that?
Take the case of the BSE Sensex rallying by a little more than 500 points on December 23. Now why did it happen? If newspaper reports are to be believed (including this newspaper), the market went up because the finance minister revised the GDP growth rate to between 7.5% and 8%.
Sounds reasonable? Yes. Or does it?The FM has made such noises of the economy doing well in the past as well. Has the market rallied to such an extent, every time he has said something optimistic? Or has it rallied to the extent it rallied on December 23?
Or was it, to put it a little more realistically, a case of investors getting up on the right side of the bed, and in the pre-Christmas good mood, going out and buying stocks, and thus pushing up prices? The point is, I don't know. But I can't say that to my editor. We are in the business of explaining things. (In fact, the word analysis is even built into our paper's name). And that's what I do on an occasion like this; I try and create a story which explains things.
John Allen Paulos explains this phenomenon in his extremely engaging book A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market: "Around stock market rises and declines, people are often prone to devise just-so-stories to satisfy various needs and concerns."
Having said that, what would be the correct way to report on such events? Nassim Nicholas Taleb, before he became famous for writing Black Swan, wrote a much better book called Fooled by Randomness. In this book, he elaborates what he feels should be a true role of a journalist. "To be competent, a journalist should view matters like a historian, and play down the value of the information he is providing, such as by saying: 'Today the market went up, but this information is not too relevant as it emanates mostly from noise.'"
Now, have you ever come across a story, article or column in a newspaper that says just that? Of course not! Anybody trying to do that is more likely to lose his job, as Taleb puts it "by trivialising the value of information on his hands."
This inherent need to construct a story around events leads to several other interesting situations. The media likes heroes. We create them now to destroy them later.
Take the case of someone like a Rakesh Jhunjhunwala in India, or a Warren Buffett in the US. Are they really as competent as they are made out to be or does luck play a huge part in their success?
As Taleb writes, "If one puts an infinite number of monkeys in front of (strongly built) typewriters, and lets them clap away, there is a certainty that one of them would come out with an exact version of the Iliad... Now that we have found that hero among monkeys, would any reader invest his life's savings on a bet that the monkey would write the Oddsey next?"
The investors we love to write about are survivors who have had a lucky winning streak of generating greater returns than the broader market over the years.
As Malcolm Gladwell explains in his new book What the Dog Saw and Other Adventures, "Suppose that there were 10,000 investment managers out there, which is not an outlandish number, and that every year half of them, entirely by chance, made money and half of them, entirely by chance, lost. And suppose that every year, the losers were tossed out and the game was replayed with those who remained. At the end of five years, there would be three hundred thirteen people who had made money in every one of those years, and after 10 years, there would be nine people who had made money every single year in a row, all out of pure luck."
Leonard Mlodinow, a faculty at the California Institute of Technology explains this phenomenon rather succinctly: "a simple calculation shows that if a the few thousand mutual fund managers who were managing funds... were simply flipping coins once a year, rather than investing in the market, and if we equated getting 'heads' with beating the S&P, then after a few decades, the chances of a streak of 'beating the S&P' for 15 or more years in a row would be 75%.This illustrates that a streak like this was to be expected, by chance alone, and hence does not indicate skill."
A good example of a person who rode this phenomenon is a mutual fund manager called Bill Miller whose Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund -- one of the biggest mutual funds in the world -- beat the returns of S&P 500 Index for 15 consecutive years from 1991 to 2005.
Tomes got written on his legendary investing style and various reasons got attributed to his success. But Mlodinow feels Miller was plain lucky. And his performance regressed to the mean once the current financial crisis had an impact on the performance of his fund. As Michael J Mauboussin, Miller's colleague at Legg Masson, writes in his new book Think Twice, "We have difficulty in sorting skill and luck in lots of fields, including business and investing."
Over and above this, because these guys are famous, other investors follow their investing decisions, buy when they buy, and sell when they sell. This makes these investors look even more smarter than they are. As Paulos writes about Warren Buffett: "His phenomenal success... is often cited as an argument against the market's randomness. This assumes, however, that Buffett's choices have no effect on the market. Originally no doubt they didn't, but now his selections themselves... can influence others. His performance is therefore a bit less remarkable than it first appears."
