Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Kalyani Forge and Excel Crop...my old call...updates..

I recomended Kalyani Forge at 87 in last Aug 09 and Excel Crop at 115 and Aries Agro around 40 range...
I am seeing that Kalyani Forge is making new high at 215 and Excel Crop inching up to 175 and Aries Agro crossing 125.....these all is happening within 1 year.
I again reiterate, keep a watch on GMR Ferro,Sabero Agro, LT Foods,Lumax Ind, Hitech Gear( new pick ),Super Spinning,Super Sales etc which looks still excellent for 1-2 yrs..and more....I am bulliish on Vijay Shanti Builders as well in realty play.
Read that MD of Ennore Coke is planning to buy Coke mines in Australia and Newzealand at Retures....and that is the reason we are seeing upward movement in Ennore Coke as if that materialize then there will no looking back for Ennore Coke.....and can turn out to be a real multibagger even from hereon.......


  1. In Stone India, seems somebody is buying big. Most of the time yesterday, there were only buyers and not sellers. Seems somebody was buying everything available out there.

  2. Sajith,
    When I already wrote about Stone India as a buy , readers still ask me whether it is a buy call......I will never be able to understand what more the want from me.....I already wrote Stone India is a buy....

  3. Have you looked at Gandhimathi appliances. They are the makers of butterfly brand gas stoves,Cookers, grinders and other kitchen utensils. They have good market share in south india.They are giving a good fight to ttk prestige.It is cheap compared to ttk and hawkins. They seem to rise from their slumber by introduce some new products. Dont know about their presence in north india.


  4. Hi Rajeev,
    I am a small investor who invest from my monthly savings. After reading your post on Stone India, I bought some. Thanks a lot for that recommendation.
    Btw, Laffans has also moved up a lot in last few days, I have bought some Laffans also after reading your posts.

  5. Hi Rajeev,
    I have been following your BLOG since last year and must admit that i have made handsome gains on your recommendations. Thanks for that.
    Can you please let me know if you have any idea about ABC Paper Ltd(532937) and DCM Shriram Industries Ltd. (523369). I had bought this sometime ago ( and it was not your recommendation) and i am in loss in both the scrips. Can you please let me know your view.

  6. Hi Rajeevji,
    Could you please suggest your opinion on STURDY industries. It is hovering around 5 for quite some time.

  7. Hi Rajeevji,
    Could you please suggest your opinion on STURDY industries. It is hovering around 5 for quite some time.

  8. Hello Rajeev ji,
    Please enlighten with your view on Kirloskar Pneumetic ?
    P/E 12 , EPS 31 , Promoter 55%
    I came across reading it in, gujarat samachar.

  9. STURDY industries is good stock they are in expanding with capex of 420 crore. The Singaporean arm of a leading US-based power producer has shown keen interest in collaborating with Sturdy Industries for the power project, including financing up to 75 per cent of the project cost.

    Important point :

    Discussing the huge cost benefits, he explained, "Currently we are paying around Rs 4 per kwh but with our captive plant, we would generate power at around Rs 1.75 per unit plus only 5 paise per unit as wheeling charges. This will bring down our electricity costs by around 50 per cent." Sturdy has five manufacturing units, spread over Baddi and Parwanoo in Himachal and Derabasi in Punjab, for manufacturing power conductors, irrigation systems and building material.

  10. Hi Rajeev ,thanks for excellent calls.my stocks Laffan and rungta are both doing well,awaiting rasandik and confidence petro picking up.
    Also am waiting for your advice,please, on SEL Manufacturing.thanks.

  11. January 9, 2010 10:16 AM
    mech71 said...

    Dear Rajeevji,

    Can you plz comment on SEL Mfg. Co., a textile /apparel company having cmp of 87.Last year EPS was around 42 and this year looks will touch around 60. Do you look to be a multi-bagger in near future ??
    January 11, 2010 1:52 AM
    Rajeev Desai said...

    SEL Mfg is very speculative stock.If and if only you can digest the volatility then only buy...
    January 11, 2010 5:48 AM

  12. VIJAY SHANTI BUILDERS LTD Posted by : joajem
    From MMB

    This Chennai based company, promoted by Jain family appears as the pick of the Real Estate sector. Company never acquired any land by outbidding the competitors. It always looked at economic viability. Hence, steadily VSBL has built a fairly large land bank in Chennai and Tamil Nadu, at a low price and reasonable price. Finally, VSBL is debt free. Management of the company is fairly reliable, operations reasonably efficiently managed and looking at improved prospects of the company/industry, this company offers good value at current market price.

