Rico Auto and Super Spinning........

Friends,
First of all let me write that I am thankful to all those readers who has kept faith in me and I am indebted by them.
I remember I recomended Rico Auto and Super Spinning time and again though I have not discussed Super Spinning in detail but I have discussed Rico Auto in details why it was a buy at around 23.
Rico Auto has come down from 23 -24 level to abysmal low level of 10 and so has Super Spinning.
Now what I am going to disclose today is a name of a very veteran investor and a very excellent investor who can wait for his stocks to go up for 5 yrs and even more.I adore him for his investing style and he is a master and a chela of then master investor named Manu Manek.
He has a penchant for cement stocks like Madras Cement and also have a liking for Auto Ancialliary Co like Motherson Sumi , Rane gr and also have a liking for Laxmi gr .He was a Co-owner of brokerage gr before it was sold recently.
I would like all my readers to look at SHP of both this Co and one should be able to read his name and I hope someone come out with his name and write it here.
It is all about observing and nothing else.It is my passion and hence I devote my entire focus on what is going on in market and who is playing with what stocks.I can say it is all at my tip of my fingure.
With commodities going down and Oil going down,Rico Auto will give excellent return in LT,like say, 3-5 yrs from now.Rico Auto has been beaten down for a long time due to earning not coming good but happy days should come for both Super Spinning and Rico Auto .Both the stocks can take time and even test your patience but hold it.Don;t look at everyday price after buying.
Both are fundamentally excellent Cos and both should flourish in time to come.I can't say when but both will give excellent returns.Well, I can't guarentee you , but I am confident for both.
Well, as I said earlier, I can't gaurantee you anything but I hope this is a good chance to lappup stocks like this when chips are down...........

An Apology...

Friends,
I am feeling very very bad that all stocks are going down and more and more bad news are coming on the market and that is taking toll on smallcaps and midcaps.
All the stocks recomended here by me are coming down and down and readers are feeling the pinch of it and I too am feeling the pinch as well.No one likes to see wealth getting distructed and PF showing RED daily and I am also one of them.
I have seen recently that many of my calls has gone abysmaly low and taking out more then 50% of the buying price.Friends remember one thing, what I am doing here is looking at the sector, reading the annoucement, reading the sales, reading any buybacks annoucement etc etc and give a call here.
No way I can able to talk with management or visit a Co plant and then give a call.You all know what I analyse and how I analyse and give a call and when chips are down the stock keeps on going down and down.
One of the analyst has written in recently that Sujana Towers is a SELL as there is nothing in the Co.Allied Digital is a SELL as there is nothing in the Co and the CBI raid has happened and hence don't buy them but actually SELL them.
He maybe right he may be wrong.That is why I always write that please do the Due Diligence before buying.
Whenever the market will take turn , it will be first the large caps that will move and then the midcaps and smallcaps and it is going to take time for Mid/Small cap to move.
I have tried my best to discuss and analyse stocks and then put it here but still I had gone wrong in many of my picks in huge way.I have gone wrong also in big way in predicting the course of the market as well.
I feel bad that my picks are going down and down and I have no answer when readers ask me about it what to do.Sometimes I feel that I need to stop writing here as many of the subjects I write on here has become controversial.I donno, how long I will be able to write here if world market and Indian market is going to behave like these then I think there will be nothing more for me to write.
I know I have a caption at the top of my blog which says that DD is a must and I am not responsible for anything , but I still take the moral responsibilty in the sense that if when my readers are losing money , I can't come out and say ruthlessly that I am not responsible for anything.
I know time will come and market will make a comeback but when I see wealth deteriorating of my readers I too feel dejected.I would like to see each and every readers of my blog making something from market.

LOKPAL OR JOKEPAL Bill by Congress

Friends,
I got some inner sight of Lokpal Bill that Congress drafted and I have taken it from somewhere else so please double check it and write it here if it wrong.

1. A whislteblower will have to PROVE that what he claims is correct in court of law. The entire onus of proving what he says is correct lies on him.

2. If his charges - reports are found to be false - he will face JAIL TERM of 20 YEARs

 3. If his charges are true the culprit will be jailed for "WHOLE 2 YEARS"
See - how they are encouraging whistleblowers and discouraging criminals.

A person who will not be able to prove the charge will go to jail for 20 yrs and who is found guilty will go to jail for ONLY 2 YEARS?That is the Lokpal version Congress wants to bring in parliament and pass it?Is this a JOKEPAL bill or what?
I was hearing one of the spoke person of Congress speaking about Anna Hazare that how he can speak against corruption when he himself is a corrupt person? I ask, then for what the Congress is waiting for?If Anna Hazare is corrupt then why don't government held him under that charge and put him in JAIL?
I have been hearing the debates on TimesNow and the people who speaks against Anna Hazare says that this is a democratic country and Anna Hazare can't dictate the term to the government, which is elected by people and everything should be under Law.But my question is, what is done under Law ?If Law prevails then how culprits like Kalamadi and A Raja were arrested so late?
Is government working under any LAW or Constitution?
It is not working under LAW and that is why the movement by Anna Hazare..........
If any politicians are abiding according to the LAW, where was the need for Anna Hazare to come out to fight against government?But as there is no LAW prevailing in our country , especially for Politicians that is why Anna Hazare has to come out ......It is that SIMPLE.......
People of India needs to tell the government , that PLEASE DON'T TALK OF ANY LAW......THERE IS NO LAW PREVAILING IN INDIA.....
If Law prevails then how 2G, 3G, S-Band  and Karnataka mining scam came out?
Which law Congress is talking of?Is there any law in our country?Over and above that there is no Laws for politicians.They keeps on saying we were elected by the people and hence they can do whatever they wants   and still they can go untouched and people can say nothing and do nothing besides looking at it helplessly.........because people made the MISTAKE OF ELECTING THEM......LOL......Congress says to the people of India.....Keep QUITE....we are elected by YOU and hence you the people of India needs to abide by the LAW and CONSTITUTION AND if we the elected people do anything wrong we, the people of India, are not suppose to do anything..........and if we , the people of India, wants to do anything that should be under LAW!

Congress feels that as people has elected them they can do whatever they can under the name of Law and Constitution but why the same Law and Constitution do not apply for Politicians?
What needs to be done is , after putting the Scansters in jail , government needs to see that the money also comes back to the people.....that is the most important part of the movement.It is not only about sending the culprits to JAIL but also making SURE THAT MONEY SHIPONED OUT FROM SCAMS ARE BROUGHT BACK TO THE PEOPLE OF INDIA.

Anna Hazare is back.....

Friends,
I have been viewing the Indian Channel and going through all those debates that are taking place regarding the movement against corruption.
Today here in morning , means in evening in India I saw HM, Mr Chidambaram giving lectures on section 144 and 103 and then 106 etc etc in parliament and what are the rules and what are the meaning of it.
I don't understand why there is a debate on section 144, 103, 106 in parliament.
This is a crusade against CORRUPTION.This movement is as important as the FREEDOM movement our Father Of Nation Gandhiji started against Britishers.
Gandhiji broke the Laws to get the FREEDOM for India and that is what Annaji is doing then why there is so much of debates on section 144?Let government do what they wants to do.They want ot arrest Annaji.Let them do that.With each arrest and each day the awakening will increase.
The movement starts from breaking the LAW.If the law is not broken how the movement will go further?I mean to say, if the government is not listening to what needs to be done after repeated calls and still they do not listen then breaking the LAWS becomes the only alternative.