At times, investors themselves come up with stories and theories regarding their investment decisions. George Soros, the hedge fund manager, who once broke the back of the British pound, is said follow the Theory of Reflexivity, which was influenced by the work of the philosopher Karl Popper (who said and as Gladwell states in his new book, "You could not know with any certainty that a proposition was true; you could only know that it was not true"), while making his investment decisions.
But as Robert Soros once said about his more famous father, "My father will sit down and give you theories to explain why he does this or that. But I remember seeing it as a kid and thinking, Jesus Christ, at least half of this is bullshit. I mean, you know the reason he changes his position on the market or whatever is because his back starts killing him. It has nothing to do with reason. He literally goes into a spasm, and it's this early warning sign."
Luck plays a much more important role in the investing process than people (which include journalists like me) are ready to admit. But if we in the media start attributing luck and noise to every time a market moves, or an investor does well, what will we ever write about? And we need our headlines, because headlines sell what we write, though they never tell you the real story.
As Taleb summarises it best "People do not realise that the media is paid to get our attention. For a journalist, silence rarely surpasses any word."
Monday, December 28, 2009
Supreme Petro......my old call......
Friends,
I gave a call on Supreme Petro long time back.
I even discussed it here recently......
Now ET has come out with a buy report which I am pasting here for my readers.....
Reading today also that Goldman Sachs is taking over 10% stake for 500 cr and they will join the board of Max India as well......Max India , has remained my favourite stock as I have been recomending it time and again.
That once again proves that my calls are well ahead of time.....
Supreme Petrochem:
Supreme Petrochem is set gain from a turnaround in the polystyrene industry. Long-term investors should invest in the stock .
SUPREME Petrochemicals is India’s largest producer and exporter of polystyrene (PS) polymer with an installed capacity of 272,000 tonne per annum (TPA). The company acquired Shin Ho Petrochemicals in 2006 with a manufacturing capacity of 6,000 TPA of expandable polystyrene (EPS) at Chennai. The name of the company was later changed to SPL Polymers, before merging it with Supreme Petrochemicals.
In 2006, the company had entered into an MoU with the Maharashtra government to set up a world class styrenics complex and a minor port in the Raigad district at an estimated investment of Rs 1,115 crore. However, the land acquisition for the project is still continuing through MIDC
while the company has obtained environmental clearances. The company has implemented a share buyback last year to acquire and extinguish 15.4 lakh shares. The company’s equity capital now stands reduced to Rs 96.8 crore.
GROWTH DRIVERS:
The polystyrene industry globally had been suffering from overcapacity and stagnating demand due to competition from polypropylene. However, the scenario has improved with nearly 1.5 million tonne or 10% of the world’s PS capacity closing down in last three years. At the same time, the demand prospects are improving. The lightweight sheets made from extruded PS are increasingly being used for insulation in construction buildings to reduce energy consumption. In fact several developed countries have made this kind of insulation mandatory, and even in India the concept is gaining currency as part of ‘Green Building’ initiatives. In fact the first half of 2009 witnessed the domestic demand for PS spurt 22% against a year ago.
Supreme Petrochemicals is also shifting its focus from commodity polymer to value added varieties such as coloured, compounded, specialty, expandable, extruded and cup grade polystyrene. It has lined up investments of over Rs 200 crore to expand its capacities in all these value added products within next 18 months. The company has also entered in a tie-up with Italy’s Ultrabatch to manufacture and market high-end additive masterbatches, which are concentrated mixture of pigments and additives. Similarly, it has joined
hands with the US based Nova Chemicals to set up 20,400 TPA cup-grade EPS plant in India, which has recently commenced operations.
FINANCIALS:
The company has been stagnating over last 5 years - both in case of topline as well as bottom line - due to difficult situations in the global polystyrene markets. During these five years, the company improved its debt-equity ratio gradually to 0.7 as on June 30, ’09 as against 1.48 five years ago.
For the year ended in June ’09, the company recorded a net profit of Rs 19.2 crore despite a net loss of Rs 46.7 crore in the December ’08 quarter due to inventory losses. A strong rebound in demand in the first half of 2009 enabled the company to wipe out these losses and end the year in profit.
