Emerging SHANKAR SHARMA, vice-chairman and joint managing director, First Global, tells Rajesh Bhayani that while markets may correct by 15-20 per cent after the Budget, they will rebound and reach previous highs in the next 18 months. Excerpts: SHANKAR SHARMA VC & Joint MD, First Global
‘In general, small investors don’t make money from equities’
The Nifty has been going through a period of consolidation. Where do you see it in the near term?
Broadly, the market is looking good till at least the Budget. If there are some retrograde moves in the Budget, it can spoil the mood and there could be a correction of even 15-20 per cent.
Small- and mid-cap stocks have been rising recently. In the past, retail investors in these stocks have burnt their fingers. Do you think small investors have become smarter this time?
Once the market enters into a correction mode, smalland mid-cap stocks will fall just as fast as they have risen. And, the fall could also be on low volumes. Investors who do not book profit may get stuck.
How will the market perform in 2010?
The market will bounce back after the postBudget correction. The reason is India’s strong fundamentals. Last year’s crisis was a stress test in which India emerged much stronger. In 2010, the equity market will continue to give positive returns. In the next 18 months, the market may reach previous highs. ( Can anyone believe this?SS was bearish all the time and now he has taken complete U turn.I have posted his chat sometimes back where he said bearish more then 1o times...I know people says that all has freedom to speak but that doesn't give them liberty to speak anything he wish when a person comes in wiremedia and business paper ,he has certian reponsibilites towards his followers )
Given that equity penetration among retail investors is low, do you think there should be more efforts to expand the equity cult?
Retail investors should remain careful about equities. One of the important reasons why India was less affected in the crash was because of high holdings by promoters and foreign institutional investors. Retail investors own hardly 10 per cent of listed companies. Hence, erosion in their wealth was also lower. But it is said that equities give better returns in the long term.
But, small investors, in general, don’t make money from equities. A very few make big money and their success stories are spread to lure others. A large majority don’t have the expertise to do research and lose. There are very few who can do research and take the huge risk to make money in stock markets. If equity is not attractive for small investors, where should they invest?
Retail investors should put only 10 per cent of their money in equities and once this money becomes 30-40 per cent, they should book profits and bring down the equity portion. Real estate and gold are better alternatives. Within equities, auto and pharma sectors look good to me. Information technology is attractive, provided the rupee doesn’t strengthen further.
I would be very cautious when a big bear like ss turns bullish. Remember what happend when he turned bullish last time?
ReplyDeleteAlso on a lighter note, we also saw our own Rajeev bhai turning bearish only once. And the kind of upmove after that is what we are seeing today.
I would view this whole thing as the epitome to change of market sentiment rather than judging whether they are right or wrong.
thanks rajeev for all your hard work.
Dear Natraj,
ReplyDeleteDepends upon how one looks at things.
AS you have rightly pointed out ,I have proved wrong for the whole 2008 and hence one need to have his own vision and take for the market.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletehi RAJEEV, I always thought most of us know abt mr SHANKAR SHARMA and his shenanigans,keep up the good work as u r doing in picking value stocks most of which r bound to give good returns over long term riding through the market gyrations which r not in ur r our hands. good luck god bless u.bye for now.
ReplyDeleteDear rajeev,
ReplyDeleteI ment to say when the last bull gets scared that is the time to buy and vice versa. you were very good with your picks. Dont worry on that front.
Dear Natraj,
ReplyDeleteWhat I mean to say was,I also went wrong.
That is fact and that remains.
I have also my bad calls.I have also erred.
No one should follow blindly.One needs to have his/her own vision.But somehow, I am very positive in nature.I always try to look the brighter side on anything and I always remains optimistic.
I dislike skepticism.I never like to remain in a Limbo.
I take firm decisions and always stick to that view untill I am not convinced that it is wrong.Once I take decision that becomes final...and I think that much confidence one needs to have to be successful...
Nothing wrong about what you write.
Rajeevji, patel airtemp is rocking!!!!!