    Company managed to NP of 2.65crs in 2007-08 having achieved PAT of 13.94crs on 142.71crs sales, despite crash in real estate price. In H1 of current year, its sales have come down to just 22crs but company has still reported NP of 1.12crs.

    Due to slowdown, company had put on hold its various projects. Since company has no debt, it was in no hurry to sell its properties at very low prices. Chennai property market is reviving in the last 3 months and VSBL is strong beneficiary.

    9M/09-10 2008-09 2007-08
    Rs/crs Rs/crs Rs/crs
    Net Sales 37.00 51.42 142.71
    Interest 0.05 0.09 0.16
    Net Profit 1.99 2.65 13.94
    Equity 12.69 12.06
    Reserves 41.05
    EPS Rs. 11.55
    Book Value Rs. 42.00

    Valuations : 1. Current market cap of VSBL is Rs.45crs. (a largfe apartment fin posh building of Mumbai fethes so much Price)
    2. As per our estimates, market value of its existing land bank should be in the range of 400-500crs.
    3. On existing land bank, company has capacity to build projects which can fetch it Rs.1300-1500crs. in next 5-6 years.

    Reasonably confident that 2010-11 should be best ever in its history. At current market cap VSBL is screaming buy. Great value. Investor can buy big quantity.

  13. Sir Rajeev,
    Thanks for the new call Hitech gear, equity is low and found they are making profit even in worst period. I will be net buyer from tomorrow. Meantime you did not give any target price. Hope it will cross it all time high price of rs.230 within 1 years of time.

    Also found you are interested in Textile stocks. The only sector i make huge money is Textile,it is my butter and bun. Super sales is best pick among them but price already crossed rs.250 level but by next quarter result it will be rs.325 level and a huge dividend of rs.5 on cards.

    About Super spinning, it was one of the best Textile stock from Coimbatore region and due to the high debt they were not able to produce good results but last quarter they back with a vengance. Co. gave + eps after 5 quarters and some of the debt have been paid selling one of the useless section. Promoters are go getters and started pin point each section of business hence result was positive. Since it face value is rs.1 it can go simply rs.20 level and a maximum level of rs.80 within 2 years time. Rs.80 is the all time high of super spinning.

    Waiting for your next calls...


  14. Hi Rajeev,
    new to ur blog.
    Ur recommedations are SUPERB.
    whats ur view on Elgi equipmemnts, vijay shanthi builders, SE Investments, Sturdy industries, Usha martin education, concurrent infra(lot of buzz created by some boarders on moneycontrol)

  15. Hi Rajeev, for Sabero agro read sabero Organics Gujrat ltd ? This stock has rocketed non stop from rs 10 in apr09 to rs 75 now,its just an upward movement without pause.amazing.I never came across this in your blogs earlier ,which I have been following very regularly and benifiting from.

  16. Saturday, March 13, 2010
    Posted by VALUEPICK
    First of all,I am not a strong advocate of real estate sector companies mainly because of the difficulties involved in valuing such companies based on area of land bank it holds. Secondly, it is a highly interest rate sensitive sector and I am not believing that we will get any positive support in near future from this aspect. But in any case , if I am forced to select a small cap company from this sector that will be Chennai based Vijay Shanthi buileders.It is one of the very few companies surviving now after came out with IPO in the first real estate sector boom which happened in 1992-93 period. Most of the real estate companies started at that time disappeared even without a trace. Vijay shanthi came out with an IPO way back in 1993 and still remaining as a known player in Tamilnadu because of their quality and timely delivery. Company has already completed atleast 50 projects so far and another 14 projects are under implementation. Vijay shanthi also have a small mineral water plant too (turnover of Rs.2.5 crore last year.).Being an old player ,company having land bank at reasonable price to be developed.
    Company has posted a NP of Rs.2.6 crore in March 2009 full year and declared 4% dividend even it was one of the most difficult year for the company and most of the other small players went into huge losses . Earlier in 2008 March company were posted a net profit of Rs.14 crore and an EPS of Rs.12 .Vijay Shanthi is expected to post better result in this year than last year. In 2009 promoters have taken 1862200 shares @ Ra.56 /- .Price of Vijayshanthi is currently ruling @ Rs.35/- which seems as the lowest risk small cap real estate stock ,mainly because of the company’s reputation and overall quality.

  17. It’s not as if they were born with their stock-picking skills. They learned–and are still learning–the hard way. Says BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) broker Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: "You learn the stock market by trial and error. Without making mistakes in the market, you will never be able to progress in it." What’s important is to spot the mistakes, learn from them, and move on.Five veterans of the Indian stock markets talk about their worst blunders, and the lessons they learned the hard way.There are great lessons and many little nuggets of investment wisdom–on market behaviour, valuation methods, portfolio management, investor mindsets–in their stories. Over to the gurus in their own words.

