Monday, July 27, 2009

Let them think which ever way they wants........

Dear Friends,
Market corrected for 1500 points after budget and came down to as low as 13200 and from there it has started its upwards journey again.
I remember I was writing here that 12k is going to be the next big support and that is not going to get break easily.Market is remaining over 14500 constantly for more time then remianing below.Actually according to some experts 12700 was the biggest resistance levels and that we have already crossed with ease and no way we are seeing it again since the market made a upper circuit on Election result day.
From that day we have not seen 12700 again and that is almost 3 months.Budget was bad as an expert came at wiremedia to say that Budget is bad and FII sold heavily on that day and few days after that.It means that there are still some FII's left who are still in the Bear Camp and follows the Indian experts instead of trying to understand the budget themselves through experts.Now again FII has started their buying after able to understand the budget in better way.But the question that arises is why they don't wait for the finer prints to come out?Don't they know that in India many things comes outside Budget day?
Either the FIIs who sold are too shortsighted or are following wrong experts and advisor.What is the meaning of selling a month back and coming back to buy next month?
I have seen they have sold in many stocks which have great future and great fundamentals and good management.I have also marked that after selling in last 1 year they have purchased the same stock again and increased the stake ?That makes no sense to me.Anyway that is their decision.......
But market again started its upward journey after the dust setteled down of bad budget and that is important.Any negative that is there in budget was taken as a pinch of salt and it was ignored by the market as they were not big enough to take note of....
I have written about Sesa Goa . Now what one needs to look at is Sesa Goa 52 week high was Rs 3200 and 52 low was Rs 69 and around that price I recomended it.Now if someone feels that Sesa Goa can go down to single digit and then he will buy then he is living in fools paradise.3200 to 69 is just 2.15% of the high.....and even at the currect rate at 230 it is still below 1/10 of the high.

One of the reader has brought to my attention that Sesa Goa price which we are seeing is already 52 week high.I got deceived by the bseindia site wherein I saw that they are showing 3623 as 52 week high....and 1 paidup........I apologize to my readers that without confirming I wrote about Sesa Goa.....
Sesa Goa has recently also bought mines and doing the right things.

Same can be applied for other stocks as well.
Remember one thing always.I just write my views and that's all.After all you are investing your hardearned money and hence level of comfort is very important.If stocks goes down after you buy then it should be you who needs to take the decision whether you still wants to hold or sell in whatever loss and switched over to other good stocks......
I am bound to make mistakes and some of the calls which I gave may not become good this time.The entire scenario has changed.The stocks which ran last time may not run this time and it is also not so that they will SURELY not run this time but there is no guarentee....

But here I will say that if the last year was bad and taken as a BULL Market correction then same sectors and same stocks can become multibagger again and if last year was a Bear Market and this is unfolding of a new Bull Market then ofcourse the sectors and stocks are going to get changed.....Take your call and decide what it what?I have already said that the last year was a Bull market correction as , if we are going to cross the previous high within a year or less then 7 years , which I explained in my last post then Bull market is still intact which started in 2003....


  1. Hi Rajeev Ji,

    Have you been tracking any of these stocks. If yes, please share your thoughts on these.

    - WH Brady
    - Gloster Jute Mills
    - panasonic carbon


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  3. Dear Dhiman,
    You may be right here and I may be wrong here.
    I was actually looking at the bseindia site for 52 weeks high and there I was seeing that Sesa Goa 52 week high was 3623 and low was 60 and hence I thought that they must have given the price after it splitted to 1 paidup.....but that seems not be the case.....
    Thanks for bringing that to my note....

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  5. Dear Rajeev,

    One information related to Sesa Goa is they have splitted to 10 from 1 and bonus also given at 1:1 so 1 stock has become 20. thats why it is so low; actually it is making lifetime high if I consider all these information. I saw all that information in Moneycontrol. I don't know what I am saying that is making any sense or not in this context.


  6. Dear Sumit,
    I do not track any u have no view

  7. Dear Rajeev,
    PSL Ltd posted its first quarter earnings today.
    The Topline has again reduced to 633 cr from 1210 cr the previous quarter (March 2009). However Net profit has gone up from 13 cr to 22cr thus resulting in an EPS of 5.28 for this quarter.

    Any idea as to why there is this erratic movement in topline. As all their plants in India , UAE and US should be working to finish the present orders I dont think there should have been a 50% drop in Topline ???

    Though my long term view stands solidly behind PSL (I have been accumulating PSL and have currently 2950 shares) I was just wondering if you could decifer this short term mystery for me.

    Thanks in advance.

  8. The bse copy was illegible and i rechecked the same on NSE and found that the quarterly results are on a stand alone basis and do not include the results of its subsidiaries.

    Could that be a reason for its reduced Topline reported for this quarter ??

  9. Dear Rajeev,

    Sujana twrs has posted very nice results for this quarter. They have recorded the highest ever turnover of 174.88 crores and EPS has also come in at 1.55 for this quarter.
    Looks like the profits are coming back ontrack and a matter of time before it reaches its book value of Rs 60. What do u say ??...

    Also awaiting your analysis of the PSL results.

    BTW what are u making of this chinese markets fall and subsequent fall in all commodities? Anything serious that investors need to be worried about ?