When Annaji first went for fast in April and UPA decided to bring in the Lokpal Bill in the next parliament session, Annaji said at that time , that if government will not includes certain rules, he will fight again in August.At that time, UPA government should have understood that after 4 months the euphoria will die down and Anna Hazare will not be able to do anything which he did in April and let me tell you here that I was also not sure whether Annaji will again come out to fight for the Lokpal Bill.I was apprehensive about the movement again getting started as that is a herculein task to start a work once stopped but Annaji, I must salute you for coming back and taking the fight to NEXT LEVEL.

I from here join with Annaji  for this fight against corruption.Long Live Anna Hazare.Keep it up.We are with you and whole India is with you and I wish more and more people join this movement and fail all the attempts of government to make this Jan Lokpal Bill just a paper bill.
This is not the dictatorship of Anna Hazare but it is actually the dictatorship of government who wants to make the Jan Lokpal bill a farce.They wants to make  the bill such that it has no legs and many loopholes so that politicians can get away with it easily and that is what Annaji is trying to make sure that the culprit needs to be puinished and send to jail.

The scams in last year were of ,I can say horrible type.No scam were less then Rs 30,000-40,000 cr and the anamoly was such that none of the politicians were ASHAMED  of their wrong doing.Government do not wants to do anything with those money lying in Swiss Bank and I have got a mail, where  Wikileaks is showing ,what the politicians and scamsters has got in Swiss Bank.These money are so huge that it matches with the figure that came from other sources.
Coming back to Annaji's crusade , I must say that the support was spontaneous and huge and I wish the tempo do not dies down so easily untill the GOAL is achieved.

Actually there is no FEAR in any politicians and that is the real culprit.The fear of doing wrong and getting punishment will do a whole load of good.The corruption has spread to such a level that the time was ripe for someone to come out and fight for it and that was done by a retired soldier named Anna Hazare and I am not at all amazed by that because only a fighter can do it.Annaji has fought many battles at the front and hence he has got the spirit to take fight in enemies camp.He knows exactly what his GOAL is and how he is  going to do it.He is very clear in his mind what he is upto and how he will take the battle to the next level.

This is a FIGHT .Let everyone understand this.This is a FIGHT for the being.This is the fight for living hassle free life.This is a fight for the existance.This is the fight for the Future Generation.This is the fight for India's PRIDE WORLD OVER.Make no mistake.This is a Crusade.This is the crusade for the poor people of India.This is the fight for people who are deprived from the right to have Food, Water and a house.Those so called middleclass people who has good salary and DA which keeps on rising with infaltion do not feel the PINCH but those poor people who lives on daily wages are the real sufferors.It is a pity that the same middle class has gone through this tormoils of life and still they do not understand the situtaion of poor people.

Let me take an example.Middle class person who do a JOB either a government JOB or Bank Job or working in a MNC or any Indian Co , they gets CL, PL, SL, and over and above that Vacation leave with pay.The salary increases with the DA as inflation goes up then increment comes every year and may be BONUS .Are these people ready to raise the salary of their servants working at their house?Do they give any weekly OFF for 1 day as we get every Sunday?Do they give paid SL or CL or PL to their servants?Are servants not human being?They are also not working for you and do work when you are not at home?How many pay for the illness of servants working at their house?
We buy big house from smaller one.We buy cars from scooters.I know, we justify saying , we have got the education and we have worked hard for that.Agreed you worked hard but you got the oppertunity to do that.One living in a hut, zoopadpatti , where their parents use to quarrel every night, father a drunkard, in such a situation how one will be able to do anything.
I am not saying , one need to give eveything to the servants but we need to understand their position.I have some people saying , if we give money to them they will drink and waste it.I ask, don't we do it that way?
Have a big heart.Do something for those who are working for you at home as servants.Help their children for education.Help them for illness.This will give you big satisfaction.Inner satisfaction which you will never be able to find while buying Cars , or A/C's etc......just do it and see what happens to your innerself.You will feel peace of mind.
If you are in good state of LIFE then you are a GOD CHOSEN CHILD  and hence the onus on you becomes more to help those poor people who are not that much fortunate.God has chosen you and gave you more then others and had put faith in you that you will help who is not so fortunate as you are.But we miss that oppertunity and become so shallow that we feel that it is we who has got all success by ourselves.But that is a grave mistake we do.We think of ourselves only and our family.Sometime it is ONLY US and not even our family.
Anyway, coming back to the movment, this movement is equally important for India as was before  1947.
I wish all luck and if India is going to be a corruption FREE country then I wish Anna stays there to see that it is done perfectly.

Don't buy anything now.....

Friends,
That is what I would suggest as of now.Don't buy anything now.
I know readers wants to have my view in present sitution and that is why I am here to write that let market settle down first because when stocks start going down there is no bottom and people are selling to save whatever money they can save and hence if a stock is available cheap now it can drift further more.
I already wrote in my last post that things are dicy in global context and as FII's are selling, market is not going to come back in hurry as rightly said by RJ in his last interview.
I am sure this is not a 2008 type situation but still I can go horribly wrong.
If the stocks you are holding are good with fundamentals then hold them.It will run when its time will come.Don't panic.Selling in panic makes no sense.One invariably make mistakes in such situation.

S&P downgrades US rating.............

Friends,
I know my readers are eagerly awaiting my view on recent downgrade of US from AAA to AA+.
I was not writing not because I was shocked by the carnage in local as well as Int market.Actually I was not doing good with my ownself and when I have no mood to write I don't write for the sake of writing.
The downgarde rating by S&P has craeted a havoc in US market and in the world all over.
I was just listening to the President of S&P, Deven Sharma, who  had an interview on CNBC here and what reason he was giving for the downgrade.
The main concerns he was pointing out was, the Internal Debt of USA was not going to come down by 2014 or by 2020.According to the projection made by US herself, the Debt will rise to $14.3 tr from $10 tr in 2014 and in 2020 it will be $20 tr which will be double from hereon.
So even after the US decided to take steps to trim down the expenses the Debt will keep on rising.
What other thing I was able to gather while watching the CNBC is the spending of US FED.
Here are the statistic.

	Function	-yr 2011 +yr
	Total Spending	$6.2 trillion
	Pensions	$1.0 trillion
	Health Care	$1.1 trillion
	Education	$0.9 trillion
	Defense	$1.0 trillion
	Welfare	$0.7 trillion

Here is one more news on Health Care spending.

"All health care spending in the United States is projected to grow at an annual average rate of 5.8 percent for the period 2010 through 2020, 1.1 percentage points faster than expected growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By 2020, health care spending is projected to be 19.8 percent of GDP, nearly one-fifth of economic output, increasing from 17.6 percent in 2010. All health care spending will reach $4.64 trillion in 2020, nearly half of which will come from government sources."