    1)Motilal Oswal Chairman and managing director, Motilal Oswal Securities
    In 1992-93,I bought shares of a glass company at Rs 1,600. The price crashed, and I exited when it was Rs 60. Why did I buy the stock? The outcry system was in vogue, and everyone on the floor used to share information, which was our idea of research. If I liked an idea,I just bought the scrip.
    We never invested with a time horizon. If the share price went up, we booked profits. We followed no investment strategy and did not bother with research. At one point, I had 125 scrips in my portfolio. Eventually, at the end of the year, I sold those that made a profit and held on to those that showed a loss. Obviously, the total return on my portfolio was not worth the effort put in.After that, I decided to prune my portfolio to 30 stocks–and booked more losses in the process. I decided to invest the money left with me wisely, balancing my portfolio with a long-term outlook. Now, I hold every stock for at least one year, and then, depending on the market situation, decide what to do with each.
    Lessons:Do your homework well.While choosing a stock, you could use either the top-down approach or the bottom-up approach.Don’t follow the herd.Don’t buy (or sell) just because everybody and his dog is buying (or selling). Research the com-pany as thoroughly as possible before deciding to buy or sell. Don’t buy in an overheated market and don’t sell when there is panic.
    2)Gul Tekchandani
    Chief investment officer, Sun F&C Asset Management
    Every time I blunder in the market, it’s because of excessive greed. When share prices move up and I hear favourable stories, I don’t think of selling and always hope to make more. I remember buying shares of a plastic furniture company at Rs 30. I had analysed the company and predicted the stock would go up to Rs 90. I was right: the price touched Rs 110. That’s when I started hearing stories of the company doing so well that the price would touch Rs 200. So I decided to hang on, in spite of knowing better. Today, the stock trades at Rs 6.
    Lessons:Discipline is the key.The market has a mind of its own, one which is quite likely to confuse investors. You cannot make money in the market by acting on market rumours. Listen to the stories, but do your own research–and do it thoroughly. Make your buy or sell decision based on your analysis of the company, not on what others have told you.So, if you have invested in a company for the long term, and the price falls in around three months, don’t change your strategy. The company’s fundamentals have not changed–it’s the market that’s volatile. In the long term, the fundamentals will reward you.Keep track of your investments. However, investing for the long term does not mean you forget about your holding. Stay alert, and monitor your stocks with a view to improving your returns. Keep an eye on the changing economy, because the fundamentals of a company are dynamic and change with the overall economy.

  18. 3)Darshan Mehta Chief executive officer, Anagram Stockbroking
    In the early nineties, the primary market was extremely active, and, like many retail investors, new issues made up a good chunk of my portfolio. Back then, pricing of public issues was regulated–and, invariably, conservative.So, even if you held on to allotted shares for no reason other than inertia, you made a notional profit. I was allotted 2,000 shares of Essar Shipping, which I held on to because their cost was significantly lower than the prevailing market price. My portfolio of 85-90 scrips was filled with the likes of Essar Shipping–neither led by a quality management nor the flavour of the season. I slept on them, and lost out–my portfolio depleted in value substantially.On top of that, the sheer size of my portfolio made it impossible for me to track even those companies in which I was invested. One fine day, I gave the list of my holdings–a whole lot of them worthless–to my broker, and asked him to sell it at whatever price he got. But the damage had been done.
    Lessons:Maintain a lean portfolio. Don’t grow too big for your boots. There’s no point in having a portfolio of 90 stocks if you cannot track them. If diversification is what you seek, you can achieve the objective with just 10 stocks. What matters is not how many stocks you have in your portfolio, but what kind of stocks these are. Moreover, the fewer stocks in your portfolio, the easier it is to track them.Don’t lose sight of your initial objective. Invest with an objective in mind. Once that objective is met, look to exit unless there are very good reasons to stay invested. In rising markets, new issues ride on the coattails of the bullishness, and list at hefty premiums to their issue prices. But once the euphoria subsides, so does the share price. So, keep your options open.
    4)Parag Parikh Chairman, Parag Parikh Financial Advisory Services

    I believe the key to any good investment is discipline and the ability to control your emotions. Easier said than done. There have been times when I have given in to my emotions–and paid the price.We do portfolio management for clients. Once, we took money from investors when the market was bullish. Obviously, since the market was on a roll, the risk was higher–and so were the chances of going wrong. A disciplined approach warrants that I take money from clients when there are ample investment opportunities in the market, not when people are willing to give me money. I should have had the guts to tell them, "no, don’t give me your money now, I’ll tell you when to give it". But my emotions took over, and I didn’t.