VALUATIONS:
At the current market price of Rs 26 the company is valued at eight times its profits for the trailing 12 months. The current price is just 1.3 times the book value of the company’s stock price. Going forward, we expect the company to report net profit after tax of Rs 55 crore during the year ending June 2010, which translates in a forward P/E of 4.6. The dividend yield of 3.8% can add to the margin of safety for an investor. Considering the growth prospects as a result of the industry turnaround Supreme Petrochemicals appears attractively priced.
ramkrishna.kashelkar@timesgroup.com
I gave a call on Supreme Petro long time back.
I even discussed it here recently......
Now ET has come out with a buy report which I am pasting here for my readers.....
Reading today also that Goldman Sachs is taking over 10% stake for 500 cr and they will join the board of Max India as well......Max India , has remained my favourite stock as I have been recomending it time and again.
That once again proves that my calls are well ahead of time.....
Supreme Petrochem:
Supreme Petrochem is set gain from a turnaround in the polystyrene industry. Long-term investors should invest in the stock .
SUPREME Petrochemicals is India’s largest producer and exporter of polystyrene (PS) polymer with an installed capacity of 272,000 tonne per annum (TPA). The company acquired Shin Ho Petrochemicals in 2006 with a manufacturing capacity of 6,000 TPA of expandable polystyrene (EPS) at Chennai. The name of the company was later changed to SPL Polymers, before merging it with Supreme Petrochemicals.
In 2006, the company had entered into an MoU with the Maharashtra government to set up a world class styrenics complex and a minor port in the Raigad district at an estimated investment of Rs 1,115 crore. However, the land acquisition for the project is still continuing through MIDC
while the company has obtained environmental clearances. The company has implemented a share buyback last year to acquire and extinguish 15.4 lakh shares. The company’s equity capital now stands reduced to Rs 96.8 crore.
GROWTH DRIVERS:
The polystyrene industry globally had been suffering from overcapacity and stagnating demand due to competition from polypropylene. However, the scenario has improved with nearly 1.5 million tonne or 10% of the world’s PS capacity closing down in last three years. At the same time, the demand prospects are improving. The lightweight sheets made from extruded PS are increasingly being used for insulation in construction buildings to reduce energy consumption. In fact several developed countries have made this kind of insulation mandatory, and even in India the concept is gaining currency as part of ‘Green Building’ initiatives. In fact the first half of 2009 witnessed the domestic demand for PS spurt 22% against a year ago.
Supreme Petrochemicals is also shifting its focus from commodity polymer to value added varieties such as coloured, compounded, specialty, expandable, extruded and cup grade polystyrene. It has lined up investments of over Rs 200 crore to expand its capacities in all these value added products within next 18 months. The company has also entered in a tie-up with Italy’s Ultrabatch to manufacture and market high-end additive masterbatches, which are concentrated mixture of pigments and additives. Similarly, it has joined
hands with the US based Nova Chemicals to set up 20,400 TPA cup-grade EPS plant in India, which has recently commenced operations.
FINANCIALS:
The company has been stagnating over last 5 years - both in case of topline as well as bottom line - due to difficult situations in the global polystyrene markets. During these five years, the company improved its debt-equity ratio gradually to 0.7 as on June 30, ’09 as against 1.48 five years ago.
For the year ended in June ’09, the company recorded a net profit of Rs 19.2 crore despite a net loss of Rs 46.7 crore in the December ’08 quarter due to inventory losses. A strong rebound in demand in the first half of 2009 enabled the company to wipe out these losses and end the year in profit.
VALUATIONS:
At the current market price of Rs 26 the company is valued at eight times its profits for the trailing 12 months. The current price is just 1.3 times the book value of the company’s stock price. Going forward, we expect the company to report net profit after tax of Rs 55 crore during the year ending June 2010, which translates in a forward P/E of 4.6. The dividend yield of 3.8% can add to the margin of safety for an investor. Considering the growth prospects as a result of the industry turnaround Supreme Petrochemicals appears attractively priced.
ramkrishna.kashelkar@timesgroup.com
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Valuation............
What is valuation?How is it determined?What are the parametres to determine it.
We have seen experts of stock market speaking on Valuation.
The term use are undervalued, Overvalued or valuation at par....there can be many more names for giving ......