So here again my analysis come to work.Prez needs to look at the Medical spending.That was my first concern for the high spending.
$1 tr for Medical care for Senior Citizen is too high for any Country which is 18% of the total spending.I don't want to cut down the medical treatment for Senior Citizen , but I want the expenses , the cost to get trimmed down.
In my last post I gave examples how much is the cost for treatment for surgery of Knee operation or bypassurgery and for even taking care of a small Abscess.
The US has to look at this futures of Medical Treatment that is dearing the US $1 tr everyyear now and by 2020 it will be $4 tr which is 400% more then now in 10 yrs down the line.
So if we compare the amount of  Medical expenses even now at $1 tr , it is as big as Indian Economy.
No way a country can come to reduce the expenses without trimming down the Medical cost which is eating 20% of the budget.
US will have to break the vicious circle of the Medical System.That is the only way the debt will reduce in future.
Like I said in last post, even 50% of the cost is taken care of, though it is still on higher side it will make a huge difference in government spending.That is the only region US can do something.Break the Medical chain.
$92,000 for a Knee surgery! Wow! I can't believe that.
Well, Deven Sharma was saying that by downgrading the credit of US , it doesn't say , US will default.It is just saying about the risk.
If Insurance Cos are making huge profit then it is obvious that they are paying less and getting more.It is a simple maths and when Co is making huge profit it means the profit is coming from where the margin is BIG.
I feel that if the Health cost comes down in US then naturally the health Insurance will also cost less and hence if the premium is less more people can afford to go for it and that way health Insurance Co can make up with the loss of premium.
I am confident that US has the ability to take care of such debts and they will take measures to do it.The players or market has reacted more negatively on the rating and I feel that there need not to panic.Heaven is not going to fall on earth with the downgrade.This is not a 2008 type situation.
That is my view and I may go wrong but that is what I am seeing.I am not seeing the repeat of 2008 as of now.Retail participation is at low , there is no over leaverage, the return in equites in US is higher then the bonds.These all take me to conclude that this was just a reaction of downgarde of S&P which I feel is overtly done.
I know, many there in India do not like my taking side of US but when I have to write on global economy and market then I have to write on US as well.Jab US ko zukam hota hai sari duniya to sardi ho jati hai.If US gets cold the whole world gets cold.........One can never ignore US...we like it or not.......US comsumes 33% of world production.If US falls everything falls.

I don't think CHINA will ever be able to take place of US in World.

But in the end, after reading the datas, I will write that my calculation come out correct that Medical Bill is the biggest spender of US Budget and that needs to taken care of.

DON'T PANIC................This downgrade do not say that US has defaulted nor it says that US will become  bankrupt next year....

I agree that the situation on the horizen is not favourable.The Europe crisis is also looming large on global growth.The higher interest rate in India is denting growth of our economy.Tonnes of grains is lying idle in goddowns.The real reason is the supply is less and demand ios more and in that circumstances the govrenment needs to unleash the grains locked in the goddown but instead of doing that RBI keeps on increasing the Repo rate .This is going to hinder the growth and hence we are seeing the GDP projection going down from 8 to 7.5 .
There will be huge downside today in morning .Market should open with a big gap down as Dow has been down by over 600 points which is the higest points after Lehman Brs debacle.
The strategy one can follow is either one needs to be on sidelines and observe from the fence or sell now and buy at lower levels.
The retail participation is almost NIL and the stocks are going down on a low Vol as there are no buyers and when there are no buyers the prices tends to go down.
It may take 3 to 6 months for market to stabilize as domestically also we are cornered by all type of problem like Corruptions and scams.

Actually the downgrading from S&P should be taken positively by USA.Ofcourse S&P has made wrong assessment in 2007/2008 for Finance Co giving AAA rating and thereby creating the biggest meltdown of housing crisis in US but then looks like S&P has learned something from it as the reason given for the downgrade by Deven Sharma, the president of S&P on CNBC is very good to understand.
Prez should not get disturb by such things but actually work on it.If the Debt is going to rise from $10 tr now to $14 tr in 2014 and $20 tr by 2020 then that is not a good things for any country.So what S&P is saying is that the plan passed by the seneta is not good enough to bring down the deficit to normal level as it will keep on rising.
I heard Obama coming on TV to say that whatever downgrade any rating agency gives, US will remain AAA all the time.It was looking like Obama was hurt and so was Fin sec of state.
But when one look at the reason given by S&P, the deficit is not coming down but actually going up even after the measure to be taken decided , then that is a emergency call for Washington.The downgrade says that don't be satisfied by the outcome.You have not done enough for the deficit.
I keep on adding things here but as things come up to my mind I have to write it down for my readers.When my mind reads and after that thinks on it and what comes up is the analysis of the things I was reading or hearing.
Warren Buffet , the astute investor also didn't like the downgrade.He said, S&P should not forget that US has got the printing press and hence they can print as much dollars as they want.
That was a statement not given as a Economist but as an investor.
Whole world knows that WB has stake in Insurance Cos from Autos to Medical /healthcare Insurance and naturally he do not want the Medical treatment expenses to cut down otherwise the biggest pie of the profit will come down in his invesment Co.
Being a veteran investor, how he is not able to understand that printing dollars will make the dollar value down and the inflation will go up.
Warren Buffet is not concerned about the HIGH COST OF MEDICAL TREATMENT , he says we can print the money but the high profit margin that comes for the Insurance Co should remain as it is.
Friends, that is why in India also DII like LIC is always making huge profit.Insurance Co makes huge profit and the margin keeps on increasing with more people going for Insurance policy.The catch here is, how much LIC or for that matter any Insurance Co has to pay for Health Care of Life Insutrance policy.
Very negligible and  the rest premium goes as profit.Try to recall any person who went for LIC Life Insurance policy and how many person died before maturity and how much LIC has to pay before maturity of policy.
It is negligible.But these Insurance Agents will tell you all sorts of reason to buy the policy and we keep on paying premium for whole life and what comes in our hand is peanuts of return.
Though now some policies has shown good return and the main reason the salaried people buy these policy is, the Tax benifit.If they buy LIC Policy they have to pay less Tax .Otherwise there are other source of invesment that will give better returns then LIC.

To The Prez of USA.......Mr Barack Obama...An Appeal ..look at Medical System

Come Aug. 3, just who will get paid?
That's the new worry coursing throughout Washington as the contentious debt ceiling negotiations hurtle towards Aug. 2, the deadline beyond which President Barack Obama has warned that the government risks running short of money to pay all of its bills.
If the government has to choose which of its many obligations to honor and which to delay, who will it pay -- and, more importantly, who will it be forced to cut off?
Chinese bondholders? Social Security recipients? Medicaid beneficiaries? Veterans or FBI agents? With the clock ticking, it's no longer a theoretical question.
"We are running out of time," the president said in a statement at the White House Friday morning, little more than 12 hours after House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) was forced to call off a vote on his two-stage bill to trim $2.5 trillion from the budget in the face of stiff opposition from conservatives. The House finally passed the bill Friday evening, but it was quickly rejected by the Senate, where Democratic leaders are preparing their own rival bill. Congressional leaders and the White House are expected to spend much of the weekend wrangling over the competing proposals.
Treasury officials have drawn up emergency plans to prioritize payments if Congress doesn't vote to raise the government's borrowing ability above the current $14.3 trillion level before the maximum is hit. Without a deal, Treasury will have no choice but to start to triage between its many payments.
It won't be easy. The federal government makes payments to some 80 million individuals, companies and entities every month. While it takes in roughly a couple of hundred billion dollars every month in revenues, it spends tens of billions more. Some 40% of the current budget is paid with borrowed money.
"A de facto shutdown of the government is the real threat, not default, " says Greg Valliere, chief political strategist for the Potomac Research Group.
The key question is what date the government will hit the current debt ceiling. That's when it will no longer be able to borrow to make up the difference between revenues and expenditures. That's why Aug. 2 looms as a critical deadline -- a big Social Security payment is due the following day. In mid-July, analysts at Barclays Capital estimated that Treasury would have only $30 billion in cash on hand the morning of Aug. 3 — not enough to pay the $22 billion owed to Social Security recipients plus the additional $10 billion owed to others that day.
While higher-than-expected revenues in recent days could give the government a few more days wiggle room beyond that, the trajectory is clear.
"Without an agreement, the only question is when, not if, we'll run short of cash," says Jay Powell, a former Treasury official under President George H.W. Bush who has analyzed the issue in a report for the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington-based think tank. "There's just no way to pay for everything."
The triage could begin as early as Aug. 3. One possibility is that Treasury would simply pay the bills in the order they come in. But most observers believe such a move would be too politically risky; the administration is far more likely to make sure Social Security recipients and other politically-sensitive constituencies get paid.
So who would be the winners and who would be the losers?
Start with the math: between Aug. 3 and the end of the month, the Treasury will pocket an estimated $172 billion in taxes and other revenues, according to Powell. Over that same time, it has to shell out roughly $307 billion in payments for everything from Social Security and veterans' health care benefits to money for highway construction and federal workers' salaries.