    Lessons:Don’t get in at peaks. Stock markets are not always the barometer of the economy, or even of a company. With globalisation and hot fund flows, they have become glorified casinos and don’t always reflect the true worth of its constituents. Hence, always invest for the long term and avoid short-term momentum plays. Bear in mind that momentum works both ways: you could crash as easily as you soar.Don’t speculate.If you buy today and sell tomorrow, you’re not investing–you’re trading. And that is one dangerous proposition. If you don’t understand technicals or are not clued in to the market grapevine, the odds are stacked against you. Be flexible with your investment mix. Don’t hold stocks for the sake of holding equities. Sometimes, it’s better to hold cash or debt to maximise returns. Your investment mix should reflect your perception of the market

  19. 5)Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
    Broker, Bombay Stock Exchange

    When I am convinced about a story, I tend to go overboard–and over-invest. At times, I have ended up investing a lot of money in illiquid stocks, which is obviously difficult to manage. It’s like putting all your eggs in one basket.In the stock markets, both in India and elsewhere, people tend to invest only when there is a wave of euphoria sweeping the markets. It’s a general tendency to act on the belief that one should not be left behind in a booming market, which is a flawed argument.

    Lessons:Don’t be overstretched in a stock. Even if you have hit on a great idea, review your allocations in a particular stock periodically. Ideally, you should not invest more than 15 per cent of your portfolio in one stock. Overexposure can be counter-productive, more so if a stock is illiquid.

  20. Nirash, Thanks for posting all these msgs regarding different experience shared by these investors. Excellent articles. Please keep it up. I would appreciate if you could email at hassanladha@gmail.com the source of these articles. thanks again

  21. Dear has2008

    source of information is avialable at money.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?86930

  22. Astro,
    I track Gandhimati App since long but never able to recomend it here.
    One of my friend took a huge stake 1 year back below 10 and made a killing in it...he is alomst out from the counter but maybe holding on with FREE shares.....he is still bullish on the stock but I have seen Gandhimati App at below 10 and now at 80,I would not like to recomend it here....But I don't say that it cannot go up...but I am afraid of recomending it now....

  23. Shiju,
    I do not track both of them so no view...

  24. Kapil,
    Hitech Gears,Lumax Ind,Super Sales,Super Spinning , India Glycols(Bharatia gr /viz Jubiliant Orga gr) are such stocks if hold for 2 yrs or more will give fentestic return...

  25. ramesh,
    I like Sturdy Ind... no view on others as I do not track them...

  26. nirash,
    U r doing a good job while pasting my replies too same queries and thus making mhy work less....I thanks you for that....keep doing that..

  27. Hi Nirash, thanks for the helpful postings. I like what mr. Rakesh said ""You learn the stock market by trial and error. Without making mistakes in the market, you will never be able to progress in it."". I am happy to say that i made lot of mistakes in the past and now no mistakes and money coming from front,left, right and back side...

    May be many dont believe in 2008 when everyone makes money i was crying like mad dog..wherever i put i lost money due to the wrong movement...

    now iam a complete different person...

    I advise everyone to read Rakeshji'w wordings at least 10 times in one week...so that it implied into our head..

    Thanks Rajeev for the advise..i will stick to u..

  28. hi rajeev

    took exposure in vijay shanthi , hi-tech,gmr and lt foods.do you track NELCO , A TATA group company supplying defence equipment .. looks intresting to me.. and by the way have you seen Money matters by any chance.. its firing on all cylinders.. thanks for your recoomendation. i entered on your advice when it was 170 about a month ago .. its already 430.


  29. Rajiv ji
    any idea or sujjeson about la-opela and aplab
    both are good scrip but not perform the market

  30. kapil the great
    i think we both are member of another rajiv ji old group.we miss Rajiv ji and chanish ji guidence from last 2 year.thanks to rajiv ji this blog in which we get valueable idea and sujjeson of rajiv ji

  31. Hi Rajeev,

    Wanted to know your views on Spice Mobiles. You had replied to Nirash's post once in Dec '09 saying that you do not track it.

    Don't you think that cell phone market is one that might have a very bright future. With the tariff wars, all operators bringing down the rates to dirt cheap levels. Ads of Karbon, Spice, Micromax etc are shown more often than not during the IPL matches. And also, Spice (the only company listed) has released models that really match up to the features provided by warhorses like Nokia etc. Don't know much about the quality of those phones though.