Now , how one can come on conclusion that the stock is overvalued or undervalued.I have a big PDF file which explains how to calculate the valuations that someone send me.I have saved it in my computer but has never read it.
If one will try to find a book on how to find valuation, they will find many books and after reading investor will find it fentestic and also would talk to some other stockmarket friend about that book and even refer it to read it.
Why I didn't go through that PDF File speaking on valuation?There are reasons for me not go read it.
I am not sure whether it is still there in my computer, so please don't ask for it........
I have seen that analyst who comes on business channel, says that so and so stock is now fully valued,means very less scope of going up.So one need to sell it or bookprofit in it.
Some stock expert says it is undervalued and can be bought.
I have seen one fund house or FII's or brokerage house giving a overvalued call on certain stock and other will come out with a buy call......in next couple of days......Now why that is happening?When one says it is overvalued why other is saying undervalued?
This gives the answer itself....there are different parametres to look at the valuations and all have different way to analyse it.One find overvalued other find undervalue....why so , because the growth one is able to see, other is not able to see.Or in other words,what one has got the firsthand information after meeting the management, other is not having that and hence one ends up saying it is overvalued and other end up saying it is undervalued........
Well, if there is not a big difference between two opinion then it is OK but when one says is totally opposite to what other say then whom to believe.
Valuation is not a constant thing.It keeps on changing,everyhour, everday , everyweek, everymonth or even everyyear.
A Co, say Aban Llyod, was overvalued in Jan 2009 and need to be sold with so big of debt and I was reading sell call from each and every house and in just one go......Crude started going up....valuation become cheap......look at the 52 week lows and 52 week high........of Aban Llyod....
Just a big order for a Co and stock become CHEAP......one product becomes successful and stock become undervalued.....
Valuation is a constantly changing thing.A stock can remain overvalued or fullyvalued for 2-3 yrs or even 4-5 yrs and suddenly the fortune changes and stock becomes darling and everyone wants to buy it......There are innumerable example like that in Indian Stock market as well in International market.
Valuation depends on how the economy is faring, how the Cos product is doing, what are the future potential of the Cos product,what world will need, how will be the demand,will perticular co will get beniffited from that and over and above that How market is doing.......there are so much of things to be taken care of that it is impossible to say anything on valuation front at anytime unless you have firsthand report.....on any Co.
Nestle was looking costly at 1600 to Dr Vikas and now at 2500 he is asking me whether it is a buy or not.
So at 1600 Nestle was overvalued and at 2500 it is not?Well that depends on how one thinks.If someone think that product will do good and has great future , one can definately go ahead and buy it at even this rate.
There is P/E ratio to decide.People looks at P/E .....sector p/e and see if that stock has lower p/e then other peers gr.....but that is also always not a great thing to do.Market can keep certain stock undervalued for a longer period of time and one can left with that stock not moving at all for entire whole bull run.......
Valuation is also related with demand and supply.If demand is more and supply is less then the stock can soar to great highs....irrespective of earnings.....
I have seen people (read expert) selling stocks at 3-5 times return and that stock went on to give 20-30 times return..............so noone can say that a stock is overvalued or undervalued......I think it is impossible to opine on that parametres.....
Have you ever met with a stock which when you see after 3-6 months or a year and you feel ,you missed it?These thing should have happened with each and everyone.I have no doubt about it.
Now why you were not able to buy it at that time ?What was the reason at that time that you missed such a great stock and ended up with something else which may be a laggard in your portfolio?Because at that time you were not able to see what is there in that stock and hence you didn't buy and those who were able to see bought it and making hay......
If the fundmanagers , analyst and some experts are so great in telling whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued then why their clients or funds Nav is still underpeforming even with the average return of market?
If they are great teller then they should show better return then the market gives but that is not the case........Very less funds gives above average return then market and very less gives same return like market .....
What is value then?Value is brand, value is management,value is growth, Value is foreseeing .....like when I wrote on SNL Bearing Ltd......it is NRB bearing managed Co .....which is showing positive bottomline.....and available at just Rs 11!Can one imagine a NRB Bearing run Co have such a less value? that is VALUE........Like I wrote on Yashraj Containeurs Ltd......great product and great clientele list and great earning .....and stock at 3-4 p/e?That is value.......and mind well, after doing all these market may not give the thumbs up to that stock...and one has to wait for longer period untill others find out.....