ReplyDeleteSS has either officially lost his mind by coming up with such a reverse statement in media or he is an amateur investment advicer.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, there is one more named Tulsian because of whom i lost some money investing in Kernex when i was amateur. I am now really carefull and i follow, analyze and do my due diligence for the stocks suggested by Rajeev. 95% of times,i have had high benefits out of it. Thanks Rajeev for really inducing me into the market world.
Dear Rajeev
ReplyDeleteWhat can be the impact of Regulating US Banks on inflows in India? Is this a big negative. Will it in anyway dry the big US inflows in India.
Regards
Amit
Hi Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteIn the ongoing correction , mid and small caps will get washed away, and we will get new gems.
In one of your posts i read you said L & T is the stock of decade.
Should i buy it as an opportunity in today's downfall, or further downside expected?
Also can you pls advise some good large caps, that i shud watch to accumulate in this correction? wud be grate ful of you.
Amit,
ReplyDeleteI don't think there can be any impact on any regulations imposed on Bank in USA.
Money will flow where the growth is...remember this simple equation, always....
OM,
ReplyDeleteThis is not a massacre.This happens every now and then.
Midcaps and smallcaps will bounce back.They wentup fast and hence the correction.
Don't get scared.
Seimens, ABB,Alsthom, Sesa Goa,BEML,Dredging Corp,BHEL,Kalyani Forge, NTPC, Nevilly Lignite,Essar Oil, IFCI, IDBI,BPCL,HPCL,OIL, OIL, Petronet LNG, GSPL,POwer Grid,NHPC,MRPL,Gail etc are few where one can never go wrong...
Dear Mr Rajeev
ReplyDeleteThis Article appeared on 21/01/10 in financial chroncial, iam very
much impresed with your Srei Infra
one of you favourite stock
Srei to pick up 30% in Bhaskar Solar for Rs 5,000 cr
Srei Infrastructure Finance is close to picking up between 15 and 30 per cent stakes in Bhaskar Silicon, which is putting up the world`s first and the largest integrated Solar Power Plant and India`s first Polysilicon-Solar Plant in Haldia, West Bengal with a capital outlay of Rs 5000 crore.
Earlier, the ¤375 million Centrotherm Photovoltaics, one of the world’s leading providers of technology and services for the photovoltaics industry, and Perseus LLC, the Washington-headquartered merchant bank and private equity fund management company (which manages seven investment funds with capital commitments totalling nearly billion and co-manages a 9 million fund), had agreed to pick up significant stakes in the company.
Confirming the developments, Srei’s vice-chairman and managing director Hemant Kanoria told Financial Chronicle, “Yes we are close to picking up substantial stakes in Bhaskar Silicon, with power being one of the thrust areas for the group. We may take up to 30 per cent stakes but under no circumstances it will be less than 15 per cent.”
Refusing to divulge the exact value of their equity infusion, Kanoria said, “We will have both equity and debt exposures into the company.”
Earlier, the company had announced that nearly Rs 1,500 crore would come as equity while the rest would come as debt.
It may be mentioned that Srei Infrastructure Finance and Bhaskar Silicon had already participated in a consortium called India Power Corporation (IPCL) to pick up a controlling 57.17 per cent stake in power utility DPSC.
Srei’s power arm already runs two 35mw wind power units in Karnataka and Gujrat and waiting for the “right opportune moment to grow-organically and inorganically”, said Kanoria. “We have sufficient reserves and sufficient line of credit to finance our expansions on the power front.
nirash,
ReplyDeleteThat is great and big news for Srie Infra .
Sometimes when I gives a call on any stock, there seems to be nothing in it on first look.Sometimes my intution tell me that this Co will/can do wonders if things falls in place rightly.
They have also stake in Quipppo and now they are going in for Solar and big investment taking place from them.
Looking much better then Moser Baer , according to me.
Dhiraj wrote that Patel Airtemp is firing all cylinders.It was 126 up from 60 when I wrote about it.
All large caps were midcaps in past and one should always remember that.....