House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, right, and House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy of Calif., left, listen as House …

Given that huge gap, the administration would essentially have to decide who to stiff, at least temporarily. Here's a look at how the choices could play out:

INTEREST ON US TREASURY BONDS: One thing on which all analysts agree: Holders of U.S. Treasury bonds, whether they are hedge fund managers in New York, retirees in Florida, or central bankers in China, will have first dibs on the remaining cash. They would get paid before all other creditors. That's the only way the U.S. can avoid a potentially disastrous default on its bonds and a serious downgrading of its credit rating.
So the first $29 billion—the estimated interest payments Treasury owes for the month of August--will go straight to bondholders. That would leave Uncle Sam with $143 billion in cash to cover another $278 billion in bills coming due in August.
SOCIAL SECURITY: Another point of accord between Democrats and Republicans: no one, but no one, wants to see TV screens fill with interviews of outraged seniors. Nor is anyone foolish enough to want to face the political consequences of cutting them off. So count on Social Security payments to take second priority when it comes to cutting checks.
For August, Uncle Sam owes Social Security payments of $49 billion. Draw that down, and Uncle Sam would have only $94 billion left to take care of the remaining $299 billion in expenditures.
MEDICARE/MEDICAID: Now throw in Uncle Sam's biggest health care obligations, Medicare and Medicaid. They will account for another $50 billion in August. Some analysts suggest Medicare would be fully funded, while the federal government could try to cut back on the Medicaid payments it owes to the states. But that remains to be seen.
If the administration does fund all of those health care obligations, then Uncle Sam would be down to only $44 billion in cash, to divide among the $179 billion needed in August to fund the military, social safety net expenditures such as unemployment insurance and housing aid for the poor—not to mention the entire rest of the federal government.
MILITARY SPENDING: Cutting off veterans or soldiers could be just as politically poisonous. However, those costs are relatively small: $2.9 billion each for Veterans Affairs programs and pay for active duty military members. They are likely to be paid.
The big expenditure comes in payments to the thousands of defense contractors across the country: Uncle Sam will owe defense contractors some $31.7 billion in the month of August. Many of them could see payments delayed until the crisis is resolved.
"Treasury will be able to prioritize within defense," says Daniel Clifton, who oversees policy research for Strategas Research Partners. "They build battleships that take years to complete; can they really argue they need that payment today?"
SOCIAL SAFETY NET: Juggling the programs aimed at supporting the unemployed, the poor and the sick will be tough; many could see cuts as the money runs out. Unemployment insurance benefits will cost some $12.8 billion for the month, while food aid for the poor would run to $9.3 billion. Housing aid programs for August would be another $6.7 billion. Grants for tuition and special education would run another $14 billion.
Fund all those programs, on top of Social Security, Medicare and interest payments, the BPC's Powell points out, and there would be virtually nothing left for the vast majority of defense spending. The Administration would have to choose: protect the safety net, and much of the military will go unfunded. Pay for defense, and many on the home front will suffer.
Moreover, whatever the choices the White House makes to divvy up the dollars between military and social spending, neither leaves much room for funding the rest of the government. Salaries and benefits alone for federal employee would cost another $14.2 billion in August — one reason many could find themselves furloughed if push comes to shove.
"There's just no way to avoid the pain," says the BPC's Powell. "If you opt to pay for Social Security, Medicare and a few other priorities, there's no money left over for a Justice Dept, a Defense Dept., an Energy Dept. or most other things."
Jane Sasseen is the editor-in-chief of politics and opinion at Yahoo! News.

My Comments:

I have been in USA for 3 yrs by now.I read from the above and from one of the daily newspaper, USAToday, that the Medicare is taking toll on FED.
People in US has got big longitivity of life and hence there are more older people and hence the payment of Social Security ( we call Pension in India) and Medicare expenses is on up as naturally the health problem is more in older people.
But as per the reports the biggest outchequer is Medicare and that is going to be obvious because the expense is so high in Medical field.
I just take some examples.
1) A Knee operation cost $93,000.
2) An open Heart surgery cost $1,50,000 to $2,00,000.
3)An Abscess cost $2000.

Now here is the catch.
For any Medicare or Medicad for senior citizen , government has to dole out the money as they have collected those money from these veterans when they worked for whole life but those money deducted were not enough or part of those money were used for Iraq war or fighting with Al Quida and finding Bin laden etc etc.
Now coming back to the Medical expenses, I think the cost of any medical treatment is highest in the world.From the above example we can say that it is on higher side.
If one has to go through to the Knee operation in India it should not cost more then $6000 and for open heart surgery it should not cost more then $12000.
For the abscess it should not cost more then $25 .
Now in US what happens is the cost is so high that with older population becoming larger and larger it will be very hard to fulfill the health cost.
So the thing that needs to be addressed is take a look at the medical charge for any treatment.Someoen is making a huge pie from this sector and they ought not need to have that bigger a pie for it but actually it is putting a huge burden on FED.
One old lady having a Knee surgery was having a headache and nurse came down and gave her 2 Tylenol and the cost they showed  was $18 .Now Tylenol cost is just 10 cent and the cost taken is $18.Now being an Old lady the who cost of treatment was taken care by FED through Medicare and that amt is doled out by FED .
So in simple word we can say that FED paid $18 for 2 Tylenol to the Hospital .Now this is just a simple example.If we take the example of that same old lady who went through the Knee operation which cost was $93,000 that also was paid by the FED.
I have an appeal for Prez Obama that first address the Medical system.Untill you do not address it the burden will keep on going up .
Now for looking where to cut the expenses and where not to White house experts knows it better.
But Mr Prez, if USA has to survive from debt crisi the whole Medical System needs the rehauling and other measures to trim down the expenses needs to take care of otherwise US will be on the verge of default.
Untill the disparity between the rest of the world and USA remains in the field of Medical Treatment nothing is going to help US.
A person working at a Minimum wage at $7.25/hr how will he be able to pay for Health Insurance?And in that case something happens , and when the Bill comes of thousands of dollars and he/she can't pay that bill, who pays for that?
Someone pays.Either FED or philanthropic institution.Somewhere the money is paid from and it is going in the pocket of medical system.

