Sunday, January 3, 2010

From Monday........

Market will open from 9 am instead of 10 am.
It has always been difficult to predict the range of market and course of market.Buffet invest for 20-50 yrs.RJ invest for 3-5 yrs.
FII's brought in 80,000 cr means almost $17 billion this year which is far greater then they sold in 2008 which was $ 11bn.That is almost over by 60% this year.Means whatever they sold they bought it back and invested more and still market has not made a new high.The reason is the retail participation is still not there otherwise market should have crossed 21k by now.
That is what I use to write here and that is, we are not in a state of euphoria.
Market was up by 80% and that is the biggest gain in last 18 yrs of Indian stock market.Now from here to where?
I have written many times here that we may touch 19k this year, means 2009 and may even touch 21k....but that didn't happen.But overall market remained steady in last 2 months defying all apprehension showed by analyst.
This year, in 2010 , market will definately cross the 21k all time high and will go beyond that proving all analyst wrong.I remember I also wrote that we can touch even 31k by end 2010.
Let us see what happens now in 2010.But we can see 14700 on lower scale and 27000 to 29,000 on higher scale in this year itself and as I wrote we should and will never see 12k again this year and following years. This range is hypothetical.14700 is in worst case scenario and we may even not see 14700 at all...

Market will give knee jerks and will shatter your confidence this year as well.The scenario will become such that now market is gone but those who will buy at that time will come out winner.Take a Vow that we will never play in F&O.Leave it for big players.....
2008 is gone and we are not going to see it again.
If export has started picking up, shows that world economy is coming back on track.I just read in BS that China's Industrial production has again started booming and their economy will grow again at 9% and that will be very good sign.I have seen analyst becoming sceptic on Chinese economy and giving calls that China is a bubble.They give the reason that every economy running at this scorching pace can't sustain that long but China is proving them wrong time and again.Now after 5-10 yrs or 15 yrs if Chinese economy becomes bubble and burst , will that make sense?Why to worry about 5-10-15 yrs down the line.....that is something very wishful thinking. Iwill never be able to understand analyst mind or peoples mind that they start talking of Bubble just went a past bubble has burst in near past.....We have seen 2008 a bubble bursting of Subprime Mortagage...we are not even a year over it if we take Mar 09 low then how analyst and so called experts start talking of another bubble?But those who wants to talk negative and see negative...we can't do anything to them....We have seen in recent past the Dubai fisaco.World market tanked and so did our but within a week the world market and our market were back to normal.....that is the resilience we are seeing in now in world economy.This every analyst needs to understand that ....before speaking for market....

I also believe that China is not a bubble and their economy will continue to prosper and that will help world economy as well.
Coming back to India, as I have written many times here,that lots of thing still to be done that there is no way, we can underperform.Money will keep on pouring in from overseas and then the retail participation has still not come.Even the local savings money has not started coming in market.These will lead to higher sensex.
I have no doubt about it.
The real crux here is one needs to be able to look at market and should be able to judge how market will be.If one is sceptic then even though he has multibagger in hand he will sold it out cheaply and that is not a good scenario in market.One need to try and get the maximum return from the stock where one holds so that it can make up of stock giving negative returns and laggards in portfolio.
Merely finding a multibagger is not enough.One should be able to hold on to that stock and that is only possible if one is able to read the market.I still stick to my view that holding stocks is the best way to maximise the profit.Selling at 10-20% profit and changing stocks makes no sense.


  1. Hi Rajeev,
    I can see by your posts that you have so much charged after blog viewer ship crossed 1 lac.
    Please keep it up. As one of blogger said that he has kept your blog as his home-page, I also check your blog as first thing when i log on net.
    And my eyes just lit up after seeing your new post.
    Its just amazing that you come up with so many interesting and always new posts.
    Please keep it up.
    With Regards,

  2. Vikas,
    My writing has nothing to do with viewer ship crossing 1 lac.
    It depends on Mood.How I am personally feeeling.The inner feeling.
    And after that I need to have something coming in mind to write.
    As you must have seen, I have not written any nonsense anytime, nor I write casually.Therefore I also expect my readers not to read my post casually.Each and every word has its weightage......every replies in comments has something...

  3. Dear Mr Rajeev

    My heartiest congrats for your
    gretest achivement i hope the viewer ship will cross 10 Lac by 2010 end. Thanks for your valuable share advice Keep it up.

  4. Dear Rajeev

    In your recent advice the following
    stocks are missing, i want to
    khow whether the following stocks
    are still buy
    1) KPIT Kummins
    2) Madukon Projets
    3) Petron Engineering
    4) SRF
    5) Navin
    6) Torrent Power

    waiting for your response

  5. Nirash,
    They are looking good still

  6. I want to invest Heidelberg Cement
    and Prism Cement, so Called Anlaysist are against investing the cement stock in 2010 Due to over capacity in southern region and price pressure, Iam confused
    can you please help me out

  7. nirash,
    Cement will do good this year....that is my view , I am prove wrong...

  8. Hi Rajeev, got your point.
    As per your suggestion and after thinking a lot, I purchased Navin fluoro at 300. Recently i came across SRF and it looks great investment for me. But i am in dilemma whether to add SRF to my portfolio or not. I though a lot, but SRF looks like a tempting investment. I know final decision is mine one. But can you help?
    With Regards,

  9. Vikas,
    SRF ltd is a buy at this rate ....according to my view...