We have seen experts of stock market speaking on Valuation.
The term use are undervalued, Overvalued or valuation at par....there can be many more names for giving ......
Now , how one can come on conclusion that the stock is overvalued or undervalued.I have a big PDF file which explains how to calculate the valuations that someone send me.I have saved it in my computer but has never read it.
If one will try to find a book on how to find valuation, they will find many books and after reading investor will find it fentestic and also would talk to some other stockmarket friend about that book and even refer it to read it.
Why I didn't go through that PDF File speaking on valuation?There are reasons for me not go read it.
I am not sure whether it is still there in my computer, so please don't ask for it........
I have seen that analyst who comes on business channel, says that so and so stock is now fully valued,means very less scope of going up.So one need to sell it or bookprofit in it.
Some stock expert says it is undervalued and can be bought.
I have seen one fund house or FII's or brokerage house giving a overvalued call on certain stock and other will come out with a buy call......in next couple of days......Now why that is happening?When one says it is overvalued why other is saying undervalued?
This gives the answer itself....there are different parametres to look at the valuations and all have different way to analyse it.One find overvalued other find undervalue....why so , because the growth one is able to see, other is not able to see.Or in other words,what one has got the firsthand information after meeting the management, other is not having that and hence one ends up saying it is overvalued and other end up saying it is undervalued........
Well, if there is not a big difference between two opinion then it is OK but when one says is totally opposite to what other say then whom to believe.
Valuation is not a constant thing.It keeps on changing,everyhour, everday , everyweek, everymonth or even everyyear.
A Co, say Aban Llyod, was overvalued in Jan 2009 and need to be sold with so big of debt and I was reading sell call from each and every house and in just one go......Crude started going up....valuation become cheap......look at the 52 week lows and 52 week high........of Aban Llyod....
Just a big order for a Co and stock become CHEAP......one product becomes successful and stock become undervalued.....
Valuation is a constantly changing thing.A stock can remain overvalued or fullyvalued for 2-3 yrs or even 4-5 yrs and suddenly the fortune changes and stock becomes darling and everyone wants to buy it......There are innumerable example like that in Indian Stock market as well in International market.
Valuation depends on how the economy is faring, how the Cos product is doing, what are the future potential of the Cos product,what world will need, how will be the demand,will perticular co will get beniffited from that and over and above that How market is doing.......there are so much of things to be taken care of that it is impossible to say anything on valuation front at anytime unless you have firsthand report.....on any Co.
Nestle was looking costly at 1600 to Dr Vikas and now at 2500 he is asking me whether it is a buy or not.
So at 1600 Nestle was overvalued and at 2500 it is not?Well that depends on how one thinks.If someone think that product will do good and has great future , one can definately go ahead and buy it at even this rate.
There is P/E ratio to decide.People looks at P/E .....sector p/e and see if that stock has lower p/e then other peers gr.....but that is also always not a great thing to do.Market can keep certain stock undervalued for a longer period of time and one can left with that stock not moving at all for entire whole bull run.......
Valuation is also related with demand and supply.If demand is more and supply is less then the stock can soar to great highs....irrespective of earnings.....
I have seen people (read expert) selling stocks at 3-5 times return and that stock went on to give 20-30 times return..............so noone can say that a stock is overvalued or undervalued......I think it is impossible to opine on that parametres.....
Have you ever met with a stock which when you see after 3-6 months or a year and you feel ,you missed it?These thing should have happened with each and everyone.I have no doubt about it.
Now why you were not able to buy it at that time ?What was the reason at that time that you missed such a great stock and ended up with something else which may be a laggard in your portfolio?Because at that time you were not able to see what is there in that stock and hence you didn't buy and those who were able to see bought it and making hay......
If the fundmanagers , analyst and some experts are so great in telling whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued then why their clients or funds Nav is still underpeforming even with the average return of market?
If they are great teller then they should show better return then the market gives but that is not the case........Very less funds gives above average return then market and very less gives same return like market .....