GTL Infra and GTL Ltd.....closed higher...

Friends,
Market reacted positive on offer of VIOM in GTL Infra Ltd as both the gr Co listed on browses closed almost 10% higher then previous day.
Heard that even some DII's has taken substaintial stake in it at this price and I feel that at Rs 15 and at Rs 74 for GTL Infra and GTL Ltd respectively both are looking good.
Market giving thumbs up to both the Co also says that my analysis was correct and am in line with what market thinks.

Viom Offers 7,500 cr to Acquire Rival GTL Infra .................

But GTL promoters are learnt to be eyeing valuations of over . 10,500 crore

JOJI THOMAS PHILIP & DEEPALI GUPTA NEW DELHI | MUMBAI

Telecom tower company Viom Networks has made a . 7,500-crore offer to buy out its competitor GTL Infrastructure, two executives directly aware of the development told ET. Talks are still on as there is a valuation mismatch — GTL promoters are learnt to be eyeing valuations of over . 10,500 crore (excluding its debt), the executives quoted above said. They also added that earlier round of talks, held during first week of July, had not made any headway as Viom was not keen on the merger option being proposed by bankers. Viom had made this offer to GTL last week.
SBI Capital Markets is advising Global Group, the parent company of GTL and GTL Infrastructure, on the possible sellout or stake dilution. Viom’s CEO Arun Kapoor declined to comment when asked specifically if the company had made a . 7,500-crore offer to GTL. Viom is 53% controlled by the Tatas. Kolkatabased Kanorias, founders of Srei, have 27% stake and foreign institutional investors hold the remaining 20%. The founder and promoter of Global Group Manoj Tirodkar refused to comment, but the company, in an e-mail reply to an ET query, said: “There are many aspirants who want to acquire our assets or partner with us. Viom has not entered into any formal discussion with us and hence the question of . 7,500 crore or . 10,500 crore being the offer value does not arise. The fact that players like Viom continue to approach and show their interest in GTL Infra is a tribute to the business that we have built.”
GTL’s debt is estimated to be around . 14,000 crore. The executives quoted above also clarified that Viom’s offer to GTL was subject to two conditions. First, the Global Group must reduce its debt in its tower arms to about . 7,500 crore post the restructuring. Viom is of the view that GTL cannot sustain a higher debt based on its current cash flows. Next, Viom has also said that its offer is valid only for a limited period as it shares the view that its competitor’s valuations will erode further if the company fails to meet its service level agreements with respect to its clients, they added.
But an executive close to GTL admitted that Viom had made ‘several offers’ while adding that a deal would be possible only if the offer was ‘valuable to the company and its lenders’. “GTL has also been approached by two private equity players and other options are available. Post the restructuring, GTL has already said that it can service debt of . 9,500 crore from its current cash flows,” this executive added. Since June 17, both GTL and GTL Infrastructure stocks have seen panic selling. The combined market cap of GTL and GTL Infra was . 6,154.89 crore as on June 17, 2011, but this has crashed by 67.35% to . 2009.6 crore as on July 27, 2011, wiping out about . 4,145.29 crore of investors’ wealth. GTL is also undergoing a corporate debt restructuring, which is slated to reduce its debt to around . 10,000 crore. Both GTL and GTL Infrastructure have roped in SBI Capital Markets as the advisor for their restructuring exercise and also to dispel investor concerns following the recent crash in its markets.
Deal Contours

My Comments:

I read the above news in ET today.
Now let us do the analysis.
GTL Infra Mcap is Rs 1316 as of now and GTL  Ltd Mcap is Rs 663 cr at the current market price.
I remember , someone asked me that whether GTL is a buy or not at the level then prevailing at Rs 140 as it has come down from Rs 462 and I very clearly said that even at Rs 40 I will not buy GTL Ltd.Those who went ahead and bought GTL Ltd must have made a loss.
Remember, when stock starts the downward journey, it keep on falling and perticularly when there is negative news with the fall it invariably fell way below our expectation.
Market always do like that.People keeps on thinking how much more it can fall and it keeps on going down and down defying all logic and when I replied to that query that was what in my mind.At that time who asked me this query, should have not liked my opinion but ultimately I was right.There is nothing to get dejected about it nor I am writing to prove myself.
Same thing happened with Satyam Computer and when it went below 20 it was time to buy but at that time no one listened to me.
Coming back to the above news, as I wrote the Mcap of GTL Infra is Rs 1316 cr and GTL Ltd is
Rs 663 cr and if we add both Mcap then also still it comes to around Rs 2000 cr.
Now VIOM is offering Rs 7500 for GTL Infra stake  but has certain condition like trimming down the debt from Rs 14,000 cr to half at Rs 7500 cr.
In the above text it is written that the debt can be reduced to Rs 10k cr but Mr.Manoj Tirodkar is asking for more valuation of Rs 10,000 cr instead of Rs 7500 cr and I think that will be difficult to be achieved in the present scenario.
So a Co having a Mcap of Rs 1316 cr is fetching Rs 7500 cr and hence this makes a deal worth over 5 times then present valuation barring reducing the debt to half.
Let us see how market reacts on this news and how much GTL Infra and GTL Ltd moves up.
Well, these type of picks are rather good for MF managers who are happy with 30-40% return  in a year or two.It may also happen that as I wrote the offer from VIOM of 5 times value then the present Mcap can give 100% return within a year or even more in 2 yrs as well.It all depends upon how the market is going to play the game.We can just take a call as per our comfort but looks like GTL Infra and GTL Ltd looks now on a healthy trajectory due to the asset of Telecome Towers it possess.
I would like to mention that SREI Infra is inching slowly and steadily up and is at Rs 48.The stock has gained Rs 10 from Rs 38 to Rs 48 when the market trend is down.
I have already wrote my liking for SREI Infra here time and again.


 

Open Offer for UTV coming at Rs 1000!

Walt Disney Offers to Buy Out UTV

Co wants to buy rest 49.56% stake & delist co in a deal that may be valued at 2,000 cr

OUR BUREAU NEW DELHI

Walt Disney Co plans to buy the rest of UTV Software Communications (UTV) it does not own and delist the company in a deal potentially valued at $454 million, or . 2,014 crore, as the US entertainment giant seeks to expand its presence in Bollywood, media and gaming.
The Burbank, California-based company, which owns 50.44% of UTV Software, said in a statement it would buy out public shareholders at a price not exceeding . 1,000 per share, an 11% premium to Monday’s stock closing price of . 901.8. The buyout will give Walt Disney control over five businesses. UTV Software, a holding company, makes and distributes movies, broadcasts a clutch of movie and entertainment channels, produces content for television and other digital media, and also has a presence in gaming. It operates through a number of subsidiaries, including movie production under UTV Motion Pictures, Indiagames, and UTV Global Broadcasting that broadcasts entertainment and movie channels. All these will become part of Walt Disney’s Indian unit once the transaction is completed.
Following the news of the buyout —one of the biggest in India’s media and entertainment industry—the company’s stock closed at . 950.45, or 5.39% higher, on the Bombay Stock Exchange on Tuesday.
Disney said it would also buy the 20%
stake held by promoter Rohinton (Ronnie) Screwvala and his associates if it garnered enough shares to delist the company. It, however, said delisting of a public company in India was a long process and could take several months to complete.
“Given the multiple stages and the nature of the process, a successful outcome is uncertain,” the company added. The entertainment behemoth also said if the delisting went through, Screwvala would cease to be the chairman and managing director of UTV Software Communications and become the managing director of The Walt Disney Company India, responsible for overseeing Indian businesses of the Disney Group. Shows Potential of Indian Market
Mahesh Samat, currently managing Disney’s assets in India, will become chief operating officer, reporting to Screwvala. The statement did not say what would happen if the response to the open offer was insufficient to delist the company. Disney’s statement merely said if the delisting was unsuccessful, it would “consider the full range of strategic options”.
Farokh Balsara, partner & national leader, media & entertainment practice, at consultant Ernst & Young, said the deal illustrated the potential of the Indian movie and entertainment market. “It is an endorsement of the potential international companies see in the robust Indian entertainment and media sector. UTV and Disney are similar businesses and the acquisition will help Disney synergise its Indian operations. These are some of the bets international companies are making in the fastgrowing Indian market.” India is the world's thirdlargest TV market trailing China and the US with nearly 138 million TV households, according to a March 2011 report by KPMG and industry lobby FICCI. The media and entertainment industry is likely to expand 14% annually until 2015, with segments such as TV, gaming and animation expected to outpace the industry growth, the report said.

