Thursday, July 23, 2009

What can be next darling sector of bull run........

Dear Friends,
What can be the name of that sector which will give great returns in the next bull run which is going to come?This bull run should go over 21k.Unless it crosses 21k bears will only say that this is a bear market rally.The defination given for a new Bull run is sensex needs to cross 21k!That is a huge task.Because after Harshad Mehta bull run in 1992 when sensex made 4600, it took almost 7 years for the sensex to make a new TOP of 6560 and that was made in 2000 Mar.
After that again a new high was made in 2006-2007.Means again 7 years to make a new high.That was in Ketan Parekh time when it was lead by Technology stocks.
So hence it can be assumed that every 7 years, old high is crossed and market makes new high.
Now if market crosses 21k with 1 year from now then we can assume that this was not a bear market which we saw in 1992 and 2000 after Harshad Mehta took the sensex from 1800 to 4600 and in 1999-2000 Ketan Parekh took it from 2800 to 6560.
These both are known by their mentors name, viz:Harshad Mehta and Ketan Parekh.
For any Bull run , liquidity is very important.Without money bull market can never take place.At that time in 1992 , Harshad Mehta manipulated money from Banks and UTI etc and we saw sensex at 4600.In Ketan Parekh time , he took money from Madhavpura Bank for buying stocks.In both the instances we can see that market maker has to garner money from banks and if a bear knows that they will sell in the market and will make things difficult for bulls as he has borrowed money.
But now in 2009 and since the new bull market has unfolded since market crossed there was big FII inflow and with economy becoming good there is no need for any BULL to try to do things which can make the market go again in bear market.
There are bulls still some are new and some old faces but they now have not to borrow money from Fin institution or banks to manipulate market and trades.They go hand in hand with FII's.Either Bulls or Bears.So that is why even after market has gone up over 3 times from the past high of 6560 we have no SCAM.That is the most important part of this BULL RUN.

So if market crosses 21k before 7 yrs then bears will have to believe this was a bull market correction......
Now coming back to which sector can outperform this bull run I think technology sector is one sector one needs to look at as it has not taken part in last bull run and it was front runner in 2000.So I think technology sector can lead the market to take sensex at new high.......


  1. Dear Rajiv,

    It is good to hear your sectorial prediction for next bull run. Do you have anything in your mind from this sector whaere we can invest.

    It would really be great if you mention a few from this sector.

    It will really helpfull for us.


  2. Dear Dhiman,
    In Technology sector I like Tulip most.This is a great co and I have already given a call here.
    Vakrangee Soft, Bartronics,Mindteck,Infotech Enterprise,Geometric Soft,Aptech,Edserve are some of my favourites......I may be wrong in identifying the sector as front runner.That was just taking a contrarian IT sector as a whole has not run since 2000.....