Wednesday, December 30, 2009

What should an Investor do in this market......

Freinds,
I am trying to give my view on what one should do now at sensex 17k....
My thinking maybe totally wrong and there can be big difference in what I will write or what people will think, including my readers as well as experts........I am no match to those experts as I am not in contact of what FII's thinks or what DII's thinks or what HNI's think or for that matter what Fund manager thinks be it Indian for Foriegn.....So those who find views different then me should opt for what they think is correct.There is no bounding from me.It is yours money and you should know what needs to be done.....
I sometimes also feels that as one of the reader wrote me recently that majority of my picks which I gave in 2008 , the prices are way down from there.So am I good enough to write at my blog?Well, it is ofcourse my blog and I can write whatever I think, but the question arises is if my picks do not do well then whether it is worth writing here......
He also ask me that he wants to learn from me how I pick up the stock.But I ask him, if I am not able to give proper picks , which are laggards and gives negative returns then why he should try to learn my way of picking stock......
He also once asked me that isn't it so that as market is running ,hence my picks are also doing good?Now when that is the case then where is the need to follow my blog?
He ask me if Luck is playing that much important role then why this boasting?Yes, I agree, that Luck plays important role but then in that case one needs to close the eye and put a fingure on any stock quote in ET or any business paper and buy it and if you have LUCK, you are always going to get great returns from that stock.......It is that simple....
He also tells me that I was never pessimist in whole 2008.Well, who was?Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
has said in an interview that he never thought that market will break 16k.We never saw him selling stocks in 2008.Did we?What that says?Did we saw Warren Buffet selling stocks in 2008?
Market broke 16k and even went down by 50% from there at 8k .......but RJ holding was still there.....
I have been adviced that the rule has changed.One need to sell fast and buy fast.Means take 10-20% profit and move to other stock.But according to me the rules has not changed.People holding stocks for LT has been rewarded by the market immensly and that has been proved again except the stock is proper.....
Now coming back to what one should do.........at 17,000 sensex....
Well, one should go ahead and BUY stocks if one sees value ......that is the most important thing one should understand......
As one of the reader pasted me an article of Dalal Street journal magazine ,in which it was written that many are still sceptic about the market and there are pockets who are waiting for correction.....
Value ,one will always find anytime.Was Burlington North cheap when Buffet decided to buy at 20-30% premium of market price?It was already $70-$73 and Buffet bougt at 20-25% premium....No one was ever able to see that before Buffet?Where were Marc Faber,Jim Rogers and likes ......or is it so that Buffet decision is wrong?He overly paid for Burlington North?Was Buffet thinking was wrong?

What one can see as a mistake can become a very great investment in future...I am sure many people were thinking that investment in HOEC was a blunder that RJ made but see where it is now and if one will see the latest annoucement , HOEC has all the ingrediants to go for 4 figure mark.


What is important in market is what one is able to read in future of any Co.Looking at present performance on earnings, one will say it is fully priced or overly priced but I can say that HOEC has the ability to touch 1000-1200 in due course time....I can read it from the news that are coming from HOEC .

HOEC remained dorment for almost 5 yrs and never ran in the last bull run.Instead it went on increasing capital through right issue, I think the right issue came twice......now what that will lead to.....Co is doing nothing and spending money and increasing the Eq.....and now see, before market makes new HIGH, HOEC is making new HIGHS......Analyst will always says that HOEC is overpriced.....Aree ,HOEC to kain lavato hase?Ema shun che......and those who didn't buy missed a multibagger.....
So the thing is , how you can FORESEE......how you can judge what is coming up.....that is the bottomline.....
So according to some experts if Bull market is when sensex crosses 21k...then we have a very long way to go and if one is thinking that India can grow much higher then this then one should stay invested as the peak has not come yet.
The euphoria is still not there.My way to seeing the euphoria will be when we will again see the column of 52 week high in ET becoming bigger and bigger....that has not yet comein.....I have seen some experts saying that all stocks has started running, cats and dogs ,and hence time to be catious, then I don't believe them as not all cats and dogs are running, Only those who have some story brewing up are running...At 17k, we are just 4k behind at all time high of sensex and hence cash gr stock has to matchup with it....this is not euphoria...there are many who are sitting in sidelines waiting for more correction....waiting for 13k or 12k.....as once Shankar Sharma categorically said that he sees 12k first before 21k comes......Untill those sitting on sidelines waiting for correction becomes desperate and start investing, thinking that they will now definately miss the bus...as market never gives the price at the rate you wants to enter and untill market gives that chance , it is not euphoria.....stocks that goes up is still coming back to give chance to buy at lower rate...the day the previous price stops coming back...market will starts its journey towards peaking out....





12 comments:

  1. Dear Rajeev,
    I replied to Raj in the best way i currently could But your reply was simply TOO GOOD.

    I guess thats the difference between a novice like me and an expert like u.

    Ur picks are simply too good. If one invests for long term they will definately make tons of money

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  2. Rajeev bhai

    I asked pandit to teach me how to pray ...he said just pray simple as u do normally,n dont try to be an expert and then make mistakes. God wont like that
    hope u understand.

    So..................

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  3. hi rajeev

    your venus remedies is on fire..i missed it as i didnt have money . i had already bought sahaydri , yashraj .. even those two are going great guns

    thanks for all ur recos

    ravi

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  4. ravi,
    I am happy to see that you are back in market.I remember once you wrote here that you are quitting....
    this is the only market where one can make 10 times in a year...
    My call on SNL Bearing given at Rs 11 has also doubled fast....today was buyer at Rs 22.24....firing all cylinders....

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  5. Hi Rajeev,
    Excellent and so timely article. Markets have become so volatile, one just doesnt understand whether to invest or wait.
    My strategy for the stocks which i want to buy is to buy some quantity on every 10% up or down.

    About your recommendations , your old pick Micro Tech is running smoothly since 2 days.

    One more point. I think I am late on this. But as I came across the news of CIL ( Coal India Limited) divestment just recently. And I remembered your post on WB buying in Burlington Northen , where you stated the imp. of coal.
    So can we look forward for CIL IPO, as CIL claims to be world's largest coal producer.

    With Regards,
    Vikas

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  6. Priya,
    I didn't understand your hmmmmm hmmmmmm.....What I should make out from it.....Lol..lol....Main Trikal gyani nahi hun....

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  7. hello RAJEEV,do you track VALSON IND if yes can you comment on the same in your leisure time.

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  8. My blog on Equity Portfolio of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala may be of some use to you all.

    http://www.rakesh-jhunjhunwala.blogspot.com

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  9. Viaks,
    CIL should be a good IPO to go with...ur maths is correct...

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  10. Kitty,
    Valson Ind is looking good in Textile ind play.
    Management holds almost 77% ....good earnings coming and sustaining....don't know much about the product but seems looking at the results they are doing good....

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  11. Thanks Sonika for putting ur blog id here.Readers should be beniffited from it...

    ReplyDelete