Greece Financial debacle..........

Friends,
Today let me write about Greece Crisis and other countries that would join the bandwagon of financial Crisis....
I am seeing lots of discussion going on and on about where the market can go world over.
I have seen analyst proving wrong on certain hype and technicals.I don't say that Greece crisis will have no effect at all but the repurcurssion will be far far less then the US financial crisis.
What we saw in 2008 was because US consumption is 30% of the world GDP.Is Greece having that type of stake in world GDP?I don't think so....USA is the growth driver for the whole world and hence we saw the world market melting down in 2008.But here we can't compare it with other Euoropean countries that includes Greece, Spain,IreLand etc....
Now if currency Euro is going to get destabilze and going to crack down then it is obvious that Dollar will strengthen.If Pound Sterling is going to lose its value then it is Dollar's gain.And if Dollar gains then USA also gains in big way.And if US gains , and economy return back to normalcy then world buisness will again be booming......what else market wants.....

We all know that China is delibaretly keeping the Yuan undervalued and hence taking advantage of export  as China has fixed value for Yuan.China decide what will be the value of Yuan against all currencies and they have kept the value under their check and thus putting them in advantageous position in world trade.
Well,one day I was going through some writeups by some experts and they were saying that 60% of Chinese economy comes from construction and that is the reason that China can collapse any time this year....
But then what should be the base for any economy?Can any expert give me another other growth driver for an underdeveloped country?
If Infra, Construction is not going to the growth driver for India what can be the other sector which can put India in higher GDP path?
The reason Infra and Construction becomes the biggest growth driver is because if Infra and Construction is booming then all other sectors also join with it like Engineering, Auto,Steel, Cement,Power etc etc.....with Infra and contruction booming each and every sector comes in play......
So how a country growing on Contruction/Infra sector can collapse?Yes, there can be excess but that can be tamed and taken care of but that doesn't mean that country can collapase...
We are seeing what is happening to developed countries....The Growth is hindered....Why?Because the Infra and Construction sector is saturated and hence we are not seeing 8-9% GDP for USA , UK,France, Germany,Spain etc etc...........
When there is no construction  taking place in developed countries then the GDP will remain in range of 3% which is the GDP of USA and likes......
Well, India got some $17 bn in last year i.e. 2009 and these are FII inflow.These are Hedge Funds money as well as Long Term Pension funds money.Hedge Funds money are those which are known as fast money.Hedge fund money moves in fast and moves out fast.So it is obvious that with slightest panic sign Hedge Fund will start selling and we will have cascanding effect.
Thus I can say that we can see sensex at 15k or round about that ,maybe shed lower to 14500 but don't see market going to 12k level or below that.I am seeing lots of talk going on saying market will breach the 2008 level as well.......means 8k level and then, I think ,  that will be the END of market...whole world.....people are waiting for 8k and even below so that they can invest at the lowest price......and makes huge profit....
But anyone having experiance of stock market knows very very well, that market never moves on one Whims.....one keep on waiting for correction of his thought and he/she keeps on waiting for years and years...
I would only like to say here that no one can be expert in market....who thought that market will go up 100% in 1 year after the debacle of Subprime mortagage?But that happened.....
Well,I am optimist person by nature.I always think positive.Many of friends says that but you needs to be rationale...you need to be able to analyse positive and negative and then decide.
Well, that is not possible.....atleast for me.What negative one should think and analyse?That world is under debt crisis and hence market can tank and so one must be in Cash more then invested?
Ok, let me take an example....a real life example......An Indian Actress Lisa Ray got a Incurable Cancer, called, Multiple myeloma , a rare form of Cancer that is incurable.......
But she came out winning from it....
These is the medical term of these type of Cancer....
"Multiple myeloma is a cancer of white blood cells that attacks and destroys bone and which more commonly afflicts people in their mid-60s. There is currently no known cure and treatment is focused on containment."


Now coming out winner from such type of cancer.....what should be the attitude?Trying to analyse that the cancer one has got is incurable and so he/she is going to die anyway?Remember , there is one great thing that GOD has kept in every human being and that is FAITH......that is a big big trigger for anyhuman being.....
I would like to see what if any of these experts who wants to see negative and positive and takes steps like that what will they do when they have such type of problem what Lisa Ray passed through.....acoording to that when they hear that what they have got is incurable, they will put the hands down before the death will come.......and for living , one needs to be optimist ......
I liked the way LisaRay fought with incurable Cancer and I wish her a very long life.......Congrats Lisa for fighting incurable Cancer and coming out winner....

http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory?id=10441173

I have given the link for what Lisa Ray has said and what she went through.....it is worth a read......
But the bottom line here is,The FAITH Lisa was having has recovered her from the most dreaded Cancer....
Now this is only posssible if someone is a die hard Optimist.......Hum kehta hai na.....Umed pe to Duniya kayam hai......
I know certain people will say, that what Lisa went through is different and when we talk about market is different....but I say ...no, it is same......I see Warren Buffet as an Optimist.....he is bullish on US economy down the line 20 yrs...now he is already 78 so after 20yrs he will be 98and hence very less chance he will still be alive at that age....God forbids,I wish him a very long life, but this is just an example......and even if he is alive at 98 how much he will be investing in market is another question.....
He is bullish on Indian Economy as well down the line 20yrs....I have posted his quote saying Indian people will have better life in next 20yrs....and that quote is coming from none other then 2nd richest person of the world.....
I know there are experts who find faults with Warren Buffet picks and Rakesh Jhunjhunwala picks......and feel that they have all right to do that....but has they ever thougt how many mistakes they have made and what is the ratio of their own mistakes and these biggie mistakes?
They find mistakes with WB or RJ but they never looks into their house....apne girehban main bhi Zanko....that is all I would tell to them....
Can there be any comparision between WB or RJ and those how find fault with their picks?No way...they are far far beyond their comparision.......I can say, even if RJ speaks against WB , it doesn't looks comparable....because RJ's wealth has been created most from 2003 onwards while WB is there since last 60 yrs....can anyone there in the horizen who has such a long stint in stock market and still compound the m oney the way WB has done?
But the thing one needs to remember is when RJ was a BEAR , in his early stage of his stock market life, he never made such wealth he is making after he turned a BULL.....Most of his Wealth has come after 2003 and after he turned bullish on our economy...........