My Comments:

I am glad to see that UTV is valued at Rs 1000 by Walt Disney and they want to delist at same price.

I wrote this FIGURE  wayback when I first wrote about this UTV around Rs 300.

What else I need to testify my experiance and analysis?I am not an MBA nor have any finance degree and still I am able to predict the true value of a stock much much early then the market discover it.
I am not writing anything more then this.............leave it to my readers to be the judge here......

Navin Flourine superb results ..........

Friends,
Navin Flourine has come out with superb results as per my expectation for June 2011.
The sales went up from 86 cr to 195 cr and the bottomline has zoomed from 15 cr to 60 cr giving a stupendous eps of 61 for qr ended June 2011 and remember Mar qr eps was 40 which was looking impossible to achieve in next qr , means June qr but Navin Flourine has done that .That is called exponential growth.
That growth is visible in India Glycols as well. From a loss of 7 cr the Co made a profit of 26 cr in June and that too with an Int outgo of 27 cr which is equal to 10 eps per qr and if imagine India Glycols becomes debt free what can be the EPS ?
That is the magic of Carbon Credit as I wrote recently that the flow of CC will start from this qr onwards.
The carbon credit sales has jumped from 14 cr to 65 cr.That is huge.
I am glad to see my assumption coming out true.That is I call forseeing things.I am not proudy of that, but that is what I want my readers to learn.
I again reiterate that same thing will happen in India Glycols which was lingering at 142 yesterday uptill 2 pm  and then a sudden jump from there to 165 odd and is still holding that level.
I am also confident that same thing like Navin Flourine will happen in India Glycols.They will put more sales on CC in future as they are striving for going green.
I expect the results of India Glycols will keep surprising market like Navin Flourine.
Yashraj Cont today closed at 45 giving a 60% return in 4 days.
IFB Ind closed positive at 141 and India Glycols and IFB Ind both looks good still to me.
IFB Ind, India Glycols, Navin Flourine, Essar Oil are such stocks that if one have 100-200 or 300 shares and can hold for LT can give tremendous return.
I gave a call again on Navin, IFB Ind and India Glycols very recently.I donno how many acted on it.I clearly gave hint that these shares were moving even before the market midcap rally starts.
All the 3 stocks were moving ahead of market which was giving us a clue that something good is coming in these counter but no one wants to do anything.
One can find these 200 DMA and 50 DMA chart on the price quote at bse site of that perticular stock.
There is a "Fundamental" tag on the top of the price quote, click on that and it will show whether the stock is moving over the 200 DMA or not.
How many here try to click all the tab on the quote of any stock at bse site?
Click one by one and see what bse is giving and learn to understand the stock and stock market.
One need to be mad with it.One need to have the passion for it.One need to have the passion for learning things.Untill that happens you will have to depend on others calls.

I would like to mention here my call on UTV around 300 which is breaking new highs everyday and now at Rs 875.I remember I wrote that it will touch 1000 and then lateron will get split and again move up.
Now the target of 1000 is not far off just 125 away and I have no doubt in my mind that it will get achieved.
Another stock I would like to mention is Venus Remedies which was up by rs 33 today and closed at Rs.253 which I feel is again giving us a bullish signal.After making a low of 176 in mid june which again one can see from the chart given at bse site, it is in constant upmove and is moving up and up.I have been bullish on Venus Remedies for long and looks like time has come for this stock to move up.Venus is a wonderful Pharma Co which is attaining new milestones one after another getting the patent in EU etc.I am seeing a bright future for Venus Remedies.The stock lacked high discounting a Pharma Co should get because of the Co not able to pay the FCCB.Otherwise a Pharma Co having an eps of 50 should quote at around atleast Rs 750 and not less.But as was declared those problem was taken care of and market has started looking up to this counter in a positive way and should trade higher and higher.

It looks like today was my day.......lol...

I just came upon the June results of KPIT Cummins and I was surprised to see it.Ofcourse that was a pleasant surprise.
The sales went up from 105 cr last year to 150 cr this year and the NP went up from Rs 6.44 cr to 19 cr , means 300% increase in NP.
KPIT was my stock of the year in 2009 maybe but as usual I was always ahead of market and predicting the growth which comes lateron.I recomended KPIT in Oct 2009 and after almost 2 yrs it has started showing the real class.After 2 yrs Chrys Capital decided to take stake in it .So that is how my calls are.....Fundamentally great but takes time to prosper.

I also feel that it is time for PSL Ltd to run as well in the next bull run which many must be holding it and cursing me .Let us see what happens.

I am now awaiting the results of IFB Ind and the runup says it is going to come good.I read at MMB where one boader wrote that the 2011 AR says that IFB Ind has added new capacities and modernize the plants which I think will add up in the sales and NPM.

Flex Foods Ltd and some other calls.......

Friends,
Flex Food was recomended way back in 2008.It is constantly giving 20% dividend since last 3 yrs.
The reason I am writing on it today is the Co has declared June qr results and that come out excellent.
The sales is up from 11 cr to 13 cr last year and NP went up from 48 lacs to 2.12 cr and that is a huge jump in NPM.The NP has gone up over 4 times.
Maybe Flex Foods now needs a second look .
Other stock I would like to mention is India Glycols.It has come out with excellent results too for June qr.India Glycols has remained my old favourite stock and one can have a look at it as well.