    I want to know your views or reasons for not being interested in this market so that I can understand the various ways/angles to look at the market. I am still an amateur.


  32. Dear Rajeev,

    I had asked your opinion on the below message but wasnt lucky..Well trying my luck again

    "BTW Rajeev I guess i shudnt be asking you this but do you see any particular reason why PSL is under performing so much and why it is falling every day ??"

  33. Mitz,
    Market sometimes takes more time to understand the value....that is not in our hand...

  34. Dear Rajeev,

    Tnx for your views. Last nine months have been a real test of my patience. None of my stocks have moved despite so many others having shot up by leaps and bounds.

    Kept wondering where i was going wrong. The more I researched the stocks that i held, the more value i found in them and yet they just refused to budge.

    Thats why i thought of asking your opinion.

    Thanks a ton for your reply

  35. Sumit,
    The models for cell is very big market and I agree with that and it is going to grow much bigger.But with so much of cheap models imported in India, means from China, Indonasia etc it is hard to keep a track on such things.That is the reason I do not track this sector.....

  36. Hi Rajeev,
    Do you track Nakoda textiles and Patels airtemp?

  37. Hi Mitz,

    PSl will post forex loss this year. I think this could be the reason this scrip is not moving. Unfortunately I also have a large qty of this scrip so we both are in the same situation as far as PSL is concern.

  38. ravi,
    Happy to notes that you bot Money Matters and it is at 430 which one reader 'Barat' discussed with me, I don't know where he is gone now a days....When we talked about Money Matters it was just 110...so it is 430 from 110...almost 4 times return within a year...Yes, Nelco looks good in defence sector and as coming from Tata Gr....But it is for LT...its shows very irrational results...one qr big positive and next qr big loss...will take time to mature...

  39. ashok,
    La Opala and Aplab I do not track as of now so no view....

  40. Hi Rajeev ji ,Nice to have your indepth analysis .Anything which is good for LONG TERM may look cheap dirt right now ? Thanks in advance .

    Vakharia M J

  41. Rajeev,
    Just needed you comment on what is happening at indage vintners? is there a chance of a Satyam kind of takeover?

  42. great again aegis 15% up today
    keep it up

  43. Hi Rajeev,

    You are doing a great work for comonnon peoplr like me even after fulfilling your personal commitments. I just wanted to know about SRF and Apar. Since long we haven't discussed about them both. Why aren't they showing strength. Apar has started moving but SRF is stand still. What do you think should be the reason.

  44. Dear Has2008,

    How do you know that PSL will post forex loss this year ?? You seem to have some inside info so can you please share more info on PSL.
    Tnx in advance

  45. Rajeev Desai said...

    Dear Mitz,
    I have been reading many negative notes on PSL Ltd recently from various forums and mails but I am confident about my pick.....PSL is bound to flourish....
    August 12, 2009 9:32 PM
    Mitzzzzzz said...

    Negative news on PSl. Can you please direct me to some of these forums. Thats because whom ever i have spoken to on moneycontrol seem to take a liking for this stock.

    Thanks in advance
    August 12, 2009 9:40 PM
    Rajeev Desai said...

    Mitz, this is what I got.....
    PSL Limited: Inefficient Management
    BSE 526801

    After a recent inter-action with analysts, the consensus view is the management at PSL Limited, is inefficient, backward looking and unable to foresee problems.

    This is apparent from Q4 FY09 numbers:

    While Revenues showed a quantum jump, net margins declined to roughly 1 per cent making building pipes another trading type of a business with no downward protection for any business exigencies or shaky trading conditions.

    The management cast the blame for a poor Q4 on currency losses, the INR Vs Dollar cross and huge rise in Steel costs, suggesting that it built steel sheet inventories at the highest possible point in time.

    The management has been unable to spell a clear vision for its Sharjah operations where orders are soft, as also the newly commissioned pipe mill in the USA. Plans for China are unknown as yet.

    The corporate carries a sizeable debt of Rs 1000 crore on a Equity of Rs 42 crore.

    The Debt is now to be swapped with Equity through a Rs 300 crore QIP which could raise Equity to over Rs 50 crore, another massive dilution.

    If current trends persist, PSL FY10 PAT could fall to Rs 60 crore on an even higher Revenue base, with EPS post dilution dropping down to Rs 10-12 from the present Rs 20 per share.

    The share can easily halve down from here over the next six months, and investors should seek better stocks to invest in. A clear thumbs down for the management.
    August 12, 2009 10:23 PM

  46. Dear Nirash,

    Tnx for posting back the old message of rajeev.