What is value then?Value is brand, value is management,value is growth, Value is foreseeing .....like when I wrote on SNL Bearing Ltd......it is NRB bearing managed Co .....which is showing positive bottomline.....and available at just Rs 11!Can one imagine a NRB Bearing run Co have such a less value? that is VALUE........Like I wrote on Yashraj Containeurs Ltd......great product and great clientele list and great earning .....and stock at 3-4 p/e?That is value.......and mind well, after doing all these market may not give the thumbs up to that stock...and one has to wait for longer period untill others find out.....
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
SNL Bulk Deal.......
Freinds,
I saw a Bulk Deal on bsesite for SNLBearing.....
23/12/2009 505827 SNL Bearings SHAREKHAN LTD A/C Diversified Equity B 37000 18.50
So from some 41750 shares traded ,37000 shares went to an a/c of Diversified Equity fund with Sharekhan.....Seems someone is buying for LT.....
One of the reader named Deb was asking me what about those stocks which are not running and standing still or have gone down after my recomendation.
Well, I want to give answer to all here so that no one has any question left in future.Though I have been writing giving reasons what happens and what needs to be done....but seems followers are not reading me properly ......it means they just read my post casually....just for the sake of reading other wise no one should be able to end up asking some question which are not supposed to be asked......
Anyway, now let me come to the point......
It is obvious that
1)Not all stocks that I recomend is going to run immidiately.
2)Not all will give multibagger returns.
3)Not all will run in this Bull Run...
4)Some will also underform
5)Some will also give negative returns.....
6) Some will give average return....
Now one will look at this list ,the negative list is bigger then Positive.....
Hence forward keep this point in mind before buying any stock that I recomend here.
I am at all not responsible for any negative return or no profit......If anyone feels at anytime that after buying stocks , it is not worth holding , he should sell it without letting me know......or need not ask me whether it is still a hold or not.......Its yours money and your money is at stake ......hence the decision should also be yours......when one should sell and what should be done , I have discussed in detail .....
What I am doing here is just pointing out some undiscovered stocks.....that's all.........
It is obvious that no all picks can give multibagger return.What I write here is stocks which has potential to become multibagger.....and when I say potential,means there is a story in it, and it may comeout good or maynot........that RISK will remain always...........
I am at all not responsible for any loss or profit of any readers who buys or sells reading my calls......As whatever PROFIT they make from my calls is theirs, so is the LOSS they make from my calls........
I saw a Bulk Deal on bsesite for SNLBearing.....
23/12/2009 505827 SNL Bearings SHAREKHAN LTD A/C Diversified Equity B 37000 18.50
So from some 41750 shares traded ,37000 shares went to an a/c of Diversified Equity fund with Sharekhan.....Seems someone is buying for LT.....
One of the reader named Deb was asking me what about those stocks which are not running and standing still or have gone down after my recomendation.
Well, I want to give answer to all here so that no one has any question left in future.Though I have been writing giving reasons what happens and what needs to be done....but seems followers are not reading me properly ......it means they just read my post casually....just for the sake of reading other wise no one should be able to end up asking some question which are not supposed to be asked......
Anyway, now let me come to the point......
It is obvious that
1)Not all stocks that I recomend is going to run immidiately.
2)Not all will give multibagger returns.
3)Not all will run in this Bull Run...
4)Some will also underform
5)Some will also give negative returns.....
6) Some will give average return....
Now one will look at this list ,the negative list is bigger then Positive.....
Hence forward keep this point in mind before buying any stock that I recomend here.
I am at all not responsible for any negative return or no profit......If anyone feels at anytime that after buying stocks , it is not worth holding , he should sell it without letting me know......or need not ask me whether it is still a hold or not.......Its yours money and your money is at stake ......hence the decision should also be yours......when one should sell and what should be done , I have discussed in detail .....
What I am doing here is just pointing out some undiscovered stocks.....that's all.........
It is obvious that no all picks can give multibagger return.What I write here is stocks which has potential to become multibagger.....and when I say potential,means there is a story in it, and it may comeout good or maynot........that RISK will remain always...........
I am at all not responsible for any loss or profit of any readers who buys or sells reading my calls......As whatever PROFIT they make from my calls is theirs, so is the LOSS they make from my calls........