Read the Chairman message:
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Note from the Chairman

We believe in green Welcome to the India Glycols website. India Glycols is a leading public listed company that manufactures bulk, specialty and performance chemicals and natural gums, spirits and nutraceuticals. It is an ISO 9001, ISO 14001, OHSAS 18001 and ISO 22000 certified company. Our company holds the distinction of being the only green petrochemical company of its kind. It is the first and only company in the world to have commercialised the production of ethylene oxide, its derivatives and glycols from renewable agricultural resources, namely molasses or sugar cane. We believe in green. Not only have we adopted several green technologies, we continuously work to evolve new green methods, materials, innovative technologies and systems to meet the specific requirements of global clients. Our aim is to be at the forefront of efforts against global threats such as global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, resource depletion, bioaccumulation and persistent chemicals. To do this, we have implemented several green methodologies, including: New solutions and products made via the green route, ie, from raw materials that are renewable resources Novel technologies, including super critical technology for nutraceuticals. We use super critical carbon dioxide as a green solvent during extraction processes Novel catalysts and process improvements Separation and post-refining technologies Energy-efficient, renewable energy and water conservation projects A focus on improving sustainability, by looking at energy usage, carbon footprints and life cycle assessment of products At India Glycols, we work towards lowering our impact on the planet by reducing: Use of raw materials and non-renewable resources (for instance, by recycling carbon dioxide used as a solvent) Product toxicity Wastes and emissions during manufacture Risk and hazards from manufacturing Environmental impact of products Even our administrative processes are green; we have implemented SAP ERP solutions to achieve paperless work and minimise time frames and paper usage. We believe that the green movement is on the rise with more and more people joining it each year. We are proud of being a green petrochemical company with innovative technologies and a vision of long-term sustainability. “India Glycols relies on breakthroughs in green technologies. "

That is the reason I like India Glycols the most.They have been even alloted with CC for next 10 yrs of over 1.10 lacs carbon credit/year  which will go higher in future.

Navin Flourine has given high eps for Mar qr of 40 due to carbon credit which was missing in last 2 qr last year.
And as the CC has been now approved , Navin will keep on making huge NP from now onwards according to me.
Navin Flourine has taken stake of 51% of a UK Co named Manchester Organic Ltd which is dealing in Flouro Chemicals.Navin is now diverting in CRAMS as well.The buy back of Navin Flo was taken last year at Rs 400 and the deal of UK Co for 51% stake is worth 28 cr which says that Navin is a Cash rich Co now.
The amt they put in Maf Ind and which was written off to the tune of 60 cr , Navin will get it back and that will add to the reserve because Maf Ind has made a deal with Ajay Piramal Gr for 600 cr for land they possess and hence even Maf Ind needs to have a second look.

YASHRAJ CONTAINEURS LTD.....my old call.....

Friends,
I gave the call on YASHRAJ CONTAINEURS LTD. in mid dec 2009 at 24.
Today I saw that it was in 20% UC and I read in annocement that it will be soon coming out from the BIFR.
Investor needs to remember that market always fancies turnaround candidate.The valuation market gives to turnaround stocks are always high.
I know many must be thinking about what was the fate of YASHRAJ CONTAINEURS LTD. after remaining dorment for almost a year and a half.But that is market and that is how my calls are.
They remains still for 1year and more but when it starts moving it actually RUNS from circuit to circuit.
Those who gets tired are at loss.I don't say all my calls are like that .Some even do not run at all.It is all LUCK.
Try to find stocks which are moving higher then 200 DMA.200 DMA is a year high average of a year ( Daily moving average)and if they are moving ahead of that price then I think these stocks will outperform market when the midcap rally will actually start.

Happy days coming for Cals Ref?

AFTER A THREE-YEAR WAIT, CALS SET TO CART IN REFINARY

Cals Refineries’ proposed petroleum refinery at Haldia in West Bengal may be closer to reality following an out-of-court settlement reached with the German company contracted with supplying equipment for the unit.
The project was to be set up with equipment from three dismantled refineries, the first of which was Bayernoil Raffinerie GmbH’s 45-year-old, 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) unit in Ingolstadt along the river Danube. Spice Energy promoted Cals had in 2008 signed an agreement with Lohrmann International GmbH for dismantling and relocating the Bayernoil refinery.
However, Cals and Lohrmann went to Delhi High Court last year over execution of the agreement and later decided to settle the conflict through arbitration by the tribunal of Indian Council of Arbitration.
The promoters’ inability to raise funds in the aftermath of the global economic crisis also delayed the project.
The delay has taken a severe toll on the stock of Cals, which is listed on the Bombay and Luxembourg stock exchanges. From around Rs6.55 per share of face value Rs1 in 2008, it is quoting at just 44 paise now.
Following the out-of-court settlement, sources said, the shipment is expected to commence next week.
As per the last timeline disclosed by the company, the project is to get commissioned in the fourth quarter of this fiscal, a delay of about 2 years from the initial estimates.
Cals, meanwhile, has taken steps to further expand the capacity to 200,000 bpd in Phase II from 100,000 bpd in the first phase.
The company in March mandated turnkey contractors Saipem of Italy with the job of carrying out a feasibility study for the 200,000 bpd Haldia refinery project.
The contract also stipulated that if the feasibility report is accepted within 80 days, the Italian contractor would be awarded the EPCC contract for the project.
The capacity for the second phase would come from translocation of two other refineries —- one from Cenco Refining Company of California and another from Atas Refinery in Turkey —-bought from hedge fund and real estate player the Hardt Group, for which the parties had earlier entered into an agreement.
Cals has planned a Rs1,425-crore global depository receipt (GDR) issue to finance the deal, but the government in June referred the proposal to the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs.
Cals would pay for the refineries by issuing the GDRs to affiliates of Hardt worth $317 million, while the balance $100 million would be in cash at a later date. Before that, Hardt would have to procure the equipment, get them refurbished and get them delivered to Haldia.
Cals said in May that it has allotted shares worth Rs94.79 crore to Abboro Ltd, an affiliate of Hardt.
Cals has also signed an agreement with Mohammed Abdulmohsin Al-Kharafi & Sons Co of Kuwait for raising $150 million through the GDR issue.
In the third phase, Cals will implement an additional 200,000 bpd greenfield capacity, taking the total capacity to 400,000 bpd.
In 2008, Cals had announced that oil major BP would be supplying the crude requirement for the phase I capacity for about 10 years and would also buy back 65% of the production at market prices. It is not known if that agreement is still valid, considering the long delay suffered in project execution.

My Comments:
After reading this take a call on your own........I know it is a penny stock but I just cameupon this news and as I read some readers are holding it, I thought it fit to reproduce it here......
 I would add here that it is a question of 50 paisa.......buy Cals Ref as 50 paisa is gone according to your capacity how much you can write off......the top was rs 6.50 in 2008...

Essar Oil declares 470 cr Net Profit............cmp Rs 127......