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Stocks recomended in past......
Friends,
I remember I recomended Gensys Int at around 100 which has doubled at 201.
I use to recomend time and again Jyoti Ltd around 35-42 range.It was inching up slowly since many days and suddenly it went for 20% UC yesterday to close at 62.75.....
Jyoti Ltd has been my favourite pick and I have recomended it many times here.Looking still good and can be bought in small quantity now and add on dips....
I have been recomending EPC Ind along with Rungta Irrigation.EPC Ind is looking good and promoters are buying big from the open market.Just saw today in ET that Schroder Credit has bought 9,16,667 shares along with Credit Renaissence 1,83,333 shares .....on 11 th Dec....
EPC ind is still looking good at 48......
There is one stock named ASM Technology at 28 which is looking good to me.
Ennore Coke recomended here at 43 along with PAE at 31 has been firing all cylinders......Ennore Coke after making a high of 64 corrected to 51 and now again back to 60 and in circuits.So is PAE....
Both have a long way to go......
I recomended SNL Bearing Ltd at just Rs 11 here and it is making new highs at 19.84 ....and looking good still to me.....
I have been recomending Laffans Petro since long and has been my favourite since my mmb days.Laffans has signed MOU with M/s HUNTSMAN CORPORATION, SINGAPORE PTE LTD which is going to be a trigger for growth for Laffans Petro in future.This MOU will do whole lot of good for this Co located in Gujarat.
Offlate I have been tracking Rasandik Eng and looking good to me at around this level or even 4-7 points up.
The best thing is when a stock is found ,one need to first take a token entry at the prevailing rate and then wait for any correction.But don't miss the entry as it may happen sometimes that stock runsup and we totally lose opportunity to buy it at all........
So first buy token quantity and then have a look and then take a plunge in it after due diligence....We don't know which is going to be a multibagger....like I just saw that Splash Media was only Rs .35 in Jan 09 and now it is Rs.535 in Dec 09....means 15 times return in a complete 1 year.....that is enormous by any standard.....
Who says one cannot get big return .....in stock market......there is nothing impossible in market ...everything is possible.....Remember this FOREVER.....
I remember I recomended Gensys Int at around 100 which has doubled at 201.
I use to recomend time and again Jyoti Ltd around 35-42 range.It was inching up slowly since many days and suddenly it went for 20% UC yesterday to close at 62.75.....
Jyoti Ltd has been my favourite pick and I have recomended it many times here.Looking still good and can be bought in small quantity now and add on dips....
I have been recomending EPC Ind along with Rungta Irrigation.EPC Ind is looking good and promoters are buying big from the open market.Just saw today in ET that Schroder Credit has bought 9,16,667 shares along with Credit Renaissence 1,83,333 shares .....on 11 th Dec....
EPC ind is still looking good at 48......
There is one stock named ASM Technology at 28 which is looking good to me.
Ennore Coke recomended here at 43 along with PAE at 31 has been firing all cylinders......Ennore Coke after making a high of 64 corrected to 51 and now again back to 60 and in circuits.So is PAE....
Both have a long way to go......
I recomended SNL Bearing Ltd at just Rs 11 here and it is making new highs at 19.84 ....and looking good still to me.....
I have been recomending Laffans Petro since long and has been my favourite since my mmb days.Laffans has signed MOU with M/s HUNTSMAN CORPORATION, SINGAPORE PTE LTD which is going to be a trigger for growth for Laffans Petro in future.This MOU will do whole lot of good for this Co located in Gujarat.
Offlate I have been tracking Rasandik Eng and looking good to me at around this level or even 4-7 points up.
The best thing is when a stock is found ,one need to first take a token entry at the prevailing rate and then wait for any correction.But don't miss the entry as it may happen sometimes that stock runsup and we totally lose opportunity to buy it at all........
So first buy token quantity and then have a look and then take a plunge in it after due diligence....We don't know which is going to be a multibagger....like I just saw that Splash Media was only Rs .35 in Jan 09 and now it is Rs.535 in Dec 09....means 15 times return in a complete 1 year.....that is enormous by any standard.....
Who says one cannot get big return .....in stock market......there is nothing impossible in market ...everything is possible.....Remember this FOREVER.....
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