Friends,
I am very very happy to see Essar Oil coming out with an excellent Net Profit of Rs 470 cr from a Loss of Rs 70 cr last year same time.
I gave a call for Essar Oil way back and my confidence has been turn out good.Even after one see that management is not reliable the Co has come out with great result.I am very glad to see that happening which again vindicates my view that there is nothing like good manegement or bad management.
If Co starts doing right things management becomes good and market gives thumbs up to such stock.
Essar Oil will get rerated and I have no doubt about it in my mind.
At Rs 127, Essar Oil is going cheap and one is able to get it so cheap because of the lack of confidence in market.No one is ready to stick out the neck and buy such stocks but actually these are the times when one should buy such stocks.Best time to buy stocks is when the chips are down.When market is hesitant to go up.When there are no positive trigger, when no one giving call to buy it, when no one wants to buy but actually wants to sell on every rise.
Selling on every rise period is already over.That was the period from Nov 2010 to May 2011.After May 2011 the period has started to buy stocks and market has given us a wonderful chance to buy stocks which are battered down badly.
I wrote recently I am seeing the prices which one can compare it with 2008 and early 2009 stage.I feel that valuations has gone down way much and if commodities are going to correct and is already correcting then I think we will be able to see good bottomline in next 2 quaters results and one needs to remember that market is always ahead 2-3 qr from investors.
Coming back to Essar Oil, I have observed that the Np has gone up consistantly qr to qr for last 4 qrs.Just have a look at last 4 qrs from Sep 2010.The Np has been constantly increasing qr to qr and I think that is an excellent situation for any Co.
I still say, Essar Oil will be a wealth accumalator if hold for LT and here LT will be for 3 to 5 yrs and more.Just buy and forget.Well, I can be proved wrong as I am not a God and I can't see what bad can happen to Essar Oil, a mishap or suddenly world finds out alternative for Oil and people start stop using Petrol/Gas.
I recomended IFB Ind @90  in Apr 2010 and it doubled by Nov 2010 and has come back to 130 and I feel that it is also time to have a look at it again.Brand product and Co coming out from BIFR and making profit as well  and a MNC Co.The promoters hold 71.56% and that is a big positive for me.Try to understand the movement.The price of 90 from which I recomended has not come and I don't feel it will come.There are scores of other stocks which has not come down recently like Lumax Ind , Loyal Tex, Super Sales,Epc Ind, Sujana Towers,Apar Ind and many more .I can't remember all but one can find many and according to me these are excellent stocks to hold on to as they are winners.
Let me tell you one more thing.When you see that in your portfolio some stocks goes up as soon as market goes up then that is a good thing as it shows that the counter is getting attention and buyers comes as soon as market goes up .It may even happen that even after market goes up the stock underperform then it says that it will take time to move up as it is in accumalation mode.The counter has not become dry which is very necessary for any stock to move up.
So the botttomline is if stocks moves up with market , then one can easily assume that the current is there and it can out perform the market as well.
DD is a must before taking a plunge in any of my call.I can go horribly wrong.
What I am trying to do here is pointing stocks which small investors may miss having a look at.

Hold the winners..........

Friends,
I sometimes gets an itch to write something and when it is trying to educating small investors I get that fever very fast.....lol. Because I know there is no one to discuss what a small investment can do to their entire life.
I had tried my best and I has given out everything I have to my readers.I will keep on writing whenever something will come up to my mind.
The main subject here will be holding on to stocks.I have written many times and today I am writing again , "HOLD THE WINNERS"....these are the stocks your decision had come correct.Most of the investors has the experiance of stock going down invariably after buying.Well, that isn't the case with us, even a highly successful, I can put him with WB, Peter Lynch has also experianced that.
He has spoken somewhere , and if one try to write Peter Lynch in "search"tab here at my blog one will be able to open that post wherein he has written 10 out of 8 times the stocks has gone down after his buying.
That is a universal phenomenon.Don't get perturbed by it but let me tell you , there are stocks which never went down after buying.That is a catch here.Don't sell that shares.If your price is not coming back from where you bought , it means that after our buying the momentum has started and if the stock is fundamentally good then hold on even after it doubles.Wait for further upmove and then sell part, maybe 25% and not 50% to make the holding FOC(Free Of Cost).
Stock not coming down after buying is an excellent situation which doesn't come to all.That is a rare achievement or stroke of luck.It says that as soon as we bought the operation started.
I have written many times here that for any stock to run the floating stock needs to be dried up.Unless that doesn't happen the stock never runs.I am not writing how that paucity of floating stock happens , one need to read between the lines.
The mistake small investors make is , they sell stocks which is in profit and hold on to the losers.That is a wrong way of thinking.Hold on to the winners.These are the stocks which has coincided with your LUCK.These stocks are LUCKY for you.Where you are making LOSS is not your LUCKY stock.Then why one need to stuckup with such UNLUCKY stocks?Hold on LUCKY stocks.
Ofcourse one need to see what will be the future of the Co and how much more it can go up, but don't hang on with losers.Simple.......
Even one stock can change the fate of a small investor.It can wipe out the entire losses made in stock market.Yes, only ONE stock can do it.It has happened to me.It has happened to many others as well.
One stock can give such a big return that one can buy a House from it.One can pay for children donation from that.
I was talking with a friend from India and he was telling me that he has invested in stocks which are not speculative amd hence he is at ease.I told him, man, stock market itself is speculation, how come some stocks are speculative and some are not.The thinking itself is speculation.
Let me explain.When we say this stock is not speculative and this is speculative, we assume it and the assumption itself is a speculation.Whenever we assume something it is a type of speculation.
Anyway, coming back to stock market , speculation is a part of life as well.When we will take our last breath no one knows.When a word no one knows comes, it becomes speculation.We keep on assuming we will be there the next day but no one knows the next day fate.
The stock goes up and down and that is speculation.Someone buys because he thinks it will go up.That is speculation.Some sell it because he thinks it will not go up that is speculation.What is F&O?That we assume and buy futures and we assume and buy Calls/Puts.
It is all speculation, speculation and speculation.........

Nifty..........5728

Friends,
I have been telling you that last week rally was not a relief rally.I still believe that the upmove we are seeing is not a relief rally.Market has reversed.
Market has started discounting news ahead of time.Expert believe this or not but that is what is happening.Every analyst is waiting for 4800-4700 and even RJ said that market can find support at 4700-4800 due to inflation and int rate concern but the fact is market put aside that as these were reasons that has happened long time back and now the global scenario is, commodities is coming down and that will be seen in the bottom line of the Cos.
I last time wrote that Auto and Banking will have a very positive effect of this news and that is what is happening in market.
I today am not writing to show that I proved correct or what I said has happened because still there will many ups and downs in market making investors hesitant not to invest in stocks.There will be many shocks and many surprised up move like we saw today but according to me we are northbound.
There are many reports that keeps on coming about Greece crisis, Ice land crisis and so forth and so on but still when these news are fresh market is moving up.
I talked about Cloud Computing in one  of my post and wrote that the stocks to watch are Ramco System,Allied Digital and GSS America.
I don't how many studied those stocks and how many bought them.Cloud Computing is a sector which is going to boom 10 times in next 2-3 yrs and I have mentioned it here way ahead before market starts looking at those stocks.
My readers need to get in early then anyone else and that is why I have started this blog.But remember one thing that when we get in early in any sector or stock then the holding period goes up as we are way ahead before market start looking at those stocks and sectors.
Allied Digital has annouced a buy back at 140 and price was 43 last week and it has jumped by rs 10 in last 3 sessions.
GSS America has seen a good couple of bulk deals in last month or two.Those in know of such things has already started accumalating these stocks.
Ramco System is not budging at all and is still at Rs 92 even though the bottomline is in red.So what one need to understand here is market says Ramco is available at 92 even after making loss and if you want to buy , buy it otherwise leave it and you lose it .The hint here is , what price market will give when Ramco will start making profit?It is la Lumax Ind .......which was making loss and was quoting at Rs 95. I know this is a spoon feeding.This is a very simple commonsense thing one can understand but investor don't think like that. That is why I wrote it here.......
Srei Infra after making a low around 39 is again up to 44 as market feels that Int rate will eases and that will help Srei Infra.That is another case of market discounting stocks ahead of time.
Understand the market....that is the bottomline.
I am writing 3 more stocks in IT space.
1) Avantel Ltd
2) Solix Technologies Ltd
3) Sankhya Infotech Ltd

Avantel and Sankhya is in defence sector where lots of activity is going with orders going to these Cos as well. Open the annoucement of these stocks and read it one by one of last 2 yrs.I do that.Look at the earnings of these 2 cos as well and decide on your own.
Solix is in cloud Computing and is a very small player but it is a dark horse.